What are the odds? - Alchemist Case Style 8)

[CherryblueSky]

Apparently, I have some pretty crappy luck. crying

# of cases: 100
Contents:
1 x Formula 2: Norman
1 x Formula 3: BroMance
2 x Formula 4: Silly Candy Horns
2 x Formula 4: Uni Candy Horn
1 x Formula 4: Wicked Loud Horn
1 x Formula 5: BathMan
1 x Formula 5: Dual Candy Horns
1 x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion B
4 x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion C
7 x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion D
3 x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion F
2 x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion A
3 x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion B
2 x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion C
1 x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion D
3 x Formula 6: Arrow Candy Horns
3 x Formula 6: Hooked Candy Horns
1 x Formula 6: Sasha Companion
3 x Formula 6: Blue and Silver Short Keido Wig
2 x Formula 6: Jade and Black Short Keido Wig
5 x Formula 6: White and Gold Short Keido Wig
1 x Formula 6: WoMan
1 x Formula 7: Pointy Candy Horns
2 x Formula 7: Liam Companion
1 x Formula 7: Sam Companion
2 x Formula 7: Black and Red Long Keido Wig
1 x Formula 7: Gold and Black Long Keido Wig
2 x Formula 7: White and Navy Long Keido Wig
1 x Formula 7: Pokeman
4 x Formula 8: Long Candy Horns
1 x Formula 8: Gardener's Blonde Twin Curls
1 x Formula 8: Gardener's Brown Twin Curls
2 x Formula 8: Gardener's Red Twin Curls
1 x Formula 8: Nicolae Companion
1 x Formula 8: Rainbow Pixie Wings
1 x Formula 8: Space Meow
1 x Formula 9: Ian Companion
1 x Formula 9: Lace Meow
1 x Formula 9: O'Manan
1 x Formula 9: Aquamarine Porridge Locks
3 x Formula 9: Violet Porridge Locks
5 x Formula 9: Rose Porridge Locks
5 x Formula 9: Radiant Heart Headband
2 x Formula 9: T-1011 Cyborg Endo Skeleton
1 x Formula 10: Aurora Kitten Star
1 x Formula 10: Butter
2 x Formula 10: Cream
3 x Formula 10: Erebus' Moon
1 x Formula 10: Glacemella
1 x Formula 10: Lunarian's Mint Bao
1 x Formula 10: Lunarian's Pink Bao

[tinklR]

Here are the ones that i've gotten:

Formula 3: MANtis Sr
Formula 4: Uni Candy Horn
Formula 6: Jade and Black Short Keido Wig
Formula 7: Black and Red Long Keido Wig
Formula 7: Jagged Candy Horns
Formula 8: Rainbow Pixie Wings
Formula 8: Gardener's Brown Twin Curls
Formula 8: Gardener's Red Twin Curls x2
Formula 9: Rose Porridge Locks
Formula 9: Aquamarine Porridge Locks
Formula 9: Ian Companion
Formula 10: Lunarian's Pink Bao

[QuickerPickerUpper]

I opened 5 cases and got crap. : / Oh well.

Formula 10: Lunarian's Mint Bao
Formula 7: Liam Companion
Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion B
Formula 7: Black and Red Long Keido Wig
Formula 7: Gold and Black Long Keido Wig

[tinklR]

just opened 6

Formula 9: Ian Companion
Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion A
Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion E
Formula 6: White and Gold Short Keido Wig
Formula 6: WoMAN
Formula 10: Nice Suit for Work

[tinklR]

just opened up 30 cases

Formula 2: Norman
Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion C
Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion C
Formula 10: Nice Suit for Work
Formula 4: Uni Candy Horn
Formula 4: Uni Candy Horn
Formula 7: Pointy Candy Horns
Formula 10: HARMony
Formula 8: Long Candy Horns
Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion E
Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion A
Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion C
Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion C
Formula 6: White and Gold Short Keido Wig
Formula 10: Erebus' Moon
Formula 10: Lunarian's Pink Bao
Formula 5: VitaMAN
Formula 9: Radiant Heart Headband
Formula 9: Radiant Heart Headband
Formula 8: Triple Candy Horns
Formula 6: Jade and Black Short Keido Wig
Formula 8: MANga-kun
Formula 9: Rose Porridge Locks
Formula 10: Butter
Formula 8: Space Meow
Formula 10: Minthamella
Formula 10: Gentleman
Formula 3: Mantis Sr
Formula 7: Low Candy Horns
Formula 3: BroMance

