And the RNG hates us this turn, because Ziaram can't move and Shinon rolls a goddamn 2 for attack, leaving the fighter with 2HP.
I'll give you a bit of insight into what I mean when I mention chances of survival.
I have a custom function written up for Gamble that essentially goes "roll dX, store it in variable A, and if A={2,4,6,8,10} then take A, add 4 to that, and make that the result, otherwise just take A." Then I use that function, I add that to Jaren's Pursuit (because he's going to use Pursuit, he'd be an idiot if he didn't), and the final calculation looks a little something like this:
(2d8+9+1-1-D)+([gamble d10]+8+1-D)
where D is a variable I use to swap out defence on the fly
For Jaren, this does his 2d8 for pursuit, plus his 9ATK, +1 for Iron Sword, and -1 for disadvantage against lances.
For barbarian, this invokes my function, adds 8ATK, adds +1 for advantage against lances.
Then I calculate the odds of all results for
at least a given value. So when I say you've got an 80% chance of survival, more accurately what I'm saying is "This given calculation tells me that they have a 20% chance of doing
at least enough damage to kill you." But I'm an optimist, so I spin it around. So for the given example above, I fill in D=13, which accounts for Mihira's 11DEF +2 for Fort, and an "at least" calculation for 12HP churns out 28.125%, which I round to two decimal places because nobody gives a s**t, and I come back and tell you you've got a 28.13% chance of dying, or if I want to sound optimistic about it I say you've got a 71.88% chance of survival, which is essentially an "at most" calculation for 12.
I bring this up because after the last turn where Mihira went down to 2HP, people were wondering if I was pulling these numbers out of my a** because "survival doesn't mean 2HP", and the answer is "yes, it does, when I calculate based on 'at least'".
TL;DR: IGNORE EVERYTHING ABOVE THIS.Shinon left the dude with 2HP because the dice hate us this round. Vika could finish him off, but then she's in deep trouble because little birdie's got about a 78% chance of dying. Also, I'm fairly sure Seth can't rescue and Pavise at the same time, so that leaves the rest of our turn extremely up in limbo. If Mihira's retreating, it might be best for Vika to, as well, because even camping on that fort leaves her up to a 50/50 split of death.
It's suggested in Blast that Vika moves to 19 to kill fighter, takes the poison, Mihira retreats back, and Seth holds the line with Pavise.