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 Posted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 3:47 pm
Allegro adfsiubeg WE DON'T KNOW THATWith FOUR kills a night, the Doctor's odds of saving someone are MUCH higher than a normal game! I know. The only other question I have is the FF neutral, or what? It says they are Town & Mafia, so I'm confused by that. If they are on either, then it would be smart not to ranndom-kill.
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Posted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 3:47 pm
Can't find quote, but I wasn't suspicious of Zach for rando-voting, more that he and Mizu had singular targets like mafian Dulnair. But I discounted the suspicion on Mizu's part, at least, since that was purely random. As for Zach, it seems like he just wants results, so I don't think he's most suspicious right now.
Anyways, there is, like, a .4% chance that whoever the mafia FF may or may not have targeted was saved by the doctor, so personally, I'm discounting that and saying either the FF was inactive yesterday or chose not to use their role. But why not use the role at the beginning of the game when there was the smallest chance of hitting the bulimic? I think either ILI or Kath are mafia, specifically the FF.
Side notes:
- lol to Maru and Zeph. Do it!!!!
- I couldn't find any V-Day candy at my Walmart!! sad Did get a mini-heart cupcake baker, though...
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Posted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 3:50 pm
There's a 4 in 19 chance of the Doc saving someone on night 1. Those are CRAZY high odds for a Doc. why are you ignoring this aahhhhhh
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Posted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 3:53 pm
l-Kathulu-l Allegro adfsiubeg WE DON'T KNOW THATWith FOUR kills a night, the Doctor's odds of saving someone are MUCH higher than a normal game! I know. The only other question I have is the FF neutral, or what? It says they are Town & Mafia, so I'm confused by that. If they are on either, then it would be smart not to ranndom-kill. Each side has an FF. So, the Town gets a kill at night (accounted for with Dulnair's death), the Mafia get town (one is unaccounted for), and the SK gets one (accounted for.)
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Posted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 3:53 pm
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Posted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 3:55 pm
SoThatAznGirl Can't find quote, but I wasn't suspicious of Zach for rando-voting, more that he and Mizu had singular targets like mafian Dulnair. But I discounted the suspicion on Mizu's part, at least, since that was purely random. As for Zach, it seems like he just wants results, so I don't think he's most suspicious right now.
Anyways, there is, like, a .4% chance that whoever the mafia FF may or may not have targeted was saved by the doctor, so personally, I'm discounting that and saying either the FF was inactive yesterday or chose not to use their role. But why not use the role at the beginning of the game when there was the smallest chance of hitting the bulimic? I think either ILI or Kath are mafia, specifically the FF.
Side notes:
- lol to Maru and Zeph. Do it!!!!
- I couldn't find any V-Day candy at my Walmart!! sad Did get a mini-heart cupcake baker, though... is your walmart a small store cause we always have a s**t load of candy left after the holidays and it usually takes a few weeks to get rid of it all. i hate my walmart
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Posted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 3:56 pm
Allegro There's a 4 in 19 chance of the Doc saving someone on night 1. Those are CRAZY high odds for a Doc. why are you ignoring this aahhhhhh
Anyways, have to leave now. sad Don't post too much, lol. I won't be back til 11pm, probably.
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Posted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 3:57 pm
Allegro There's a 4 in 19 chance of the Doc saving someone on night 1. Those are CRAZY high odds for a Doc. why are you ignoring this aahhhhhh Because it's still a 1/15 chance of it not saving someone. That and the chances of them picking the same person is like 1/30, or something. I'm bad at math, but point made. And even then for Metagaming, I see 3 or 4 people here that would be Metagamed, those chances are someone what better, but still. And okay on the FF. So Mafia was unaccounted for (as in did not role kill) and seeing how they would know the other Mafia alignment, they should have no reason not to kill. So either the Doc got them, slightly possible, or they were inactive, slightly more probable.
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Posted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 4:04 pm
Somehow I'm not suspicious of Kath for inactivity just yet....I mean, maybe that'd be more incriminating if it continued for more than yesterday. But than again....
