Welcome to Gaia! :: View User's Journal | Gaia Journals

INTRODUCTION TO PUBLIC OPINION (Week 2)
Characteristics of public opinion: looks at the opinions of adults; perceptions, opinions, on matters relative to government. Also ask questions dealing with social issues (church attendance)
• Majority opinion- what attitude do most people hold what do they think? Also can be a plurality
• Form of distribution- unimodal, bimodal, even distribution, etc. Are people united in their attitudes, or are they divided? Where does public fall in their distribution? We have unimodal distribution in America, meaning we have a limited number of very liberal or very conservative people and a large portion of people considering themselves to be moderate. Having this model means having public policy that does not alienate a lot of people.
• Bimodal-having 2 large groups of people who have different opinions from one another. This is how the U.S. was during the Civil War. The abolitionists against the slave owners. This makes a country pull apart and become extremely divided. Iraq was considered to be this type of country just a few years ago.
• Intensity- do people really care about that issue this is where moral issues come into play (abortion, gay marriage = high intensity) (campaign finance, subsides = low)
• Stability- do people keep the same issue position, or does it change a lot stability depends on the type of issue. If you care a lot about an issue then you will most likely not change your opinion. You can see this with Party Identification, Religious denomination.
• Salience- can opinion last over time on particular issues. In 1991, Bush was popular due to the Gulf War victory, but in ’92 his popularity had declined due to the economy.
How public opinion can be reflected in public policy (Erikson and Tedin, American Public Opinion, Seventh Edition Pearson/Longman Publisher p.18-21):
• Rational-Voter Model (or Rational-Activist)- people vote on the basis of issues; problem of uninformed voters voters know a lot about policy issues, also have opinions about these issues. These people take time to learn more about the candidates and their positions. Then the person votes for the one with the closest ideology. 1) Knowledge 2) opinion 3) candidate research 4) vote. This model only works when the candidates have clear differences.
• 1964- Republican Barry Goldwater “Mr. Conservative” runs for President but loses in landslide to L. Johnson. Voters knew the clear differences and could make an easy decision.
• 1972- George McGovern, democratic liberal who vowed to end Vietnam and wanted national healthcare. Average citizen saw that Nixon was more moderate than McGovern and Nixon wins by wide margin.
•
• Political Parties Model- parties offer different platforms, people vote for the preferred platform; problem of party identification vote, and problem of uninformed voter People vote down the line for which party platform they agree with. Platforms are distinct; problem is that most voters are not that partisan
• Interest Groups Model- interest groups can serve as a linkage between the public and public officials National education association has become the most powerful interest group in the Democratic Party. This model works well if the group is large, powerful, successful, and has to take the position that most people want. The NRA also is powerful in affecting public policy
• Role Playing Model- public officials perceive themselves as delegates, enacting what the public wants into public policy; problem of trustees who vote what they believe is in the best interests of the public whoever you elect, do they really think “I care about what people want” but @ times, public is not well informed about the issues they are voting on.
• Sharing Model- officials are drawn from the community, and their own values and attitudes reflect those of their constituents; problem that officials have a higher socioeconomic status than average voter, and are more partisan candidates are embodiments of their constituents. They vote well because they are just like their constituents. Voters vote for those who are like them.
What is "Representation"? Book by Hanna Pitkin, The Concept of Representation. University of CA Press p.38-112:
• Formalistic- representative has been authorized to act, so anything they do is representing how is someone given political power? You follow the rules and follow the constitution.
• Descriptive Representation- composition of representatives reflects public's composition, such as in demographics is the representative just like the American people. Problem with many representative bodies is that they do not represent demographically their constituents. Many voters are less financially well off as their representative. .
• Symbolic Representation- the flag, speech praising heroes, the British King taking something and saying it represents everybody. No matter what your party ID is, the representative will try to showcase something that all Americans value.
• Representation as Acting For the represented- can be delegate or trustee this is most powerful and most revlent way to show representation. This looks at how the representative performs during his term and their behavior.
• Virtual Representation- there is a community of interest and sympathy in feelings and desires between representative and represented, though people may have no voting rights (American colonies in British empire) you don’t have any voting rights, but there is a group who does vote b/c they think that they are more intelligent.

Discuss representation from the standpoint of southern state legislatures (Drawn from Menifield and Shaffer's book that won the V.O. Key award for best southern politics book: Politics in the New South: Representation of African Americans in Southern State Legislatures State University of New York Press.
• Formalistic Representation- election to legislature, existence of Black Caucuses to what extent does the black caucus represent African Americans? Prior to 1967, there were 0 A.A. members of the legislature. 1 was elected until 1975, Robert Clark was first A.A. law maker. Benny Thompson is the only black representative for MS. Black Caucuses are a representative way for blacks to be in legislature and be fully represented.
• Description Representation- rising numbers of African American legislators, how close to population presence? How good of job does state legislature do in representing different demographics. In 1980, 8% of the legislature was A.A. but state population for blacks was 35%. In 2004, 24% of legislature was A.A. and the state population for blacks was 36%. Leaving a gap of 12%
• Georgia-11%
• South Carolina- 12%
• LA-10%
• Alabama-1%
• *Deep South states have much higher difference in gaps than mid-south states and in the north. *
• Power can also be seen as to whether A.A.’s are allowed high power committee positions after they are elected. MS, NC, AR, all have great ratios for giving powerful leadership positions to A.A.’s. South Carolina and Florida are the worst for giving powerful committee positions to A.A.’s. The republicans represent the state legislature for both of these states, a party with little attention to blacks.
• Mississippi State Senate and House- African American representation is down in MS Senate. Speaker of MS House-Bill McCoy appointed all democrats to chair committees. Blacks are over represented in the house.
