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The 1998 Election

In placing Estrada's election into context, it should be noted that Philippine political parties aren't very different from one another. Unlike the Republicans and Democrats in the states or the Tories and Labour in England, they are pretty much indistinguishable in terms of policy and philosophy. They are at root élite old boys' clubs, controlled by politicians and businessmen who have been wealthy and powerful for generations. Thus, the recent defection of Senator Ramon Magsaysay, Jr. (author of the much-ballyhooed E-Commerce Act) from the President's party was a non-event. Party switching in the Philippines is a long-established pattern that raises no eyebrows at all.

In concrete terms, elections and the political system itself are still largely driven by the politics of personality. Voters do not identify with political parties, they identify with individuals. As Conrad de Quiros noted in the Philippine Daily Inquirer in 1998: "nobody remembers the party, everybody remembers the candidate".

President Estrada won by a large margin (6 million votes) over his nearest rival, Jose de Venecia. He garnered nearly 40% of the vote in a field of ten "presidentiables", compared to only 24% for Ramos in 1992. Erap, of course, was swept into office on the strength of the support of the masa, the Class C-D-E voters. They knew him as a popular movie actor who specialized in Robin Hood roles. The urban and rural masses related to Erap; his English was only slightly better than theirs and he was quick to play to their sensibilities (although he himself was from an élite family). At the same time, the tremendous criticism directed at Erap by other politicians and the media (he's ignorant, a womanizer, an intellectual pygmy, a brawler, a gambler, a heavy drinker, ad infinitum) backfired. Many of the masa saw such putdowns as reflecting on themselves, and many undecided voters no doubt voted for Erap out of sympathy. (Some of my earlier commentaries on the administration include Filipino Political Theatre and Two Years With Erap).

The last two years have demonstrated just how flawed the Philippine democratic system is. Erap's election is clearly understandable given the above dynamics. However, the fallout of his ascension to power has not been pretty. While corruption and a crony-dominated system may not prevent a country from growing during boom times, such a system can create major problems during bad economic times. And that describes the current situation accurately.

If we think of the transition from the Marcos dictatorship (dark ages) to Aquino (transitional administration) to Ramos (breakthrough administration) as three steps up a progressive ladder, then the election of Estrada in 1998 represented a throwback to a crony-dominated system that should never have happened.

The toppling of a corrupt Filipino president was not a victory for "people power", writes John Elliott

She was an unlikely nemesis -- a four-foot-something, attractive Asian lady who told the nation in a 1997 Valentine's Day message: "I treasure true love. I want you to be part of my dream."

In fact, this American-educated former economics professor and senior Filipino politician played a central role in the downfall of President Joseph Estrada, succeeding him in the job that he had held for two and a half years. Other women--Estrada's harem of wives and mistresses -- also played a role in his downfall, as did his incessant drinking and gambling, plus the way he allowed businessmen and gambling cronies to line their pockets.

Without Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, a young-looking 53-year-old, Estradamight still be president. Arroyo gave the Filipino establishment the confidence to oust Estrada because, under the country's constitution, the vice-president automatically takes on the top job -- and Gloria (as she is popularly known) was the crowd-pleasing vice-president. Arroyo's elevation was welcomed around the world as a victory for "people power"; yet her appointment was neither democratic nor constitutional. As Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore's elder statesman, pointed out, the Philippines' constitutional requirement of a vote in the Senate had been ignored.

"People power" has a special ring in the Philippines because of the genuine people's movement that brought down Ferdinand Marcos, the former president and one of Estrada's mentors, in 1986. But it was not "people power", any more than it was constitutional democracy, that started the ball rolling against Estrada: it was Luis "Chavil" Singson, a corrupt provincial governor, local "warlord" and national power-broker, who announced last October that he had helped the president take $10m in illegal gambling kickbacks and leakages from tobacco taxes.

This "old friend" was persuaded (by whatever means) to go public with his allegations by opposition politicians and the Philippines' old establishment-- which brings us back to Arroyo. She comes from an important political family, the Macapagals, which has the sort of business connections that are inevitable in a country where the lot of the 75 million-strong population is controlled by an oligarchic business-political elite. The same goes for her husband, Mike Arroyo, a lawyer. Her father was president from 1961-65, and gained a reputation as a committed, though only partially successful, economic reformer. Her elder sister, Cielo Macapagal Salgado, has twice been a regional vice-governor and is a director of the Philippine National Bank.

