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Older Americans are facing tough choices amid market and economic uncertainty.
The stock market's decline and policy changes have heightened some fears of financial instability.
Some retirees remain optimistic, while others fear policy impacts on their retirement income.
Many older Americans are at a crossroads: Should they brave the market and hope it bounces back, or rethink their retirement plans?

Business Insider spoke this week to nearly a dozen older Americans about how they view their retirement amid a wave of market and economic uncertainty. While some said they're fearful inflation could tick up or their retirement funds may not recover, others are more optimistic and expect the market to rebound.

The S&P 500 fell over 10% from recent highs in mid-February and 6% year to date before ticking back up Friday, triggering recession anxiety on Wall Street and hitting many older Americans' retirement investments. President Donald Trump's shifting tariff policies and DOGE-led federal government cuts also mean some older Americans fear higher grocery or medical bills.

Many older adults BI spoke with said they feel financially comfortable and will not be significantly affected by federal policy changes. But others said they're scared they will have trouble paying their bills or accessing government aid.

We want to hear from you. Are you an older American comfortable sharing your retirement outlook with a reporter? Please fill out this quick form.
Some retirees aren't too worried about their finances
A few older Americans told BI they're cautiously optimistic about their financial futures despite this rough patch in the market.

Karen Keane, 64, said that while she's nervous about the long-term, she's in a better financial position than many of her peers.

Keane worked in finance for a Fortune 100 company in South Florida and took a voluntary buyout a few years ago that included medical insurance, though she's been unable to find another midlevel management job.


Karen Keane said she's staying calm amid the market downturn. Karen Keane
Karen Keane said she's staying calm amid the market downturn. Karen Keane
© Karen Keane
"My money is gone, and I have had to dip into my 401(k) to pay bills. I also lost my health insurance in 2023 and had to go on my husband's," Keane said, adding her retirement forecast from 2019 has come up short amid price increases.

Keane said she and her husband are preparing to sell their house and plan to move to West Virginia for lower living costs.

Keane advised taking a steady view of your retirement savings: "Don't panic and stay diversified. Look at your savings as a supplement to Social Security. Figure out where, why, and how you want to spend your retirement."

For some retirees with larger assets and higher income streams, the last few weeks haven't caused much concern.

William Kent, 73, worked until 72 as a vice president of corporate relations and runs a consulting business. Kent said he counterbalances the downward market trend by investing in energy stocks that are up this year. He expects Social Security won't change or be touched by Congress anytime soon.


William Kent said he has few concerns about the current economy. William Kent
William Kent said he has few concerns about the current economy. William Kent
© William Kent
"There will continue to be uncertainty as our country attempts to find ways out of our current economic mess, and if Americans don't have control over their own lives and depend too much on the government, they will continue to be faced with uncertainty," Kent said, citing federal deficit spending and long-term debts as a particular concern. "Each of us is responsible for our own actions."

Still, even Trump voters who trusted his vision for the economy said they doubt this level of volatility is sustainable.

Joseph Dennis, 73, voted for Trump but wishes the administration's decisions on tariffs and federal cuts were less extreme, adding he's concerned about the market's volatility.


Joseph Dennis said he's unsure how Trump's policies will pan out. Joseph Dennis
Joseph Dennis said he's unsure how Trump's policies will pan out. Joseph Dennis
© Joseph Dennis
Dennis started multiple businesses and retired at 51 after diversifying his portfolio and staying in conservative investments. He grew his wealth by buying rental properties after the 2007 real estate crash, and he keeps much of his money in cash CDs and money market funds.

"I hope he knows what he's doing, but I'm not so sure," Dennis said.

Many fear coming policy changes and an economic downturn
Meanwhile, the market downturn and policy uncertainty have heightened fears for older Americans in more vulnerable financial situations.

Peter Young, 69, worries his finances will become even tighter over the next few months.

Young retired at 62 with decent savings after years as a manufacturing manager and electronics technician. But after struggling to secure more work and with his health declining, he ate through his savings, had his car repossessed, and lost some medical coverage.


