Did somebody say "Let's overanalyze a fictional reality game show that hasn't even started yet?" Yes, because I just did. So let's get to it!
Over at the Total Drama Wiki there are articles, little more than stubs really, for
all 13 contestants of season 4 of Total Drama. There's not that much that can be considered spoiler-y of them, so if you haven't seen them yet go ahead, because I'm going to analyze what scant information we have to try to guess how season 4 will play out. This may seem ridiculous (because it is), but what we have to remember is that this is a scripted show; the writers are governed, to some extent, by the dictates of story and drama. Example? I still to this day don't understand how Geoff got voted off in season one when, in real life, everyone would have taken advantage of the fact that Heather didn't have immunity for once and they could finally get rid of her. But the story required keeping Heather around until the last moment, setting her up for the karma bomb, so story trumped logic.
So because this season is only 13 episodes long, and because these are all new characters (and thus will not have much (if any) time for genuine character growth), I'm going on record as predicting that the tropes and common expectations of this show will determine how most of the season will play out. The characters will be locked in their one-dimensional ubertraits, and that will shape their destiny.
OK, then?
Going through the characters alphabetically:
Ann Maria is described as a Jersey Shore reject. I've never seen the show, but my understanding is that they're all a bunch of vapid, emotionally and intellectually stunted men- and women-children. So I expect Ann Maria will be fashion-obsessed, unreasonably concerned with her hair/nails/tan, not keen on physical exertion or going out of her way to help her team, and not particularly bright.
B is described as the "strong, silent genius." More or less like DJ, I guess, which may be appropriate considering the design work trivia. He'll probably be competent and a team-player, though perhaps not aggressive or confrontational (especially with his own teammates).
I don't want to compare each new character to one of the original cast members (because if that is the case then that means the show's pretty much jumped the shark), but
Brick strikes me as Eva Redux. Only maybe this time they'll flesh out the character. But I still think he'll be thin-skinned, short-tempered, and he'll pretty quickly anger his teammates.
Cameron's description is "wide-eyed bubble-boy." I don't know if that means he has a ton of diseases and has to live in a bubble or if he's just an eternal optimist. I'm assuming it's the latter, and he's an eager-to-please puppy who may or may not be on the receiving end of all sorts of abuse because of his overabundance of niceness.
Dakota is the fame-monger. Easy to peg as narcissistic, manipulative, and (if she's intelligent enough) most likely to play the game's psychological aspect. Like Heather she won't be the most athletic, but she'll see the larger game and play to that.
Dawn is the hippie girl, and I don't mean
Hartman Hips (almost all the females are like that). 'Hippie' usually means 'peacenik,' so she'll probably eschew any competitive feelings and maybe even cost her team a pivotal challenge when she refuses to give into thoughts of aggression or whatever. Her original design was holding a crystal, so maybe she'll spout some Newage claptrap about positive energy and good vibes and get on her team's nerves that way.
Jo is a jockette, so we're talking athletic, eager to win, will probably win or at least dominate a few of the challenges and then lose to some twist. Probably not going to making alliances, and might not even care if her teams wins any challenge but rather if
she does.
Lightning is a male jock, so take everything I just said about Jo and apply it to him. Plus, if he goes by a nickname it's probably because he insists on people call him that, so I'm guessing he's not too smart. Easy to manipulate, perhaps?
Mike is said to have Multiple Personality Disorder. A male Izzy, mayhap? If that's the case then he's definitely just there for comic relief, and may not even be aware there's a competition going on.
Sam looks like Seth Rogen and he's called "a nice-guy gamer." Depending on how much they play up the 'nice-guy' aspect he could be an overly excited guy like Owen or maybe more subdued like DJ. Either way, I'm not sure how the 'gamer' aspect is supposed to be used. Off-hand I think they'll burn through a bunch of jokes about video games in the first few episodes and then, when he's no longer that interesting, they'll introduce a reason to eliminate him in the episode where he gets eliminated (think of Ezekiel or Noah getting cut after something specific happens in that particular episode).
Scott is "the devious one." Like Dakota, he'll be playing the game as it's supposed to be played, perhaps going the full Heather route and having Lightning help him win some competitions. If anyone's going to make it to the final four or even three, I'd place money on him, since you need a villain for the season.
Staci's one attribute is compulsive lying. I'm not even sure what to do with that. Does she do it knowingly, and will she try to play the other teens against each other? Or does she do it out of habit and it'll be played for laughs?
And finally there's
Zoey, the indie chick. Does indie also translate to independent? Is she going to be strong and assertive, kind of like in the mold of Gwen? I'm not sure, but my gut says it'll be something like that. Just as Scott's the (too?) obvious villain, Zoey just strikes me as the obvious "cheer for her because she'll overcome the most obstacles" character. Or maybe I'm wrong.
So, now that we've gone over the characters, what does this tell us about how the season will play out?
