Opening the Alchemist's Case: Probabilities (Pie Chart!)

[Platonix]

The Alchemist's Case. The Final Frontier repository of Gaia's most valuable Alchemy Formulas, and a frustrating RIG both to craft and to open. This thread's purpose is to measure and report the probabilities of getting any particular one of the 89 different formulas that can be found within...just so you'll know what you're getting into if you want to try for one.

Here's the data we've gotten so far, from opening 2,670 Alchemist's Cases:

Sorted by Rarity First

75x Formula 6: Jade and Black Short Keido Wig
64x Formula 9: Radiant Heart Headband
62x Formula 7: Black and Red Long Keido Wig
61x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion C
61x Formula 6: White and Gold Short Keido Wig
60x Formula 6: Blue and Silver Short Keido Wig
60x Formula 9: T-1011 Cyborg Endo Skeleton
58x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion C
58x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion E
58x Formula 7: Gold and Black Long Keido Wig
57x Formula 8: Gardener's Red Twin Curls
56x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion A
55x Formula 7: White and Navy Long Keido Wig
54x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion E
54x Formula 9: Aquamarine Porridge Locks
52x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion D
50x Formula 8: Rainbow Pixie Wings
48x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion F
48x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion B
47x Formula 2: Norman
47x Formula 8: Gardener's Brown Twin Curls
47x Formula 9: Violet Porridge Locks
44x Formula 9: Rose Porridge Locks
44x Formula 10: Lunarian's Mint Bao
43x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion D
42x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion B
42x Formula 8: Gardener's Blonde Twin Curls
41x Formula 10: Lunarian's Pink Bao
40x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion A
40x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion F
35x Formula 7: Low Candy Horns
34x Formula 4: Uni Candy Horn
34x Formula 7: Grace Meow
34x Formula 10: Lunarian's Blonde Bao
33x Formula 3: MANtis Sr
33x Formula 4: MANnequin
33x Formula 7: Jagged Candy Horns
32x Formula 6: WoMAN
32x Formula 7: Pokeman
30x Formula 6: Hooked Candy Horns
30x Formula 10: Erebus' Moon
29x Formula 8: MANga-kun
28x Formula 3: BroMANce
27x Formula 4: Silly Candy Horns
27x Formula 6: Arrow Candy Horns
27x Formula 7: MANthro
26x Formula 5: VitaMAN
25x Formula 8: Triple Candy Horns
25x Formula 9: Lace Meow
25x Formula 10: Minthamella
24x Formula 8: Long Candy Horns
23x Formula 6: Forked Candy Horns
23x Formula 7: Pointy Candy Horns
22x Formula 8: Space Meow
21x Formula 5: BathMan
21x Formula 5: Single Candy Horn
21x Formula 7: Liam Companion
20x Formula 8: Edmund Companion
19x Formula 8: MANinthemoon
18x Formula 6: Sasha Companion
17x Formula 10: Glacemella
16x Formula 7: Sam Companion
16x Formula 8: Nicolae Companion
15x Formula 6: Ruby Companion
15x Formula 10: Custard
14x Formula 5: Dual Candy Horns
14x Formula 9: Ian Companion
13x Formula 9: Louie Companion
13x Formula 9: O'Manan
12x Formula 7: Tall Candy Horns
12x Formula 10: Cream
11x Formula 10: Butter
11x Formula 10: Case Meow
10x Formula 4: Wicked Loud Horn
9x Formula 9: Moira Companion
9x Formula 9: Spiral Candy Horns
9x Formula 10: Aurora Kitten Star
9x Formula 10: Cat Faces
9x Formula 10: Gentleman
8x Formula 1: Celestial Quest Inizio
8x Formula 9: Curled Candy Horns
8x Formula 10: Nice Suit for Work
7x Formula 1: Angelic Quest Inizio
7x Formula 10: HARMony
7x Formula 10: Risky Angels
4x Formula 1: Fallen Quest Inizio
3x Formula 1: Demonic Quest Inizio
3x Formula 1: Devilish Quest Inizio
2x Formula 1: Risen Quest Inizio