Peter Young is nervous about his financial future. Peter Young
Peter Young is nervous about his financial future. Peter Young
© Peter Young
Young, who has terminal cancer, was disenrolled from Medicaid in Nevada last year for making too much from Supplemental Security Income. He anticipates with government cuts and the market downturn, he'll face increasing financial hurdles as his health declines.

"This country is in for its roughest ride in 80 years, and that will impact us all no matter what," Young said. He added his retirement "sure won't be the Golden Years of Hollywood and AARP, but then again, as trite as it sounds, it could always be worse."

Some older Americans with more financial security still feel the immediate effects of Trump's economic policies.

Ed Harris, 69, said he lives comfortably in Arizona as a retired product engineer. Though satisfied with his economic condition, he said he's worried about middle- and lower-income Americans who may experience hardship in the next few months. "Gas prices, groceries, drugs, and even medical prices are up," Harris said, noting he's nervous that many older Americans may be left without Medicaid benefits if the program faces deep cuts from Congress later this year.

Gloria Rodriguez, 69, fears the economy may not improve enough for her to get back on her feet. Rodriguez said her Social Security is not enough for her to live, and she became homeless after her husband died a few years ago. Rodriguez now stays with with a friend but fears she may not find a place to live on her own given rising costs and little income.

"I am very afraid of the way the world is today, with so much uncertainty and people losing their money and jobs," Rodriguez said.

Market volatility worries people still approaching retirement, too
Margarita Sdoukos, 49, and her husband are worried they may have to delay their retirement. They planned to stop working in six years, but Sdoukos doubts they can afford it.

Sdoukos said they have lost "tens of thousands" of dollars in the stock market since January and are shifting to safer investments for their 401(k), even if they are less lucrative. She's also cashing out her teacher's pension due to "uncertainty in the government" and is concerned about potential changes to Social Security.

Eight financial advisors and wealth managers told BI this week that older Americans shouldn't panic. Now is a good time for those with fewer savings or without a retirement plan to consider crafting one and cutting back on unnecessary spending, they agreed.

"We don't even think about retirement right now," Sdoukos said. "We're just trying to get through these next four years."

the consensus was cautious on growth, with
firms primed for a recession. Even through June 2023
the BlueChip Consensus of Economists saw a two-quarter
decline in real GDP growth. At any rate, one of the ways
a recession works is through an element of surprise.
For example, firms expect the economy to keep rolling
and it does not, prompting a clearing out of inventories,
employment, and investment. If, by contrast, firms see
a recession that does not materialize, they’ll need to
play catch-up, boosting inventories, employment, and
investment

Today's warning signs mirror yesterday's strengths
Fast forward to late-2024 / early-2025.
As the labor market cools, real incomes are slowing with
much of the growth in consumption last year stemming
from a decline in the personal saving rate. That cannot
continue indefinitely. Next, the housing market is getting
worse not better. Inventories are rising in the meat
of the market – the South and West. This will put
pressure on residential construction. Third, state and
local governments are pulling back on spending. State
and local government construction spending rose 4.4%
in 2024, down from 19.7% in 2023. Hiring by state and
local governments is coming down as well. Finally, the
consensus sees no slowdown in sight with a median
forecast of roughly 2.5 percent. If 2023 was about being
surprised to the upside, there is more risk in 2025 of being
surprised to the downside. Much of what we see in the
financial press – tariffs, uncertainty – is a red herring,
February 24, 2025 2
Economics
an ex-post rationalization for an economic slowdown that
was already in motion.
The bigger story is that despite strong growth in both 2023
and 2024, the unemployment rate still rose 0.3ppt in each
of those years. Growth is likely to slow in 2025, and I think
it is a tough leap to assume that unemployment will not
keep rising.
We remain of the view that a passive tightening of
monetary policy is the dominant risk and that has
important implications for financial market investors. I
would anticipate a decline in longer term interest rates
and a sell off in equity prices as risk appetite wanes. For
the economy, expect conditions to deteriorate in the jobs
market.
The Fed will eventually come around, cutting rates to
support growth, but if you are waiting for the bad news to
be obvious before doing something it usually has a way of
showing up.

