10,000,000 Pages Hangout Thread

Happy Spring!

Happy Easter	33.8%	[ 106 ]
Happy birthday butterfly bumps	24.2%	[ 76 ]
Cake	23.2%	[ 73 ]
Poll	18.8%	[ 59 ]
Total Votes:			[ 314 ]

[DrefanKearse]

Bump

[DrefanKearse]

Bump

[DrefanKearse]

Bump

[plus instruments]

yum_puddi

[L3G1T]

yum_coffee

[L3G1T]

yum_coffee

[L3G1T]

yum_coffee

[L3G1T]

yum_coffee

[L3G1T]

yum_coffee

[Perma Bear]

Tariffs were way worse than any expectations by the street last week. My previous base case was a bottom on May OPEX, but given how fast this market drawdown has been, it is growing more likely that we’ll have a bottom sooner than later. If we use 2018 as historical precedent, that would mean this week beginning April 7 marks the bottom in the downturn as Powell capitulates. There is no Trump put, only a Powell put. There is no point in targeting a specific date for a bottom now due to how negative gamma has become. Instead, it’s better to look for two potential turnaround events, both of which have the power to end the selling.

The first is a compromise between the US and China. Other trading partners are seen as less significant, even Mexico and Canada, given the size of the two economies. If these two countries can reach even a small compromise, such as the agriculture truce of May 2018, markets will bottom and begin their V-shaped recovery due to the negotiating power it takes away from smaller economies. The second event to watch out for is Powell’s capitulation. Dec 19, 2018, Powell came out extremely hawkish. Dec 24, he pivoted dovish just as the Qs entered a bear market. Given that we have just entered a bear market on the Qs last Friday, Powell may be inclined to save Trump again. The longer the selling continues, the greater the chances of a black swan event. De-leveraging is on pace with COVID and SVB, which means if left alone, we will face the black swan. When and where? Who knows.

For now, it’s better to remain short until we see the US-China compromise or the black swan event. Keep trade position sizing extra small, since longs can keep bleeding and markets are entering zones where previous intervention has occurred. I personally would refrain from any short term trades and only DCA into long term investments at this time.

Macro events: CPI, Inflation exp.
Earnings: Earnings season begins. Banks, AEHR

Bull:
AMZN- Conditional bullish pick. If a compromise with China occurs, AMZN is my top pick. We have shut down the economy and AMZN has priced in much of that uncertainty. Taking off that weight should significantly bolster investor sentiment about AMZN.

NFLX- Conditional bullish pick. If Powell capitulates, NFLX is my top pick. If no compromise with China is reached, I expect some of the bearishness priced into AMZN to bleed into guidance. NFLX is highly sheltered from this trade war, and will be especially resilient if a recession materializes from the lack of compromise.

Neutral:
I am expecting another gap lower on monday. If this happens, profit take shorts and sit on your hands. I would be surprised if Powell allowed the markets to continue to bleed for very long.

Bear:
Gold is unfavored here. Liquidity is drying up in the market downturn scenario, reducing gold inflows. A bullish catalyst should also result in outflows as investors pool back into risk assets. Both scenarios do not bode well for gold in the short term. If Powell introduces QE back, gold is back to being bullish.

——————————
Positions– : 

4/11
<60 TQQQ

4/17
>7 SOXL .62

5/16
>420 QQQ  1.71, <480 1.16
<400 QQQ -2.72
>290 GLD -4.33
<200 AMZN 2.62
550/560/565 butterfly SPY -1.95

6/20
COST >1000 5.9,
^<985 5.13 (1x), <1100 1.85+1.25
>235 AMZN 7.03+.46, <225
>1030 NFLX 5.85, >1010 4.16


7/18

>1060 <1200 COST 13.17

8/15
>1060 COST 10.14, <1300 1.29

9/19



12/19


1/16/26

>500 APP 49.7, <510 4.81
>1060 COST 8.84 (also Asia’s acc), <1480 COST 1.1
^>985 COST 9.71
>1060 NFLX 10.02
>60 TQQQ 6.57

