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 Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2011 9:53 pm
Michael Noire I'd worry about stealing tomatoes because I'd have to have a buyer and freezing them is more complex than freezing meat. So instead of a 6-12 month window with a fridge, I'd have 6-12 days. right now the silver prices are slumping, which is good. I hope they continue to slump so I can get a 2 oz kookaburra for less than the local coin guy wanted to sell them for. It's the principle of the thing. I don't think finding a tomato buyer would be that difficult considering how many of them are used on a daily basis.
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Posted: Fri May 06, 2011 9:16 am
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Latest-News-Wires/2011/0505/Silver-s-plunge-spreads-to-oil-prices-copper
as you can see, my prediction that oil and silver were tied together is being analyzed as a market reality. Right now, silver is dropping drastically, which means if you were following my game plan, you would continue to buy with the same amount cash you spent before, but you would also get more silver for your currency - be it pounds, loons, dollars, or euros.
I predict silver may hit as low as 32 US dollars an ounce but may rise over $50 as soon as Winter. I'm also guessing - this is just my gut, that silver prices will skyrocket in 2012 as a response to Mayan prophecy fears and the realization of the national debt with the possibility of defaulting on the loans.
Personally, If I was the government, I would not only default on the loans, I would send the CIA to seize by force the organizations that claimed to have lent me the money, because I already know its a bunch of corporations similar to Allianz and Fidelity, not real people.
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Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2011 2:16 pm
so recently i've been looking into the trends and news with regards to bullion. I can tell you right off the bat, gold = Dow, silver = oil. I was thinking about writing a conversion of daily goods,
1 oz silver = 10 gallons gas
1 oz silver =10 gallons of milk
1 oz silver = 8 packs of cigarettes (after tax)
1 oz silver = 20 packs of cigarettes (before tax)
1 oz silver = 8 large t-shirts
1 oz silver = 6 generic baseball hats
1 oz silver = 2 designer baseball hats
you get the idea.
What I wanted to talk about was executive order 6102, passed in the 1930s by Roosevelt. It has been said Obama created a mini version that targets American exchanges, particularly an email reportedly sourced through one of the big gold sellers. It is said to go into effect in July 15th of 2011, although it will not directly impact every dealer. Whether this means it's a good idea to start stocking up on precious metals prior to this date is up to you, but the government of 1933 actually confiscated people's money, much like California recently confiscated 1200 firearms from people who had purchased them legally. What does all this mean? Well, if you are paranoid, it means "they" are coming to take your guns and your gold. I personally don't own guns or gold, so I have no comment on either.
Meanwhile, Looking at the markets, Greece is not a pretty sight, and we are probably going to bomb Syria and default on the Chinese debt. What that means is gas prices are about to sky rocket while the dollar plummets and silver will likely scale that mountain again. I'm expecting our economy to start stabilizing in 2016, and gold to hit between 3600 and 5000 an ounce in 2020. I'm also expecting several domestic disturbances by 2015, possibly linked to being in four+ wars and the double trouble of The United States trying to simultaneously pay off it's own debt while it backs a decaying European union - defeated by the weight of Greece, Ireland, and Spain.
Did I mention Turkey will probably get all "Armenian Genocide 2.0' on their people? Yeah, life's a b***h. Buy metals.
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Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 2:08 pm
If you pair [Metal] : DOW
You get an idea of how much "stuff" your metal buys. Because the DOW is just industrial companies that produce goods which pretty much have to be derived from other commodities.
When you pair USD : DOW, then you see how much dollars buy in industrial goods.
But when you pair Metal : USD, you don't get a realistic picture of the value of metal. Because even if the USD does go up in comparison to the metal, it may not go up enough to compensate for higher prices, and a higher DOW, while the metal can stay proportional.
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Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 4:47 pm
I don't know anything about bullion, but I do wanna invest in gold after I actually get a good sum of money so I'm hoping to learn about it.
