Article.
Quote:
Stunning sight of militant mea culpa
COMMENT
Abraham Rabinovich, Jerusalem
August 29, 2006
DESPITE the inclination in Israel to accept the verdict of the Muslim world that Hezbollah came out on top in the recent war, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, in his stunning interview yesterday, in effect handed the victory to Israel.
In acknowledging that he had erred in estimating the likely Israeli reaction and that he had not foreseen the devastating consequences for Lebanon, he asserted that Israel's deterrent power had not been eroded by the war, but enhanced.
It has been widely mooted in the Muslim world, and to a large extent in Israel itself, that Israel's inability to stop Hezbollah's rocket fire into northern Israel in a month of warfare - and its failure to complete the capture of southern Lebanon - had shattered the image of the Israeli army as virtually invincible and exposed it as vulnerable to militants.
The thrust of Nasrallah's remarks, however, was that the punishment inflicted by Israel had been too great a price for Hezbollah and Lebanon to bear. "There has not been a war like this in the history of wars," he said, a view that reflected his stunned appearance in a taped interview in a Beirut bunker at the war's beginning after Israeli warplanes had begun to level an entire Hezbollah neighbourhood above his head.
In contrast with the aggressive way in which he spoke of Israel in the past, Nasrallah's tone during this interview was markedly restrained. Gone was the taunting nature of his famous speech several years ago in which he said Israel was a cobweb that would be swept away by the first strong wind.
He had demonstrated this dismissiveness by authorising periodic cross-border raids and recurring rocket attacks on Israeli army positions along the border in the six years since Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon. In saying now that he would not have carried out last month's raid in which two Israeli soldiers were captured if he had known the consequences, he was clearly implying he would not do something like that in the future - for fear of similar consequences.
That is deterrence, something Israel had lost against Hezbollah in recent years.
Nasrallah's remarks apparently reflect a growing reassessment within Lebanon of the war's balance sheet as south Lebanon residents return to mauled villages that Hezbollah had turned into military strong points and that were pummelled by Israel in the fighting.
Hezbollah has not reacted thus far to the killing of a dozen of its fighters by Israeli soldiers since the ceasefire went into effect. Hezbollah's lack of response on the ground can be seen as reflecting the reduced legitimacy it now has in Lebanon in the wake of the war's devastation and its reluctance, at least for now, to revive hostilities.
More than 1300 Lebanese were killed in the war, mostly civilians. Hezbollah has admitted to the deaths of a few score of its fighters but Israel says that up to 800 Hezbollah fighters were killed. Israel says it has the names of 430 dead fighters, presumably taken from identity cards.
Israel itself has lost about 160 soldiers and civilians. The piles of war-related rubble are also higher in Lebanon.
However, it is not the statistics of death and destruction that determine who won the war, if there be a winner, but perception, particularly the perception of the man who inadvertently started it.
COMMENT
Abraham Rabinovich, Jerusalem
August 29, 2006
DESPITE the inclination in Israel to accept the verdict of the Muslim world that Hezbollah came out on top in the recent war, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, in his stunning interview yesterday, in effect handed the victory to Israel.
In acknowledging that he had erred in estimating the likely Israeli reaction and that he had not foreseen the devastating consequences for Lebanon, he asserted that Israel's deterrent power had not been eroded by the war, but enhanced.
It has been widely mooted in the Muslim world, and to a large extent in Israel itself, that Israel's inability to stop Hezbollah's rocket fire into northern Israel in a month of warfare - and its failure to complete the capture of southern Lebanon - had shattered the image of the Israeli army as virtually invincible and exposed it as vulnerable to militants.
The thrust of Nasrallah's remarks, however, was that the punishment inflicted by Israel had been too great a price for Hezbollah and Lebanon to bear. "There has not been a war like this in the history of wars," he said, a view that reflected his stunned appearance in a taped interview in a Beirut bunker at the war's beginning after Israeli warplanes had begun to level an entire Hezbollah neighbourhood above his head.
In contrast with the aggressive way in which he spoke of Israel in the past, Nasrallah's tone during this interview was markedly restrained. Gone was the taunting nature of his famous speech several years ago in which he said Israel was a cobweb that would be swept away by the first strong wind.
He had demonstrated this dismissiveness by authorising periodic cross-border raids and recurring rocket attacks on Israeli army positions along the border in the six years since Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon. In saying now that he would not have carried out last month's raid in which two Israeli soldiers were captured if he had known the consequences, he was clearly implying he would not do something like that in the future - for fear of similar consequences.
That is deterrence, something Israel had lost against Hezbollah in recent years.
Nasrallah's remarks apparently reflect a growing reassessment within Lebanon of the war's balance sheet as south Lebanon residents return to mauled villages that Hezbollah had turned into military strong points and that were pummelled by Israel in the fighting.
Hezbollah has not reacted thus far to the killing of a dozen of its fighters by Israeli soldiers since the ceasefire went into effect. Hezbollah's lack of response on the ground can be seen as reflecting the reduced legitimacy it now has in Lebanon in the wake of the war's devastation and its reluctance, at least for now, to revive hostilities.
More than 1300 Lebanese were killed in the war, mostly civilians. Hezbollah has admitted to the deaths of a few score of its fighters but Israel says that up to 800 Hezbollah fighters were killed. Israel says it has the names of 430 dead fighters, presumably taken from identity cards.
Israel itself has lost about 160 soldiers and civilians. The piles of war-related rubble are also higher in Lebanon.
However, it is not the statistics of death and destruction that determine who won the war, if there be a winner, but perception, particularly the perception of the man who inadvertently started it.
Just thought I'd share this interesting article with the Zionist Guild (I'll be posting an actual debate for it in ED-P in a topic with the same title.)
