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 Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2011 1:34 pm
Cabron LaSwan Oh, I agree with you, it's a good starting point. I just wanted to make sure we were covering our bases; we can't afford to be making assumptions with this player count.
I also wanna point out that there are 3 other potential outcomes besides inactivity and doctor protection. One, they hit the Lucky Duck. Two, they hit the SK. Three, they were stopped by the Jailkeeper (or even the Mad Scientist).
...That's really four possibilities, but I'm only really counting the Mad Scientist as .25 of a possibility, so...yeah. Food for thought.
I want to hear from Rhed, personally. Looking back over the thread, I noticed that Orphie did post about an hour before end of day, and therefore would have had time to send in a kill. Of course, it would be best to hear from them both, but if we're going to take the inactivity path, it makes more sense (to me) to want to question Rhed than it does Orph. Good point. I agree that Rhed's activity is everything I was worried about with the ton/orph situation but a little more suspicious. Why wasn't he replaced like Ton? @Rhed I just wanna ask you something. Did you receive your role on the first day? Is that why you weren't replaced? Not that your role was a mafia one by any means. I just want to know if you got it.
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Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2011 1:39 pm
Dulnair Hashire Kazemeijin ...With 10 players total, the logical spread after the last kill would be 5 - 3 - 1... So if there are three mafia, three mafia power roles, and there is fer sure at least one vanilla mafia... I'm going to assume worst-case scenario that there are two power roles playing. So, I think the one that got ditched was either Ty Lee (Role Blocker) or Mai (Bomb), because either of them could be taken out of play without disrupting the other power roles' abilities. Zuko (Godfather), on the other hand, definitely has Ty Lee depending on him, as well as Mai in a way. So I'm gonna say Zuko is definitely creepin' all up in here (which might mean that there is probably a cop, since his ability foils investigations). But this could all be moot if there are two vanilla mafia or four mafia members. (Mafia Gaemz, am I doing it rite?) Lupus Prognostication System!
Laundry Pineapple Scent!
YES. LPS IS LAUNDRY PINEAPPLE SCENT. no, I'm just not a sir.
Also, there can't logically be 4 mafia, or the spread would be 4-4-1 (assuming there is an SK and no jester) and the town would have already pretty much lost.
Personally, while I don't usually take this perspective, I am less interested in finding the mafia and more interested in finding the SK this game. It'll take several days of successful lynches to eliminate the Mafia faction's kill, which may turn out to be time we won't have with this small player base. I would be much more comfortable keeping our losses to a minimum.
Then again, every Mafia member brought down is room for one more mistake on the town side, since the Mafia have to reduce the town to their number to win, so maybe that's a moot point.
In any case, I found Rhed's reply satisfactory insomuch as he didn't feel the need to shift suspicions or go on the defensive, which, to me, implies that he has nothing to hide. What do you guys think?
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Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2011 1:42 pm
Owwin Cabron LaSwan Oh, I agree with you, it's a good starting point. I just wanted to make sure we were covering our bases; we can't afford to be making assumptions with this player count.
I also wanna point out that there are 3 other potential outcomes besides inactivity and doctor protection. One, they hit the Lucky Duck. Two, they hit the SK. Three, they were stopped by the Jailkeeper (or even the Mad Scientist).
...That's really four possibilities, but I'm only really counting the Mad Scientist as .25 of a possibility, so...yeah. Food for thought.
I want to hear from Rhed, personally. Looking back over the thread, I noticed that Orphie did post about an hour before end of day, and therefore would have had time to send in a kill. Of course, it would be best to hear from them both, but if we're going to take the inactivity path, it makes more sense (to me) to want to question Rhed than it does Orph. Good point. I agree that Rhed's activity is everything I was worried about with the ton/orph situation but a little more suspicious. Why wasn't he replaced like Ton? @Rhed I just wanna ask you something. Did you receive your role on the first day? Is that why you weren't replaced? Not that your role was a mafia one by any means. I just want to know if you got it. ...s**t, I hadn't even thought about what the replacement suggested. Aaaand we're back up in the air.
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Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2011 1:48 pm
Cabron LaSwan ...s**t, I hadn't even thought about what the replacement suggested. Aaaand we're back up in the air. It could mean that ton was replaced because he was totally inactive, but that Rhed wasn't replaced because he was active outside of the thread. Just a thought.
