****PLAN YOUR TRADE AND TRADE YOUR PLAN****
Key dates: 5/14- GOOGL IO conference 5/15- CPI 5/21- MSFT build conference 5/22- NVDA Earnings
Ideas for Monday:
- favorite idea: SLV bull calls further out July (expecting 3-4 weeks of basing before next breakout). Enter calls (diagonal). Fundamentals: Energy transition, rate cuts, economic turmoil hedge, and current underinvestment in mining trade. Silver squeeze potential, current demand growth has supply lasting about 2 years, with additional fund flows squeezing this to potentially 1 year. There is much more room to run, even to 48. I believe this is a good squeeze target and still early in the trend due to relatively low volume. I will be DCAing into this position.
- BPS: XLF and GLD
Tuesday:
-BPS or butterfly NEM (gold miner on breakout)
Thursday: join whichever direction market picks for NVDAÂ and KWEB
If bullish: -bull calls AMD August exp, believe 145 was the bottom. 3 weeks additional drawdown possible before stop. Targets are 170 & 205. Past 165 quick positive squeeze towards 170 on 5/2
-bull put spreads SMH July exp
Bearish: bear call spreads, no put spreads as volatility would likely be too high.
Events of the week 5/20: NVDA and PDD earnings, fedspeak, jobless claims, inflation expectations, durable goods
Long ideas (4/21):
-AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
5/15: VRT- Core to data center power and cooling. Like a leveraged NVDA bet.
5/21: FCX- World’s largest gold miner, major molybdenum producer (many industrial uses including its prevalence in almost all sources of renewable energy, economic expansion and rate cut beneficiary), major copper producer
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral)
-Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari
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Notes:
-Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive
-Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures)
-Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later.
-Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling
-cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing!
-Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
Gamma Risk rolled 1 4-sided dice:
3
Total: 3 (1-4)