Well, I already said Scott seems like the obvious villain, so I wager he'll make it to the penultimate round. Or let's say Final Four. He and Zoey will make it, and I'll throw in Jo as one of the character who will win a fair number of the competitions (usually a good indication of how far someone can go; look at Gwen or Harold) and avoid angering anyone in a significant way. And the fourth will be... I'll say either B is smart enough to not make any enemies or Cameron fills the role of "nice guy who coasts by not drawing attention to himself" (see Owen, Beth and Cody in seasons 1, 2, and 3, respectively).
If Cameron doesn't make it to the Final Four, he'll probably get eliminated sometime in the middle, after proving himself useless on multiple occasions.
But to get there, who will be eliminated first? Ann Marie and Dakota both seem to be self-obsessed and vapid, so I'm going to say that one will get voted off right away; Dakota seems more versatile as a character (the Jersey Shore thing seems like it'll get old fast, whereas a fame-whore is a pretty standard trope) so she'd be of more use to the writers.
After Ann Marie, I'd say Sam and Staci (or Staci, then Sam; either way). I already said Sam's gamer thing doesn't seem to have legs, and I just don't know what the writers would do with Staci. Yet if there's anything I'm really doubting myself on, it's the idea that Staci isn't going to stick around. If I'm wrong about her getting voted off 2nd or 3rd, I think I'm going to be really wrong and she'll make it past the team dissolution point.
Fourth, I'm thinking either Brick or Lightning. Either Brick goes the Eva route and pisses off his teammates, or Scott sets up Lightning to take the fall when their team loses. If they do play up Scott as a manipulator, it would be an interesting turn to have him lose his pawn early on. Perhaps if Dakota is clever enough in her own right it could play out as a battle of wits between Scott and Dakota, with Lightning's elimination a victory for the latter.
If Brick is fourth then I'll say Cameron goes next, and if Lightning is fourth I'll say... Brick. He just really stands out as the type of character that will piss off his team and not care, and then that will come to bite him in the a**.
So we're, what, almost halfway now? I haven't said anything about Mike, but recalling my 'male Izzy' comment above, he seems perfect for the role of go-to comic relief for the first half of the season and then getting eliminated when the writers want to set-up the more serious plots of the latter half. Look at how Izzy got eliminated in all three seasons before things started getting heavier (especially in World Tour, where both Izzy and DJ (the last of Team Victory) got cut the episode before Duncan came back; very obvious shift in focus there). So fifth, sixth or seventh Mike gets cut in a
Shoo Out the Clowns.
After that... I've already guessed who the Final Four will be, so it's a matter of cutting Dakota, Dawn and (if he's still around) Lightning.
Just off the top of my head, here's how I think the rankings will play out:
13. Ann Marie
12. Staci
11. Sam
10. Brick
9. Cameron
8. Mike
7. Lightning
6. Dawn
5. Dakota
4. Jo
3. Scott
And then B and Zoey will be the final two, so technically there will be endings where either wins. But the 'official' ending will be B. I have no basis to make that claim, however.
But of course, I COULD BE WRONG. Completely wrong. At the start of World Tour I figured Alejandro would be eliminated in the penultimate episode, leaving Courtney (who plays the game) and either DJ and/or Bridgette (athletic and popular enough to make it through most challenges and eliminations) to fight it out in the last round. I didn't foresee Heather coming back as a major character, I didn't foresee the Cody/Sierra storyline being dragged on sooooooo long, and I absolutely did not see the actual villain making it to the final round.
So yeah, I could be (and I hope to be) surprised by what actually happens in RotI. Maybe one of Mike's personalities will be hypercompetent and competitive. Maybe Sam will do the Owen thing and avoid getting voted off because he's such a nice guy. Maybe Dakota will throw the first challenge because she doesn't want to be famous for making out with a giant cockroach (or whatever the first challenge is). I. Don't. Know.
I have been genuinely caught off guard at times, and not just in a "swerve out of nowhere sense." Looking back at the start of World Tour, there's some real brilliance in how Alejandro helped get Team Victory eliminated in what was pretty much a curbstomp battle (even as Team Amazon got most of the wins). He was familiar with the show and the contestants and it paid off. Perhaps one or more of the new characters will have watched the previous seasons and they'll adjust their strategy accordingly. Maybe Brick will realize he comes off as unlikeable and he'll try to tone down his anger to avoid getting voted off. Anything could happen.
But, as much as I love the show, I'm aware that the writers fall back on standard tropes and let their personal preferences dictate some storylines (how else do you explain Owen coming back in Action and getting as far as he did in World Tour?), so trying to guess how RotI will play out isn't so much about figuring out how the characters will interact with each other as it is realizing that this is scripted fiction, and plot convention plays a big role in it.
Now watch as B and Zoey are cut in the first episode in a double-elimination.
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