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 Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2011 6:18 pm
melikefood What's the mafia/town ratio in this game? I wanna punch out probability calculations. Between 3:1 and 2:1 depending on how many neutrals are in play.  Hope that helps.
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Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2011 6:38 pm
20 minutes till end of day one.
You nervous yet?
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Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2011 6:55 pm
Ok.
If we kill somebody randomly and it's 3:1 our chances of killing mafia is 25%, Our chance of killing an innocent is 75%. (This is assuming no neutrals)
If it's 2:1, then our chance of killing an innocent is down to 50%, mafia is 25%, and 25% of killing the other roles. (This is assuming 2 neutrals)
If we no lynch and mafia kill succeeds then we aren't too bad off if the ratio is 3:1.
However if it's 2:1 there's a serial killer flying around then there are 2 kills per night. If we no lynch and the doc fails and both kills are townies then our ratio turns to 2:2 which means we have to for sure kill mafia the next day. Half the vote will go to the neutral roles on that day assuming all of that.
Hur dur. 5 minutes to digest all that and vote.
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Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2011 7:01 pm
Day Two: Day One 2 - Electric Turnabout
Sympathizing with Caramel, you agreed to lynch her teacher Ann Atamy.
In your face, education system!
But in all seriousness, no one was harmed. Not even by the guilty or the witnesses.
Day Two ends in 24 hours. All roles and votes must be in by then.
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Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2011 7:02 pm
I was actually at work and wasnt home till about now
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Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2011 7:16 pm
Cabron LaSwan Day Two: Day One 2 - Electric Turnabout
Sympathizing with Caramel, you agreed to lynch her teacher Ann Atamy.
In your face, education system!
But in all seriousness, no one was harmed. Not even by the guilty or the witnesses.
Day Two ends in 24 hours. All roles and votes must be in by then. good thing too, she deserved it.
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Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:39 pm
Nobody dying isn't helping me determine the spread well... :/
Even in the worst case scenario, we'll still be okay to continue voting no lynch. We can determine what the spread is based on how many people die.
For now I vote No Lynch
As for the next day...
If two people die, then it's 2:1 (one SK victim and one Mafia victim)
If one person dies it's 3:1 (one mafia victim)
(This assumes that bulletproof is not targeted and the doctor is not active.)
If two people die, the chances of killing mafia rises to 1/3 (assuming 2:1)
If one person dies the chances of killing mafia is like 2/7 (assuming 3:1)
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Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2011 11:02 pm
mfw I realized the day was over at 10 mfw I realized even if it ended at midnight it was 2am 
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Posted: Wed Jun 22, 2011 7:56 am
We all failed the first day and I even thought it was midnight even tho I knew it was 10 when the day ended rofl
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Posted: Wed Jun 22, 2011 10:31 am
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Posted: Wed Jun 22, 2011 10:40 am
well I am off to hang with some friends for a bit so I will hopefully be back before end of day
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Posted: Wed Jun 22, 2011 11:19 am
Eight hours till end of day.
There isn't a meme for Day One 3, so something had best happen or I might just modkill somebody. lol jk
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misternitsua generated a random number between
1 and 7 ...
5!
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Posted: Wed Jun 22, 2011 1:51 pm
Alright, I think we can do this in a fair and impartial manner
1. Shiny Gligar
2. melikefood
3. ILI
4. Kath
5. Swyff
6. Rhed
7. Caramel
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Posted: Wed Jun 22, 2011 1:52 pm
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Caramel Kisses generated a random number between
1 and 7 ...
5!
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Posted: Wed Jun 22, 2011 2:34 pm
Sounds like a plan to me...
1. Shiny Gligar
2. melikefood
3. I_love_Inuyasha1
4. l-Kathulu-l
5. Swyff
6. misternitsua
7. Rhed King
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