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MP Center is an elite vending guild focused on teaching fellow Gaia members about the Market Place to easier aquire their quested items. 

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What to hoard... oh, what to hoard...

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Une Saison En Enfer

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 23, 2010 10:30 am


I've recently ventured out of my comfort zone and have dove much deeper into the vending world... I have been selling off my hoards to invest in what I feel are more profitable items.

I've been very content just sitting on my RIG hoards, not risking much and avoiding "high stakes" activity... but now I've decided to sell most of my RIG hoards to trade in for some expensive items with a much brighter (and maybe safer) outlook. I've been buying up some Nightmare Sashes and Silver Laurels, but I still have a whopping 6 mil to play with... so I came here in hopes of some advice.

I was wondering if I should make a big hoard of popular MC's and other items with a great potential for inflation... or if I should blow it all on one old MC that could skyrocket off the charts in the next few years? I was considering the Golden Laurels.

I've considered some of the pros and cons of taking either direction...

The cheaper, popular items with great potential have a more predictable growth but it still might take a while to see awesome results. The GLaurel's growth is erratic but they could become incredibly rare and expensive within the next year... which would be awesome but they would be a burden to sell.

So, I'm wondering if it's more profitable to let a lot of small items grow in price or get one huge item and see where its erratic growth takes me... thoughts?
PostPosted: Fri Apr 23, 2010 12:08 pm


I'd advise going with the more popular items rather than betting everything on one item.

It's a lot easier for an item to grow from 100K -> 200K than it is for an item to go from 1M -> 2M. So if you have 10 of the first item you still make as much as having 1 of the second item - and probably faster. And because the first item is priced lower, it's going to be a lot easier to sell them - there are a lot more people willing to spend 200K on an item than 2M.

The higher end items also tend to experience a lot wilder price fluctuations based on popularity and the number of people buying them. One sale can change the average because there are so many fewer sales.

The advantage of the one higher priced item is that you're probably not going to lose on it. But you are probably not going to see the explosive growth, either. And you have hitched your wagon to one star, rather than spread out the risk.

I'm one of the three people I know who doesn't think Nitemare Sashes and Silver Laurels are the "Slam Dunk" investment that most people seem to think they are. I think because of the number of them out there and the number of people sitting on vast hoards of them (I know multiple people with 500+) there are a number of risk factors. I don't think they should be avoided - they do have a lot of potential - but I wouldn't put my whole net worth into them.

I like them a little better right now actually now that the price is coming down. I think we're seeing the start of some summer deflation so it's a great time to make strategic investments at really good prices.


purplewiz

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 23, 2010 12:23 pm


Thanks purplewiz! I think you gave me pretty much exactly what I needed to hear... good advice as always. 3nodding

Thanks for your opinion as well on the Nitemare Sashes/Silver Laurels... I completely didn't consider that hype is a driving factor as well. Huge hoards can damage the prospective inflation later on... I almost fell over when you mentioned the multiple people with more than 500... how does that happen? ;_;

It's really hard to get used to how rich some people are...

Anyway, I have decided now to definitely not push all my gold on to one investment, and though I've collected some Sashes/Laurels, I'm going to span out my investments a bit.

Anyone have any suggestions on what else I should invest in?... again, I have 6 mil. XD
PostPosted: Sat Apr 24, 2010 12:49 pm


Une Saison En Enfer
Thanks for your opinion as well on the Nitemare Sashes/Silver Laurels... I completely didn't consider that hype is a driving factor as well. Huge hoards can damage the prospective inflation later on... I almost fell over when you mentioned the multiple people with more than 500... how does that happen? ;_;


And those aren't their only hoards, not by a long shot...some people spend a great deal of their time here simply accumulating gold and wheeling and dealing. And they take more risks. There are a quite a few of people whose net Gaian worth is measured in the billions.

I'd be jealous if my goal was to become the richest person on Gaia. Since it's not, I just hope they are having fun with what they do.

Hype is a HUGE factor in Gaian pricing. Case in point: the Golden Wings, the bonus item from the Wild Hearts Valentine's Bundle. People were buying them like crazy because the prevailing thought was that as soon as they're out of the Cash Shop they're going to skyrocket. And most people thought they were going to be gone soon.

It's apparent that they're hanging around a lot longer than expected and a lot of people are not only stopping buying them but are dumping them because they're not the get rich quick item everyone expected them to be. So the price has fallen from a pretty steady 400K - 450K to around 300K.

The funny thing is that I like them as an investment at 300K far better than 400K. And they still are an inherently nice item. It's just going to take a lot longer to realize the profit than most people anticipated.

Quote:
Anyway, I have decided now to definitely not push all my gold on to one investment, and though I've collected some Sashes/Laurels, I'm going to span out my investments a bit.

Anyone have any suggestions on what else I should invest in?... again, I have 6 mil. XD


I want to say again that I don't hate the Nitemare Sash/Silver Laurels as an investment, I just don't think they're the slam dunk everyone says they are for a lot of reasons. Yes, long term they've got great potential, but it's going to be rocky in the short term.

My big suggestion for investing is not to invest all your capital. Even though gold doesn't earn interest or rise with inflation, what you get for that is flexibility - and since we're seeing some nice price drops, it's worth it (to me at least) to have that flexibility to take advantage of the unexpected opportunities coming along.


The next question is what time frame are you looking for and what level of risk are you willing to take? If you're looking long term and lower risk, popular recent MCs are generally pretty safe.

RIG items are riskier - the prices are lowest in the second to third week the RIG is out. However, these items have a habit of showing up again, sometimes in the next RIG. If you invest in RIG items you have to be patient enough to hold them until they're not in the current RIG, and then sell before they show up again. Since no one knows when they show up again (like Pale Marionette showed up in the current one), it's got some risk. It's also got lots of room for profit.

EIs are probably second in safety to MCs. Their risk is who the artist is and that you don't know what you're getting. First gens of EIs by popular artists are reasonably safe - but they're also pricey. I'm starting to play around more with later gens - they cost less than first gens, but when they finish their evolution the price often comes near a first gen, and the difference in purchase price makes for better a better profit margin. The risk is that you have to hold them until they finish evolving.

A number of higher priced EIs are finishing their evolutions, so there will be new EIs coming out, and that's an opportunity to keep an eye on.

I hesitate to recommend any specific item because even though I know you know better, I've seen so many other people read a recommendation as "buy as many as you can afford at any price", which causes inadvertent AI and is a dumb move overall. When I like an item as an investment it's not just the item, it's also the current price point that makes it attractive.


purplewiz

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PostPosted: Sat Apr 24, 2010 6:12 pm


I hope I can use your advice well, too, Purplewiz.

I have been investing in scattershot items.

A gambino egg here, a silver laurel there, the odd winged anklets or kiki kitty, assorted other prettyful MCs, and some recent sponsor and event stuff, plus starmonies (12 - 10 k each! gonk )
PostPosted: Sun May 16, 2010 4:10 pm


The Secret Retreats are right around 600k. For a $7.50 item this is a cheap price so far. The pixels are well done so I know the price will raise when we get bigger and better evos.
I'm hoarding these while the price is cheap. If you guys have the patience you can do the same.  

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Une Saison En Enfer

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PostPosted: Sat Jun 05, 2010 8:40 pm


Thanks for the advice on the Secret Retreat... I always miss the boat on hoarding Evos, but I hoarded one away since I have high hopes for this item and I needed to spend the rest of my investment gold in something.
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MP Center - Marketplace Discussion!

 
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