Today's warning signs mirror yesterday's strengths
Fast forward to late-2024 / early-2025.
As the labor market cools, real incomes are slowing with
much of the growth in consumption last year stemming
from a decline in the personal saving rate. That cannot
continue indefinitely. Next, the housing market is getting
worse not better. Inventories are rising in the meat
of the market – the South and West. This will put
pressure on residential construction. Third, state and
local governments are pulling back on spending. State
and local government construction spending rose 4.4%
in 2024, down from 19.7% in 2023. Hiring by state and
local governments is coming down as well. Finally, the
consensus sees no slowdown in sight with a median
forecast of roughly 2.5 percent. If 2023 was about being
surprised to the upside, there is more risk in 2025 of being
surprised to the downside. Much of what we see in the
financial press – tariffs, uncertainty – is a red herring,
February 24, 2025 2
Economics
an ex-post rationalization for an economic slowdown that
was already in motion.
The bigger story is that despite strong growth in both 2023
and 2024, the unemployment rate still rose 0.3ppt in each
of those years. Growth is likely to slow in 2025, and I think
it is a tough leap to assume that unemployment will not
keep rising.
We remain of the view that a passive tightening of
monetary policy is the dominant risk and that has
important implications for financial market investors. I
would anticipate a decline in longer term interest rates
and a sell off in equity prices as risk appetite wanes. For
the economy, expect conditions to deteriorate in the jobs
market.
The Fed will eventually come around, cutting rates to
support growth, but if you are waiting for the bad news to
be obvious before doing something it usually has a way of
showing up.

Today's warning signs mirror yesterday's strengths
Fast forward to late-2024 / early-2025.
As the labor market cools, real incomes are slowing with
much of the growth in consumption last year stemming
from a decline in the personal saving rate. That cannot
continue indefinitely. Next, the housing market is getting
worse not better. Inventories are rising in the meat
of the market – the South and West. This will put
pressure on residential construction. Third, state and
local governments are pulling back on spending. State
and local government construction spending rose 4.4%
in 2024, down from 19.7% in 2023. Hiring by state and
local governments is coming down as well. Finally, the
consensus sees no slowdown in sight with a median
forecast of roughly 2.5 percent. If 2023 was about being
surprised to the upside, there is more risk in 2025 of being
surprised to the downside. Much of what we see in the
financial press – tariffs, uncertainty – is a red herring,
February 24, 2025 2
Economics
an ex-post rationalization for an economic slowdown that
was already in motion.
The bigger story is that despite strong growth in both 2023
and 2024, the unemployment rate still rose 0.3ppt in each
of those years. Growth is likely to slow in 2025, and I think
it is a tough leap to assume that unemployment will not
keep rising.
We remain of the view that a passive tightening of
monetary policy is the dominant risk and that has
important implications for financial market investors. I
would anticipate a decline in longer term interest rates
and a sell off in equity prices as risk appetite wanes. For
the economy, expect conditions to deteriorate in the jobs
market.
The Fed will eventually come around, cutting rates to
support growth, but if you are waiting for the bad news to
be obvious before doing something it usually has a way of
showing up.

Today's warning signs mirror yesterday's strengths
Fast forward to late-2024 / early-2025.
As the labor market cools, real incomes are slowing with
much of the growth in consumption last year stemming
from a decline in the personal saving rate. That cannot
continue indefinitely. Next, the housing market is getting
worse not better. Inventories are rising in the meat
of the market – the South and West. This will put
pressure on residential construction. Third, state and
local governments are pulling back on spending. State
and local government construction spending rose 4.4%
in 2024, down from 19.7% in 2023. Hiring by state and
local governments is coming down as well. Finally, the
consensus sees no slowdown in sight with a median
forecast of roughly 2.5 percent. If 2023 was about being
surprised to the upside, there is more risk in 2025 of being
surprised to the downside. Much of what we see in the
financial press – tariffs, uncertainty – is a red herring,
February 24, 2025 2
Economics
an ex-post rationalization for an economic slowdown that
was already in motion.
The bigger story is that despite strong growth in both 2023
and 2024, the unemployment rate still rose 0.3ppt in each
of those years. Growth is likely to slow in 2025, and I think
it is a tough leap to assume that unemployment will not
keep rising.
We remain of the view that a passive tightening of
monetary policy is the dominant risk and that has
important implications for financial market investors. I
would anticipate a decline in longer term interest rates
and a sell off in equity prices as risk appetite wanes. For
the economy, expect conditions to deteriorate in the jobs
market.
The Fed will eventually come around, cutting rates to
support growth, but if you are waiting for the bad news to
be obvious before doing something it usually has a way of
showing up.