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Posted: Fri Jun 24, 2011 10:55 am
the government has decided to uncap several oil reserves and for the next couple of weeks, gas prices should drop and keep relatively lower than expected. You can already see the signs of this as silver approaches 34 dollars. As I've stated in the past, silver and oil are related, as gold and the dow are connected.
Silver speculators are more likely to get grabby during a crisis, and less nervous during a surplus of low priced commodities. Oil drives the price of commodities like food and goods, because 18 wheelers use oil to transport those goods. The more oil costs, the more it costs to transport goods, so the price goes up. Simple-stupid.
Well high priced oil means commodities sky rocket, and when commodities sky rocket, some businesses go under, causing the total revenue to drop, creating a chain reaction. That chain reaction drives up the price of silver, because people worry they won't have a currency that can be used to purchase bread for their families, so instead they turn to metals. Gold is so damned expensive now that it only matters to people who can afford it - if you can afford gold, you aren't worried about loaves of bread, you are worried about buying houses, vehicles, and business investments, which is why you need something stable like gold to trade in.
After the oil reserves we are tapping start to get low, the government will probably cap them again, and even if they dont, they will run out, and oil will start to climb rapidly, possibly as soon as Christmas.
I've also heard rumors that gold could hit as high as 10,000/ounce if the government decides to start using it to back currency values. It would actually be very clever of them to let americans pay their taxes in $1500/ounce gold and then turn around and artificially jack it to $10,000/ounce to pay off the debts to countries we like and default on the other loans, but that's pure speculation.
Silver, on the other hand, is based purely on the fears of starvation and depression related to oil shortages, so they will only go up over the decades, unless fracking becomes the most popular thing since the interwebs.
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Posted: Fri Jun 24, 2011 11:31 am
Hmmmm...interesting.
So, basically you're saying that when gas prices get to their lowest and are expected to go up in the future, that is the time to invest in silver. And then when gas gets up to around $5/gal would be the time to sell. Would you recommend investing in silver when gas prices go down even for first time investors?
I sure hope I understood what you were saying, I'm not trying to sound like a dumbass here =P
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Posted: Fri Jun 24, 2011 2:55 pm
Silver and Gold follow the same track. It's better to get $20, $30, $40 here and there to buy silver, and exchange them for gold rather than try to save dollars to buy gold. That's like trying to fish for gold using a helium balloon at the end of your fishing rod..... If inflation goes up, all commodities go up.
Silver is more volatile than gold in the short run because it's so cheap, anyone can get into it easily. But they both fallow the same long term trends.
Right now I own 65.oz of silver, that's 4 pounds of silver. As prices fall I'll be buying more.
Metals prices rise and fall for four reasons:
1. Increased Supply mined out of the ground.
2. Increased confidence in the dollar
3. Higher interest rates
4. Market manipulation.
Right now we have a combination of #2, 3, and 4.
2. People are becoming more confident that the dollar will be "fixed"
3. Fed (says they) will stop printing money / stimulating. Although they didn't say they would raise interest rates, eventually they should or inflation will still occur (for many reasons).
4. Market is being manipulated by tapping existing supplies, this has a short time effect on the market, increases people's confidence #2, and makes the public think things are getting better.
In reality they might as well use a box of band-aids on a leaky pipe, eventually they will run out, and the market cannot be manipulated anymore #4. The Fed will have to raise interest rates #3 which will encourage deflation (and a longer recession), and that will of course hurt people's confidence #2.
______________________________________
Making a profit...
Making a profit is all relative to what you want... There are 3 ways to sell at a profit.
1. Buy low when the price is low (and it is falling, and sell high when the prices rise), and nothing suggests in the long term the prices won't rise above $40.oz.
2. Buy now and forever and never sell until you reach an older age. Because historically for 100 years (and anytime a nation has used fiat currency), the metal will always become more valuable than the dollars we get paid with for our entire lives. So it makes sense if you want to 'save money', you would save metals, and never spend them unless you had to, or had a good reason to.