• Symbolic Representation- Martin Luther King days, hate crimes, etc? provides symbols that A.A.’s have power in the south.
• Representation as Acting For the represented- roll call votes. Do they make a difference?
• 1)education measures- budget cuts and recession take place. Conservative Gov. Fordice is elected but state legislature is headed by democrats and the dem’s want to raise taxes to pay for education shortfall. Gov. vetoed the bill but the dem’s bonded together and overrode his veto.
o IHL Bond bill- Wanting to give more $ to libraries but gov. turned it down and the dems overrode it again with 2/3’s vote. Black caucus was virtually united when enacting these bills. A.A.’s were being represented well by the caucus.
• 2) Race Issues- Affirmative Action-wanted quotas in state jobs and construction. Fordice did not like AA so he vetoed it again. But it was overridden by dems, BC was good at getting support for AA.
o College Board- Gov. Fordice appoint 4 people to college board. All four are middle age white males from 3 largest universities in MS. These appointed officials must be approved by the State senate committee. Chair of this committee was a powerful A.A. and they put it on the table to kill it. Musgrove has these 4 people go in front of full committee with 5 repubs 5 BC members and 5 dems. He again gets shot down and comes up with a more diverse group of nominees. Black caucus really has substantive power in the state of MS.
• 3) Crime- BC continues to lose on bills dealing with crime. MS loves to be tough on crime and BC is more liberal. Repubs and white dems tend to team up for tougher bills on crime.
• Virtual Representation- white Democrats? Still offices in which AA’s still have not represented. Governor and President are two offices in which blacks have never achieved. BUT there have been white govs and presidents who have placed AA in powerful positions. Ruben Anderson and Fred Banks have been appointed to the State Supreme Court by Dem. Gov. Mavis. Both of which were re-elected. Dems do a good job of keeping IHL board a diverse group of race and genders. Musgrove was also important in appointing blacks to powerful positions. Dem. Gov. Zell Miller appointed blacks to powerful spots, giving them the power to run in state wide offices and win.
Discuss representation from the standpoint of southern politics elections over the past half century. See Shaffer's convention paper, your reading assignment for the first week of class.
• Solid Democratic South- nearly all-white electorate, ideologically inclusive Democrats. Southerners were democrats by a 2:1 margin. BUT these dems were fairly conservative. Even for Senators in the Deep South in the ‘70’s and 80’s, almost all of them were dems but were conservative or mod. Conservative or Liberal. Only Dale Bumpers from AR was considered Liberal.
• Modern two-party South- integrated electorate, liberal African American voters, ideologically diverse white voters, more liberal Democratic officeholders, conservative Republican officeholders. Now you have almost as many repubs. As you have dems. In more modern times, southern states are more repub on fed level. Now you see a much more decisive difference between repub. Officials and dems. Repubs are still considered very conservative BUT dems are leaning more to left and not so much in the center.

Book report:
Intro paragraph- Title, Author, ED, PUB, Page Numbers, Topics,
Chapter by chapter:
Findings-
Critiques- Pros and cons
Own words, tables and figures, 10 pages, writing and grammar

P0LITICAL POLLING TECHNIQUES (Weeks 3-4)
Historic Problems with Polls:
• 1) Biased Samples- 1936 Literary Digest poll example; does not represent important characteristics of the American people. Predicted that Landow would win against FDR in a landslide when the exact opposite happened. Compared to the general population, the poll focused on higher social economic statuses rather than the general populace.
• 2) Time Bound polls- 1948 Dewey-Truman race, 1980 Reagan landslide; when a poll is conducted at a certain time the results may be different because opinions change over time. In 1945, Truman came into office due to death of Roosevelt in 1948; Dewey steps in to oppose Truman for election. Polls had Dewey had it won but in that last month Truman steps it up by way of a whistle stop campaign. 1980: President Carter- Dissat. Reagan is seen as old, an actor, as well as too conservative. A close race poll was taken 1 week before a debate where Regan made a big impact. Not only that, carter was damaged by the 365th day anniversary of the hostage crisis.
• 3) Likely voter problems- Fordice 1991 nomination as GOP governor. Turnout for presidential elections are at best 50%. Mason Dixon poll: In 1991 Dem incumbent Mabus against Dowdy. 91% - Democratic primary. Representative Auditor – switcher Pete Johnson, Moderate. Then there was the conservative, Republican, party activist Kirk Fordice. 35% predicted for the Republican primary when in reality it was only 9%.
Sample Error Correlates:
• 1) Sample Size- larger samples produce smaller error; (Probability theory)
• 2) Homogeneity of Population- united populations produce smaller error;
• 3) Cluster Samples- produce about 20% higher error. Assumes that all samples are not necessarily chosen at random.
A chart for computing sample error is available here
PROS AND CONS OF SURVEY TYPES (Survey Types are: In-Person (longest running, high quality surveys), Telephone, Mail, and Mixed Methods)
In-person survey-- pros:
• 1) Observe and clear up R's confusion (Have any questions, not sure about the definition of a term, etc.)
• 2) Obtain objective information about R's (respondent) lifestyle (Ex: stating they make less than 20,000 dollars but clearly make more than that due to lifestyle.)
• 3) Visual Aids use (cards, pictures, physical thermometer, etc.)
• 4) Establish rapport? High response rate? (Not so much now than what it was back then.)
In-person survey-- cons:
• 1) Expensive (travel expenses)
• 2) Safety of interviewer
• 3) Interviewer fraud (Can’t necessarily keep tabs on interviewers.)
Telephone survey-- pros:
• 1) Quick
• 2) Cost effective
• 3) Centralized interviewing- no fraud (All in one room, monitored *for the most part*)
• 4) Interviewer safety
Telephone survey-- cons:
• 1) Excludes those without telephones or owning only cell phones (not sure cell phones are legal, not supposed to get in contact with those with cell phones)
• 2) No visual aids-- voice dependent
Mail survey-- pros:
• 1) Cheap
• 2) Use with specialized population (be sure that the population is particularly specialized.)