Sorted by Level First

8x Formula 1: Celestial Quest Inizio
7x Formula 1: Angelic Quest Inizio
4x Formula 1: Fallen Quest Inizio
3x Formula 1: Demonic Quest Inizio
3x Formula 1: Devilish Quest Inizio
2x Formula 1: Risen Quest Inizio
47x Formula 2: Norman
33x Formula 3: MANtis Sr
28x Formula 3: BroMANce
34x Formula 4: Uni Candy Horn
33x Formula 4: MANnequin
27x Formula 4: Silly Candy Horns
10x Formula 4: Wicked Loud Horn
61x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion C
58x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion C
58x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion E
56x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion A
54x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion E
52x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion D
48x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion F
48x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion B
43x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion D
42x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion B
40x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion A
40x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion F
26x Formula 5: VitaMAN
21x Formula 5: BathMan
21x Formula 5: Single Candy Horn
14x Formula 5: Dual Candy Horns
75x Formula 6: Jade and Black Short Keido Wig
61x Formula 6: White and Gold Short Keido Wig
60x Formula 6: Blue and Silver Short Keido Wig
32x Formula 6: WoMAN
30x Formula 6: Hooked Candy Horns
27x Formula 6: Arrow Candy Horns
23x Formula 6: Forked Candy Horns
18x Formula 6: Sasha Companion
15x Formula 6: Ruby Companion
62x Formula 7: Black and Red Long Keido Wig
58x Formula 7: Gold and Black Long Keido Wig
55x Formula 7: White and Navy Long Keido Wig
35x Formula 7: Low Candy Horns
34x Formula 7: Grace Meow
33x Formula 7: Jagged Candy Horns
32x Formula 7: Pokeman
27x Formula 7: MANthro
23x Formula 7: Pointy Candy Horns
21x Formula 7: Liam Companion
16x Formula 7: Sam Companion
12x Formula 7: Tall Candy Horns
57x Formula 8: Gardener's Red Twin Curls
50x Formula 8: Rainbow Pixie Wings
47x Formula 8: Gardener's Brown Twin Curls
42x Formula 8: Gardener's Blonde Twin Curls
29x Formula 8: MANga-kun
25x Formula 8: Triple Candy Horns
24x Formula 8: Long Candy Horns
22x Formula 8: Space Meow
20x Formula 8: Edmund Companion
19x Formula 8: MANinthemoon
16x Formula 8: Nicolae Companion
64x Formula 9: Radiant Heart Headband
60x Formula 9: T-1011 Cyborg Endo Skeleton
54x Formula 9: Aquamarine Porridge Locks
47x Formula 9: Violet Porridge Locks
44x Formula 9: Rose Porridge Locks
25x Formula 9: Lace Meow
14x Formula 9: Ian Companion
13x Formula 9: Louie Companion
13x Formula 9: O'Manan
9x Formula 9: Moira Companion
9x Formula 9: Spiral Candy Horns
8x Formula 9: Curled Candy Horns
44x Formula 10: Lunarian's Mint Bao
41x Formula 10: Lunarian's Pink Bao
34x Formula 10: Lunarian's Blonde Bao
30x Formula 10: Erebus' Moon
25x Formula 10: Minthamella
17x Formula 10: Glacemella
15x Formula 10: Custard
12x Formula 10: Cream
11x Formula 10: Butter
11x Formula 10: Case Meow
9x Formula 10: Aurora Kitten Star
9x Formula 10: Cat Faces
9x Formula 10: Gentleman
8x Formula 10: Nice Suit for Work
7x Formula 10: HARMony
7x Formula 10: Risky Angels

A more precise pie chart of this data would hurt to look at (trust me, I've constructed it. 0.< ), so let me toss some percentages at you to give you a rough idea of what we're dealing with.

The most commonly reported formula, the Jade and Black Short Keido Wig, has had 75 draws reported. Out of a total of 2670 draws, that's a 2.81% chance. So even if the formula you want is among the most common, you could still open two dozen Alchemist's Cases and have less than a coin-flip's chance of getting it.

