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Post: 36828231_5741872 created on Thu, 16 May 2024 05:28:20 +0000
Posted: Thu, 16 May 2024 05:28:20 +0000

****PLAN YOUR TRADE AND TRADE YOUR PLAN****
Key dates: 5/14- GOOGL IO conference 5/15- CPI 5/21- MSFT build conference 5/22- NVDA Earnings

Ideas for Monday:
-Bull put spread NVDA >895 exp 5/31. NVDA has returned to being extremely bull skewed, with only slight bearishness emerging at 895 and below. >900, especially after CPI on Wednesday warrants bull call spreads that should be able to be closed profitably friday EoD
-bull puts CMG, WSM, NRG
-Long strangle IWM
-Wide Bear puts NVDA hedge
-VRT bull put/butterfly call

Positions– :

5/17: <1000 >840 NVDA, 970-975 Nvda -.84, <145 PDD .12, <539 SPY .05
5/24: -2.05 >145 PDD, 80 UBER -1.97, >170 GE 1.10 190-200 AMZN -1.99

6/21: 14-16 HIMS -.38, 230-240 SMH -3.2, 950-985 NVDA -5.37, 480-500 META -5.03, 425-435 MSFT -2.58, >290 AXON 3.00, >175 AMZN .43

-Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1

Events of the week: Powell speaks, PPI, CPI

Monday: Mester speaks, NY Fed inflation expectations
Tuesday: PPI, Powell
Wednesday: CPI, Retail sales
Thursday: Jobless claims, Atlanta fed GDP, fedspeak
Friday: Waller speech

Long ideas (4/21):
-AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
5/15: VRT- Core to data center power and cooling. Like a leveraged NVDA bet.

Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral)
-Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari
—--------------------------------------
Notes:
-Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive
-Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures)
-Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later.
-Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling
-cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing!
-Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).