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Global correlation of gun control and Homicide Rates
Technically there is always a correlation of some kind in statistics, but not one that implies a positive trend, or in this case that more guns equates to more violence. There is a common argument, that the lowest homicide countries all have low volumes of guns, so therefore, doesn't that mean that civilian ownership of guns increases violence, or at the very least, homicides?

The problem is that there is no such association. For the sake of brevity and to target the issue directly, I'll take a look at the top 25 countries with the lowest homicide rates (of whom possess reliable information regarding their total firearm ownership and gun laws), whom possess information regarding their total civilian firearm ownership, and compare that to the world average. According to the United Nation's small arms survey, there are approximately 875 million firearms total in the world, and 650 million in civilian hands (Page 1). The world population on July 15th 2015, according to the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, was approximately 7.3 billion. Doing simple math, that means there are approximately 8.9 guns per 100 people in the world on average, in civilians hands.

The U.S. possess a third to a half of these firearms, creating a world average excluding the U.S. of approximately 5 guns per 100 people (350 million out of 7 billion), and countries such as Switzerland or Israel have fully automatic weapons in the homes of civilians, military firearms, given to them by the state, which offsets this figure somewhat (as the guns are not recorded as "civilian" firearms, despite being inside their homes). Nonetheless, this gives us a rough baseline of the world average of guns. How high is the gun ownership rate in the the countries with the top lowest homicide rates?

20 out of the 25 (80%) have a higher gun ownership rate higher than the world average. Of these, 15 have a gun ownership rate higher than 15 per person (60%), and 7 (28%) have a firearm ownership rate of 30 per 100. Another common association is that the U.S. has a significantly higher homicide rate than Europe. While Europe does in fact have countries with lower homicide rates than the U.S., the average is about 3.0, while it was about 4.5 in the U.S. suggesting a not so extreme difference. Comparatively, Russia had a homicide rate of 13, Greenland 19.4, Brazil 25.2, Venezuela 48, and El Salvador 65.

This is a comprehensive list of the UNODOC's self reported homicide and civilian firearms ownership rate. The bolded are countries above the average. The Raw numbers are Japan is .6, Singapore is at .5, Iceland is at 30.3, Brunei is at 1.4, Bahrain is at 24.8, Austria is at 30.4, Luxembourg is at 15.3, Oman is 25.5, Slovenia is 13.5, Switzerland is at 45.7, United Arab Emirates is at 22.1, Czech Republic is at 16.3, Spain is at 10.4, Germany is at 30.3, Qatar is at 19.2, Denmark is at 12, Norway is at 31.3, Italy is 11.9, New Zealand is at 22.6, China is at 4.9, Bhutan is at 3.5, Saudi Arabia is at 35, Sweden is at 31.6, Malta is at 11.9, and Australia is at 15.




The Chart
20 out of the 25 (80%) have a higher gun ownership rate higher than the world average. Of these, 15 have a gun ownership rate higher than 15 per person (60%), and 7 (28%) have a firearm ownership rate of 30 per 100.

Monaco, Palau, Hong Kong, French Polynesia, Guam, Macau, Vanuatu, Federated States of Micronesia are not on the list of recorded guns per capita by country. So technically, this is the top 25 countries with the lowest homicide rate with information regarding their civilian ownership of guns. The lowest homicide rate listed is for Japan at 0.3 per 100,000 individuals, and the highest is 1.1 for Australia.

Bolded countries have higher than the world average, or 8.9 guns per 100 people. Red countries have the same or higher than 15 guns per 100 people. Green countries have higher than 30 guns per 100 people. Excluding the U.S. from the world average, the average gun ownership rates drop to 5.0, and thus show an even greater disparity.

1. Japan is .6
2. Singapore is at .5
3. Iceland is at 30.3
4. Brunei is at 1.4
5. Bahrain is at 24.8
6. Austria is at 30.4
7. Luxembourg is at 15.3
8. Oman is 25.5
9. Slovenia is 13.5
10. Switzerland is at 45.7
11. United Arab Emirates is at 22.1
12. Czech Republic is at 16.3
13. Spain is at 10.4
14. Germany is at 30.3
15. Qatar is at 19.2
16. Denmark is at 12
17. Norway is at 31.3
18. Italy is 11.9
19. New Zealand is at 22.6
20. China is at 4.9
21. Bhutan is at 3.5
22. Saudi Arabia is at 35
23. Sweden is at 31.6
24. Malta is at 11.9
25. Australia is at 15.

Countries with highest Homicide Rate - In descending order
The countries with the highest 25 homicide rates, in order, comparing total gun ownership rates to the world average, 5.0 and 8.9 respectively, with the U.S. excluded and included. Territories such as Puerto Rico or Montserrat are removed, and these are the countries for which information about civilian gun ownership is known. The gun ownership rate is listed next to each country. Countries bolded are above the world average, countries in red have 15.0 or greater, countries in green have 30.0 or greater.

Of these countries, 8 out of 25 (32%) had higher than the world average. Only 2 out of 25 (8%) had a rate at or above 15.0, and zero had a rate higher than 30.0. Of these, very few made it slightly above the 8.9 figure. As it seems, countries with higher homicide rates had significantly lower rates than the world average.



1. Honduras - 6.2
2. El Salvador - 5.8
3. Venezuela - 10.7
4. Lesotho - 2.7
5. Jamaica - 8.1
6. Belize - 10
7. South Africa - 12.7
8. Guatemala - 13.1
9. Bahamas - 5.3
10. Colombia - 5.9
11. Trinidad and Tobago - 1.6
12. Brazil - 8
13. Swaziland - 6.4
14. Dominican Republic - 5.1
15. Namibia - 12.6
16. Panama - 21.7
17. Guyana - 14.6
18. Mexico - 15
19. Botswana - 4.9
20. Myanmar - 4
21. South Sudan - 5.5
22. Central African Republic - 1
23. Democratic Republic of the Congo 1.4
24. Turkmenistan 3.8
25. Ivory Coast 2.4