Mail survey-- cons:
• 1) Excludes illiterates
• 2) Can't control who answers survey
• 3) Can't control order of questions answered (Later questions read first might influence opinions on the earlier ones)
• 4) Slow
• 5) Incomplete forms
• 6) Low response rate? (Not necessarily a big issue now)
Web surveys: Lack of representation
(For further information about survey types, see Mail and Telephone Surveys: The Total Design Method by Don A. Dillman, John Wiley and Sons publisher.)
Sampling Techniques:
• 1) Multi-Stage Cluster Sample in personal surveys
• 2) Telephone Surveys sampling methods: telephone directory; 2-stage random digit dialing
• 3) Sampling within the household: multiple tables asking number of adults and of men; last birthday (over samples women)
Demographic Groups Under sampled in Telephone Surveys:
• 1) High School Dropouts (Feel slighted and this survey from college students)
• 2) Lower income (Basic idea as above)
• 3) African-Americans (Composite of high school dropout rate as well as lower income, making them less willing to take the survey.)
• 4) Men
• 5) Young (big, increasing problem due to cell phones rise)
• 6) Old
Weighing the Sample:
• 1) Weight by number of adults in household
• 2) Weight by inverse of number of different telephone numbers
• 3) Compare sample and census on demographics
• 4) Weight by under sampled groups, such as high school dropouts and men; compare sample and census
• 5) Repeat step 4 until obtain representative weighted sample
EXAMPLES OF MEASURING PUBLIC OPINION ON PUBLIC POLICY:
(From Survey Research for Public Administration, by David H. Folz, Sage Publishers)
• 1) Perceptions of local problems- No problem, Minor Problem, Major Problem; Most serious problem; Agree-disagree with problem statements
• 2) Quality of local services- Excellent, good, fair, poor
• 3) Policy preferences- oppose or favor policy, strongly or somewhat.
• 4) Funding priorities- spending too little, about right, too much on each policy
• 5) Tax hike backing- Specific increase for specific policy
• 6) Citizen usage satisfaction- Filter question, did they use service? Satisfied or dissatisfied with service, very or somewhat
Wording problems with survey items:
• 1) Loaded or leading questions
• 2) Double barreled- includes two separate questions (Linking questions together)
• 3) Too complex, double negative (Miss Poll abortion amendment)
• 4) Unbalanced alternatives (example: Blacks treated same as whites or worse)
• 5) Acquiescence bias (agreement bias)- especially on agree-disagree items
• 6) Sensitive items- use income categories
• 7) Social desirability- race items
Impact of polling on public policy or elections.
• First Mississippi polls are blasted by state officials unfamiliar with polling techniques. One accuses the university of being biased against the state legislature after release of results showing that Governor Winter is more popular than the state legislature. A white conservative Delta lawmaker expresses disbelief in any results showing public support for a tax increase, claims that any 12 Mississippians called at random would oppose a tax increase for any reason, then says that such a poll should exclude public school teachers.
• Governor Winter uses 1981 Mississippi Poll results showing public support for education reform to lobby legislators to enact his 1982 Education Reform Act. MSU Report on Poll appears on national TV's 20-20 program.
• After being cornered by reporters seeking a sensationalist headline, U.S. Senatorial candidate Haley Barbour blasts 1982 Mississippi Poll for allegedly being financed by the Stennis Institute of Government, named for his political opponent. State press covers news conference of Barbour's pollster, who claims that Barbour is tied with Stennis "among voters who have heard about both of the candidates," but admits that many voters have only heard of 35-year officeholder Senator John Stennis.
• The Mississippi Poll in 1984 six months before the election accurately predicts Republican Senator Thad Cochran's landslide re-election, as well as Reagan's easy victory.
• In 1986 when Governor Bill Allain blasts university presidents for seeking tax increase for higher education, university President directs publicly-funded university relations department to withhold MSU poll press release showing public support for a tax increase.
• Supporters of both U.S. Senatorial candidates Wayne Dowdy and Trent Lott in 1988 request MSU to conduct an objective, reputable poll on their contest. The poll, conducted two months before the election and right after a Lott media advertising blitz, ends up overestimating Lott's lead. Dowdy press secretary graciously contacts poll director and downplays poll results. Senator Lott after the election confirms that his own poll conducted at the same time yielded similar results to MSU poll.
• Speaker of the House requests results of 1992 MSU poll showing public support for a tax increase for education, rather than continued recession-caused budget cuts. He reportedly desires to use poll results to strengthen the backbones of legislators seeking to enact the tax increase over Governor Fordice's veto.
• MSU ceases releasing results of Mississippi Poll through University Relations, at the request of the poll director. Academic administrators' stress on research and publication downgrades this type of public service activity of faculty; budget cuts to higher education under Governor Musgrove reduces faculty time to devote to such efforts; poll director is also disillusioned with bias of media towards such liberal goals as focusing solely on public elementary and secondary education funding, and towards reporting poll results in sensationalistic and potentially unfair manner. In 2004, poll results are provided only to two prominent statewide columnists. Beginning in 2006, poll results were only posted on a website.
• Stennis Institute of Government starts a polling operation. In 2004 its poll shows public support for a $1 a pack increase in the cigarette tax, which would bring in $200 million to help close a $1 billion state deficit. A conservative lawmaker blast the poll, claims to be a trustee instead of a delegate.
How accurate are polls? See state-level polls conducted during the 2004 presidential elections.
Check out the Mississippi Poll project, and all of its links. Particularly, look at the codebook for the pooled dataset, the methods of each poll, and the latest reports on results.
