Kata Samoes
BlairVoyant
Actually, potential is entirely relevant to any decision. If I said to you, Hey, want to spend $10 for a chance to win $1million? your next question, if you are sane, will be, what are the chances? If I say I will flip a coin, of course you will suspect it of being weighted, but if it can be proven that the test is in fact random, you'd be a fool to turn it down (or really not be able to afford losing $10, or be religiously opposed, or whatever) however, if the chances are one in 10 million, then you'd be a fool to take up such low odds (that's 1/100 return risk-benefit-wise.) If the odds are, say, one in 10,000, then they are low enough that the risk isn't really easy to justify, but there is still a 10:1 payout factor. The fact that there is a 10:1 payout factor is entirely relevant to many people's decisions - the potential is such that, given 100000 tries, they would come out with roughly 10 times as much money as they spent. Some can't afford to drop $10, and some would go for it even if the payout factor was low, for whatever reason. But we're not talking about extremes, here. People who will abort no matter what even if it's illegal and people who won't abort no matter what even if their life is in danger are not the ones whose very decisions will be influenced by the legal and social climate.
Potential may be potential relevant depending on the subjecy and type of discussion, even then in passing or for personal thought. In this case, however, potential is irrelevant in this debate as it's mostly legal debate and is easily countered with negatives.
No. In the post I quoted, the argument is, specifically, "it might become a person." When you counter with the negative, "it might not become a person," you are superimposing onto the argument that abortion causes the fetus not to become a person. Under other circumstances, such as "it might become the person who saves humanity from X!" a negative such as "It might become the person who causes Y!" is required; a simple "it might not" is not sufficient.
To relink this to my analogy: if I set the buy-in at $0, instead of $10, then there is nothing to lose except a few minutes of your time. Perhaps a 1 in 10 million chance isn't worth that to you, but a 1 in 10 chance to win $1mill should be. Granted, bringing up a child is somewhat more than a few minutes' effort, but potential is still relevant either way.
Besides, the legal system is based on potential anyway; a person has x chance to do this if it's legal, a*x chance to do it if the fine is a, b*x chance to do it if there is jail time, etc.
Kata Samoes
It's a fallacy for a reason, and arguing otherwise when it has no bearing on THIS debate and debating in general is unnecessary and off-topic.
What reason is that? I have never seen "argument from potential" listed as a fallacy in any compendium I've read. There is the "slippery slope" fallacy, but that is not what is happening, here.