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Alex The Dragon Tamer

PostPosted: Sat Jun 25, 2005 3:06 am


Okay, so you want to make a game guide, well the casino is a very unstable place at the moment... I could give you the reasons, but someone I know has done this already, I will state his quote here~ This is really long, but it really does help when thinking about the casino part of any "Game Guide" 3nodding


Friend
Right now, no one wants to buy, sell, or trade Casino items. I know, its a simple enough concept, its big and scary, but I've got an idea. Think about it for a moment though. If you look on the exchange, there are between 2 and zero threads dealing with Casino stuff any any given time.

There is a great delusion among Priceguides these days: That you can assign a flat rate or "current price" to Casino items as if they function on the same measure as others.

This is false. It is false because the Casino items are not based upon gold currency vs. popularity. They are based upon Casino ticket Vs. gold ratios /AND/ for the next month or two, item Id production number.

Item id production number is a relatively new idea, I have forgotten which guild it was that braught it up, but its a concept originally addressing the 1000+x variable defining who has "alpha" Halo, alpha panda hat, etc.

Currently, this means a couple of things for whatever guild is willing to do the work to corner the market.

ONE: a new integer can be, and IS being introduced to the value of an item. If you look at your guild id number, every guild has a creation date and number, just like a character registry number.

If you know the guild id number, you can hot link directly to it, from any guild just by typing 3 or four numbers. (or more rarely, two).

What does this mean for items?

Pedigree
Pedigree, as in artifact history. If you recall, popular girls (and some guys) can sell their underwear for ridiculous sums of money, even though the item itself is next to worthless and is a clone of every other item of its type.

What if you could prove that you had Alexi's underpants? There is a way. It is difficult, it has barely been done at all, but it can be done. A while ago I suggested that Items gain a sort of "karma" for the battle system based upon who owned them. I honestly did not realize until this moment that such information was already available to be coded in.

When you sell an item, imagine displaying its "previous owners" in a laundry list. Also realize that the smaller the item "number" the older it is. This is a kind of prestige more common to 2003 items, but it is no less signficant than having a high fishing score w/out a trophy.

Why casino Items?
Because no one else is doing them. Because they are smaller in number than other items. Because they are currently unpopular. Because their market value has to be calculated a completely different way. The most efficient way to calculate Casino item values is with a chart, following an index.

As the value of tickets rise, the value of all Casino items increases, as the tickets drop, all the Casino items drop. If we assign a flat rate value, we aren't doing it right. That's like saying "IBM stock is $7.50 a share in 1984 and will always be $7.50 a share." Stocks by their very nature fluctuate. A real priceguide has a duty to give accurate representations of value of anything that can be purchased, and investment advice on how to work your way to any financial investment (such as a crown, corsage, or halo)

How to standardize Ticket value?
Asside from the item id numbers, the most valuable formula of such a pricing system would be rapidly calculating the value of tickets. Unfortunately, the current programming of the Marketplace makes this very difficult, and the Admins might have no desire whatsoever to tamper with it.
When pricing tickets, you must avoid the standardized "go for broke" minimum price you can find, and recognize that as the number of tickets increases, the bell curve for the ability of the masses to purchase that many tickets is reduced. That is a simple fact that will always crush the market value of items, but it produces an interesting fact feature:

Poor people can only afford to get ITEMS for an amount of tickets they can AFFORD. Thus, the wealth categories for items also changes, based upon the "bulk" blocks you are buying in. Here is a market secret: It is often cheaper to go to a liquedation world or Walmart than to go to COSCO for your wholesale goods, ounce for ounce, kilo for kilo.

The second primary feature: Radicals. You have to throw out the radicals if you plan on grading on a curve. Just because Molly Sue is going to quit gaia and is dumping 10,000 tickets on the market for 1.2 gold/ticket, does not mean that's the new price of tickets. Meanwhile, as the above wholesale theory, just because 100,000 tickets are going for 8 gold a piece doesn't mean that's the new "high price". What it may imply, is "less time to acquire bulk".

so you are in a swing here. For once, you arent getting discount by buying in bulk, you are getting a price mark up, because the bulk saves you vending time that could be used elsewhere, (such as the exchange).