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*3/2* Base case: Looks like correction thesis playing out. The earliest bottom is march 7 with AVGO and NFP, BUT more likely march 18 for leaders, and march 24 for broader market. I favor entering short Monday near close. AVGO should guide well for networking, but losing Bytedance will hurt previous rosy 2027 guidance. AKA, being short is favorable until march 18.

^3/9 update. This week will likely see a relief rally from CPI, with an initial chop from TSM sales up and hot inflation exp conflicting. NFLX, COST, and AXON should bottom before the broader market does. Good action in AXON so far, with long bottom tails on both NFLX and COST. Be wary of mar 6 gap on AXON. COST and NFLX sitting on key MAs. Take profits quickly until CPI. The key thing we need to look for to determine a market bottom is a CLEARING EVENT (bad news being bought up). That clearing event can come as early as CPI this wednesday. A likely cool CPI may be sold due to growth worries, and be bought in afternoon trade. A hot CPI would be the better catalyst for the clearing event though.

Macro events: cpi, inflation exp, PPI, jolts

Mar 10 TSM Sales, 12CPI, 17 GTC begins, 18 keynote

Earnings: ORCL

Bull:
Googl- a likely leader in the next uptrend. Need to wait for a close above 200ma to make a move.
NFLX- enter on CPI. Likely selloff in either outcome should create a buying opportunity

AXON - relief bounce. Profit take fast

Neutral:
AMZN -205 flip
QQQ- 480 downside wick target. Favor longs from there.

Bear:
MSTR- 250 target

——————————
Positions– :

3/14


3/21
TQqq <63 .4, >61 .61


3/28


4/17

<75 tqqq

4/25
<4 MSTU -1.15
<7 TSLL 1.51, <5 .66


5/16


>195 TSM 3.16, <195 1.39



6/20
COST >1000 5.9,
^<985 5.13 (1x), <1140 1.32, <1200 1.85
>235 AMZN 7.03+.46, <235 3.18 1x

<6.7 TSLL -1.76


>1030 NFLX 5.85, >1010 4.16

7/18

>1060 <1200 COST 13.17

8/15
>1060 COST 10.14, <1300 1.29

9/19


12/19


1/16/26

>500 APP 44.29+4.07, <510 6.16
>1060 COST 8.84 (also Asia’s acc), <1480 COST 1.1
^>985 COST 9.71
>1060 NFLX 10.02

3/20/26
>250 AMZN 6.34+.52
>1050 NFLX 12.28, <1500 1.36
>1100 <1360 COST 13.86, >1040 <1260 14.57


6/18/26
>1000 COST .92

12/18/26

1/15/27
>35 tqqq -33.12, >60, >70

———————————

-AAII Asset allocation- 75% stocks, 15% cash marks a top
-Double is a bubble over a 3 year rolling return for indexes. >35 VIX - historically 100% 1 month positive, >27 almost perfect in similar timeframe.
—--------------------------------------
OPEX
-Jan, Feb, and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive
-Seasonality: Feb- AXON, JUL- XLK, NOV- COST






PostPosted by: Perma Bear Sun Mar 16, 2025 @ 12:27am 0 comments [add]



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2 New Deals

Hi, AxonResearch!
Dive Now2,099,447 1,052 70%

Platinum coinsPost, Vote, or Explore to earn Platinum!
Hey, I've got...
5 Announcements

My Gaia
GCash
Shops !
Forums
World
Games
Catch

Search

Overview
Avatar
Housemore
Car
Aquarium
Inventory
Mailmore
Friendsmore
Journalmore
Questsmore
Achievements
Marriage
Settingsmore

Profile

View User's Journal
Investing notes and trade log
Report This Entry

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hide spoiler


*3/2* Base case: Looks like correction thesis playing out. The earliest bottom is march 7 with AVGO and NFP, BUT more likely march 18 for leaders, and march 24 for broader market. I favor entering short Monday near close. AVGO should guide well for networking, but losing Bytedance will hurt previous rosy 2027 guidance. AKA, being short is favorable until march 18.

