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 Posted: Sun Apr 16, 2006 9:56 pm
Hmm This may be off topic but I need opinions and views on my Chain Reaction Theory so it will have some form of a base. As I'm sure some of you know I am one of the Founders of W.A.M.M, but my roots are here at L.A.I.D cool I'm sure most of you know I am doing my part in combating the AI, such as put up a PriceGuide, got a Petition going ( Lord Mephisto is in charge of the Petition) Getting banners done, trying to talk others into not buying for the AI'd price in hopes it will drop, ect.
In the mean time I have thought of a Theory and I need opinions and views on it from many members.
Chain Reaction Theory.
They target certain lower items, in doing so they jack the price of the lower items up, forcing the higher items to go up in price aswell. Say it takes 4 Horns of the Demon to get 1 Nitemare Scarf. The AI groups Jack the Horns of the Demon up and force them to double in Price so now it would take a mere 2 Demon horns to obtain 1 Nitemare scarf. Users refuse to sell their Nitemare Scarf for 2 Horns, so they demand 4 to maintain that first rule. So the Price of the Nitemare Scarves jack up aswell.
The Items given here in the Example are just an Example. Could be used with anything. For instance, say it takes 3 DJ's to get a Grizzly. They jack the DJ's up so it would only take 2 Dj's to get a Grizzly. The Grizzly owners dont care to sell for just two so they demand three pushing the price of the Grizzly up.
Lower items jack up and a Chain Reaction begins to set in. With the Price going up with the lower items the somewhat higher items begin to go up aswell. With those somewhat Higher items going up the even higher items go up too.
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Posted: Mon Apr 17, 2006 6:31 am
well i dont really have an opinion towards this theory but really i just think its quite sad. if things keep going up new members joining gaia will have a terrible time gaining non-commons
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Posted: Mon Apr 17, 2006 7:27 am
I can most definitely agree.
That is why I am also trying to talk out some inflationists about how short term their thinking would be. In doing so, they do place things out of reach even for themselves. Then again, most who already do so have enough items to begin with.
They forget to consider the importance of ratios in terms of the much older items which they are also trying to get.
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Posted: Mon Apr 17, 2006 8:50 am
It definatley happens that way. 3nodding
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Posted: Mon Apr 17, 2006 9:06 am
I definantely agree with this, I'm one of the latter people.
I've been selling Minis with a friend on another account, and with the Oct03 inflation it's been frustrating.
We were paying Tail + Sash + 2000k before, now you'd be lucky to get Tail + Sash + 1500k out of them. sweatdrop
It's almost got to the point where we're gonna hold the Minis until either they go up or the Oct03 items go down some.
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Posted: Mon Apr 17, 2006 10:22 am
It's not theory, it's FACT. This is the basic law of inflation in the real world, even. That's why there's such a thing as minimum wage in countries like Canada; inflation has caused necessities to go up so high that a minimum wage must be provided in order for people to survive.
The problem with Gaia is that you don't need any item to survive, and you don't even need to work to get gold (lurk gold, etc). As a result, there's no agreed need to control anything in the market. There's no economics specialists among the admin because there's no basic need for it, just the want.
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Posted: Mon Apr 17, 2006 2:26 pm
Muahahaha, Thank you all for your posts. blaugh
Sunni: Yes, it is very sad they they would do that, making it pretty much impossible for the newer Gaians to Obtain an item of their choice. The Horns of the demon are popular so a lot of people would like some of them, but they have been jacked up in price so much. @_@
Xyzse: XDDD Duuuude, you so have a Point. They Jack prices up> Chain Reaction sets in> Everything goes up> Out of their reach. rofl
Frosted: Thanks, I tried to tell someone that but she didnt wanna believe me.
