~ALCHEMY~
Once upon a time, in years long gone, I played a game that introduced an alchemy system that works in a very similar way to the one just introduced here on Gaia. Based on my experiences with that system, I can make a guess as to how Gaia alchemy will progress.
I will confess that I made myself a very impressive fortune with this system by partnering with a power player. We both made thousands of a GC equivalent.
I will confess that I made myself a very impressive fortune with this system by partnering with a power player. We both made thousands of a GC equivalent.
I can break it down into three stages...
The first stage is the "Mad Dash", where just about everyone wants to try the new feature. Expect the following:
- Prices on all ingredients will SKYROCKET to unbelievable prices. If you have this stuff now, SELL!
- The finished products that make it to the market will be super-expensive. Wait to buy.
- Items that can be 'found' or 'gathered' will soon be located and farmed, lowering their prices. This can be rather profitable depending on how Gaia decided to do it.
- Items that were originally granted items and are already in limited quantities will probably be reissued in some way after a while, lowering their prices. Probably through a NPC store or with their own recipe made of store ingredients.
- Existing items (Premium items) that can be made through alchemy will begin to drop, as both current owners try to sell before more are made and as more are made.
- This will continue for a few weeks of possible even months, particularly depending on items.
The next stage will be "Stabilization". With the nature of the items, and the sheer size of the market, it could take months until we see this happen. Expect the following:
- Prices of all finished products will slowly drop in price as more are made, until the cost of making it reaches the sell cost. (This will drop as the production costs drop).
- As the value of finished products lowers, demand for the raw materials will also drop. Because of this, prices will finally return to 'reasonable' levels on ingredients, recipes, and the finished products.
- More people will mess around with alchemy just to try it, keeping the prices stable.
- By this point, the system will have destroyed millions and millions of gold, helping to stabilize the overall economy.
- Depending on how Gaia handles the distribution of raw materials and new releases, this stage could also last for months.
After a great deal of time has passed, Alchemy will reach a "Elite Only" phase. Expect the following:
- Core players (and groups of players) will dominate the vast majority of all Alchemic creations. These are the players who have performed a great deal of Alchemy, and have a high level in it.
- Prices on finished products will reach new lows, and may continue to drop slowly over time.
- The raw ingredients that can be gathered easily will no longer be worth collecting by individuals, much like the current system for bugs, paper, and zOMG crafting.
- Expect the rise of Alchemy 'services', people who use their level to make a product for you in you give them the right ingredients, and a fee. Alchemy can fail; expect lots of broken hearts and complaints of scamming.
- Gaia Online will attempt to keep the system going with new recipes and updates, and may also add the old crafting system into it.
- Eventually, the system will no longer be worth the hassle and cost of creating things, and will become as defunct as the current crafting system. Still used, but the cost of creation far exceeds the benefits.
