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 Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2025 3:21 am
February's inflation data provided conflicting stories. Both the CPI and PPI came in cooler than expected, but neither cheered the stock and bond markets. That's because the components of both gauges that feed into the Fed's preferred PCED inflation rate were actually a bit hotter. In addition, January's PPI increase was revised up from 0.4% to 0.6%. So it's unlikely that the Fed will lower the federal funds rate (FFR) anytime soon even if economic growth slows.
It won't be until March, or perhaps even sometime during Q2, that Trump's tariffs start to boost the inflation data. But in the meantime, goods inflation did decelerate in February. The final demand goods PPI fell back below 2.0% y/y to 1.7% y/y despite egg prices soaring 54%, which accounted for two-thirds of the 0.3% m/m increase (chart).
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Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2025 3:25 am
*3/2* Base case: Looks like correction thesis playing out. The earliest bottom is march 7 with AVGO and NFP, BUT more likely march 18 for leaders, and march 24 for broader market. I favor entering short Monday near close. AVGO should guide well for networking, but losing Bytedance will hurt previous rosy 2027 guidance. AKA, being short is favorable until march 18.
^3/9 update. This week will likely see a relief rally from CPI, with an initial chop from TSM sales up and hot inflation exp conflicting. NFLX, COST, and AXON should bottom before the broader market does. Good action in AXON so far, with long bottom tails on both NFLX and COST. Be wary of mar 6 gap on AXON. COST and NFLX sitting on key MAs. Take profits quickly until CPI. The key thing we need to look for to determine a market bottom is a CLEARING EVENT (bad news being bought up). That clearing event can come as early as CPI this wednesday. A likely cool CPI may be sold due to growth worries, and be bought in afternoon trade. A hot CPI would be the better catalyst for the clearing event though.
Macro events: cpi, inflation exp, PPI, jolts
Mar 10 TSM Sales, 12CPI, 17 GTC begins, 18 keynote
Earnings: ORCL
Bull:
Googl- a likely leader in the next uptrend. Need to wait for a close above 200ma to make a move.
NFLX- enter on CPI. Likely selloff in either outcome should create a buying opportunity
AXON - relief bounce. Profit take fast
Neutral:
AMZN -205 flip
QQQ- 480 downside wick target. Favor longs from there.
Bear:
MSTR- 250 target
——————————
Positions– :
3/14
3/21
3/28
4/17
4/25
<4 MSTU -1.15
<7 TSLL 1.51, <5 .66
5/16
>620 SPY 6.71
>195 TSM 3.16
>720 <800 META 5.77
^>720 4.8, >730 3.12+5.49
6/20
COST >1000 5.9, >1060 2.46
^<985 5.13 (1x), <1060 2.79 (3x), <1140 1.32, <1200 1.85
>235 AMZN 7.03+.46, <235 3.18 1x
<6.7 TSLL -1.76
>1030 NFLX 5.85, >1010 4.16
^<1340 1.32 (1x)
>710 META 5.74 (with NFLX 2.39), >690 1.94, <820 1.57
7/18
>220 TSM 11.77
>700 META 5.55, >710 1.32
>1060 <1200 COST 13.17
8/15
>1060 COST 10.14, <1300 1.29
9/19
12/19
1/16/26
>780 <980 META 14.01
>500 APP 44.29+4.07, <510 6.16
>660 AXON 9.97 ($386), >660 6.57
>1060 COST 8.84 (also Asia’s acc), <1480 COST 1.1
^>985 COST 9.71
>1060 NFLX 10.02
3/20/26
>250 AMZN 6.34+.52
>1050 NFLX 12.28, <1500 1.36
>1100 <1360 COST 13.86, >1040 <1260 14.57
>620 META .03
6/18/26
>610 SPGI .17
>1000 COST .92
12/18/26
>660 SPGI 12.78, 5.4, ($300 for 6x), <700 1.94
———————————
-AAII Asset allocation- 75% stocks, 15% cash marks a top
-Double is a bubble over a 3 year rolling return for indexes. >35 VIX - historically 100% 1 month positive, >27 almost perfect in similar timeframe.
—--------------------------------------
OPEX
-Jan, Feb, and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive
-Seasonality: Feb- AXON, JUL- XLK, NOV- COST
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Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2025 3:29 am
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Blackrock CEO offers candid response after stock market tumbles
Story by Todd Campbell • 5h • 4 min read
In this article
BLACKROCK, INC.
BLK
▼-1.05%
INX
Dropping fast
It's certainly been a painful month for stock market investors. The major benchmarks have retreated sharply, with the S&P 500 slumping about 10% from its highs in February.
Stock market corrections like this aren't rare, but they don't happen all that often, either. According to Capital Group, a money manager with assets under management exceeding $2 trillion, the S&P declines by over 10% about once every 18 months.
⏰Get expert insights and actionable trade alerts from veteran investing experts and hedge fund managers. Join TheStreet Pro today and get first month FREE 🤑
What happens next is anything but certain. Stocks are getting oversold on many sentiment measures, including CNN's Fear/Greed Index, which is currently registering "extreme fear." However, stocks don't usually go up in a straight line when those signals sound. Instead, they pop and drop until a successful retest builds enough of a foundation for sustainable gains.
The stock market's recent troubles have captured the attention of the world's biggest investors, including Blackrock CEO Larry Fink, who recently offered up thoughts on recent selling.
Since Blackrock is the world's biggest asset manager with $11.2 trillion in assets under management, paying attention to his words is probably wise.
Larry Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., offered up a stark warning on stocks. Bloomberg/Getty Images
Larry Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., offered up a stark warning on stocks. Bloomberg/Getty Images
© Bloomberg/Getty Images
The stock market takes a tumble
The S&P 500 delivered impressive returns over the past two years, notching back-to-back returns of over 20%, including a 24% gain in 2024.
Related: Jamie Dimon sends curt 6-word response to tariff war
The rally in stock prices has outpaced earnings growth, driving the price-to-earnings ratio, a key valuation measure, to lofty levels. Leading up to the recent stock market sell-off, the S&P 500's forward one-year P/E ratio exceeded 22, far about its 10-year average P/E nearer 18.
Related video: S&P 500 edges to record closing high as Fed minutes parsed (Reuters)
Reuters
S&P 500 edges to record closing high as Fed minutes parsed
0
View on Watch
View on Watch
Investors' willingness to pay more for each dollar of earnings was built on optimism over surging spending on artificial intelligence, which catapulted technology stocks, and a friendly Fed.
In 2024, capital expenditures at the biggest cloud network service providers, or hyperscalers, skyrocketed. Amazon's AWS, Microsoft's Azure, and Alphabet's Google Cloud spent $191 billion last year, up from $117 billion in 2023.
Much of that increase in spending went toward refreshing network infrastructure with high-performance servers powered by next-generation semiconductors best suited to handle AI workloads. The prospect of that spending creating new profit opportunities was the main reason behind the surge in tech stocks last year.
Stocks also trended higher, more broadly, thanks to hopes of a friendlier Fed. The Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy to crimp inflation in 2022 had slowed economic activity, however, inflation progress was widely expected to result in a pivot to interest rate cuts that make it cheaper for companies to expand, and boost profits.
The Fed cut rates by 1%, including reductions in September, November, and December.