Check out a practical application of the pooled, Mississippi Poll project. It examines race differences in one's quality of life and in one's intent to move out of their local community.
PUBLIC POLITICAL SOPHISTICATION (Week 5)
Belief Systems research in 1956 by Philip Converse of the University of Michigan: less than one-fifth of voters were sophisticated, being ideologues or near-ideologues; group interest was dominant category, then nature of the times and no issue content. But ideologues have increased over time, as group benefits has decreased.
Erikson and Tedin text, 7th edition, page 78:
.............................................YEAR
CATEGORY................1956......1968......1988
Ideologues.....................12%......26%......18%
Group Benefits...............42%......24%......36%
Nature of the Times........24%......29%......25%
No Issue Content............22%......21%......21%
..................................(100%)...(100%)...(100%)
Issue voting is a measure of sophistication:
1950s era of little issue voting- people lacked opinions on key public issues such as public power; their issue opinions changed greatly over time; they didn't know where the candidates or government policy stood on those issues; they didn't vote for the candidate closer to their own position. Party identification shaped their vote, or candidate personal characteristics.
1968-1972 era of greater issue voting- over 60% had opinions on issues; about 50% were able to place candidates on issue scales; issues affected the vote more, while party became less important.
Why change occurred: 1) divisive social and race issues became more salient to public; 2) presidential candidates were more ideological, offered candidates a clear choice on issues; 3) methodological artifact of changes in issue question wording and response categories.
The 1990s- unsophisticated public is affected by general economic satisfaction and dissatisfaction issue, evident since 1980. Satisfaction in 1984, 1988, and 1996, and dissatisfaction in 1980, 1992. Issue knowledge is limited: about half of public doesn't know party position on issues, and only about one-half of public can correctly identify the Democrats as the more liberal party (Erikson and Tedin American Public Opinion Seventh Edition, Pearson/Longman Publishers, p. 85).
Examples of public lack of political knowledge:
• About half of the public nationally is unable to name the candidates running for Congress.
• Since 1996 only one-fourth of adult Mississippians have been able to recall the name of their U.S. Congressional Representative. Before that, the figure was about one-third.
• Only one-third of Mississippians in a 1981 poll knew that the term of office of state legislators was four years.
• Only half of Mississippians knew that former GOP governor Kirk Fordice and GOP U.S. Senator Trent Lott are conservatives; about one-sixth thought that each was a liberal.
• Uninformed public is therefore influenced by how issues are framed: term limits support depends on whether people are asked if they back it, "even if it means that voters cannot reelect someone who is doing a good job."
Review Chapter 3 of Erikson and Tedin textbook. Some key points:
• How knowledgeable is public about politics? (page 62)
• What do ideological terms mean to people? (page 74)
• Issue differences between liberals and conservatives (page 76)
• Democratic Party is viewed as more liberal on issues (page 85)
• Democratic party identifiers are more liberal on issues than Republicans (page 87)
• More knowledgeable citizens are more ideological (page 8 cool
PUBLIC OPINION ON POLICY ISSUES
(Weeks 6-7)
DOMESTIC ECONOMICS ISSUES
Americans are progressive on domestic economics issues, placing a high priority on issues that affect their everyday lives, and desiring more government spending to deal with those problems. Yet they also favor many conservative reforms in education, welfare, and other issues.
High priority items are domestic economic issues, along with social issues such as crime and morality. After September 11, terrorism became the highest priority issue. A September 7, 2001 Gallup Poll(The Gallup Poll Monthly, September 2001 p.20) found the following percentages of Americans responding what the most important problem facing the country was:
Economy in general = 22% [Jobs – Unemployment ]
Education = 11%
Unemployment, jobs = 10%
Moral issues, ethics, family decline = 9%
Crime and violence = 7%
Cynicism, dissatisfaction with politicians = 6%
Poverty and homelessness = 5%
Illegal immigration = 5%
Health Care = 5%
Medicare and Social Security = 5%
Drugs = 4%
Low priority items included many backed by partisan and ideological politicians: Racism - 2%; guns and gun control - 1%; AIDS, abortion - less than 1%, each. A 1997 Gallup Poll(The Gallup Poll Monthly, February 1997 p.11-13) found that other minor issues were: term limits, campaign finance reform, and capital gains tax cut.
A note on terrorism. The September 11, 2001 terrorist attack temporarily elevated this issue about all others. Terrorism, fear of war, or national security were the number one issues of 59% of Americans in a November 2001 Gallup poll (Gallup Poll Monthly, November 2001 p.35). The economy or jobs were mentioned by 22%. All other issues were mentioned by 4% or fewer Americans.
A note on Iraq. When America is involved in a war, that also tends to be an important priority. Note the following December 2007 poll:
CBS News/New York Times Poll. Dec. 5-9, 2007. N=1,133 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.
"What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?"
War in Iraq- 25%
Economy/Jobs- 12%
Health care- 7%
Immigration- 4%
Environment- 3%
Gas/Heating oil crisis- 3%
Poverty/Homelessness- 3%
Terrorism (general)- 3%
Other responses- 36%
No Opinion- 4%
When the economy is bad, economic issues become most important. A June 3-6, 2004 Gallup Poll found that 41% of Americans mentioned some aspect of the economy in response to the most important problem facing the nation question. Among the 41%, 19% percent simply said that the "economy" in general was the nation's top problem, 13% mention jobs or unemployment, and 7% said fuel and oil prices. The second most important issue was the war in Iraq or feelings of fear about war, mentioned by 27% as the nation's top problem. Other issues included 13% mentioning terrorism, 6% ethics and morality, and 6% mentioning healthcare.