The first hint that Estrada, who had been elected in May 1998 with a record majority, might be ousted came in November 1999, when a Texas-based political risk consultancy called Stratfor put an article on the internet. This forecast that he was "unlikely to complete his six-year term".

Estrada had played into his opponents' hands by continuing his playboy lifestyle, gambling with cronies into the early hours, and failing to get to grips with the country's failing economy -- the fiscal deficit is growing and growth is down to between 2 and 3 per cent, at a time when most other regional economies are recovering from the late-1990s Asian financial crisis with growth rates of more than 5 per cent.

That report was immediately picked up in Manila, where the press ran headlines such as "the president's days are numbered" -- sparking rumours of an imminent military coup. Stratfor specialises in news analysis and geopolitical forecasting and is owned by Strategic Forecasting Inc and Stratfor Systems of Austin, Texas, which does private political and business risk consulting for government and corporate clients. It started as a think-tank affiliated to Louisiana State University, made its name on the net as a reliable source of information during the Kosovo crisis, and now produces daily worldwide analysis of varying reliability, mostly culled from secondary sources. None of this proves any official American association with an anti-Estrada plot -- but in the past couple of weeks, the consultancy did forecast that Arroyo's presidency will strengthen ties with the US.

The allegations against him estimated sums of up to $60m in ill-gotten wealth. In addition to the gambling kickbacks, they included interfering with a securities scam investigation, insider dealing and diverting church charity funds.

Such stories were doing the rounds when Singson's gambling kickback revelations were made public on 9 October. A month later, impeachment proceedings started against Estrada and, in late December, a banker claimed she had witnessed Estrada trying to open a $10m secret bank account under an assumed name.

By this time, Estrada's fate was virtually sealed because the "people power" street protests were reaching a crescendo. They were organised by an unlikely alliance of businessmen, old soldiers, the left and other dissidents, led by the former presidents Fidel Ramos and Cory Aquino (with whom Arroyo has close links), plus Cardinal Jaime Sin, who wields extensive power in this devoutly Catholic country. Bomb blasts in Manila at the end of December added to the sense of crisis. The final crunch was the resignation of cabinet ministers and a decision by the army chief, Diomedio Villaneuva, to withdraw his support.

Arroyo's instincts will be to push economic reforms, which will please the markets -- stock prices rose by 30 per cent within a few days of her taking power. In her inauguration speech, however, Arroyo recognised that she would also need to tackle social and economic inequalities -- but to do so, she will have to attack her own privileged oligarchy.

That is why many of the poor still think that they were better off with Estrada -- his corruption did them no more damage than the elite's manipulation of political and economic power has done for generations.

You thought the Civil War was over? Well, you were wrong.
Those good ole' boys down South sho 'nuff do revile the federal
government. This past Thursday, in a grandstanding performance
worthy of an oscar-nominated actor, Alabama State Supreme
Court Justice Roy S. Moore vowed { in a voice trembling with
righteous indignation } to continue the fight to keep his proselytizing
"Ten Commandments Monument" in the rotunda of the Alabama
Judicial building. -- Ignoring the order of the US District court
that the statue must be removed by August 20th of this year.

Judge Moore is determined that he will proselytyze to the masses,
and promote his Christian faith on Alabama state government
property, and no proxy of the federal government { in this instance,
U.S. District Judge Myron H. Thompson who issued the ruling }
is going to tell him anything different. Justice Moore might as
well put on his gray uniform. Because it's going to be the battle
of the Blue versus the Gray one more time.

Will the South go to battle again under the code words "states
rights?" -- And you thought this crisis was about religion, didn't
you?

Here is how Justice Moore views this fight.

"They { the federal courts } have no power, no authority, no
jurisdiction to tell the state of Alabama that we cannot acknowledge
God, as the source of our law...."

Just replace the word "God" with a few thoughts about the legitimacy
of slavery in the South, and those quotes would sound like something
right out of a speech from the pre-Civil War era.

And those were just a few of the kinder words the justice used.