Unfortunately, cracks have formed in the bullishness on both tailwinds, and investors have taken note.
Inflation has become volatile, rising from 2.4% in September to 2.8% in February. Meanwhile, investors have become more concerned that this year will mark a peak in AI spending growth as capacity buildouts ramp.
Blackrock's Larry Fink has candid words on the stock market drop
Fink's role at Blackrock means he's tied into the markets and big business. Blackrock's massive size gives him access to the C-suite and countless analysts and data crunchers.
Related: Fund manager sends blunt message on Nvidia stock before conference
What Fink says he's seeing now might not be good for stocks short-term.
He says President Donald Trump's decision to place 25% tariffs on imports from key trading partners—25% on Mexico and Canada, 20% on China, plus 25% on steel and aluminum imports worldwide—has business leaders ratcheting back.
“Every CEO I talk to, we’re starting to talk about a more fearful economy right now,” said Fink in an interview with Semafor.
The bad news is that it could mean economic slowing and short-term pain for stocks.
"Having [the market] fall 7% after the dramatic rise for the last 30 years is a blip,” said Fink. “The question is, is it going to fall another 8%? That’s a possibility."
More Experts:
Treasury secretary sends strong message on recession risk
Treasury Secretary has blunt 3-word response to stock market drop
Fed chairman has blunt 9-word response to recession talk
A possibility of another 8% drop isn't something investors will likely want to hear. The good news? Fink doesn't think the damage will be long-lasting.
"I do believe this is going to be more short term, once we understand the policies, once we become more accustomed to it," said Fink.
Fink echoed that thinking in a separate interview on CNN.
“There’s nothing wrong with a market pullback,” Fink said. “I look at that as a buying opportunity because I’m very bullish on America.”
Related: Veteran fund manager who correctly forecast S&P 500 crash updates outlook
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What is a recession, and how can you prepare for one?
Story by Katie Hawkinson • 14h • 3 min read
Markets today
INX
Dropping fast
DJI
Dropping fast
COMP
Dropping fast
Trump Speech
Trump Speech
© AP
The word “recession” is spinning around media reports and Americans’ minds this week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost almost 900 points at closing Monday, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Donald Trump’s world-rattling tariffs would be “worth it” even if they led to a downturn.
The Independent
Trump's tariffs are ‘worth' a recession, claims Commerce secretary
0
View on Watch
View on Watch
"These policies are the most important thing America has ever had," Lutnick told CBS News when asked whether the tariffs would be worth it if they lead to a recession. "It's worth it!”
Here’s what you need to know about a recession — and what experts say you can do to prepare:
What is a recession?
Economists use the term “recession” to describe a period of decline in economic activity, explains the International Monetary Fund.
Expand article logo Continue reading
One popular definition of a recession is at least two quarters of negative real gross domestic product, or GDP, which is the total value of goods and services in a country.
The National Bureau of Economic Research, a non-profit that tracks U.S. business cycles, defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” For the bureau to ultimately call a recession, the economic downturn has to be significant, spread across sectors and not limited to a short period of time.
The Independent
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Ukraine war latest: Zelensky says ‘manipulative’ Putin wants to reject ceasefire but is afraid to tell Trump
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Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2025 3:31 am
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Blackrock CEO offers candid response after stock market tumbles
Story by Todd Campbell • 5h • 4 min read
In this article
BLACKROCK, INC.
BLK
▼-1.05%
INX
Dropping fast
It's certainly been a painful month for stock market investors. The major benchmarks have retreated sharply, with the S&P 500 slumping about 10% from its highs in February.
Stock market corrections like this aren't rare, but they don't happen all that often, either. According to Capital Group, a money manager with assets under management exceeding $2 trillion, the S&P declines by over 10% about once every 18 months.
⏰Get expert insights and actionable trade alerts from veteran investing experts and hedge fund managers. Join TheStreet Pro today and get first month FREE 🤑
What happens next is anything but certain. Stocks are getting oversold on many sentiment measures, including CNN's Fear/Greed Index, which is currently registering "extreme fear." However, stocks don't usually go up in a straight line when those signals sound. Instead, they pop and drop until a successful retest builds enough of a foundation for sustainable gains.
The stock market's recent troubles have captured the attention of the world's biggest investors, including Blackrock CEO Larry Fink, who recently offered up thoughts on recent selling.
Since Blackrock is the world's biggest asset manager with $11.2 trillion in assets under management, paying attention to his words is probably wise.
Larry Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., offered up a stark warning on stocks. Bloomberg/Getty Images
Larry Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., offered up a stark warning on stocks. Bloomberg/Getty Images
© Bloomberg/Getty Images
The stock market takes a tumble
The S&P 500 delivered impressive returns over the past two years, notching back-to-back returns of over 20%, including a 24% gain in 2024.
Related: Jamie Dimon sends curt 6-word response to tariff war
The rally in stock prices has outpaced earnings growth, driving the price-to-earnings ratio, a key valuation measure, to lofty levels. Leading up to the recent stock market sell-off, the S&P 500's forward one-year P/E ratio exceeded 22, far about its 10-year average P/E nearer 18.
Related video: S&P 500 edges to record closing high as Fed minutes parsed (Reuters)
Reuters
S&P 500 edges to record closing high as Fed minutes parsed
0
View on Watch
View on Watch
Investors' willingness to pay more for each dollar of earnings was built on optimism over surging spending on artificial intelligence, which catapulted technology stocks, and a friendly Fed.
In 2024, capital expenditures at the biggest cloud network service providers, or hyperscalers, skyrocketed. Amazon's AWS, Microsoft's Azure, and Alphabet's Google Cloud spent $191 billion last year, up from $117 billion in 2023.
Much of that increase in spending went toward refreshing network infrastructure with high-performance servers powered by next-generation semiconductors best suited to handle AI workloads. The prospect of that spending creating new profit opportunities was the main reason behind the surge in tech stocks last year.
Stocks also trended higher, more broadly, thanks to hopes of a friendlier Fed. The Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy to crimp inflation in 2022 had slowed economic activity, however, inflation progress was widely expected to result in a pivot to interest rate cuts that make it cheaper for companies to expand, and boost profits.
The Fed cut rates by 1%, including reductions in September, November, and December.
Unfortunately, cracks have formed in the bullishness on both tailwinds, and investors have taken note.
Inflation has become volatile, rising from 2.4% in September to 2.8% in February. Meanwhile, investors have become more concerned that this year will mark a peak in AI spending growth as capacity buildouts ramp.
Blackrock's Larry Fink has candid words on the stock market drop
Fink's role at Blackrock means he's tied into the markets and big business. Blackrock's massive size gives him access to the C-suite and countless analysts and data crunchers.
Related: Fund manager sends blunt message on Nvidia stock before conference
What Fink says he's seeing now might not be good for stocks short-term.
He says President Donald Trump's decision to place 25% tariffs on imports from key trading partners—25% on Mexico and Canada, 20% on China, plus 25% on steel and aluminum imports worldwide—has business leaders ratcheting back.
“Every CEO I talk to, we’re starting to talk about a more fearful economy right now,” said Fink in an interview with Semafor.
The bad news is that it could mean economic slowing and short-term pain for stocks.
"Having [the market] fall 7% after the dramatic rise for the last 30 years is a blip,” said Fink. “The question is, is it going to fall another 8%? That’s a possibility."