An August 2004 Time Poll shows the public concerned about both domestic and foreign issues. When asked the most important problem facing America, they responded:
• Economy- 27%
• Iraq- 19%
• Terrorism- 18%
• Moral values- 18%
• Health care- 11%
Most Americans also wish for government to spend more on solving domestic problems. General Social Survey polls found the following percents desiring increased spending (some are cited in Erikson and Tedin, p. 96):
Improving and protecting health- 74% in early 1990s and 76% in 2004
Aid to homeless- 73% in early 90's; not asked in 2000
Improving the public school system- 69% in early 90's; 74% in 2004
Aid to college students- 61% in early 90's, 55% in 2004
Protecting the environment- 59% in early 90s; 51% in 2004
Social Security- 46% in early 90's; 64% in 2004
Halting Rising Crime- 74% in early 90's; 61% in 2000
Dealing with Drug Addiction- 63% in early 90's; 62% in 2000
Public support for spending is so great that even a conservative, traditionalistic state like Mississippi has a public backing more state spending. The Mississippi Poll found the following percentages of the state public backing increased state spending in 2006:
Public elementary-secondary education- 79%
Health care and hospitals- 74%
Police forces- 62%
Programs for the poor- 61%
Colleges and universities- 60%
Streets and Highways- 60%
Industrial growth and development- 57%
Child Day Care facilities- 54%
Environmental programs- 48%
Encouraging tourism- 41%
Americans back increased education spending, but they also favor some conservative reforms. (November 2000 Gallup Poll)
Mandatory teacher testing in public schools is favored by 95%
National standardized tests for schools is favored by 75%
School vouchers is endorsed by 56%, opposed by 39%
President Bush's education philosophy has public support, therefore.
In-depth study of vouchers:
(Phi Delta Kappa/Gallup Poll. June 5-26, 2002. N=1,000 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3. "A proposal has been made that would allow parents to send their school-age children to any public, private, or church-related school they choose. For those parents choosing nonpublic schools, the government would pay all or part of the tuition. Would you favor or oppose this proposal in your state?" wink
Favor = 52%
Oppose = 46%
No opinion = 2%
It is likely that the public would be more supportive of vouchers if they were limited to choice among the public schools.
Americans view health care from self-interest perspective.
For Medicare, don't raise eligibility from 65 to 67, but make wealthier pay more than lower income.
People want a universal system of health care, which includes high cost items like catastrophic illness coverage, nursing home care, and prescription drugs. But they want employers to pay for it, and don't want abortion covered.
Clinton plan died because people saw it as: benefiting poor primarily; fewer medical choices; declining health care quality; increasing health care costs; too much government involvement.
Yet in a 2000 Gallup Poll, 64% still say it is the federal government's role to ensure that everyone has health care coverage, and 76% say the federal government should do more to regulate health care costs.
Welfare Reform- ideologically diverse ways to deal with problem (USA Today and Gallup, 1994):
Conservative options backed by most people: job training; five year lifetime limit for adults; two year limit for those without jobs; no immigrant aid; people believe that "most" welfare recipients are "taking advantage of the system." Hence, even Democrat Bill Clinton supported welfare reform.
Liberal options backed by majority: child care for job seeking parents; commuting costs paid; government paid jobs; keep paying unmarried mothers, kids of unmarried moms, give kids separate benefits.
Social Security reform shows how public is unwilling to make sacrifices (Gallup Poll Monthly, January 1998 p.34):
Only reform supported (by 66%) is allowing individuals to invest a portion of their Social Security savings in the stock market.
62% oppose raising employer and employee social security taxes.
59% oppose allowing government to invest part of social security trust fund in the stock market.
70% oppose raising the social security retirement age to 70.
85% oppose reducing social security benefits.
Similar results were found in a 2005 poll (ABC News/Washington Post Poll. March 10-13, 2005. N=1,001 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.)
"I'm going to mention changes some leaders have proposed for Social Security. Please tell me if you support or oppose each one. . . ."
"Increasing the Social Security tax rate": 31% support, 64% oppose, 4% unsure
"Collecting Social Security taxes on all the money a worker earns, rather than taxing only up to the first $90,000 of annual income": 56% support, 40% oppose, 4% unsure
"Raising the retirement age to receive full Social Security benefits to 68, instead of the current 67": 33% support, 66% oppose, 2% unsure
"Further reducing the benefits paid to people who retire early. For instance, people who retire at age 62 would get 63% of their full benefits, rather than the current 70%": 36% support, 62% oppose, 2% unsure.
"Changing the way Social Security benefits are calculated so that benefits increase at a slower rate than they would under the current formula": 37% support, 57% oppose, 6% unsure.
"Reducing guaranteed benefits for future retirees": 20% support, 75% oppose, 5% unsure.
Balanced Budget amendment is backed by 74% of public. Majorities back cutting arts funding, welfare, food stamps, and defense. Most refuse to cut expensive programs such as medicare, social security, medicaid, school lunch, college loans, police grants.
Public backs line item veto for President.
Labor issues. A majority of Americans and Mississippians approve the concept of labor unions, and of increasing the minimum wage. In November 2000 Gallup Poll, 82% back raising the minimum wage.
Environmental and Energy Issues-
The environment is not a top priority of Americans. Furthermore, concern over environmental issues has decreased about 10% over the past ten years. (April 2001 Gallup Poll)
Most important environmental concerns are drinking water pollution, rivers and lakes pollution, and soil and water contamination by toxic wastes, where over 50% claim to worry "a great deal" about them.
Less important issues are global warming, damage to the ozone layer, loss of wildlife habitat, and species extinction. Hence, Bush's killing of the Kyoto treaty has not hurt him.
People favor conservation as well as energy production to deal with the energy crisis. (Gallup, May 2001) Over 80% favor mandating more energy efficient appliances, new buildings, and cars, as well as investing in new sources of energy and in new power generating plants.