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Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2011 2:06 pm
Owwin Cabron LaSwan ...s**t, I hadn't even thought about what the replacement suggested. Aaaand we're back up in the air. It could mean that ton was replaced because he was totally inactive, but that Rhed wasn't replaced because he was active outside of the thread. Just a thought. Yeah, I know what it could imply, I just hadn't factored it into my thought process at all before you brought it up. Pretty big oversight. /facepalm@self
I just looked back over the thread, and yeah, not even a role-received post from Rhed. He went well over 24 hours without making a post and wasn't modkilled. This does raise a few warning flags, but at the same time it discounts the entire basis for going after inactives in the first place: the possibility that the Mafia did not send in their kill. If he were active outside the thread and responsible for the kill, it would have gone through unless it was blocked somehow, which would make his inactivity a non-issue.
My logic is going in circles, sorry. I just don't see how both of these points can be true at the same time.
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Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2011 2:41 pm
Cabron LaSwan Yeah, I know what it could imply, I just hadn't factored it into my thought process at all before you brought it up. Pretty big oversight. /facepalm@self
I just looked back over the thread, and yeah, not even a role-received post from Rhed. He went well over 24 hours without making a post and wasn't modkilled. This does raise a few warning flags, but at the same time it discounts the entire basis for going after inactives in the first place: the possibility that the Mafia did not send in their kill. If he were active outside the thread and responsible for the kill, it would have gone through unless it was blocked somehow, which would make his inactivity a non-issue.
My logic is going in circles, sorry. I just don't see how both of these points can be true at the same time. Yeah. I don't really know what to make of it. I am wary to vote because there are lots of ways to not be inactive. Hell he could have just PMed Allegro and said "Hey i'm active" Or something. I dunno. I would like to hear more from him about why he wasn't swapped at the very least. You are very right about all the ways the mafia could have been active but blocked. So this seems like the more important issue to explore.
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Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2011 2:51 pm
I tried to read through all of that and got lost in circular logic. @ .@
Is the tl;dr version FOS on Rhed?
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Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2011 3:04 pm
J of The Wind I tried to read through all of that and got lost in circular logic. @ .@ Is the tl;dr version FOS on Rhed? No, just that I would like to ask him if he got his role email on the first day.
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Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2011 3:19 pm
Owwin J of The Wind I tried to read through all of that and got lost in circular logic. @ .@ Is the tl;dr version FOS on Rhed? No, just that I would like to ask him if he got his role email on the first day. Ah.
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Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2011 3:42 pm
Wow i am very popular it seems!
Owwin: let's see, i got my role the 16th, 4:53 pm
generally speaking im glad i wasn't mod killed, and i'll try to keep that in mind in future games.
according to the rules you guys are explaining, I should have been killed off, i did not pm Allegro with any news, so i should probably have been replaced.
oh well, it works.
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Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2011 3:46 pm
Rhed King Wow i am very popular it seems! Owwin: let's see, i got my role the 16th, 4:53 pm generally speaking im glad i wasn't mod killed, and i'll try to keep that in mind in future games. according to the rules you guys are explaining, I should have been killed off, i did not pm Allegro with any news, so i should probably have been replaced. oh well, it works. No I don't mean when you received it. I mean when did you open it.
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Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2011 3:50 pm
Owwin Rhed King Wow i am very popular it seems! Owwin: let's see, i got my role the 16th, 4:53 pm generally speaking im glad i wasn't mod killed, and i'll try to keep that in mind in future games. according to the rules you guys are explaining, I should have been killed off, i did not pm Allegro with any news, so i should probably have been replaced. oh well, it works. No I don't mean when you received it. I mean when did you open it. hmm that is a good question, I dont honestly remember, but i think i opened it rather quickly
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Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2011 3:53 pm
Rhed King hmm that is a good question, I dont honestly remember, but i think i opened it rather quickly So you did have it opened a little while after you got it. That would explain why you weren't modkilled. Ton didn't even have his opened. On the other hand... You can undoubtedly understand how suspicious that looks to me? You can't blame me for being a little wary.
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Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2011 4:01 pm
Owwin . On the other hand... You can undoubtedly understand how suspicious that looks to me? You can't blame me for being a little wary. well of course, everyone is going to be a little suspicious of the guy who lived through the cut off and comes in late.
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Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2011 4:05 pm
Rhed King well of course, everyone is going to be a little suspicious of the guy who lived through the cut off and comes in late. Alright. I am just saying that right now you are the biggest lead. I am prolly gonna send my vote your way. Which I hate to do to a fellow hunter, but I am giving you a fair warning. I really don't like voting this early, but assuming we have as many killing roles as we do in such a small game it is really the only option. Unless somebody else can think of something? I am really open to suggestions here. I hate leading votes more than I hate voting for a lynch.
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