[E.Beth]

I opened one today and got a Formula 6: Sasha Companion. Wish I had gotten a different one but oh well, luck of the draw I guess. Back to collecting components

[Platonix]

Well, I just did something I regret. xd

I finished updating my thread on the probabilities when opening a base cache, for the first time in too long...and thought "what the heck" and decided to update this thread's total, since yourlocalhobo hasn't been able to.

It shouldn't be too bad, I told myself. It's just 12 pages, I told myself. Ugh.

But once I started, I just had to finish. Honor at stake and all that.

So, I now have compiled data from the 1,493 Alchemist's Cases reported in this thread. Wheee! gonk

So, what was the most common formula? It was an Imp Potion, right?

Actually, no. There were certainly a lot of them, but they seem worse than they are because there are twelve of them.

At 40 draws reported each, the most common formula is a three-way tie between the Black and Red Long Keido Wig, the Jade and Black Short Keido Wig, and the Radiant Heart Headband.

At second place, with 39 draws, is the T-1011 Cyborg Endo Skeleton.

With 38 draws each, third place is a two-way tie between the Blue and Silver Short Keido Wig...and Floating Devil Imp Potion A. xp

The rarest formulas, with only 2 draws each, are Demonic Quest Inizio, Devilish Quest Inizio, Risen Quest Inizio, and... the Spiral Candy Horns? Buh?

So what's the probability of drawing an Inizio Formula? Any Inizio Formula?

Of the 1493 draws reported, 18 were Inizio formulas. That's one and a fifth percent.


So here's the full list, sorted first by formula level and then by draws.

5x Formula 1: Angelic Quest Inizio
4x Formula 1: Celestial Quest Inizio
3x Formula 1: Fallen Quest Inizio
2x Formula 1: Demonic Quest Inizio
2x Formula 1: Devilish Quest Inizio
2x Formula 1: Risen Quest Inizio

33x Formula 2: Norman

18x Formula 3: MANtis Sr
13x Formula 3: BroMANce

25x Formula 4: MANnequin
19x Formula 4: Uni Candy Horn
12x Formula 4: Silly Candy Horns
8x Formula 4: Wicked Loud Horn

38x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion A
31x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion C
29x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion C
28x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion D
27x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion E
26x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion D
23x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion B
23x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion F
23x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion E
22x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion B
19x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion A
18x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion F
15x Formula 5: VitaMAN
12x Formula 5: Single Candy Horn
10x Formula 5: BathMan
8x Formula 5: Dual Candy Horns

40x Formula 6: Jade and Black Short Keido Wig
38x Formula 6: Blue and Silver Short Keido Wig
36x Formula 6: White and Gold Short Keido Wig
20x Formula 6: Arrow Candy Horns
16x Formula 6: WoMAN
12x Formula 6: Hooked Candy Horns
11x Formula 6: Ruby Companion
8x Formula 6: Sasha Companion
7x Formula 6: Forked Candy Horns

40x Formula 7: Black and Red Long Keido Wig
36x Formula 7: Gold and Black Long Keido Wig
28x Formula 7: White and Navy Long Keido Wig
19x Formula 7: Low Candy Horns
19x Formula 7: Pointy Candy Horns
17x Formula 7: MANthro
17x Formula 7: Pokeman
15x Formula 7: Grace Meow
15x Formula 7: Jagged Candy Horns
11x Formula 7: Liam Companion
8x Formula 7: Sam Companion
7x Formula 7: Tall Candy Horns