Here is more...

"...The very purpose of the First Admendment to the United States
Constitution was to allow the freedom to worship God, but today
that freedom is being taken away from us by federal courts who
misuse the First Admendment as a sword to take away our rights,
instead of a shield to preserve them for us."

Obviously Justice Moore sees this as a battle of biblical proportions.

They must really do things differently down in Alabama. Separation
of church and state is a concept they just can't grasp. But, the
argument is really abut something very basic. It is about the arrogance
of people who hold that their religious principles and ideals are more
important than everyone else's. Thus, when such individuals watch
quietly - and do nothing - as religion crosses that line into the affairs
of the state. It is okay....because it is their "anointed" religion.

Because you can rest assure that Justice Moore doesn't care what
any Muslim, Buddhist, Jew, Hindu, etc., thinks when they walk into
that rotunda and are forced { by the monument's mere girth } to
contemplate the meaning and signficance of this 5,280 pound granite
tribute to a religion that is not their own. -- Not withstanding, that
these groups tax dollars help support and keep that judicial building,
clean and presentable to the public.

Does Justice Roy S. Moore really care about the non-Christians
down in Alabama? From his press conference one can only wonder.
Fundamentalists of his type tolerate non-Christians { when they
are not trying to convert them }. Because the "God" that the Justice
"pleads" that the state of Alabama has the right to acknowledge,
certainly ain't Buddha.

And what about the state of Alabama itself? Will the publicity
from this never-ending court case help the needy citizens down
there?

Alabama is hardly an economic juggernaut like New York,
Texas, or Florida. Or even the currently-troubled California.
The public school systems in Alabama rank far behind the
nation's best.

Maybe if Justice Moore could get just as indignant about the
problems of health care for the elderly, or the worn out and
decrepit county roads in some of the poorer sections of the state,
not to mention the status and treatment of those unfortunate to
be incarcerated in Alabama, then perhaps Justice Moore could
do something positive for all the people in that state.

But as usual religion becomes a can't-lose platform for "politicians"
who want to carry-on about "what they believe in," as if there are
no other problems in the entire world. -- Outside of some federal
agitators stopping them from practicing their faith.

This is an old battle. It has been fought time and again. The words
and the arguments { on both sides } are all the same. And, the
result, in the end, will be no different.

The monument will removed. In part, because it is simply too large,
too obvious, and too intrusive. The monument all but proclaims.
"Alabama is a Christian state. Founded and ruled by Christians."

That is why the U.S. District Court was correct in ruling that the
monument should be removed from the rotunda. The people of
Alabama are free to worship as they please. But, the courthouse
is not a place of worship. The judicial bench is not a pulpit.

Justice Moore is crusading for what he believes Christianity ought
to represent in public life. He knows that. And all clear-thinking
people realize his game. He is fighting a battle for a particular group
of citizens of the state of Alabama. But not for all the citizens of that
state.

{ in fact, this crisis would not be occuring at all, if the justice would
simply obey the law and remove the monument }

The individuals in Alabama who do not share the justice's particular
brand of Christianity are apparently invisible to him. And inconsequential.
And are not in any way a part of the equation that dictates his
intransigent stance on this issue.

Alabama is not the place it was in the 1800's or the 1900's. Neither
is the United States, in general. The population of this country is
remarkably more diverse than it was just a couple of generations ago.
In these times we must be more diligent on this issue. Not less so.

No matter how purposeful or well-intended is the Christian evangelism
that is sweeping across some sections of this country, religion must
remain separate from the affairs of the state. -- And clearly so.

All citizens of any locale in this country must feel that they are equal
in the eyes of the law. And are not judged - whether silently or overtly
- on the basis of their personal belief system.

Alabama State Supreme Court Justice Roy S. Moore is over the line.
His actions betray a strong religious arrogance, as if he is blinded by
the purity of his own faith. He places his religious beliefs above the
very law he has been sworn to uphold. In fact, Justice Moore has
stated that he believes "law" derives from God. { the God of the Christian
faith }

Not from man.

In truth, the justice has the right to believe just that.