Not favored by the public is oil exploration in the Alaskan Arctic Wildlife Refuge or increasing Nuclear Power (only 38% backed Alaska drilling).
Term limits backed by most Americans nationally.
But remember issue is a low priority one.
People back term limits due to rising public cynicism with government.
Public divided when reminded that they can't reelect someone doing a "good job." 74% of Mississippians backed a two-term limit of state legislators in 1992; when reminded about inability to reelect someone doing a good job, only 59% backed term limits in 1994 and 57% opposed it in 1996.
CRIME
Crime is a top priority to the public. In a January 2001 Gallup Poll, crime was the third most important problem facing the nation, just behind moral issues and education. Americans are generally conservative on this issue, though it does favor some liberal provisions seeking to prevent crime.
People are frustrated with crime. In a 1993 Gallup Poll, a majority believe that the criminal justice system makes it too hard for the police and prosecutors to convict people accused of crimes (African-Americans are split 50-50, though). Frustration is reflected in a majority agreeing that criminal defendants should be required to prove their innocence, and disagreeing that it is better to let some guilty people go free than to risk convicting an innocent person. People respect police and believe in respect for authority figures. A majority believe that police testify truthfully, and believe that obedience and respect for authority should be the most important virtues taught children.
Death penalty for murder is supported by two-thirds of Americans nationally in 2006. Death penalty was supported by three-fourths of Americans in the 1990s. The same level of support is found even if one out of one hundred people sentenced to death were innocent. Support nationally rose in 1976 and in 1985. Even among non-whites, some polls show a narrow majority backing it.
Question wording affects death penalty support. When given two options instead of one, 50% back the death penalty and 46% back life in prison without parole (ABC News/Washington Post Poll. June 22-25, 2006). In Mississippi Poll in 1996, when given three options, 56% backed death penalty, 42% life in prison without parole, and 2% a shorter jail term.
Rising support for death penalty prior to 2000 was because of rise in actual violent crime rate after 1960, and rising percent of people who think that the courts are too lenient on criminals.
Death penalty opponents have stressed need for a moratorium in order to ensure that innocent people are not executed, and argue that the death penalty is unfair to the poor and minorities in its application. The public is split on a moratorium, but is sympathetic to claims of its unfairness.
Public wishes to reduce crime rate regardless of ideological direction of policy. A Gallup Poll in the late 1990s showed majorities backing the following policies:
Conservative policies: 1) Harder to get bail for those accused of murder and rape; 2) More severe sentences for all crimes; 3) Tax increase or federal money for more police on the streets; 4) Making parole more difficult for violent crimes like murder and rape; 5) Three strikes and you're out for serious felonies; 6) Community notification when sex offenders are released; 7) Death penalty for some serious crimes other than murder; cool Death penalty despite statistical discrimination against minorities; 9) Limit death penalty appeals.
Liberal policies: 1) Tougher gun control laws; 2) Barring under 18 from buying guns; 3) Barring criminals from buying handguns; 4) Brady Bill, 5 day waiting period to check on felony records; 5) Ban semi-automatic assault rifles; 6) Ban cheap handguns; 7) For social programs for low income children, such as midnight basketball; cool A January 2000 Gallup Poll indicated that 73% favor registration of all handguns; 9) A November 2000 Gallup Poll showed 83% favoring Hate Crime legislation.
Similar results were found in a 2000 poll by Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. (The survey was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Assoc. April 12-16, 2000. N=1,000 adults nationwide. "Now, I am going to read you some things that might be done to reduce violent crime in this country. As I read each one, please tell me if you think it would reduce the amount of violent crime a lot, a little, or not at all." wink
"More job and community programs for young people"- 63% lot, 29% little.
"Longer jail terms for those convicted of violent crimes"- 49% lot, 33% little.
"Restrictions on the amount of violence shown on TV"- 48% lot, 37% little.
"More police on the streets"- 46% lot, 45% little.
"Stricter gun control laws"- 41% lot, 33% little.
CIVIL LIBERTY ISSUES
In 2001, moral issues, ethics, religion, dishonesty, and the decline of the family was the most important problem facing America, according to 13% (12% picked education). Average Americans tend to be conservative on some moral issues, though liberal or ambivalent on some life-style issues.
Americans are conservative towards legalized drugs. 77% oppose legalization of marijuana. Examples of George McGovern and Jocelyn Elders being hurt politically by backing decriminalization of soft drugs. Yet medical use of marijuana is backed in some state referenda. Also, the conservative National Review and William F. Buckley Jr. back decriminalization of some drugs, expressing concern over large jail population for drug possession.
Americans are also conservative on school prayer. Over 70% believe that prayer should be allowed in the public schools, and 69% (November 2000 Gallup ) even back a constitutional amendment. Americans back letting religious groups use public school facilities after school hours, saying prayer at graduation ceremonies, and posting the Ten Commandments on public property.
The vast majority of Americans also favor keeping the words "under God" in the pledge of allegiance. A June 2002 ABC News/Washington Post Poll found that 89% favored keeping this religious phrase in the Pledge, and only 10% wanted to remove it.
Indeed, two-thirds in a June 2000 Gallup Poll even endorsed teaching creationism along with evolution, though a majority opposed eliminating evolution teaching.
Yet when asked whether prayer should be solely Christian, the same margin favored permitting all major religions, including Jewish, Muslim, and Hindu. Also, when asked about a moment of silence or silent prayer, over 70% backed that instead of spoken prayer.
Is America a "Christian" nation controversy.
Americans are conservative on bilingual education. Over 60% in a June 1998 Gallup Poll (Gallup Poll Monthly June 1998 p.17-1 cool backed immersion, which is teaching non-English speaking students all of their subjects in English, while giving them intensive training in how to read and speak English. Only one-third backed bilingual education, which is teaching them their core subjects in their native language, while providing them gradual training in English.