3/20/26
>250 AMZN 6.34+.52
>1050 NFLX 12.28, <1500 1.36
>1100 <1360 COST 13.86, >1040 <1260 14.57


6/18/26
>1000 COST .92

12/18/26

1/15/27
>35 TQQQ -30.89

12/17/27
>150 AMZN -78.05

———————————

-AAII Asset allocation- 75% stocks, 15% cash  marks a top
-Double is a bubble over a 3 year rolling return for indexes. >35 VIX - historically 100% 1 month positive, >27 almost perfect in similar timeframe.
—--------------------------------------
OPEX
-Jan, Feb, and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive
-Seasonality: Feb- AXON, JUL- XLK, NOV- COST

[Perma Bear]

Tariffs were way worse than any expectations by the street last week. My previous base case was a bottom on May OPEX, but given how fast this market drawdown has been, it is growing more likely that we’ll have a bottom sooner than later. If we use 2018 as historical precedent, that would mean this week beginning April 7 marks the bottom in the downturn as Powell capitulates. There is no Trump put, only a Powell put. There is no point in targeting a specific date for a bottom now due to how negative gamma has become. Instead, it’s better to look for two potential turnaround events, both of which have the power to end the selling.

The first is a compromise between the US and China. Other trading partners are seen as less significant, even Mexico and Canada, given the size of the two economies. If these two countries can reach even a small compromise, such as the agriculture truce of May 2018, markets will bottom and begin their V-shaped recovery due to the negotiating power it takes away from smaller economies. The second event to watch out for is Powell’s capitulation. Dec 19, 2018, Powell came out extremely hawkish. Dec 24, he pivoted dovish just as the Qs entered a bear market. Given that we have just entered a bear market on the Qs last Friday, Powell may be inclined to save Trump again. The longer the selling continues, the greater the chances of a black swan event. De-leveraging is on pace with COVID and SVB, which means if left alone, we will face the black swan. When and where? Who knows.

For now, it’s better to remain short until we see the US-China compromise or the black swan event. Keep trade position sizing extra small, since longs can keep bleeding and markets are entering zones where previous intervention has occurred. I personally would refrain from any short term trades and only DCA into long term investments at this time.

Macro events: CPI, Inflation exp.
Earnings: Earnings season begins. Banks, AEHR

Bull:
AMZN- Conditional bullish pick. If a compromise with China occurs, AMZN is my top pick. We have shut down the economy and AMZN has priced in much of that uncertainty. Taking off that weight should significantly bolster investor sentiment about AMZN.

NFLX- Conditional bullish pick. If Powell capitulates, NFLX is my top pick. If no compromise with China is reached, I expect some of the bearishness priced into AMZN to bleed into guidance. NFLX is highly sheltered from this trade war, and will be especially resilient if a recession materializes from the lack of compromise.

Neutral:
I am expecting another gap lower on monday. If this happens, profit take shorts and sit on your hands. I would be surprised if Powell allowed the markets to continue to bleed for very long.

Bear:
Gold is unfavored here. Liquidity is drying up in the market downturn scenario, reducing gold inflows. A bullish catalyst should also result in outflows as investors pool back into risk assets. Both scenarios do not bode well for gold in the short term. If Powell introduces QE back, gold is back to being bullish.

——————————
Positions– : 

4/11
<60 TQQQ

4/17
>7 SOXL .62

5/16
>420 QQQ  1.71, <480 1.16
<400 QQQ -2.72
>290 GLD -4.33
<200 AMZN 2.62
550/560/565 butterfly SPY -1.95

6/20
COST >1000 5.9,
^<985 5.13 (1x), <1100 1.85+1.25
>235 AMZN 7.03+.46, <225
>1030 NFLX 5.85, >1010 4.16


7/18

>1060 <1200 COST 13.17

8/15
>1060 COST 10.14, <1300 1.29

9/19



12/19


1/16/26

>500 APP 49.7, <510 4.81
>1060 COST 8.84 (also Asia’s acc), <1480 COST 1.1
^>985 COST 9.71
>1060 NFLX 10.02
>60 TQQQ 6.57

3/20/26
>250 AMZN 6.34+.52
>1050 NFLX 12.28, <1500 1.36
>1100 <1360 COST 13.86, >1040 <1260 14.57


6/18/26
>1000 COST .92

12/18/26

1/15/27
>35 TQQQ -30.89

12/17/27
>150 AMZN -78.05

———————————

-AAII Asset allocation- 75% stocks, 15% cash  marks a top
-Double is a bubble over a 3 year rolling return for indexes. >35 VIX - historically 100% 1 month positive, >27 almost perfect in similar timeframe.
—--------------------------------------
OPEX
-Jan, Feb, and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive
-Seasonality: Feb- AXON, JUL- XLK, NOV- COST