3. You trade them as an investment. You buy them low, and you sell them high in exchange for another asset that is presently underpriced.
Me personally. I will sell my gold and silver and buy a real estate property when:::: A median single family home, is worth 40.oz of gold, and/or 500.oz of silver.
As of the 4th quarter in 2010, the median value of a single family home in the United States was $170,000. At that price, gold would have to be $4,250.oz, and silver would have to be $340.oz
In order for 500 ounces of silver and 40 ounces of gold to equal the median value of a single family home, prices of gold/silver has to keep rising, AND the median value of a single family home has to continue to fall.
Once metals raise enough, and home prices fall enough, then that mark will mean metals are at nearly their maximum possible value, and real estate are nearly at their maximum lowest value.
The goal of doing that is to trade metals, for cash flow properties that you hold onto forever to collect the rents, and never sell the properties. At the time properties become over valued again, and metals are worth nothing, you would refinance your properties, and buy gold/silver, and hold onto those until the median value of a single family home equaled 40.oz of gold and 500.oz silver. And repeat the process.
Mind you that only happens about every 50 years ish. We're at that point where properties just became extremely over valued, and are falling, and they will keep falling for a long time. And all the estimates out there predict houses will keep falling in value for years to come. And as long as fractional reserve banking exists, and the fed prints money and keeps interest rates low, then metals will continue to rise in value.
____________
Hypothetical Scenario
Even if the government "confiscates" everyone's metal and makes it illegal to own, as long as you are actually reimbursed to the full value of your metal, you simply buy another asset very much like it, and keep your original plan. You will always be able to get palladium, copper, nickle, oil, corn, land, water, rubber, steel, etc... You will have to change the calculation, but the same plan will work.
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Posted: Fri Jun 24, 2011 8:57 pm
Rob the Crowing
I don't know anything about bullion, but I do wanna invest in gold after I actually get a good sum of money so I'm hoping to learn about it.
while it is clever to buy more while prices are low, and sell while prices are high, I recommend adhering to the first page advice, namely, buying a number per month you are comfortable with, and when the price drops, try to maintain your monthly expenditure. If you are looking to make a quick buck, I recommend selling during the next high period, which should come shortly after Summer, however, I caution our economy is at an instability level unmatched in several decades - some would compare it to the 1930s, and for this reason, metals might end up paying off even more if you hold on to them, because we might end up seeing a rise that outmatches any dips, once you account for sales tax and fees. For example, if I buy a coin, I have to pay state tax, plus a surcharge of a couple of bucks, plus gas to get to the dealer. Selling on the internet is similar, with shipping and handling, Ebay fees, and insurance. When you factor in most dealers buy at discount without thinking about taxes or surcharges, you realize the metal is only going to retain 70-80% the market value on a good day. For that reason, you want your sale price to be at least 100% higher than your initial purchase price. It may serve you to keep track of how much you actually paid for your bullion when you bought it, the date of when you bought it, and the actual market price at the time. Be aware of how much you paid for transportation, admission fees to any dealer show, cost of taxes, surcharges, etc. That will tell you how much you need to really beat for it to be profitable. When I first looked at gold, it was around $300 an ounce, but minimum wage was also much lower. Clearly even with markups, transport, and taxes, gold has gone up enough to be profitable twice over. Silver is more crazy, and only a few years ago was $5. For that reason, silver has a lot more to gain for at least a couple of years to catch up to gold's level of stability, which will also fade soon.
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Posted: Sun Jun 26, 2011 9:49 am
This is probably the most interesting thread I've seen in this guild.
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Posted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 8:04 am
how low will WSJ stoop to convince investors to stay loyal to worthless bonds in an upcoming QE3/default economy? Try bold faced lies: WSJ If, for instance, you buy gold, you lower the risk that a collapsing dollar will crush your wealth. But you incur other hazards by paying all-time-high prices for an asset that generates no investment income, lacks intrinsic value and has a weak record of combating inflation. definition of intrinsic value , intrinsic value is the value of the metal, typically a precious metal, in a coin. For example, if gold trades in commercial markets at a price of FRN 450 per fine troy ounce ($14FRN/g), a coin minted from one troy ounce of fine gold would have an intrinsic value equal to that of 450 FRN.