35x Formula 8: Gardener's Red Twin Curls
24x Formula 8: Rainbow Pixie Wings
22x Formula 8: Gardener's Brown Twin Curls
21x Formula 8: Triple Candy Horns
19x Formula 8: Gardener's Blonde Twin Curls
17x Formula 8: Space Meow
14x Formula 8: Edmund Companion
13x Formula 8: Long Candy Horns
13x Formula 8: MANga-kun
13x Formula 8: MANinthemoon
11x Formula 8: Nicolae Companion

40x Formula 9: Radiant Heart Headband
39x Formula 9: T-1011 Cyborg Endo Skeleton
31x Formula 9: Violet Porridge Locks
28x Formula 9: Rose Porridge Locks
27x Formula 9: Aquamarine Porridge Locks
15x Formula 9: Lace Meow
8x Formula 9: Ian Companion
6x Formula 9: Curled Candy Horns
6x Formula 9: Louie Companion
5x Formula 9: Moira Companion
3x Formula 9: O'Manan
2x Formula 9: Spiral Candy Horns

24x Formula 10: Lunarian's Pink Bao
22x Formula 10: Lunarian's Mint Bao
16x Formula 10: Lunarian's Blonde Bao
15x Formula 10: Erebus' Moon
15x Formula 10: Minthamella
11x Formula 10: Glacemella
8x Formula 10: Case Meow
8x Formula 10: Butter
7x Formula 10: Custard
6x Formula 10: Cream
6x Formula 10: HARMony
6x Formula 10: Aurora Kitten Star
5x Formula 10: Cat Faces
5x Formula 10: Gentleman
5x Formula 10: Risky Angels
5x Formula 10: Nice Suit for Work


And now, I have been sitting in this chair for far too long. gonk I'm outta here.

[Zzyli]

Platonix

Well... you just saved me doing the same thing. I've been contemplating sorting out the data for this thread, but hadn't actually sat down to do it.

I'm pleased to know that the draw of Inizios seems to support the 1/100 number which I've been giving people. Isn't it nice when your hypothesis based on anecdotal evidence proves to be correct? biggrin I'm also glad that I don't want Spiral Candy Horns.

[Platonix]

I just crafted and opened an Alchemist's Case.

The T-1011 Cyborg Endo Skeleton is now tied for first place with the other three.

emotion_facepalm

[Misfortuned Checkmate]

Opened one and got a White and Navy Long Keido Wig. emo

[Waltzkrieg]

Platonix, you're a mensch.

1. BroMANce
2. Gardener's Brown Twin Curls
3. Aquamarine Porridge Locks
4. Sasha Companion
5. Lunarian's Blonde Bao

[Platonix]

For what it's worth, those last few posts bring this thread's total to 1500 Cases opened. I'm not going to bother posting full updated totals for everything, but I thought I'd toss some fun facts your way.

Of the 1500 Cases in this thread,
446 (or nearly 30%) contained Wigs;
307 (or just over 20%) contained Floating Imp Potions;
198 (or about 13%) contained MAN items;
192 (or nearly 13%) contained Candy Horns;
87 (or nearly 6%) contained Cats;
83 (or about 5½%) contained NPC Companions;
18 (or 1.2%) contained Wing Quests;
and 169 (or a bit over 11%) contained items that don't fit into any of those categories.

Wicked Loud Horn
Rainbow Pixie Wings
Radiant Heart Headband
T-1011 Cyborg Endo Skeleton
Erebus' Moon
Minthamella
Glacemella
HARMony
Nice Suit For Work
Risky Angels

[Platonix]

I don't bother posting my own Cache draws in my Cache Probabilities thread, but this thread moves a lot slower, so let it be hereby known that I just got BathMan.

I'm overjoyed of course.

[Kudrelur]

My first one
I got: Formula 6: White and Gold Short Keido Wig

[CeciliaxRoses]

just opened my verry first 2 alchemist's cases EVER

#1 = Formula 6: WoMan
#2 = Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion C

time to start collecting shizz again -_-
better luck next time i hope