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So me and a co-worker were talking about luck after we found a tail-side-up penny. This is the arguement the was birthed.

"In truth one can never knew whether luck truely exists due to the nature of luck. If one obtains bad-luck, one would expect something bad to happen, and if one obtains good luck, one would expect something good to happen. However, what if by obtaining bad-luck, something good, that would of happened, doesn't happen, and by obtaining good-luck. something bad, that would of happened, doesn't as well. Therefore, insted of luck being the occurance of something good or bad, it's the prevention of something good or bad. And in this setting, unless the possible future could be known, one could never tell if the effect of luck had occured at all."

I think it's a nasty little arguement. Since there's no way to prove that something good or bad didn't happen, there's no way to prove that there is no such thing as luck. It kind of reminds of the arguement for god. You know the whole "it is impossible to disprove" thing. But what do you all think about it?

My definition of "luck" is roughly something like this: "in a set of random outcomes, a heavy imbalance towards one possible outcome". I don't think luck is a force that can be influenced. All it is, in my opinion (and this is probably a better way of putting it), is a noticably large statistical anomaly. I don't feel lucky unless, for the most part, this anomaly has worked in my favor for a few prior attempts, with favorable outcomes in the previous trials. If that is the case, then I have good reason to believe that it will continue, for the majority, to tilt in my favor. If the average drops back, then I become more wary of my chances for a favorable outcome.

I try to use the word carefully, to avoid any complications.

Someone can get lucky, in the sense that they came out ahead of the odds. But they cannot BE lucky, in sense that they have the attribute of being lucky... if you see what I mean.

I hate the english language sad

But it avoids, at least, the idea of luck "existing".

No, this topic was actually the first time I thought about luck, and it brought me to realize that it's sort of a matter of probability. I developed a working explanation from there that satisfied me in plausibility.

I've always been more of a Han Solo fan myself. razz

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