How many tickets are on the market? Ther are at any given time, 112 to 154 pages of tickets, with completely variable prices. So how do you get an active value?
First: go to "tickets" then "highest price".
You are normally used to going to "lowest price" or "lowest buy now price" right? Well that doesn't work with tickets because you miss the bulk variables (until DarkNrgy decides he wants a ticket/gold ratio sort feature, which would just kill the market in a heart beat). so "highest price:tickets" is the way to go. However, you then click through ther first 3 pages, and drop the highest and the lowest 10%.
That makes 60 ticket ratios, minus 6, for a total of 54 surveys. You will also want to "open link in new window" for pages 2 and 3 as quickly as possibly to avoid "copies".

now, comes the hard part. Assigning a team to update the this singular variable at relatively close time blocks. The very minimum is every 24 hours, the most accurate method would be every 6 hours, the most likely result would be every 12 hours, and have 3 or 4 people do it. You can create a "ticket reporting page" that focuses on group surveys like this, then plots the course of ticket values.

Why do all this work for 1 item?
Because that 1 item determines the price of dozens of other items, and if the price does infact change on a daily basis, it generates an active market that knows for itself, prices could go up or down, and will eventually do both.

You then take blocks of 0.5 gold/ticket (1.5, 2, 2.5, 3., 3.5, 4. 4.5, etc.) and write up a chart for each Casino item with a picture of the item itself.

And make the market
Create a section where every transaction MUST include either the purchase or sale of a Casino item. In creating a "hot zone" for items in the same guild that has good analysis of the market value, you have created your own Casino stock exchange, and thus, EVIL, if willing to do so, has once again become a Cornerstone of market Innovation.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 25, 2005 4:14 am


ish why we havent made a casino part right now.. prices everywhere xd but we are seriously thinking about it. When prices seem a bit better we will probably make that section. As for now I guess we can just plan things 3nodding .

Ransu


TheCarpetLady

Witty Genius

PostPosted: Sat Jun 25, 2005 11:27 am


I agree, I think we should wait a bit. Anyone who has enough gold to buy one of the game prizes is hesitant to do so because the item's prices are likely to drop after the initial, shall I call it, surprise of the new casino wears off. It's just too risky at the moment.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 25, 2005 12:00 pm


Yes, I want the fans, but I would not buy at the 67k~ mark that it is now. I think it would be easier to buy the tickets manually for some items and cash them in, instead of having peoples greed and shock move into the price.

Alex The Dragon Tamer


Letolas Reloaded
Vice Captain

PostPosted: Sat Jun 25, 2005 12:27 pm


About casino items.

We are considering the chance of having them in Teh guide. I already contacted some ppl that woule be interested in updating that section, but we want to let at least one more week so prices settle down.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 25, 2005 5:41 pm


Well yeah of course with this new thing coming out the prices are so random its funny. Its just the same with donation items. Donation items can easily cost 500 more on their first day than a week later. Currently theres a rush for these items thats why the prices are so weird. If we wait on the casino we can average some things in and get good estimates. But then we could also start on a fishing one because thats been there for a while

KuRaIIcHiNiChI


Alex The Dragon Tamer

PostPosted: Sat Jun 25, 2005 7:22 pm


The odd thing is, the start price of donation items on the vend were at about 5999 up to 7k, usually at 6k even. Right now they are still at 6k even. Most of the time it is inflated to a higher number by now. This time though, it might be that some friend and I were working on lowering the cost of letters this month, or it could be that people did not like the items as much.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:43 pm


whee ninja

Soiree


Twisted Aristocrat

PostPosted: Fri Jul 22, 2005 8:39 pm


I looked up ticket prices for amusement the other day, the first few pages were of vendors selling one ticket at a time for 5gp. sweatdrop

I've also looked up the prices for joker hats, they seem to be hovering around 125,000gp...as for the wands and other things, I haven't bothered to look.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 22, 2005 8:40 pm


ninja

Soiree


Gym Leader Allachka

Spiritual Seraph

22,050 Points
  • Elocutionist 200
  • Fusion Master 1000
PostPosted: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:10 pm


Wow, I loved that post on the Ticket items. That was really detailed. Wow, that makes me want to work on the Casino items update. xd
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