Extreme: Well, If I were you I'd hold onto the Minis until everything settles back out. No telling when that will be though. Or you can demand a higher price, and dont sell until you get it. But that wouldnt help the cause too much. cool
Slanzer: Thank you for your wise post. cool I have learned something. domokun
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Posted: Tue Apr 18, 2006 3:02 am
To add to your chain reaction theory... there's also chain reaction amongst fellow sellers of a particular item, now that prices have gone up almost globally.
Using a general example here;
Seller A's mindset: Okay, I'll use the handy '100-under-lowest' rule. *prices item at 1k*
Inflationist: I think I'll take this 1k item and inflate it!
Seller B's mindset: Oh, no! Prices have risen recently! I can't use the 100-under rule, I need to price it higher!
Inflationist: Time to move on to a new item
Seller C's mindset: Well, prices haven't inflated recently, but they could inflate again! I need to price high!
Basically, to sum this up in a nutshell; everyone's so paranoid of the inflation at this point that they themselves are causing inflation by trying to price their item at what they -think- the inflation will push it to in the near future. People still buy the lowest priced items, the sellers keep selling them higher and higher, and the natural inflation goes all to hell.
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Posted: Tue Apr 18, 2006 9:52 am
 @faladyne: lol. I kinda agree. I'm kinda like that, except in buying now.
I'm afraid to even buy stuff because I don't trust myself in valueing the prices. x.x The only things I can buy are commons. xDD
Digital: but there's gotta be an end point to it, isn't there?
I mean, is it just gonna continue going up and up and up? By the way you guys are describing it, it seems in the end, it's just gonna be all the 03 and 04 members trading items and golds back and forth while the rest of us just sit and watch. confused That certainly sounds and looks no fun...
...well...I suppose there are suppose rich people [people who have money IRL xDD] that could just donate to gaia and sell a bunch of seals a nd stuffs and then join the fun of trading...
You are blessed by Death.
Welcome to the Afterlife.
Beware.
Enjoy. <3
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Posted: Tue Apr 18, 2006 7:47 pm
Very interesting. 3nodding
I was talking to a friend about that.
I sorta said something like, when you inflate one item, other items will counter-inflate to keep the ratio the same. Something along those lines. 3nodding xP
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Posted: Tue Apr 18, 2006 11:05 pm
I actually theorize that eventually... since the ratio between items will never change... that you're going to end up with almost every single donation item at ungodly high prices; like a KiKi Kitty at 1 million gold, or something silly like that.
At that point, the marketplace will stagnate because who the hell can earn up 1 million gold in any decent amount of time at that point? And there's only so many people with enough gold to snatch up lower priced items (because eventually sellers will get frusterated and downprice their items) that EVENTUALLY the item prices will completely flatline... probably see the lowest prices you've ever seen at that point.
If I had to take a wild guess, and keeping the rate of inflation constant... I'd say this flatlining will probably occur in roughly 6-8 months.
This is just idle speculation, mind you... but it goes along with the concept of the item price ratios, else I would have made a new thread XD
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Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2006 7:24 am
I can definitely agree.
I am trying to see if it can be influenced to reach that flat-line point before that.
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Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2006 6:34 pm
Faladyne I actually theorize that eventually... since the ratio between items will never change... that you're going to end up with almost every single donation item at ungodly high prices; like a KiKi Kitty at 1 million gold, or something silly like that. At that point, the marketplace will stagnate because who the hell can earn up 1 million gold in any decent amount of time at that point? And there's only so many people with enough gold to snatch up lower priced items (because eventually sellers will get frusterated and downprice their items) that EVENTUALLY the item prices will completely flatline... probably see the lowest prices you've ever seen at that point. If I had to take a wild guess, and keeping the rate of inflation constant... I'd say this flatlining will probably occur in roughly 6-8 months. This is just idle speculation, mind you... but it goes along with the concept of the item price ratios, else I would have made a new thread XD Somehow that just seems like wishful thinking... I mean I can agree that prices will probably get to a point and just stay there... but I don't think they'll ever dramatically drop like you say... confused I wish they would though... it's just not right that prices are rising like they are.
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