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The Missing Piece of the Oscars Diversity Conversation
First, my annual caveat: Several years back, I not only predicted that Avatar would win Best Picture over The Hurt Locker, I wrote an entire piece explaining why it was essentially inconceivable that the latter would prevail. (Rarely, if ever, have I been so happy to be so wrong.) So take these predictions with that rather large helping of salt in mind.
At the same time, over the past two years Ive gone 12 for 12 in the major categories and 17 out of 20 in my overall picks. So perhaps Ive finally learned something. (You can find those predictions here and here.) As always, I do not encourage readers to wager based on my picks. But if anyone out there should just happen to do well as a result, Ill gladly make my mailing address available for any gratuity deemed appropriate.
Finally, as before, Im only going 10 deep among the categories, so those of you seeking picks for foreign language film, docs, and in the technical categories will have to look elsewhere. (Scratch that: Son of Saul is a lock for foreign film; trust me.) Onward
Best Picture
Every year theres a categoryusually one of the male acting categories, which tells you pretty much everything you need to know about Hollywood egalitarianismwhere there are so many worthy contenders that it seems almost cruel to limit the field to five nominees. Last year, it was best actor. This year, its best supporting actor. This is in large part due to the presence of three male-heavy ensemble films in Spotlight, The Big Short, and The Martian. For the first, it was Ruffalo who nabbed a nod, although manymyself includedwould have given it to co-star Michael Keaton. (In a weaker year, one mightve made a case for Liev Schreiber or John Slattery as well.) Bale was nominated for The Big Short, but I would have opted to honor Steve Carell. And Chiwetel Ejiofor was probably the most worthy of several candidates from The Martian. But the one true snub in the category this yearespecially given the awards second consecutive year of utter whitenessis Idris Elba, whose indelible warlord was utterly central to Beasts of No Nation.
As it is, this looks like a two-man race between Stallone and Rylance, with the former a strong sentimental favorite. Its hard to feel terribly bad about this. Creed was an unexpectedly good film, and Stallone unexpectedly good in it, and while not quite on the level of Star Wars nostalgia, Rocky nostalgia is nonetheless a powerful Force. Still, Stallone wasnt that good, and I think a nomination is reward enough for his work, especially in such a strong year. Im a little underwhelmed by Rylance as a nominee, too, though for very different reasons. He is an immense talentif you havent seen his Cromwell in the BBCs Wolf Hall adaptation, you should make haste to amend the oversightand he was by far the best thing in Bridge of Spies. Perhaps even to a fault: At times he seemed to be inhabiting a different movie altogetheran impression that was no doubt reinforced by his long absence from the second half of the film. My choice for the award would be Tom Hardy, who gave what I thought was the most clearly brilliant performance of The Revenant. For all his trials, Leo was always Leo; Hardy, by contrast, vanished so deeply into his role that it took me a few minutes even to be sure that was him.
That said, we come back to the heavyweight favorite, Stallone, and the underdog, Rylance. I know how this would end if this were a Rocky movie . but its probably not.
Who will win: Sylvester Stallone
Who ought to win: Tom Hardy
Who was nominated but shouldnt have been: Christian Bale, Mark Ruffalo, Mark Rylance
Who wasnt nominated but should have been: Steve Carell (The Big Short), Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation), Michael Keaton (Spotlight)
Best Supporting Actress
In a world in which the Academy were less amenable to bullying lobbying by the studios, this would all be moot. Vikander and Mara would be up in the big leagues where they belong, rounding out a historically strong best actress category, and leaving space for some genuine supporting performances down here: say, Kristen Stewart for Clouds of Sils Maria, Helen Mirren for Trumbo, and yes, perhaps Vikander herself for her excellent turn in Ex Machina. Instead, we have this frustrating fruit basket of apples and oranges. Vikander is almost certainly the favoriteand deserves to be, if one forgives the category fraudwith Mara and Winslet as roughly equidistant dark horses. What a mess.
Who will win: Alicia Vikander
Who ought to win: Alicia Vikander
Who was nominated but shouldnt have been: Jennifer Jason Leigh
Who wasnt nominated but should have been: Kristen Stewart (Clouds of Sils Maria)
Best Original Screenplay
What will win: The Big Short
What ought to win: The Big Short
What was nominated but shouldnt have been: Nothing
What wasnt nominated but should have been: Nothing
Best Cinematography
20th Century Fox
Nominees: Roger Deakins (Sicario), Edward Lachman (Carol), Emmanuel Lubezki (The Revenant), Robert Richardson (The Hateful Eight), John Seale (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Another terrifically strong category this year. Its nice to see Edward Lachmans lovely lensmanship for Carol celebrated; Robert Richardsons 70mm artistry was just about the only thing I didnt hate about The Hateful Eight; and anyone who didnt get a kick out of then-72-year-old John Seales riotously kinetic work on Mad Max probably doesnt get a kick out of much at all. (If you must pick an upset, Id go with Seale.)
But finally we come to the award that it is very, very difficult to dispute belongs to The Revenant. Whatever its other shortcomings, the film is a visual masterpiece, bleak and beautiful in equal parts. If he winsand its hard for me to imagine he wontthis will mark Emmanuel Lubezkis unprecedented third straight Oscar for cinematography, a record unlikely to be broken in our lifetimes.
The flip side of that coin, alas, is that this marks Roger Deakinss astonishing 13th nomination in the category, and will in all likelihood result in his shocking 13th straight loss. After a tremendous first hour, Sicario lost its narrative path somewhat. But it was never less than ravishing to look at. Along with Lubezki, Deakins is one of the great cinematographers of our time, and his failure to take home a statuette to date is an ongoing source of amazement and dismay. Never fear, however: He will almost certainly be back next year, and the year after that.
Who will win: Emmanuel Lubezki
Who ought to win: Emmanuel Lubezki
Who was nominated but shouldnt have been: No one
Who wasnt nominated but should have been: No one
Best Animated Feature
Dixney / Pixar
Nominees: Anomalisa, Boy & the World, Inside Out, When Marnie Was There, Shaun the Sheep
The Academy went unexpectedly arty this year, passing on two big hitsPixars The Good Dinosaur (rightly so) and 20th Century Foxs The Peanuts Moviein favor of the Japanese anime When Marnie Was There, Brazils Boy & the World, and Charlie Kaufmans latest marvelous oddity, Anomalisa. And good for them. I feel a little bad for The Peanuts Movie, but it has $245 million in global box office to console it. And its nice to bring attention to a few smaller films.
The upshot of this, of course, is thatas much Id be tickled by a subversive victory for AnomalisaPixars other movie this year, Pete Docters loving head trip Inside Out, is going to win handily. Take it to the bank.
What will win: Inside Out
What should win: Inside Out
What was nominated but shouldnt have been: None
What wasnt nominated but should have been: None
http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2016/02/my-2016-oscar-predictions/471027/