More Experts:
Treasury secretary sends strong message on recession risk
Treasury Secretary has blunt 3-word response to stock market drop
Fed chairman has blunt 9-word response to recession talk
A possibility of another 8% drop isn't something investors will likely want to hear. The good news? Fink doesn't think the damage will be long-lasting.
"I do believe this is going to be more short term, once we understand the policies, once we become more accustomed to it," said Fink.
Fink echoed that thinking in a separate interview on CNN.
“There’s nothing wrong with a market pullback,” Fink said. “I look at that as a buying opportunity because I’m very bullish on America.”
Related: Veteran fund manager who correctly forecast S&P 500 crash updates outlook
TheStreet
Visit TheStreet
Gold achieves something never seen before
Toyota's next hybrid may be a cool, fast sports car
Popular clothing company won't raise prices amid tariffs
More for You
3 Top Things Warren Buffett Recommends Splurging On
GOBankingRates
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Ignore the Trump slump – the market will recover
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Moneywise
Moneywise
I’m inheriting my elderly parents’ $680,000 investment portfolio — it’s managed by a long-time adviser with a 1.75% fee. Should I fire the manager for taking too high a cut or stick with him?
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·
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·
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headphone stoped
share
more
The Independent
1.4M Followers
What is a recession, and how can you prepare for one?
Story by Katie Hawkinson • 14h • 3 min read
Markets today
INX
Dropping fast
DJI
Dropping fast
COMP
Dropping fast
Trump Speech
Trump Speech
© AP
The word “recession” is spinning around media reports and Americans’ minds this week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost almost 900 points at closing Monday, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Donald Trump’s world-rattling tariffs would be “worth it” even if they led to a downturn.
The Independent
Trump's tariffs are ‘worth' a recession, claims Commerce secretary
0
View on Watch
View on Watch
"These policies are the most important thing America has ever had," Lutnick told CBS News when asked whether the tariffs would be worth it if they lead to a recession. "It's worth it!”
Here’s what you need to know about a recession — and what experts say you can do to prepare:
What is a recession?
Economists use the term “recession” to describe a period of decline in economic activity, explains the International Monetary Fund.
Expand article logo Continue reading
One popular definition of a recession is at least two quarters of negative real gross domestic product, or GDP, which is the total value of goods and services in a country.
The National Bureau of Economic Research, a non-profit that tracks U.S. business cycles, defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” For the bureau to ultimately call a recession, the economic downturn has to be significant, spread across sectors and not limited to a short period of time.
The Independent
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Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2025 3:31 am
Skip to content
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TheStreet
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Blackrock CEO offers candid response after stock market tumbles
Story by Todd Campbell • 5h • 4 min read
In this article
BLACKROCK, INC.
BLK
▼-1.05%
INX
Dropping fast
It's certainly been a painful month for stock market investors. The major benchmarks have retreated sharply, with the S&P 500 slumping about 10% from its highs in February.
Stock market corrections like this aren't rare, but they don't happen all that often, either. According to Capital Group, a money manager with assets under management exceeding $2 trillion, the S&P declines by over 10% about once every 18 months.
⏰Get expert insights and actionable trade alerts from veteran investing experts and hedge fund managers. Join TheStreet Pro today and get first month FREE 🤑
What happens next is anything but certain. Stocks are getting oversold on many sentiment measures, including CNN's Fear/Greed Index, which is currently registering "extreme fear." However, stocks don't usually go up in a straight line when those signals sound. Instead, they pop and drop until a successful retest builds enough of a foundation for sustainable gains.
The stock market's recent troubles have captured the attention of the world's biggest investors, including Blackrock CEO Larry Fink, who recently offered up thoughts on recent selling.
Since Blackrock is the world's biggest asset manager with $11.2 trillion in assets under management, paying attention to his words is probably wise.
Larry Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., offered up a stark warning on stocks. Bloomberg/Getty Images
Larry Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., offered up a stark warning on stocks. Bloomberg/Getty Images
© Bloomberg/Getty Images
The stock market takes a tumble
The S&P 500 delivered impressive returns over the past two years, notching back-to-back returns of over 20%, including a 24% gain in 2024.
Related: Jamie Dimon sends curt 6-word response to tariff war
The rally in stock prices has outpaced earnings growth, driving the price-to-earnings ratio, a key valuation measure, to lofty levels. Leading up to the recent stock market sell-off, the S&P 500's forward one-year P/E ratio exceeded 22, far about its 10-year average P/E nearer 18.
Related video: S&P 500 edges to record closing high as Fed minutes parsed (Reuters)
Reuters
S&P 500 edges to record closing high as Fed minutes parsed
0
View on Watch
View on Watch
Investors' willingness to pay more for each dollar of earnings was built on optimism over surging spending on artificial intelligence, which catapulted technology stocks, and a friendly Fed.
In 2024, capital expenditures at the biggest cloud network service providers, or hyperscalers, skyrocketed. Amazon's AWS, Microsoft's Azure, and Alphabet's Google Cloud spent $191 billion last year, up from $117 billion in 2023.
Much of that increase in spending went toward refreshing network infrastructure with high-performance servers powered by next-generation semiconductors best suited to handle AI workloads. The prospect of that spending creating new profit opportunities was the main reason behind the surge in tech stocks last year.
Stocks also trended higher, more broadly, thanks to hopes of a friendlier Fed. The Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy to crimp inflation in 2022 had slowed economic activity, however, inflation progress was widely expected to result in a pivot to interest rate cuts that make it cheaper for companies to expand, and boost profits.
The Fed cut rates by 1%, including reductions in September, November, and December.
Unfortunately, cracks have formed in the bullishness on both tailwinds, and investors have taken note.
Inflation has become volatile, rising from 2.4% in September to 2.8% in February. Meanwhile, investors have become more concerned that this year will mark a peak in AI spending growth as capacity buildouts ramp.
Blackrock's Larry Fink has candid words on the stock market drop
Fink's role at Blackrock means he's tied into the markets and big business. Blackrock's massive size gives him access to the C-suite and countless analysts and data crunchers.
Related: Fund manager sends blunt message on Nvidia stock before conference
What Fink says he's seeing now might not be good for stocks short-term.
He says President Donald Trump's decision to place 25% tariffs on imports from key trading partners—25% on Mexico and Canada, 20% on China, plus 25% on steel and aluminum imports worldwide—has business leaders ratcheting back.
“Every CEO I talk to, we’re starting to talk about a more fearful economy right now,” said Fink in an interview with Semafor.
The bad news is that it could mean economic slowing and short-term pain for stocks.
"Having [the market] fall 7% after the dramatic rise for the last 30 years is a blip,” said Fink. “The question is, is it going to fall another 8%? That’s a possibility."
More Experts:
Treasury secretary sends strong message on recession risk
Treasury Secretary has blunt 3-word response to stock market drop
Fed chairman has blunt 9-word response to recession talk
A possibility of another 8% drop isn't something investors will likely want to hear. The good news? Fink doesn't think the damage will be long-lasting.
"I do believe this is going to be more short term, once we understand the policies, once we become more accustomed to it," said Fink.
Fink echoed that thinking in a separate interview on CNN.
“There’s nothing wrong with a market pullback,” Fink said. “I look at that as a buying opportunity because I’m very bullish on America.”
