Welcome to Gaia! ::

Alchemy Lost Manuscripts

Back to Guilds

A unique collection of antique knowledge. 

Tags: Alchemy, Wings, Giveaways, Charity, Caches 

Reply R&D Department
What Cache comes next after opening this type of cache

Quick Reply

Enter both words below, separated by a space:

Can't read the text? Click here

Submit

Sphyxia

Aged Gaian

PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2014 11:10 am


This thread isn't complete. I'm waiting for the results of other who worked with me. Right now I can show you what an almost a thousand sample of caches looks like. Why almost? because I lost some caches along the line while keeping track of things. Will this affect the experiment? no, one or two caches won't change the overall.

What's this about exactly? Just a leisurely thought. What if you can predict what cache you're going to get next by your current color? I know it is random and have been told many times how random it is but I am that type that doesn't accept things as IT IS without something to back it up. How random is random? can random be really random as it was believed?

We know about the cache probabilities thread. That wasn't random, those numbers there were tried and tested so why not this? I know I'm not going to get much support from the community since research by itself isn't a very popular subject but am hoping that maybe someday I could get people to work with me that actually has enthusiasm on discovery.

Anyhow here's the list of sequences I have recorded on opening caches and shorted according to the following codes:

AQU - Aquamarine
EME - Emerald
SAP - Sapphire
AME - Amethyst
GAR - Garnet
RUB - Ruby
TOP - Topaz
DIA - Diamond
GOL - Gold
PLA - Platinum


EME > GOL> GAR > AQU> AME> GOL >DIA > AME> RUB> RUB> SAP> AQU> SAP> DIA> DIA> EME> EME> GAR> AQU> AQU> AME> SAP> AME> PLA> DIA> EME> TOP> SAP> AQU> AME> GOL>AQU> GOL> SAP> DIA> TOP> AQU> AQU> AQU> SAP> EME> EME>GAR> AME> EME> AME> DIA> SAP> GOL >TOP> GAR > SAP> EME> SAP> EME> AQU> TOP> TOP> AQU> EME> DIA> AQU> AQU> AME> AME> AME> RUB> RUB> AQU> EME>AME> AQU> AME> GAR> TOP> DIA> GOL> TOP> RUB> TOP> AQU> AME> AQU>RUB> AQU>SAP> SAP> SAP> RUB> AME> SAP> EME> SAP> SAP> AME> EME> EME> EME> AME> TOP> AME> AME> AQU> AQU> TOP> GAR> AQU>RUB> RUB> RUB> EME> AQU> EME> PLA> SAP> RUB> AME> GAR> PLA> AME> DIA> AME> GAR> EME> AQU> AME> GAR> AQU> EME> GAR> EME> GAR> DIA> GAR> AQU> AME> DIA> UNDER CONSTRUCTION


How to Interpret the Result:
Name of Current Cache
< Cache after = number of times it happened.

Result:

Aquamarine
< AQU = 23
< EME = 30
< SAP = 29
< AME = 25
< GAR = 17
< RUB = 14
< TOP = 16
< DIA = 3
< GOL = 6
< PLA = 4

Emerald
< AQU = 24
< EME = 26
< SAP = 23
< AME = 20
< GAR = 20
< RUB = 10
< TOP = 14
< DIA = 4
< GOL = 5
< PLA = 6

Sapphire
< AQU = 20
< EME = 18
< SAP = 21
< AME = 15
< GAR = 20
< RUB = 15
< TOP = 11
< DIA = 6
< GOL = 12
< PLA = 4

Amethyst
< AQU = 24
< EME = 19
< SAP = 18
< AME = 20
< GAR = 17
< RUB = 8
< TOP = 10
< DIA = 11
< GOL = 10
< PLA = 11

Garnet
< AQU = 26
< EME = 17
< SAP = 13
< AME = 12
< GAR = 12
< RUB = 6
< TOP = 8
< DIA = 8
< GOL = 6
< PLA = 2

Ruby
< AQU = 19
< EME = 9
< SAP = 6
< AME = 12
< GAR = 5
< RUB = 10
< TOP = 4
< DIA = 6
< GOL = 4
< PLA = 1

Topaz
< AQU = 17
< EME = 13
< SAP = 5
< AME = 17
< GAR = 10
< RUB = 7
< TOP = 9
< DIA = 5
< GOL = 0
< PLA = 2

Diamond
< AQU = 5
< EME = 10
< SAP = 13
< AME = 8
< GAR = 11
< RUB = 6
< TOP = 3
< DIA = 3
< GOL = 2
< PLA = 0

Gold
< AQU = 8
< EME = 9
< SAP = 5
< AME = 6
< GAR = 8
< RUB = 1
< TOP = 6
< DIA = 3
< GOL = 5
< PLA = 1

Platinum
< AQU = 2
< EME = 0
< SAP = 2
< AME = 5
< GAR = 1
< RUB = 4
< TOP = 5
< DIA = 2
< GOL = 1
< PLA = 1


Things to note:
1. It's incomplete since this is a 1000 cache close sample.
2. Sapphire precedes Gold a lot based on the numbe rof times it happened.
3. If you look at the numbers and transfer them on paper or make a pie chart it would look different. Unfortunately I sweatdrop lazy... enough for a pie chart but anyone is welcome to make one, the numbers are already there XD

As for the unfinished sequences, I have another hypothesis being tested. Will update once I get the spare time to go through recording again which I doubt would be anytime soon.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 07, 2014 6:51 pm


Sphyxia asked me to help out with this, so over the course of the past month (would normally have been faster but I was also on a cross-country road trip) I opened three thousand Caches and noted the order they came in.

Charts for Aquamarine through Garnet
Charts for Ruby through Platinum

Sapphire preceding Gold didn't happen too often in the last thousand, but it happened a bunch in the first two thousand.


Platonix


Eloquent Informer

37,875 Points
  • Winged 100
  • Balance Begets Creation 500
  • Waffles! 25

mist777

Hopeful Prophet

38,975 Points
  • Alchemy Level 10 100
  • Magical Gems 500
  • Budding Witch 250
PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2014 3:16 pm


Would the addition of the GoFusion Charms change the data at all?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2014 3:46 pm


mist777
Would the addition of the GoFusion Charms change the data at all?


Haven't been active to make this go far, and yes, charms affect everything. :<

Sphyxia

Aged Gaian

Reply
R&D Department

 
Manage Your Items
Other Stuff
Get GCash
Offers
Get Items
More Items
Where Everyone Hangs Out
Other Community Areas
Virtual Spaces
Fun Stuff
Gaia's Games
Mini-Games
Play with GCash
Play with Platinum