Kath, where WERE you yesterday? >_>
Also, I don't trust the tone in SAL's posts. Literally just a gut-feeling, but something seemed off when I read hers, and I was glad to see that Allegro caught that whiff too.
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Posted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 4:07 pm
If/when I disappear for hours at a time, it's because of Rift. 3nodding
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Posted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 4:10 pm
SoThatAznGirl I don't understand this. Three out of four possible kills happened last night, right? Well, let's say the doctor can choose 1 out of 19 people to protect. The mafia feeder has a pool of 14 or 15, because they should not be trying to kill off their own team mates. 19x14 becomes how many possible combos of target choices, and only 1 has the doctor's protection aligning with the FF's kill. That's a 1/266 chance, or .4%, highly unlikely that an active FF was role blocked by the doc.
Remember, it's not just one attacker you have to figure in. I'm not sure what the equation would be for that. It's...um. The mafia get two targets out of 14. The SK gets 1 out of 18. So does the townie FF. The doc gets one out of 19. Assuming that the killers attack different targets (which seems to be the case), there are 4 out of 19 potential targets the doctor could save. I'm not sure what the equation there is, because I'm bad at math. But in a normal game (one mafia and an SK, for instance), on night one, our guy has significantly lower odds of protecting someone. That's what I'm trying to say. We can't discount the Doctor: with so much carnage they're gonna be hugely important.
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Posted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 4:17 pm
Medeus Somehow I'm not suspicious of Kath for inactivity just yet....I mean, maybe that'd be more incriminating if it continued for more than yesterday. But than again.... Kath, where WERE you yesterday? >_> Also, I don't trust the tone in SAL's posts. Literally just a gut-feeling, but something seemed off when I read hers, and I was glad to see that Allegro caught that whiff too. >Worked after school >Went home >Ate >Went to school >Got home >Showered >Homework >11:30 >Mom - "Let me use your laptop I have to pay bills. It'll only take 10 minutes" >12:14 >Me - "Can I have my laptop?" >Mom - "I never get to go on anything or check anything or do an-" >Me - "Goodnight" That was about it.
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Posted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 4:19 pm
l-Kathulu-l Medeus Somehow I'm not suspicious of Kath for inactivity just yet....I mean, maybe that'd be more incriminating if it continued for more than yesterday. But than again.... Kath, where WERE you yesterday? >_> Also, I don't trust the tone in SAL's posts. Literally just a gut-feeling, but something seemed off when I read hers, and I was glad to see that Allegro caught that whiff too. >Worked after school >Went home >Ate >Went to school >Got home >Showered >Homework >11:30 >Mom - "Let me use your laptop I have to pay bills. It'll only take 10 minutes" >12:14 >Me - "Can I have my laptop?" >Mom - "I never get to go on anything or check anything or do an-" >Me - "Goodnight" That was about it. Don't forget "updated facebook on phone twice" during that period. I did most of my posting today from mine. I WILL ALWAYS FIND A WAY TO BE A MAFIA PLATYPUS
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Posted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 4:24 pm
Allegro Don't forget "updated facebook on phone twice" during that period. I did most of my posting today from mine. I WILL ALWAYS FIND A WAY TO BE A MAFIA PLATYPUS
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Posted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 4:37 pm
Allegro l-Kathulu-l Medeus Somehow I'm not suspicious of Kath for inactivity just yet....I mean, maybe that'd be more incriminating if it continued for more than yesterday. But than again.... Kath, where WERE you yesterday? >_> Also, I don't trust the tone in SAL's posts. Literally just a gut-feeling, but something seemed off when I read hers, and I was glad to see that Allegro caught that whiff too. >Worked after school >Went home >Ate >Went to school >Got home >Showered >Homework >11:30 >Mom - "Let me use your laptop I have to pay bills. It'll only take 10 minutes" >12:14 >Me - "Can I have my laptop?" >Mom - "I never get to go on anything or check anything or do an-" >Me - "Goodnight" That was about it. Don't forget "updated facebook on phone twice" during that period. I did most of my posting today from mine. I WILL ALWAYS FIND A WAY TO BE A MAFIA PLATYPUS I don't have the patience to do that, lol. Posting is a b***h on that.
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