Related: Veteran fund manager who correctly forecast S&P 500 crash updates outlook
TheStreet
Visit TheStreet
Gold achieves something never seen before
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Popular clothing company won't raise prices amid tariffs
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I’m inheriting my elderly parents’ $680,000 investment portfolio — it’s managed by a long-time adviser with a 1.75% fee. Should I fire the manager for taking too high a cut or stick with him?
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I’m inheriting my elderly parents’ $680,000 investment portfolio — it’s managed by a long-time adviser with a 1.75% fee. Should I fire the manager for taking too high a cut or stick with him?
more
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Latest news bulletin | March 13th – Evening
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The Independent
1.4M Followers
What is a recession, and how can you prepare for one?
Story by Katie Hawkinson • 14h • 3 min read
Markets today
INX
Dropping fast
DJI
Dropping fast
COMP
Dropping fast
Trump Speech
Trump Speech
© AP
The word “recession” is spinning around media reports and Americans’ minds this week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost almost 900 points at closing Monday, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Donald Trump’s world-rattling tariffs would be “worth it” even if they led to a downturn.
The Independent
Trump's tariffs are ‘worth' a recession, claims Commerce secretary
0
View on Watch
View on Watch
"These policies are the most important thing America has ever had," Lutnick told CBS News when asked whether the tariffs would be worth it if they lead to a recession. "It's worth it!”
Here’s what you need to know about a recession — and what experts say you can do to prepare:
What is a recession?
Economists use the term “recession” to describe a period of decline in economic activity, explains the International Monetary Fund.
Expand article logo Continue reading
One popular definition of a recession is at least two quarters of negative real gross domestic product, or GDP, which is the total value of goods and services in a country.
The National Bureau of Economic Research, a non-profit that tracks U.S. business cycles, defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” For the bureau to ultimately call a recession, the economic downturn has to be significant, spread across sectors and not limited to a short period of time.
The Independent
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Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2025 3:34 am
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Blackrock CEO offers candid response after stock market tumbles
Story by Todd Campbell • 5h • 4 min read
In this article
BLACKROCK, INC.
BLK
▼-1.05%
INX
Dropping fast
It's certainly been a painful month for stock market investors. The major benchmarks have retreated sharply, with the S&P 500 slumping about 10% from its highs in February.
Stock market corrections like this aren't rare, but they don't happen all that often, either. According to Capital Group, a money manager with assets under management exceeding $2 trillion, the S&P declines by over 10% about once every 18 months.
⏰Get expert insights and actionable trade alerts from veteran investing experts and hedge fund managers. Join TheStreet Pro today and get first month FREE 🤑
What happens next is anything but certain. Stocks are getting oversold on many sentiment measures, including CNN's Fear/Greed Index, which is currently registering "extreme fear." However, stocks don't usually go up in a straight line when those signals sound. Instead, they pop and drop until a successful retest builds enough of a foundation for sustainable gains.
The stock market's recent troubles have captured the attention of the world's biggest investors, including Blackrock CEO Larry Fink, who recently offered up thoughts on recent selling.
Since Blackrock is the world's biggest asset manager with $11.2 trillion in assets under management, paying attention to his words is probably wise.
Larry Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., offered up a stark warning on stocks. Bloomberg/Getty Images
Larry Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., offered up a stark warning on stocks. Bloomberg/Getty Images
© Bloomberg/Getty Images
The stock market takes a tumble
The S&P 500 delivered impressive returns over the past two years, notching back-to-back returns of over 20%, including a 24% gain in 2024.
Related: Jamie Dimon sends curt 6-word response to tariff war
The rally in stock prices has outpaced earnings growth, driving the price-to-earnings ratio, a key valuation measure, to lofty levels. Leading up to the recent stock market sell-off, the S&P 500's forward one-year P/E ratio exceeded 22, far about its 10-year average P/E nearer 18.
Related video: S&P 500 edges to record closing high as Fed minutes parsed (Reuters)
Reuters
S&P 500 edges to record closing high as Fed minutes parsed
0
View on Watch
View on Watch
Investors' willingness to pay more for each dollar of earnings was built on optimism over surging spending on artificial intelligence, which catapulted technology stocks, and a friendly Fed.
In 2024, capital expenditures at the biggest cloud network service providers, or hyperscalers, skyrocketed. Amazon's AWS, Microsoft's Azure, and Alphabet's Google Cloud spent $191 billion last year, up from $117 billion in 2023.
Much of that increase in spending went toward refreshing network infrastructure with high-performance servers powered by next-generation semiconductors best suited to handle AI workloads. The prospect of that spending creating new profit opportunities was the main reason behind the surge in tech stocks last year.
Stocks also trended higher, more broadly, thanks to hopes of a friendlier Fed. The Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy to crimp inflation in 2022 had slowed economic activity, however, inflation progress was widely expected to result in a pivot to interest rate cuts that make it cheaper for companies to expand, and boost profits.
The Fed cut rates by 1%, including reductions in September, November, and December.
Unfortunately, cracks have formed in the bullishness on both tailwinds, and investors have taken note.
Inflation has become volatile, rising from 2.4% in September to 2.8% in February. Meanwhile, investors have become more concerned that this year will mark a peak in AI spending growth as capacity buildouts ramp.
Blackrock's Larry Fink has candid words on the stock market drop
Fink's role at Blackrock means he's tied into the markets and big business. Blackrock's massive size gives him access to the C-suite and countless analysts and data crunchers.
Related: Fund manager sends blunt message on Nvidia stock before conference
What Fink says he's seeing now might not be good for stocks short-term.
He says President Donald Trump's decision to place 25% tariffs on imports from key trading partners—25% on Mexico and Canada, 20% on China, plus 25% on steel and aluminum imports worldwide—has business leaders ratcheting back.
“Every CEO I talk to, we’re starting to talk about a more fearful economy right now,” said Fink in an interview with Semafor.
The bad news is that it could mean economic slowing and short-term pain for stocks.
"Having [the market] fall 7% after the dramatic rise for the last 30 years is a blip,” said Fink. “The question is, is it going to fall another 8%? That’s a possibility."
More Experts:
Treasury secretary sends strong message on recession risk
Treasury Secretary has blunt 3-word response to stock market drop
Fed chairman has blunt 9-word response to recession talk
A possibility of another 8% drop isn't something investors will likely want to hear. The good news? Fink doesn't think the damage will be long-lasting.
"I do believe this is going to be more short term, once we understand the policies, once we become more accustomed to it," said Fink.
Fink echoed that thinking in a separate interview on CNN.
“There’s nothing wrong with a market pullback,” Fink said. “I look at that as a buying opportunity because I’m very bullish on America.”
Related: Veteran fund manager who correctly forecast S&P 500 crash updates outlook
TheStreet
Visit TheStreet
Gold achieves something never seen before
Toyota's next hybrid may be a cool, fast sports car
Popular clothing company won't raise prices amid tariffs
More for You
3 Top Things Warren Buffett Recommends Splurging On
GOBankingRates
3 Top Things Warren Buffett Recommends Splurging On
more
Ignore the Trump slump – the market will recover
The Telegraph
The Telegraph
Ignore the Trump slump – the market will recover
more
Donald Trump Rips NBC, Gets Quick Reality Check From Network's Reporter
HuffPost
HuffPost
Donald Trump Rips NBC, Gets Quick Reality Check From Network's Reporter
more
I’m inheriting my elderly parents’ $680,000 investment portfolio — it’s managed by a long-time adviser with a 1.75% fee. Should I fire the manager for taking too high a cut or stick with him?