Americans tend to be conservative on Gay Rights.
A majority of Americans believe that gays should not be permitted to marry. (ABC News Poll. May 31-June 4, 2006. N=1,001 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3. "Do you think it should be legal or illegal for homosexual couples to get married?" wink 36% say it should be Legal, and 58% say Illegal, with 5% Unsure.
However, Americans are split over whether a federal constitutional amendment is needed. (Gallup Poll. May 8-11, 2006. N=1,002 adults nationwide. "Would you favor or oppose a constitutional amendment that would define marriage as being between a man and a woman, thus barring marriages between gay or lesbian couples?" wink 50% favor it and 47% oppose it with 3% unsure.
Some Americans are willling to grant civil unions. (FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. June 13-14, 2006. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3. "Do you believe gays and lesbians should be allowed to get legally married, allowed a legal partnership similar to but not called marriage, or should there be no legal recognition given to gay and lesbian relationships?" wink 27% say Legally Married, 25% say Legal Partnership, and 39% say No Legal Recognition, with 8% being Unsure.
Vermont's legislature legalized civil unions, but Hawaii did not.
The Boy Scouts should not be required to allow openly gay adults to serve as Boy Scout leaders according to 64% of Americans (31% disagree).
Americans oppose job discrimination against gays in most occupations, except those where they have contact with children.
In the military, most Americans back the moderate "don't ask, don't tell, don't pursue" policy towards gays in the military.
Test study hints:

Answer two of the three questions, and answer each part of the two questions you choose. Study the following:
• TEST TUESDAY FEBRUARY 26Tth
• Weeks 3-4, class notes on Political Polling Techniques, all of notes.
• Weeks 6-7, Public Opinion on Policy Issues, all of notes. Especially study domestic economic issues, crime, and civil liberty issues.


Crime
Conservative

1. Harder to get bail
2. severe (longer) Sentences [85%]
3. More police on streets (pres. Clinton)
4. Parole Harder
5. Three strikes out
6. Community notification for sex offenders
7. Limit Death penalty appeals
Liberal
1. Brady Bill – 5 day wait period
2. Ban semi automatic assault rifles
3. Ban cheap handguns
4. register all handguns
5. midnight basketball – social programs - poor
6. Hate Crime

TV Violence

Religion- Moderate conservative
Conservative
-Prayer in schools okay
-Religious groups use public school facilities after hours
-Post Ten Commandments in public place
-keep “under God” in Pledge of Allegiance
-Creationism and evolution
Moderate
-All major religions
-School prayer
-Silent prayer

Gay Rights – Moderate conservative
-No Marriage – conservative
- Split over a federal constitution amendment – moderate
-Civil Unions – Median
-Against job discrimination
-Okay, Boy Scout discrimination
-Job discrimination okay if job is involved with kids

Americans are divided on the issue of abortion. Only about one-fifth wish it always legal and one-fifth wish it always illegal, while 60% wish it legal only under certain circumstances. Over 75% back legal abortions for rape, incest, life or health (even mental) of mother endangered, or defective fetus.
Abortion restrictions backed. Majorities back: 1) Requiring doctors to inform patients about alternatives to abortion; 2) 24 hour waiting period; 3) Requiring husband to be notified; 4) Parental consent for those under 18; 5) Partial birth abortion ban (63% in a November 2000 Gallup);
An attack on a pregnant woman that results in the death of a fetus should be treated as murder, according to 79% of Americans in a July 2003 Fox News Poll.
Americans are evenly divided on legal abortions for: single women who don't want to get married, women who cannot afford children, or for married women who don't want more children. Pluralities of 47% oppose an abortion pill (RU-486), but 39% favor it.
Americans oppose overturning Roe v. Wade decision (67% versus 30% in a November 2000 Gallup Poll).
Americans are liberal on sex education and freedom of expression. 88% back sex education in schools. 58% oppose a ban on pornography for adults, though most back ban for minors.
Abortion
Liberal Conservative
Rape, Incest, Inform of abortion Alternatives.
Life, Health, 24 hour waiting period.
Mental, defective fetus Parental Consent.
For Roe v. Wade Ban Partial Birth abortion.
Assault on preg woman that
Kills fetus charged as murder.

RACIAL ISSUES
Americans have become more liberal over time on the general issue of racial discrimination, but are divided over how to deal with concrete examples of lingering racial problems.
Increased white liberalization over time. Over 80% back concepts of school integration, integrated neighborhoods, and voting for an African-American for President.
Affirmative Action for minorities and women- Mend, Don't End. (USA Today Poll, March 1995)
Over 70% of whites back: 1) Outreach, identification, and encouraging blacks to apply for jobs; 2) Job training programs to improve qualifications to get better jobs; 3) Special educational programs to make them better qualified for college.
Over 60% of whites oppose: 1) College scholarships available for only women and minorities; 2) Quotas for jobs or college admissions; 3) Favoring a less qualified minority over a white in a business with few minority workers. A November 2000 Gallup Poll showed that 85% of Americans opposed racial or gender preferences in jobs and schools, which I believe reflects this perception of quotas and special preferences. A June 2003 Gallup Poll found that 69% of Americans believe that only merit should be used in deciding entry into universities.
Not a salient issue to many whites. Only 12% of whites say they lost a job that went to a minority; only 8% were passed over for promotion that went to minority. Issue is more salient to minorities, where 32% believe they lost a job or promotion because of racial discrimination.