Such an attitude might be extremely appropriate for an individual preaching
from the pulpit. - And trying to save souls. And the debate about where
the main principles of American judicial law originated from, would make
an ideal subject for discussion in a philosophy class. But, Justice Moore's
attitude speaks poorly for an individual who is supposed to represent and
protect the rights of all citizens from an impartial and fair bench. -- At least,
as much so, as is humanly possible.

The bench is not the proper place for an individual who in all instances,
public, private, official, and unofficial believes that his or her's religious
beliefs are superior to all other systems of faith. And that their religious
beliefs are "above" the same law that they have been sworn to uphold
in an impartial manner.

There are many sad examples in the world today - and throughout history
- of the abuses that follow when such grandiosity is not thwarted.

The principle of the separation of church and state protects the vulnerable
minority, from the irrepressible majority, and keeps in check, otherwise
principled men, who when in positions of high authority, are intoxicated
by their own sense of righteousness.

this is the fate of our country if no one will act soon and be concern of philippines




Well, it's been a couple of months since the Philippines narrowly avoided political and economic meltdown. And make no mistake about it - 'twas a very close call. The entire business community breathed a huge and collective sigh of relief after the exhilarating events of People Power II (referred to as "Edsa Dos" hereabouts). Indeed, we owe a debt of gratitude to those 11 Senators who voted to keep envelope #2 sealed (thanks, guys). Had the trial dragged on much longer we would have been in deep trouble.

Okay, well and good. The Philippines played chicken with fate and escaped by the skin on its teeth. And, obviously, the situation now is preferable by a long shot to the dead-in-the-water scenarios that were swirling around prior to Edsa Dos.

But it's premature to celebrate.

How about a quick and dirty assessment borrowing a cinematic metaphor from Sergio Leone? The situation is replete with good, bad, and ugly aspects. Let's apply that spaghetti Western metaphor to four key sectors: the economy, politics, the armed forces and police, and the church.


The Economy


The Good: Merrill Lynch, in it's March 20 Asian Economic Trends, forecasts Philippines' growth in 2001 at 3.2%, making this the only Asian country for which the projection increased from the December report (which pegged 2001 growth at a miserly 2.2%). The EIU is projecting 3.4% GDP growth, while the government (predictably) is slightly more optimistic. (These projections, however, don't take into account the disturbing economic news from the states over the last week or so). Not the greatest numbers, but a heck of a lot better than would be the case if Edsa Dos hadn't occurred.

Potential foreign investors are actually showing up for AmCham's dog and pony shows, which were recently playing to empty conference rooms. This past week a trade mission of American executives heard testimonials from Ford Motor Philippines and others about GMA's positive economic policies and the quality of Filipino workers. Three specific investment commitments were announced (although no contracts were signed) and the assembled promised to spread the good word back home. Kraft Food International just announced that the Philippines will serve as its hub for regional expansion in Southeast Asia, India, and the Pacific Islands, and Fed Ex wants to extend its lease for its Subic hub.

The Philippines has tremendous promise in electronics and IT-enabled services. Globalization brings with it a free flow of information, and multinational corporations are taking advantage of the Internet in a huge way. Large companies are concentrating on their core competencies and outsourcing secondary functions (everything from customer service to back end programming to medical transcription). And many of those functions represent important economic opportunities for the Philippines.

The Bad: The country remains over-dependent on electronic sector exports, and (if the states' free fall continues) may be about to pay the price. Almost 60% of Philippine exports in 2000 were made up of semi-conductors. Further, a good proportion of those exports are concentrated in the American market. Ouch.

The Ugly: The ugly has to do with the global economy, which is not a soothing thing right now. High tech firms find their inventories piling up, which means exporting firms here (and in other Asian countries) are going to be hurt. The entire region is flirting with recession. The US economy has at least a bad cold and is sneezing repeatedly; as a consequence, the threat of pneumonia is hanging ominously in the air.

Politics


The Good: It goes without saying that the political leadership now is superior to what we had before. At least the head of state understands economic issues and is doing her best to provide decent political leadership. Few question GMA's commitment or good intentions, and she probably doesn't have millions of dollars in bank accounts under fake names.