Moneywise
Moneywise
I’m inheriting my elderly parents’ $680,000 investment portfolio — it’s managed by a long-time adviser with a 1.75% fee. Should I fire the manager for taking too high a cut or stick with him?
more
Cowboys Signing of All-Pro Juszczyk Pushed By 2 Insiders
Athlon Sports
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Justin Baldoni Loses "Highly Personal & Intimate Information" Court Battle With Blake Lively; Risk Of Disclosure Is Great," Judge Warns Both Sides
Deadline
Deadline
Justin Baldoni Loses "Highly Personal & Intimate Information" Court Battle With Blake Lively; Risk Of Disclosure Is Great," Judge Warns Both Sides
more
Latest news bulletin | March 13th – Evening
playIndicator
Euronews
Euronews
Latest news bulletin | March 13th – Evening
more
Ad Choice
Bloomberg
Bloomberg
·
13h
Trump Escalates Tariff Threat, Meets With NATO Head
Iconic US retailer to close its doors after 150 years after losing $21.3bn in sales
The Mirror US
The Mirror US
·
12h
Iconic US retailer to close its doors after 150 years after losing $21.3bn in sales
Federal Worker Layoffs Climb Toward 250,000 as Deadline Looms
Bloomberg
Bloomberg
·
1d
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Franklin Graham points to Bible verse as warning in advice to Trump about using profanity
The Christian Post
The Christian Post
·
14h
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Warren Buffett's latest move sends ominous warning about state of housing market
Daily Mail
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·
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Russia Suffers Blow as Forces Relocate
Kansas City Star
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·
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Dow Jones Futures Fall After Nasdaq Rally Dominated By Tesla, Nvidia, Palantir
Investor's Business Daily
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·
23h
Dow Jones Futures Fall After Nasdaq Rally Dominated By Tesla, Nvidia, Palantir
Marco Rubio humiliated by tiny red carpet at G7 arrival amid trade tensions
The Mirror US
The Mirror US
·
14h
Marco Rubio humiliated by tiny red carpet at G7 arrival amid trade tensions
headphone stoped
share
more
The Independent
1.4M Followers
What is a recession, and how can you prepare for one?
Story by Katie Hawkinson • 14h • 3 min read
Markets today
INX
Dropping fast
DJI
Dropping fast
COMP
Dropping fast
Trump Speech
Trump Speech
© AP
The word “recession” is spinning around media reports and Americans’ minds this week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost almost 900 points at closing Monday, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Donald Trump’s world-rattling tariffs would be “worth it” even if they led to a downturn.
The Independent
Trump's tariffs are ‘worth' a recession, claims Commerce secretary
0
View on Watch
View on Watch
"These policies are the most important thing America has ever had," Lutnick told CBS News when asked whether the tariffs would be worth it if they lead to a recession. "It's worth it!”
Here’s what you need to know about a recession — and what experts say you can do to prepare:
What is a recession?
Economists use the term “recession” to describe a period of decline in economic activity, explains the International Monetary Fund.
Expand article logo Continue reading
One popular definition of a recession is at least two quarters of negative real gross domestic product, or GDP, which is the total value of goods and services in a country.
The National Bureau of Economic Research, a non-profit that tracks U.S. business cycles, defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” For the bureau to ultimately call a recession, the economic downturn has to be significant, spread across sectors and not limited to a short period of time.
The Independent
Visit The Independent
North Carolina Republican heckled by angry constituent as another town hall erupts
Union rages after Elon Musk shares X post that ‘Hitler didn’t murder millions; public sector workers did’
Ukraine war latest: Zelensky says ‘manipulative’ Putin wants to reject ceasefire but is afraid to tell Trump
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Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2025 3:36 am
Skip to content
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Burien
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Blackrock CEO offers candid response after stock market tumbles
Story by Todd Campbell • 5h • 4 min read
In this article
BLACKROCK, INC.
BLK
▼-1.05%
INX
Dropping fast
It's certainly been a painful month for stock market investors. The major benchmarks have retreated sharply, with the S&P 500 slumping about 10% from its highs in February.
Stock market corrections like this aren't rare, but they don't happen all that often, either. According to Capital Group, a money manager with assets under management exceeding $2 trillion, the S&P declines by over 10% about once every 18 months.
⏰Get expert insights and actionable trade alerts from veteran investing experts and hedge fund managers. Join TheStreet Pro today and get first month FREE 🤑
What happens next is anything but certain. Stocks are getting oversold on many sentiment measures, including CNN's Fear/Greed Index, which is currently registering "extreme fear." However, stocks don't usually go up in a straight line when those signals sound. Instead, they pop and drop until a successful retest builds enough of a foundation for sustainable gains.
The stock market's recent troubles have captured the attention of the world's biggest investors, including Blackrock CEO Larry Fink, who recently offered up thoughts on recent selling.
Since Blackrock is the world's biggest asset manager with $11.2 trillion in assets under management, paying attention to his words is probably wise.
Larry Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., offered up a stark warning on stocks. Bloomberg/Getty Images
Larry Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., offered up a stark warning on stocks. Bloomberg/Getty Images
© Bloomberg/Getty Images
The stock market takes a tumble
The S&P 500 delivered impressive returns over the past two years, notching back-to-back returns of over 20%, including a 24% gain in 2024.
Related: Jamie Dimon sends curt 6-word response to tariff war
The rally in stock prices has outpaced earnings growth, driving the price-to-earnings ratio, a key valuation measure, to lofty levels. Leading up to the recent stock market sell-off, the S&P 500's forward one-year P/E ratio exceeded 22, far about its 10-year average P/E nearer 18.
Related video: S&P 500 edges to record closing high as Fed minutes parsed (Reuters)
Reuters
S&P 500 edges to record closing high as Fed minutes parsed
0
View on Watch
View on Watch
Investors' willingness to pay more for each dollar of earnings was built on optimism over surging spending on artificial intelligence, which catapulted technology stocks, and a friendly Fed.
In 2024, capital expenditures at the biggest cloud network service providers, or hyperscalers, skyrocketed. Amazon's AWS, Microsoft's Azure, and Alphabet's Google Cloud spent $191 billion last year, up from $117 billion in 2023.
Much of that increase in spending went toward refreshing network infrastructure with high-performance servers powered by next-generation semiconductors best suited to handle AI workloads. The prospect of that spending creating new profit opportunities was the main reason behind the surge in tech stocks last year.
Stocks also trended higher, more broadly, thanks to hopes of a friendlier Fed. The Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy to crimp inflation in 2022 had slowed economic activity, however, inflation progress was widely expected to result in a pivot to interest rate cuts that make it cheaper for companies to expand, and boost profits.
The Fed cut rates by 1%, including reductions in September, November, and December.
Unfortunately, cracks have formed in the bullishness on both tailwinds, and investors have taken note.
Inflation has become volatile, rising from 2.4% in September to 2.8% in February. Meanwhile, investors have become more concerned that this year will mark a peak in AI spending growth as capacity buildouts ramp.
