TONY Abbott's prime ministership now appears terminal.
He may not be replaced as leader this week, or even at next Tuesday's partyroom meeting.
But it now seems impossible for him to lead the party to an election in 2016.
There are open conversations about a joint Julie Bishop-Malcolm Turnbull ticket. The conversations are not around whether this ticket should replace Mr Abbott (and therefore also his Treasurer Joe Hockey).
Rather, the conversations are around which of the two would lead. Queensland MPs say that as they handed out how-to-vote cards at booths at the election on Saturday, voters were venting anger not just about Campbell Newman but about Tony Abbott.
Voters have kicked out two first-term conservatives governments, in Victoria and Queensland, in just two months.
Federal MPs now have a very real fear their Government could also be turfed out after just one term.
MPs were very keen to point out yesterday that their attempts to dislodge the Prime Minister were very different to Labor's political assassinations of Kevin Rudd, then Julia Gillard, who were taken out by factional foes.
Instead pressure is being brought to bear on the PM for him to stand aside.
This is a curious tactic, as the PM is a great political pugilist, a former boxer, rugby player and ironman -- he doesn't walk away when things get hard. Perhaps they're playing to his great loyalty, which could potentially see him walk away instead of digging in for a bloody fight.
But the MPs are correct in saying that, unlike with Labor, Mr Abbott was not undermined by ambitious Cabinet colleagues. Indeed many frustrated Cabinet members bit their lips and willed the PM to get his act together.
This is a rebellion led by backbenchers, who deal daily with unhappy voters.
The discussions now are what tactics to use to move the Prime Minister aside. Former Howard minister Mal Brough appears to have been put up as the stalking horse, using the same tactics as Abbott loyalist Kevin Andrews did back in 2009 to topple Mr Turnbull.
Mr Brough is not denying reports he is being urged to run for the leadership, possibly as soon as the first partyroom meeting on February 10.
This "suicide bomber'' approach would not see Mr Brough elected, but would clear the way for others to challenge. It seemed doubtful yesterday that Mr Brough has the simple majority he needs to bring that spill on. In the short term, MPs will use their powers of persuasion to encourage Mr Abbott to resign.
ellen.whinnett@news.com.au
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