The Bad: The current election campaign illustrates the deeply ingrained problems of the Philippines' political system. The leading Senate candidate in the polls, Noli de Castro, has as his main claim to fame a well-known face thanks to his years as popular TV newsman. Posters are plastered all over the place (Manila wallpaper), but none of the candidates is coming within a mile of a coherent policy platform. The country is in a mess, and this is a beauty contest.

Envelopmental journalism is still a fact of life ("envelopmental" refers to the way cash is placed in envelopes in exchange for favorable coverage). According to the grapevine, going rates are about what they were in 1998. One veteran columnist at an influential daily gets P 25,000 (US $500) for writing 2-3 favorable paragraphs about a candidate (can't do the whole story, too obvious). Photographers get about P500 ($10) per photo published, reporters get P 5,000 ($100) for using a press releases more or less as-is.

Then there's still the reality of guns, goons, and gold, the traditionally corrupt Filipino political process (see Filipino Political Theatre and Cronies and Booty Capitalism). There will still be some dagdag-bawas (literally "add-subtract") in the vote counting, probably involving the mistabulation of returns at the provincial level. Wholesale fraud has long been a feature of Philippine elections, although at least now there are brave and resourceful investigative journalists from places like the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism to unearth the more obvious discrepancies between municipal and provincial tallies. Oh well, at least elections are less violent than they used to be, possibly due to term limits that discourage a kill-or-be-killed philosophy.

The Ugly: There's a certain ex-president lurking about, fulminating about how he should still be immune from prosecution and how the masa (masses) will rise up in fury if he is arrested. Which is a lot of baloney. He is guilty, the prosecution's case is very strong, and the chances of the Supreme Court ruling in his favor are about the same as the chances of snow in Manila this week. But as long as Erap is allowed to continue his rabble rousing, he's a nagging thorn in the side that is keeping investors away. He's obviously a desperate man and doesn't care how badly he hurts his country. Did he care about the Philippines when he was so doggedly hanging on to power even as it became clear the whole country was going down the tubes?

The Army/Police


The Good: GMA named General Angelo Reyes Defense Secretary this week, which is probably a good thing. Reyes, of course, was the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief of staff under Erap whose withdrawal of support was crucial at Edsa Dos. The appointment was obviously intended to unify the military and n** dissension in the bud. Hopefully it will do the trick.

The Bad: GMA has been spending much of her time brown-nosing the military. This is not surprising, and is perhaps necessary given the key role play by the officer corps at EDSA. On Armed Forces Day, GMA's speech was loaded with flattery and included announcements of new legislation improving benefits for the military. Several key appointments are retired generals. But some folks are asking if the administration isn't just a little too chummy with (and dependent upon) the military.

The Ugly: Last week, an unidentified spokesman for the Young Officers Union (YOU) surfaced for an "anonymous" newspaper interview. YOU was closely associated with Erap and before that launched a number of coup attempts against Cory. The young officer called GMA a "left-leaning commander in chief" and gave a rather confused interview peppered with incendiary comments.

Although the comments were questioned by other leftist groups in short order, the always-reactionary Enrile jumped right in, saying that the Army generals (read Reyes) who withdrew their support from the Estrada administration at the last minute set a bad example by violating the constitution, so what do you expect from the young turks? Other ugly factors include the involvement of police in helping certain candidates (moonlighting in the goon role?), continued involvement of police in kidnappings of rich Chinese-Filipinos, and troubling accusations involving little things like torture and murder on the part of Ping Lacson (former head of the Philippine National Police, now running for Senate).

The Church


The Good: Well, this is the shortest of my good-bad-ugly sections. Let's just say Christian values are in general a good thing, Mother Teresa did good work, and I've got nothing against the Pope.

The Bad: GMA makes no secret of her piety and faith, which is fine. But she doesn't seem to grasp the concept of separation of church and state. She recently gave a keynote speech at an international conference on reproductive health in Manila. The speech was filled with generalities and waffling, but clearly had Cardinal Sin's stamp all over it. The issue of rapid population growth (currently 2.7% per annum, one of the highest in Asia) must eventually be addressed or bad things will happen. Period.