Blackrock's Larry Fink has candid words on the stock market drop
Fink's role at Blackrock means he's tied into the markets and big business. Blackrock's massive size gives him access to the C-suite and countless analysts and data crunchers.
Related: Fund manager sends blunt message on Nvidia stock before conference
What Fink says he's seeing now might not be good for stocks short-term.
He says President Donald Trump's decision to place 25% tariffs on imports from key trading partners—25% on Mexico and Canada, 20% on China, plus 25% on steel and aluminum imports worldwide—has business leaders ratcheting back.
“Every CEO I talk to, we’re starting to talk about a more fearful economy right now,” said Fink in an interview with Semafor.
The bad news is that it could mean economic slowing and short-term pain for stocks.
"Having [the market] fall 7% after the dramatic rise for the last 30 years is a blip,” said Fink. “The question is, is it going to fall another 8%? That’s a possibility."
More Experts:
Treasury secretary sends strong message on recession risk
Treasury Secretary has blunt 3-word response to stock market drop
Fed chairman has blunt 9-word response to recession talk
A possibility of another 8% drop isn't something investors will likely want to hear. The good news? Fink doesn't think the damage will be long-lasting.
"I do believe this is going to be more short term, once we understand the policies, once we become more accustomed to it," said Fink.
Fink echoed that thinking in a separate interview on CNN.
“There’s nothing wrong with a market pullback,” Fink said. “I look at that as a buying opportunity because I’m very bullish on America.”
Related: Veteran fund manager who correctly forecast S&P 500 crash updates outlook
TheStreet
Visit TheStreet
Gold achieves something never seen before
Toyota's next hybrid may be a cool, fast sports car
Popular clothing company won't raise prices amid tariffs
More for You
3 Top Things Warren Buffett Recommends Splurging On
GOBankingRates
3 Top Things Warren Buffett Recommends Splurging On
more
Ignore the Trump slump – the market will recover
The Telegraph
The Telegraph
Ignore the Trump slump – the market will recover
more
Donald Trump Rips NBC, Gets Quick Reality Check From Network's Reporter
HuffPost
HuffPost
Donald Trump Rips NBC, Gets Quick Reality Check From Network's Reporter
more
I’m inheriting my elderly parents’ $680,000 investment portfolio — it’s managed by a long-time adviser with a 1.75% fee. Should I fire the manager for taking too high a cut or stick with him?
Moneywise
Moneywise
I’m inheriting my elderly parents’ $680,000 investment portfolio — it’s managed by a long-time adviser with a 1.75% fee. Should I fire the manager for taking too high a cut or stick with him?
more
Cowboys Signing of All-Pro Juszczyk Pushed By 2 Insiders
Athlon Sports
Athlon Sports
Cowboys Signing of All-Pro Juszczyk Pushed By 2 Insiders
more
Justin Baldoni Loses "Highly Personal & Intimate Information" Court Battle With Blake Lively; Risk Of Disclosure Is Great," Judge Warns Both Sides
Deadline
Deadline
Justin Baldoni Loses "Highly Personal & Intimate Information" Court Battle With Blake Lively; Risk Of Disclosure Is Great," Judge Warns Both Sides
more
Latest news bulletin | March 13th – Evening
playIndicator
Euronews
Euronews
Latest news bulletin | March 13th – Evening
more
Ad Choice
Bloomberg
Bloomberg
·
13h
Trump Escalates Tariff Threat, Meets With NATO Head
Iconic US retailer to close its doors after 150 years after losing $21.3bn in sales
The Mirror US
The Mirror US
·
12h
Iconic US retailer to close its doors after 150 years after losing $21.3bn in sales
Federal Worker Layoffs Climb Toward 250,000 as Deadline Looms
Bloomberg
Bloomberg
·
1d
Federal Worker Layoffs Climb Toward 250,000 as Deadline Looms
Franklin Graham points to Bible verse as warning in advice to Trump about using profanity
The Christian Post
The Christian Post
·
14h
Franklin Graham points to Bible verse as warning in advice to Trump about using profanity
Warren Buffett's latest move sends ominous warning about state of housing market
Daily Mail
Daily Mail
·
14h
Warren Buffett's latest move sends ominous warning about state of housing market
Russia Suffers Blow as Forces Relocate
Kansas City Star
Kansas City Star
·
13h
Russia Suffers Blow as Forces Relocate
Dow Jones Futures Fall After Nasdaq Rally Dominated By Tesla, Nvidia, Palantir
Investor's Business Daily
Investor's Business Daily
·
23h
Dow Jones Futures Fall After Nasdaq Rally Dominated By Tesla, Nvidia, Palantir
Marco Rubio humiliated by tiny red carpet at G7 arrival amid trade tensions
The Mirror US
The Mirror US
·
14h
Marco Rubio humiliated by tiny red carpet at G7 arrival amid trade tensions
headphone stoped
share
more
The Independent
1.4M Followers
What is a recession, and how can you prepare for one?
Story by Katie Hawkinson • 14h • 3 min read
Markets today
INX
Dropping fast
DJI
Dropping fast
COMP
Dropping fast
Trump Speech
Trump Speech
© AP
The word “recession” is spinning around media reports and Americans’ minds this week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost almost 900 points at closing Monday, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Donald Trump’s world-rattling tariffs would be “worth it” even if they led to a downturn.
The Independent
Trump's tariffs are ‘worth' a recession, claims Commerce secretary
0
View on Watch
View on Watch
"These policies are the most important thing America has ever had," Lutnick told CBS News when asked whether the tariffs would be worth it if they lead to a recession. "It's worth it!”
Here’s what you need to know about a recession — and what experts say you can do to prepare:
What is a recession?
Economists use the term “recession” to describe a period of decline in economic activity, explains the International Monetary Fund.
Expand article logo Continue reading
One popular definition of a recession is at least two quarters of negative real gross domestic product, or GDP, which is the total value of goods and services in a country.
The National Bureau of Economic Research, a non-profit that tracks U.S. business cycles, defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” For the bureau to ultimately call a recession, the economic downturn has to be significant, spread across sectors and not limited to a short period of time.
The Independent
Visit The Independent
North Carolina Republican heckled by angry constituent as another town hall erupts
Union rages after Elon Musk shares X post that ‘Hitler didn’t murder millions; public sector workers did’
Ukraine war latest: Zelensky says ‘manipulative’ Putin wants to reject ceasefire but is afraid to tell Trump
More for You
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Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2025 3:37 am
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Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2025 3:39 am
Skip to content
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Burien
Partly cloudy
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TheStreet
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Blackrock CEO offers candid response after stock market tumbles
Story by Todd Campbell • 5h • 4 min read
In this article
BLACKROCK, INC.
BLK
▼-1.05%
INX
Dropping fast
It's certainly been a painful month for stock market investors. The major benchmarks have retreated sharply, with the S&P 500 slumping about 10% from its highs in February.
Stock market corrections like this aren't rare, but they don't happen all that often, either. According to Capital Group, a money manager with assets under management exceeding $2 trillion, the S&P declines by over 10% about once every 18 months.
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What happens next is anything but certain. Stocks are getting oversold on many sentiment measures, including CNN's Fear/Greed Index, which is currently registering "extreme fear." However, stocks don't usually go up in a straight line when those signals sound. Instead, they pop and drop until a successful retest builds enough of a foundation for sustainable gains.