African-Americans are concerned over racial discrimination. Two-thirds of blacks believe that they do not have as good a chance as whites in their community to get a job that they are qualified for, and the same margin backs new civil rights laws to reduce racial discrimination. O.J. Simpson trial showed that a majority of blacks believe that the American justice system is biased against blacks, and two-thirds see a problem of racism among police officers.
A 1999 Gallup Poll asked whether blacks are treated less fairly than whites in six situations. About 90% of whites said no, but African-Americans disagreed. Fifty percent or more of blacks expressed concern of unequal treatment by police (as did 30% of whites), at work, and in downtown stores and malls. Nearly 40% perceived unfair treatment in restaurants/bars/theaters and in neighborhood shops. Only 19% saw problems with public transportation.
Racial Profiling. Results from 2006 Mississippi Poll, question included in poll by PhD student LaShonda Stewart:
Have you ever been a victim of racial profiling? Of blacks, 31% say yes, 68% say no, rest undecided (for whites, it is 7-90 split).
Do you believe that racial profiling is a widespread practice in Mississippi? Of blacks, 67% say yes, 24% say no, rest undecided or refused (for whites, 40-46 split)
Do you believe that law enforcement officers should be allowed to use racial profiling to fight crime? Of blacks, 8% say yes, 89 say no (for whites, 28-66 split).
Confederate Flag issue. Americans in a May 2000 Gallup Poll were equally divided over whether it was all right for southern states to fly "some form of the Confederate flag on top of their state capital buildings." A reason for this mild reaction against this practice was that by a two-to-one margin, Americans viewed the practice as reflecting Southern pride rather than racism. When asked about groups boycotting South Carolina over the flag issue, 65% of Americans opposed this boycott while only 27% favored it.
Who is the most important national leader in the African-American community? A June 2003 Gallup Poll found about one-sixth of blacks each saying Colin Powell or Jesse Jackson. But an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll in March 2000 had found 43% of blacks responding that Jesse Jackson was the leader who "best represents the interests of the black community today," while only 17% said Colin Powell. Has Jesse Jackson lost support in the black community in recent years? What effect has Bush's appointments of Powell and Condi Rice to top positions had on the black community?
Has America given up on integration?
In a 1989 Gallup Poll, most Americans felt enough attention had been provided to the civil rights of African Americans. Most Americans were most concerned over the elderly, disabled and handicapped people, and to some degree Asian-Americans, women, Hispanics, AIDS victims, and Jews.
48% of all Americans (and 60% of blacks) prefer increased funding and resources for minorities' schools, while only 32% endorse stepping up efforts to integrate the two races in the public schools. Example- Ayers case. Generation gap among blacks: plurality over age 50 back more integration, while 73% of blacks under 50 back more minority funding.
POLITICAL REFORM
Americans often claim to desire political reforms, but these issues are not major priorities to most citizens.
Limiting soft money campaign contributions. An October 2000 Gallup Poll asked about soft money, defined as the money that individuals, businesses, and labor unions are legally allowed to contribute to national political parties. Over two-thirds of Americans favored a new federal law to limit the amount of soft money that any individual or group could contribute to the national parties.
Electoral College Reform. In November-December 2000 Gallup Polls, about 60% of Americans favored amending the constitution so that the candidate winning the most total votes nationally won the election, while 36% favored the current system where whoever wins the most votes in the Electoral College wins the election. Yet 2001 polls showed that most Americans regarded George W. Bush as a legitimate President, even though he lost the popular vote to Al Gore.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Foreign affairs tend to be less visible issues that people care less about, and people tend to be pragmatic on such issues.
Americans are basically internationalist, with 65% saying our country should "take an active part in world affairs." Only about 30% say we should "stay out of world affairs." In Mississippi the isolationist sentiment is higher.
Defense spending preferences are influenced by external events. Vietnam era of early 1970s saw cynicism towards war and military causing desire for spending cuts. Iran and Afghanistan crises in 1980 and perception of American weakness caused desire for more spending. After 1984 support for defense spending has declined, as America has gotten stronger and communism has died. The terrorist attacks of September 2001 on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon naturally caused public support for defense spending to increase.
If you get into a war, win it. Most Americans rated World War 2 and Persian Gulf Wars as "just wars," but most viewed our Vietnam troop involvement as a mistake and people were divided over Korea as well.
On the issue of missile defense, a majority (53%) favor building a defense system against nuclear missiles, while 36% oppose it (July 2000 Gallup poll).
Cuba relations. A November 2000 Gallup Poll saw 56% favoring re-establishing relations with Cuba, while 35% opposed it.
Immigration.
July 1993 Gallup Poll found 65% of Americans felt number of immigrants should be decreased. Concerns over diversity threatening American culture, and cost of government education and medical benefits for immigrants. Americans especially thought that there was too much immigration from Arab countries, Latin America, and Asian countries; most backed European immigration, and were divided towards Africa. A more recent June 2002 Gallup Poll found that a more modest 49% of Americans wanted immigration levels decreased, while 36% agreed with the current level and 12% wanted increased immigration. A bare majority of 52% felt that immigration was a good thing for the country, but 42% felt that it was a bad thing.
A bare majority of Americans (52%) oppose "a program in which illegal immigrants from Mexico would be allowed to live and work legally in the United States," while 41% favor it. (ABC News Poll, January 2004) This suggests a lack of support for the Bush proposed guest worker plan.
Solutions to cut immigration: majorities backed better border patrols and a national identification card. Most opposed cutting off schools and hospitals for illegal immigrants. A November 2000 Gallup poll found a majority not wanting to cut off legal immigration.
July 1995, USA Today poll of adult immigrants. Most prefer USA to their homeland in terms of better job opportunities, more political freedom, and fair laws. Yet most immigrants rated their homelands higher in terms of safety from crime, and moral values.
MIDTERM ESSAY EXAMINATION
(answer two of three questions)