The least commonly reported formula, Risen Quest Inizio, has only been drawn and reported twice. Out of a total of 2670 draws, that's a 0.07% chance. So, roughly one in every 1,250 Alchemist's Cases is going to contain that formula.

The six different Backwings formulas have been drawn (and reported) a total of 27 times. Out of a total of 2670 draws, that's a roughly 1.01% chance to draw a Backwings formula, any Backwings formula.

Good luck! twisted




Can't get enough of gathering probability data? Check out these other threads!

Opening the Base Cache: Probabilities
A thread that does for the base Philosopher's Cache what this one does for the Alchemist's Case.
What Are The Odds? (Collating Crafting Chances)
Check out this thread if you want to know how many times you're likely to fail when crafting a formula!

[Misfortuned Checkmate]

Bump

[Sharacia]

This thread is now listed in:

[Platonix]

I've updated the data in the first post, but the only info I had to add was the seven Cases I've opened since I made the thread. Also, by request I've added the chance of drawing any of the six Backwings formulas.

Anyone else out there opening Alchemist's Cases?

[Misfortuned Checkmate]

X _ x
We need more data on this thing...

[Platonix]

From now on, I'm going to update the OP every time I get any new data for it. It'll be easier that way. I won't necessarily bother bumping the thread, since one new data point is usually trivial...although, this time, I did break the four-way tie for most common formula.

[II Pomy II]

I could have provided soooo much data for this thread. I have opened nearly 1000 cases since this thread was made.

Perhaps I'll inform you from now on. (I have send all my formulas to my mule, to start fresh)

[Platonix]

Wow, it's been a while since this thread was posted to. I just gave the OP a very minor update, so I might as well BUMP while I'm at it!

[youkoonna]

Wow, I don't like the odds for them there quest formulas. xd

But I figure I'll try making 100-200 Cases before making a decision whether to continue the quest. smile

[Platonix]

Bump. No further data, but maybe bumping it will get someone who has data to notice the thread.

[Yourlocalhobo]

Platonix

Bump. No further data, but maybe bumping it will get someone who has data to notice the thread.

Thank you for taking this over :3
I had some issues logging in and whenever I tried to update the old thread, my computer reset and I had to start over. sad

I opened quite a few but I'll let you know the results once I've opened a few hundred more most likely surprised

[CherryblueSky]

I am full of sad crying

40 Cases:

1 x Formula 3: Mantis Sr
1 x Formula 4: MANnequin
1 x Formula 4: Silly Candy Horns
1 x Formula 4: Uni Candy Horn
1 x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion B
1 x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion D
2 x Formula 5: Floating Angel Imp Potion F
4 x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion B
1 x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion D
1 x Formula 5: Floating Devil Imp Potion E
1 x Formula 5: Vitaman
1 x Formula 6: Blue and Silver Short Keido Wig
2 x Formula 6: White and Gold Short Keido Wig
1 x Formula 7: Jagged Candy Horns
2 x Formula 7: Low Candy Horns
3 x Formula 7: Grace Meow
1 x Formula 7: Black and Red Long Keido Wig
1 x Formula 8: Edmund Companion
1 x Formula 8: Gardener's Blonde Twin Curls
1 x Formula 8: Gardener's Red Twin Curls
1 x Formula 8: MANga-kun
1 x Formula 9: Ian Companion
1 x Formula 9: Louie Companion
1 x Formula 9: Rose Porridge Locks
1 x Formula 9: Violet Porridge Locks
2 x Formula 9: Radiant Heart Headband
1 x Formula 9: T-1011 Cyborg Endo Skeleton
1 x Formula 10: Erebus' Moon
1 x Formula 10: Glacemella
1 x Formula 10: Lunarian's Mint Bao
1 x Formula 10: Lunarian's Pink Bao

emotion_donotwant

[Bernie Denem]

Anyone else who have Ice Crystal?

[Platonix]

CherryblueSky's data added to the OP. Could be worse; at least Erebus' Moon is a decent seller...

[Vallyyn]

I crafted one, and got Formula 2: Norman