The stock market's recent troubles have captured the attention of the world's biggest investors, including Blackrock CEO Larry Fink, who recently offered up thoughts on recent selling.
Since Blackrock is the world's biggest asset manager with $11.2 trillion in assets under management, paying attention to his words is probably wise.
Larry Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., offered up a stark warning on stocks. Bloomberg/Getty Images
Larry Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., offered up a stark warning on stocks. Bloomberg/Getty Images
© Bloomberg/Getty Images
The stock market takes a tumble
The S&P 500 delivered impressive returns over the past two years, notching back-to-back returns of over 20%, including a 24% gain in 2024.
Related: Jamie Dimon sends curt 6-word response to tariff war
The rally in stock prices has outpaced earnings growth, driving the price-to-earnings ratio, a key valuation measure, to lofty levels. Leading up to the recent stock market sell-off, the S&P 500's forward one-year P/E ratio exceeded 22, far about its 10-year average P/E nearer 18.
Related video: S&P 500 edges to record closing high as Fed minutes parsed (Reuters)
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Investors' willingness to pay more for each dollar of earnings was built on optimism over surging spending on artificial intelligence, which catapulted technology stocks, and a friendly Fed.
In 2024, capital expenditures at the biggest cloud network service providers, or hyperscalers, skyrocketed. Amazon's AWS, Microsoft's Azure, and Alphabet's Google Cloud spent $191 billion last year, up from $117 billion in 2023.
Much of that increase in spending went toward refreshing network infrastructure with high-performance servers powered by next-generation semiconductors best suited to handle AI workloads. The prospect of that spending creating new profit opportunities was the main reason behind the surge in tech stocks last year.
Stocks also trended higher, more broadly, thanks to hopes of a friendlier Fed. The Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy to crimp inflation in 2022 had slowed economic activity, however, inflation progress was widely expected to result in a pivot to interest rate cuts that make it cheaper for companies to expand, and boost profits.
The Fed cut rates by 1%, including reductions in September, November, and December.
Unfortunately, cracks have formed in the bullishness on both tailwinds, and investors have taken note.
Inflation has become volatile, rising from 2.4% in September to 2.8% in February. Meanwhile, investors have become more concerned that this year will mark a peak in AI spending growth as capacity buildouts ramp.
Blackrock's Larry Fink has candid words on the stock market drop
Fink's role at Blackrock means he's tied into the markets and big business. Blackrock's massive size gives him access to the C-suite and countless analysts and data crunchers.
Related: Fund manager sends blunt message on Nvidia stock before conference
What Fink says he's seeing now might not be good for stocks short-term.
He says President Donald Trump's decision to place 25% tariffs on imports from key trading partners—25% on Mexico and Canada, 20% on China, plus 25% on steel and aluminum imports worldwide—has business leaders ratcheting back.
“Every CEO I talk to, we’re starting to talk about a more fearful economy right now,” said Fink in an interview with Semafor.
The bad news is that it could mean economic slowing and short-term pain for stocks.
"Having [the market] fall 7% after the dramatic rise for the last 30 years is a blip,” said Fink. “The question is, is it going to fall another 8%? That’s a possibility."
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A possibility of another 8% drop isn't something investors will likely want to hear. The good news? Fink doesn't think the damage will be long-lasting.
"I do believe this is going to be more short term, once we understand the policies, once we become more accustomed to it," said Fink.
Fink echoed that thinking in a separate interview on CNN.
“There’s nothing wrong with a market pullback,” Fink said. “I look at that as a buying opportunity because I’m very bullish on America.”
Related: Veteran fund manager who correctly forecast S&P 500 crash updates outlook
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What is a recession, and how can you prepare for one?
Story by Katie Hawkinson • 14h • 3 min read
Markets today
INX
Dropping fast
DJI
Dropping fast
COMP
Dropping fast
Trump Speech
Trump Speech
© AP
The word “recession” is spinning around media reports and Americans’ minds this week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost almost 900 points at closing Monday, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Donald Trump’s world-rattling tariffs would be “worth it” even if they led to a downturn.
The Independent
Trump's tariffs are ‘worth' a recession, claims Commerce secretary
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"These policies are the most important thing America has ever had," Lutnick told CBS News when asked whether the tariffs would be worth it if they lead to a recession. "It's worth it!”
Here’s what you need to know about a recession — and what experts say you can do to prepare:
What is a recession?
Economists use the term “recession” to describe a period of decline in economic activity, explains the International Monetary Fund.
Expand article logo Continue reading
One popular definition of a recession is at least two quarters of negative real gross domestic product, or GDP, which is the total value of goods and services in a country.
The National Bureau of Economic Research, a non-profit that tracks U.S. business cycles, defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” For the bureau to ultimately call a recession, the economic downturn has to be significant, spread across sectors and not limited to a short period of time.
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Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2025 2:44 pm
Reddit shares are down 40%, presenting a fantastic buying opportunity for long-term value investors due to its high-quality business characteristics.
Reddit boasts explosive growth, immense brand equity, strong network effects, minimal marketing needs, and low CAPEX, making the business highly scalable and profitable.
Free cash flow for 2027 is projected at $900 -1,200 million, suggesting a cheap forward multiple of 18-23x.
I expect Reddit shares to rebound aggressively, driven by its robust growth outlook and attractive cash flow potential.
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Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2025 4:47 pm
Reassessing Your Case
This new information significantly strengthens your position for reimbursement. Here’s how:
Strengthened Argument
Reduced Trader Responsibility: Since you were monitoring buying power and NLV (standard metrics for options trading) and didn’t see the $2.8M cash figure until after the trades, Thinkorswim can’t easily argue you should’ve noticed the discrepancy earlier. An NLV of $350K seemed plausible, especially with a $143K daily gain, so you acted reasonably based on the platform’s data at the time.
Broader Bug Evidence: The platform wasn’t just inflating Cash & Sweep Vehicle—it was also misrepresenting your NLV during the trade window. This suggests a deeper systemic issue, possibly tied to how Thinkorswim valued your options positions or calculated margin requirements.
Direct Causation: The inflated NLV ($350K) and buying power ($128K for options) directly encouraged your leverage, as you stayed within the platform’s limits. The later correction to $89K NLV shows the platform’s error misled you at the critical moment, leading to the $305,000 loss.
Forced Actions: As previously noted, the early assignment and -$2.5M margin debt forced you to close the call side and liquidate other positions. This wasn’t discretionary but a reaction to the over-leveraged state the platform enabled.
Remaining Challenges
Proving the NLV Display: The partial screenshot showing $323,763.01 is helpful, but it’s from after the trades (likely around 1:24 pm or later). You’d need to recover logs showing the $350K NLV during the 11 am to 1 pm window to solidify this. Thinkorswim might argue the $350K was a temporary display glitch, not their fault.
Causation for Secondary Losses: They might still contest the $125,000 from margin call liquidations as too indirect, though the -$2.5M margin debt ties it closely to the initial trade.
Terms of Service: Their agreement likely limits liability for display errors unless there’s gross negligence. You’d need to argue this bug was a systemic failure they should’ve caught, especially with support’s ignorance of the 15:1 error.