^3/9 update. This week will likely see a relief rally from CPI, with an initial chop from TSM sales up and hot inflation exp conflicting. NFLX, COST, and AXON should bottom before the broader market does. Good action in AXON so far, with long bottom tails on both NFLX and COST. Be wary of mar 6 gap on AXON. COST and NFLX sitting on key MAs. Take profits quickly until CPI. The key thing we need to look for to determine a market bottom is a CLEARING EVENT (bad news being bought up). That clearing event can come as early as CPI this wednesday. A likely cool CPI may be sold due to growth worries, and be bought in afternoon trade. A hot CPI would be the better catalyst for the clearing event though.

Macro events: cpi, inflation exp, PPI, jolts

Mar 10 TSM Sales, 12CPI, 17 GTC begins, 18 keynote

Earnings: ORCL

Bull:
Googl- a likely leader in the next uptrend. Need to wait for a close above 200ma to make a move.
NFLX- enter on CPI. Likely selloff in either outcome should create a buying opportunity

AXON - relief bounce. Profit take fast

Neutral:
AMZN -205 flip
QQQ- 480 downside wick target. Favor longs from there.

Bear:
MSTR- 250 target

——————————
Positions– :

3/14


3/21
TQqq <63 .4, >61 .61


3/28


4/17

<75 tqqq

4/25
<4 MSTU -1.15
<7 TSLL 1.51, <5 .66


5/16


>195 TSM 3.16, <195 1.39



6/20
COST >1000 5.9,
^<985 5.13 (1x), <1140 1.32, <1200 1.85
>235 AMZN 7.03+.46, <235 3.18 1x

<6.7 TSLL -1.76


>1030 NFLX 5.85, >1010 4.16

7/18

>1060 <1200 COST 13.17

8/15
>1060 COST 10.14, <1300 1.29

9/19


12/19


1/16/26

>500 APP 44.29+4.07, <510 6.16
>1060 COST 8.84 (also Asia’s acc), <1480 COST 1.1
^>985 COST 9.71
>1060 NFLX 10.02

3/20/26
>250 AMZN 6.34+.52
>1050 NFLX 12.28, <1500 1.36
>1100 <1360 COST 13.86, >1040 <1260 14.57


6/18/26
>1000 COST .92

12/18/26

1/15/27
>35 tqqq -33.12, >60, >70

———————————

-AAII Asset allocation- 75% stocks, 15% cash marks a top
-Double is a bubble over a 3 year rolling return for indexes. >35 VIX - historically 100% 1 month positive, >27 almost perfect in similar timeframe.
—--------------------------------------
OPEX
-Jan, Feb, and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive
-Seasonality: Feb- AXON, JUL- XLK, NOV- COST






PostPosted by: Perma Bear Sun Mar 16, 2025 @ 12:27am 0 comments [add]



Perma Bear
Your Friend
Perma Bear
Prev | Next»
Archive | Home

03/16/25 to 03/09/25 (47)
03/09/25 to 03/02/25 (57)
03/02/25 to 02/23/25 (6 cool
02/23/25 to 02/16/25 (56)
02/16/25 to 02/09/25 (52)
02/09/25 to 02/02/25 (57)
02/02/25 to 01/26/25 (55)
01/26/25 to 01/19/25 (5 cool
01/19/25 to 01/12/25 (53)
01/12/25 to 01/05/25 (45)
Online

You look fantastic!



About UsTerms of ServicePRIVACY POLICYRules & GuidelinesSafety TipsInformation for ParentsFAQ / HELPContact UsChange Ad ConsentArenasContributeDress UpFind FriendsForumsFriendsGamesGuildsJournalsMailMarketplaceMy StuffProfileShopsTownsTradeWorld Map
© Copyright 2003 - 2025 Gaia Interactive, Inc. All Rights Reserved.