[Perma Bear]

Tariffs were way worse than any expectations by the street last week. My previous base case was a bottom on May OPEX, but given how fast this market drawdown has been, it is growing more likely that we’ll have a bottom sooner than later. If we use 2018 as historical precedent, that would mean this week beginning April 7 marks the bottom in the downturn as Powell capitulates. There is no Trump put, only a Powell put. There is no point in targeting a specific date for a bottom now due to how negative gamma has become. Instead, it’s better to look for two potential turnaround events, both of which have the power to end the selling.

The first is a compromise between the US and China. Other trading partners are seen as less significant, even Mexico and Canada, given the size of the two economies. If these two countries can reach even a small compromise, such as the agriculture truce of May 2018, markets will bottom and begin their V-shaped recovery due to the negotiating power it takes away from smaller economies. The second event to watch out for is Powell’s capitulation. Dec 19, 2018, Powell came out extremely hawkish. Dec 24, he pivoted dovish just as the Qs entered a bear market. Given that we have just entered a bear market on the Qs last Friday, Powell may be inclined to save Trump again. The longer the selling continues, the greater the chances of a black swan event. De-leveraging is on pace with COVID and SVB, which means if left alone, we will face the black swan. When and where? Who knows.

For now, it’s better to remain short until we see the US-China compromise or the black swan event. Keep trade position sizing extra small, since longs can keep bleeding and markets are entering zones where previous intervention has occurred. I personally would refrain from any short term trades and only DCA into long term investments at this time.

Macro events: CPI, Inflation exp.
Earnings: Earnings season begins. Banks, AEHR

Bull:
AMZN- Conditional bullish pick. If a compromise with China occurs, AMZN is my top pick. We have shut down the economy and AMZN has priced in much of that uncertainty. Taking off that weight should significantly bolster investor sentiment about AMZN.

NFLX- Conditional bullish pick. If Powell capitulates, NFLX is my top pick. If no compromise with China is reached, I expect some of the bearishness priced into AMZN to bleed into guidance. NFLX is highly sheltered from this trade war, and will be especially resilient if a recession materializes from the lack of compromise.

Neutral:
I am expecting another gap lower on monday. If this happens, profit take shorts and sit on your hands. I would be surprised if Powell allowed the markets to continue to bleed for very long.

Bear:
Gold is unfavored here. Liquidity is drying up in the market downturn scenario, reducing gold inflows. A bullish catalyst should also result in outflows as investors pool back into risk assets. Both scenarios do not bode well for gold in the short term. If Powell introduces QE back, gold is back to being bullish.

——————————
Positions– : 

4/11
<60 TQQQ

4/17
>7 SOXL .62

5/16
>420 QQQ  1.71, <480 1.16
<400 QQQ -2.72
>290 GLD -4.33
<200 AMZN 2.62
550/560/565 butterfly SPY -1.95

6/20
COST >1000 5.9,
^<985 5.13 (1x), <1100 1.85+1.25
>235 AMZN 7.03+.46, <225
>1030 NFLX 5.85, >1010 4.16


7/18

>1060 <1200 COST 13.17

8/15
>1060 COST 10.14, <1300 1.29

9/19



12/19


1/16/26

>500 APP 49.7, <510 4.81
>1060 COST 8.84 (also Asia’s acc), <1480 COST 1.1
^>985 COST 9.71
>1060 NFLX 10.02
>60 TQQQ 6.57

3/20/26
>250 AMZN 6.34+.52
>1050 NFLX 12.28, <1500 1.36
>1100 <1360 COST 13.86, >1040 <1260 14.57


6/18/26
>1000 COST .92

12/18/26

1/15/27
>35 TQQQ -30.89

12/17/27
>150 AMZN -78.05

———————————

-AAII Asset allocation- 75% stocks, 15% cash  marks a top
-Double is a bubble over a 3 year rolling return for indexes. >35 VIX - historically 100% 1 month positive, >27 almost perfect in similar timeframe.
—--------------------------------------
OPEX
-Jan, Feb, and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive
-Seasonality: Feb- AXON, JUL- XLK, NOV- COST

[Flux]

ninja

[c0rps3walker]

Thats a lot of PAGES!!!

[Miakaio]

bump