Here are usually the most likely scenarios as of this point (with assist coming from volcanologist Dave McGarvie, a new must-follow in Twitter): Along With the particular crust currently fractured, it might be the matter of time prior to magma reaches the particular surface within big quantities, swiftly melting glacial ice and creating a jökulhlaup, or even glacial outburst flood. Melted ice could also quickly flip to steam and loft an enormous plume regarding ash in for you to the stratosphere:
On another hand, if merely a small amount regarding magma reaches your surface, there could do not be the noticeable symbol of this eruption around the surface:
A worst-case scenario, a new main fissure eruption, could carry on with regard to a couple of months as well as permanently adjust Iceland’s geography:
The Icelandic Achieved office estimates regarding 250 million cubic meters regarding magma have got filled any subsurface dyke, comparable to the Eyjafjallajökull eruption regarding 2010. (That has been the particular eruption that majorly disrupted air travel.) It’s even now really uncertain how much of this could occur straight into make contact with with the ice or even get to end up being able to the surface, or even how quick the actual eruption will progress. the very great news is that upper degree winds aren’t at present very strong over Iceland, and, based on an afternoon operate I performed associated with an ash trajectory model, ash from Bárðarbunga would affect just a small part of northern Europe.
On Saturday afternoon, I reached University Or College regarding Iceland anthropologist Gísli Pálsson by phone throughout downtown Reykjavik to get any sense of how Icelanders were using the particular news:
It's interesting. no one provides really observed your eruption consequently far, however all of the complex models in the geologists and in addition the data via earlier events indicate an eruption has really happened.
Everyone is actually about alert, nevertheless there is actually certainly absolutely no panic. Right now there might be a new major factor brewing, the size with the boiling lava on the actual bottom will be massive. It's large scale.
A stay webcam from Bárðarbunga can be available, ought to the particular ash cloud break via the particular ice later today.
For read much more about Bárðarbunga's history, read my Long Term Tense publish via Monday.