The Ugly: Jose Javier Reyes, chairman of the Director's Guild of the Philippines, wrote and directed an existential and engaging film dealing with the more sordid side of Manila, specifically the sad lives of young people who make their living performing live sex on stage (see Eva from Cebu for my own take on the sex industry here). Originally entitled Toro (slang term for live sex performers), the film premiered to international acclaim at the 50th Berlin International Filmfest and subsequently played to enthusiastic audiences at 12 other film fests in North America, Europe and Australia. By the time it opened here under the name Live Show it had brought some badly needed international credibility to a stagnant Filipino film industry.

Predictably, the Catholic Church immediately started pressuring the administration to suppress the flick. GMA obliged by issuing a letter suspending the film's showing and directing the head of the Movie and Television Review and Classification Board (MTRCG) to ban it from theaters. To his credit, Dr. Nicanor Tiongson, the gentleman in question, resigned rather than do so. He had given up a prestigious Berkeley teaching gig to come back and serve the Arroyo administration. Tiongson described his meeting with Cardinal Sin as "very traumatizing". Sin, of course, is adamant that "deviating from moral law violates the principle of freedom".

GMA's letter is informative and a bit scary in its kowtowing to the Church: "...I am for the full flowering of the arts; this is a basic commitment of my administration. As Henry James put it, it is art that makes life; this is clear, indubitably so. Yet the controversial film is not about art... " No mention of the fact that the 1987 (Edsa) Constitution guarantees freedom of expression.


Is the Bottom Line Good, Bad or Ugly?


Well, as any fan of Spaghetti Westerns can tell you, the Man with No Name (Clint Eastwood) is at root good, although you have to peel away the layers of complexity to figure that out. Angel Eyes (the Lee Van Cleef character) is bad, while Tuco (Eli Wallach) is downright ugly.

The problem in the Philippines is that it's hard to sort out all the players and all but impossible to know what's going to happen next. Uncertainty abounds. Will Erap be arrested? If so, what will happen? Which way will the election go? What will happen if the opposition does better than expected? Are the investors sniffing around serious, or just looking at the Philippines as a fallback position? Can the Philippines really leverage its advantages (especially its human resources) and surf the wave of globalization? What's going to happen with NASDAQ and the Dow Jones? How bad is the American slump going to be? Will the Philippines army mind its own business and stay professional? Will any semblance of family planning be possible in an environment dominated by the Church?

Don't look at me for answers, I just pose intriguing questions. As an entrepreneurial management consultant hanging in there and trying to go along for the ride, I'm hoping for the best. As a realist and perennial skeptic, I am nervous. As an Amerikano sympatico to the Filipino nation and people, I am hoping that everything breaks just right. I just wish that Clint Eastwood would come riding over the hill, gun blazing and cigarette hanging just so, to sort out the situation and make sure that good prevails over bad and ugly. But I'm not holding my breath.

The Situation in the Philippines I appreciate this opportunity to review recent developments in the Philippines. The Philippines has changed enormously for the better over the past year and a half, in ways that strengthen basic U.S. interests and the cause of democracy throughout the world. Despite this progress, President Aquino's government continues to face formidable economic, political, and security challenges--the product of over a decade of economic mismanagement and political abuse.

I met with President Aquino on September 17 and was impressed with her confidence and determination. She fully understands the continuing problems she faces and was in the midst of putting together a stronger, more cohesive cabinet. She remains determined to fulfill her democratic mandate and govern her country successfully. I believe that if anyone can do this difficult job, she can. She is working to improve civil-military relations and fully appreciates how difficult the task is. I presented her with a letter from President Reagan expressing his strong support. I also gave to President Aquino the unanimous resolutions passed by both the Senate and the House of Representatives. President Aquino is grateful for the strong bipartisan support of Congress for the democratic government she heads. At the same time, President Aquino clearly recognizes that Philippine problems must be solved by the Filipinos. But we must do what we can.

Two weeks ago, Secretary Shultz and I met with acting Foreign Minister Yan in New York. In that meeting, we discussed ways in which the United States could be more helpful to the Philippines. Acting Foreign Secretary Yan recognizes the severe budgetary limitations we face and that foreign assistance is only one factor in promoting Philippine economic revival. In this austere resources environment, we know that we must develop ways to assist the Philippines in resolving its enormous problems; we are working on these problems urgently and look forward to your support.

itslike a turmoil here...the onlything that they are witing for is big movement