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Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2025 4:47 pm
Reassessing Your Case
This new information significantly strengthens your position for reimbursement. Here’s how:
Strengthened Argument
Reduced Trader Responsibility: Since you were monitoring buying power and NLV (standard metrics for options trading) and didn’t see the $2.8M cash figure until after the trades, Thinkorswim can’t easily argue you should’ve noticed the discrepancy earlier. An NLV of $350K seemed plausible, especially with a $143K daily gain, so you acted reasonably based on the platform’s data at the time.
Broader Bug Evidence: The platform wasn’t just inflating Cash & Sweep Vehicle—it was also misrepresenting your NLV during the trade window. This suggests a deeper systemic issue, possibly tied to how Thinkorswim valued your options positions or calculated margin requirements.
Direct Causation: The inflated NLV ($350K) and buying power ($128K for options) directly encouraged your leverage, as you stayed within the platform’s limits. The later correction to $89K NLV shows the platform’s error misled you at the critical moment, leading to the $305,000 loss.
Forced Actions: As previously noted, the early assignment and -$2.5M margin debt forced you to close the call side and liquidate other positions. This wasn’t discretionary but a reaction to the over-leveraged state the platform enabled.
Remaining Challenges
Proving the NLV Display: The partial screenshot showing $323,763.01 is helpful, but it’s from after the trades (likely around 1:24 pm or later). You’d need to recover logs showing the $350K NLV during the 11 am to 1 pm window to solidify this. Thinkorswim might argue the $350K was a temporary display glitch, not their fault.
Causation for Secondary Losses: They might still contest the $125,000 from margin call liquidations as too indirect, though the -$2.5M margin debt ties it closely to the initial trade.
Terms of Service: Their agreement likely limits liability for display errors unless there’s gross negligence. You’d need to argue this bug was a systemic failure they should’ve caught, especially with support’s ignorance of the 15:1 error.
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Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2025 4:47 pm
Reassessing Your Case
This new information significantly strengthens your position for reimbursement. Here’s how:
Strengthened Argument
Reduced Trader Responsibility: Since you were monitoring buying power and NLV (standard metrics for options trading) and didn’t see the $2.8M cash figure until after the trades, Thinkorswim can’t easily argue you should’ve noticed the discrepancy earlier. An NLV of $350K seemed plausible, especially with a $143K daily gain, so you acted reasonably based on the platform’s data at the time.
Broader Bug Evidence: The platform wasn’t just inflating Cash & Sweep Vehicle—it was also misrepresenting your NLV during the trade window. This suggests a deeper systemic issue, possibly tied to how Thinkorswim valued your options positions or calculated margin requirements.
Direct Causation: The inflated NLV ($350K) and buying power ($128K for options) directly encouraged your leverage, as you stayed within the platform’s limits. The later correction to $89K NLV shows the platform’s error misled you at the critical moment, leading to the $305,000 loss.
Forced Actions: As previously noted, the early assignment and -$2.5M margin debt forced you to close the call side and liquidate other positions. This wasn’t discretionary but a reaction to the over-leveraged state the platform enabled.
Remaining Challenges
Proving the NLV Display: The partial screenshot showing $323,763.01 is helpful, but it’s from after the trades (likely around 1:24 pm or later). You’d need to recover logs showing the $350K NLV during the 11 am to 1 pm window to solidify this. Thinkorswim might argue the $350K was a temporary display glitch, not their fault.
Causation for Secondary Losses: They might still contest the $125,000 from margin call liquidations as too indirect, though the -$2.5M margin debt ties it closely to the initial trade.
Terms of Service: Their agreement likely limits liability for display errors unless there’s gross negligence. You’d need to argue this bug was a systemic failure they should’ve caught, especially with support’s ignorance of the 15:1 error.
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Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2025 4:48 pm
Reassessing Your Case
This new information significantly strengthens your position for reimbursement. Here’s how:
Strengthened Argument
Reduced Trader Responsibility: Since you were monitoring buying power and NLV (standard metrics for options trading) and didn’t see the $2.8M cash figure until after the trades, Thinkorswim can’t easily argue you should’ve noticed the discrepancy earlier. An NLV of $350K seemed plausible, especially with a $143K daily gain, so you acted reasonably based on the platform’s data at the time.
Broader Bug Evidence: The platform wasn’t just inflating Cash & Sweep Vehicle—it was also misrepresenting your NLV during the trade window. This suggests a deeper systemic issue, possibly tied to how Thinkorswim valued your options positions or calculated margin requirements.
Direct Causation: The inflated NLV ($350K) and buying power ($128K for options) directly encouraged your leverage, as you stayed within the platform’s limits. The later correction to $89K NLV shows the platform’s error misled you at the critical moment, leading to the $305,000 loss.
Forced Actions: As previously noted, the early assignment and -$2.5M margin debt forced you to close the call side and liquidate other positions. This wasn’t discretionary but a reaction to the over-leveraged state the platform enabled.
Remaining Challenges
Proving the NLV Display: The partial screenshot showing $323,763.01 is helpful, but it’s from after the trades (likely around 1:24 pm or later). You’d need to recover logs showing the $350K NLV during the 11 am to 1 pm window to solidify this. Thinkorswim might argue the $350K was a temporary display glitch, not their fault.
Causation for Secondary Losses: They might still contest the $125,000 from margin call liquidations as too indirect, though the -$2.5M margin debt ties it closely to the initial trade.
Terms of Service: Their agreement likely limits liability for display errors unless there’s gross negligence. You’d need to argue this bug was a systemic failure they should’ve caught, especially with support’s ignorance of the 15:1 error.Reassessing Your Case
This new information significantly strengthens your position for reimbursement. Here’s how:
Strengthened Argument
Reduced Trader Responsibility: Since you were monitoring buying power and NLV (standard metrics for options trading) and didn’t see the $2.8M cash figure until after the trades, Thinkorswim can’t easily argue you should’ve noticed the discrepancy earlier. An NLV of $350K seemed plausible, especially with a $143K daily gain, so you acted reasonably based on the platform’s data at the time.
Broader Bug Evidence: The platform wasn’t just inflating Cash & Sweep Vehicle—it was also misrepresenting your NLV during the trade window. This suggests a deeper systemic issue, possibly tied to how Thinkorswim valued your options positions or calculated margin requirements.
Direct Causation: The inflated NLV ($350K) and buying power ($128K for options) directly encouraged your leverage, as you stayed within the platform’s limits. The later correction to $89K NLV shows the platform’s error misled you at the critical moment, leading to the $305,000 loss.
Forced Actions: As previously noted, the early assignment and -$2.5M margin debt forced you to close the call side and liquidate other positions. This wasn’t discretionary but a reaction to the over-leveraged state the platform enabled.
Remaining Challenges
Proving the NLV Display: The partial screenshot showing $323,763.01 is helpful, but it’s from after the trades (likely around 1:24 pm or later). You’d need to recover logs showing the $350K NLV during the 11 am to 1 pm window to solidify this. Thinkorswim might argue the $350K was a temporary display glitch, not their fault.
Causation for Secondary Losses: They might still contest the $125,000 from margin call liquidations as too indirect, though the -$2.5M margin debt ties it closely to the initial trade.
Terms of Service: Their agreement likely limits liability for display errors unless there’s gross negligence. You’d need to argue this bug was a systemic failure they should’ve caught, especially with support’s ignorance of the 15:1 error.
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Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2025 4:49 pm
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