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Posted: Sat Sep 03, 2011 10:13 pm
as many of you may have noticed, Gold is around 1880 and rising (as of the beginning of September 2011) and Silver is playing a Cat and mouse game with Oil and Gold. One of the billionaire boys club members recently noted there's an 85% correlation between gold and silver. I'd like to point out that the number of goods using silver for manufacturing is increasing beyond the mining capacity, which means silver will rise in the long term even without inflation.
I did some checking with the Yen, Euro, and British Pound and concluded the Yen is at least as stable as the Euro with respect to bullion, but compared to the Dollar, the Yen is an excellent hedge against inflation. As a matter of fact, a 500 yen coin is worth about $6.50 and that value is up about 11% in one year. Meanwhile, a silver quarter is worth about $7.80. That means there's an active currency out there that pretty much acts with the same stability (vs. global inflation) as a precious metal.
I would like to advise against two aspects of investing:
1. stay away from online bullion orders if you can, they charge the prices you wont see for months, even years. Now this advice is nullified if online or mail order programs are your only access, such as living in a rural area.
2, always stay away from paper bullion. this is where you pay money for a piece of paper that says you have gold or silver. These pieces of paper are only useful for as long as the company isn't hacked, nationalized, or bankrupt. In other words, it's a terrible idea and you are better off paying the premiums to online dealers with shipping and handling fees.
The thing about online dealers is the numismatic value, by keeping them in their plastic container. Don't show them off during controversial political times, show them off during stable economies, or not at all.
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Posted: Sat Sep 03, 2011 10:56 pm
.... not exactly....
1. www.GainesvilleCoins.com
That's where I shop for bullion online and they are the second best dealer. The best company has a different method of payment which is impractical unless you want to turn it into a home business to get the true discount value. Gainsville sells at just a couple dollars over spot depending on what piece you buy.
Dealers, online or not, make their money off the spread between the buy and sell prices. If the spot price is $100, ANY dealer, online, or local coin shop will buy a coin for $95 from the seller, and sell it to you for $105.... So it doesn't matter if you buy online or offline. What matters is who is giving you a fair price for what you buy and sell to them.
Even if you bypass the dealer, and you buy and sell a $100 coin between you and the other person who wants it, If you are buying, you want to pay $95, and if you are selling, you want to sell it for $105... So you can buy and sell and save a few dollars without a broker, but you're going to be wasting a lot of time bidding back and forth.
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2. What you mean by paper bullion is a "Gold Receipt" or "Silver Receipt"... Also called a (metal) certificate.
There are two points to make about these.....
1. If you do not have any direct claim to the metal, then no you do not want to substitute a metal for a certificate. Because if the vault doesn't have enough metal to honor the certificate, then you are screwed. This is just like owning a stock of a company that goes bankrupt. Once it dies, you are not entitled to anything.
2. If the certificate is a certificate of ownership of your metal a company stores for you in a vault, then that certificate is as good as gold because it is YOUR gold the company cannot touch, sell, lend, etc.... For example. If a bank accepts deposits of metal into your bank account as they would with any other USD coin... If you put in a $100 coin, you will have a $100 certificate that is basically your checkbook against that gold coin(s). Now I'm ignoring fractional reserve lending standards here. But ignoring that, this is a very valid use of a certificate as it is your property under your control. As is the title and deed of your home, land, car, etc... It is a certificate of ownership. If a holding company did something with your asset, you, as the holder of the certificate, are entitled to sue them in criminal court for compensation, penalties, and damages, on top of having them pay for your legal fees. Where as with the first example, you are SOL
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And what do you mean by numismatic value? Numismatic coins are not pure.... All the change in your pocket are numismatic coins with a mixed content of metals of various sorts. Pure investment grade bullion is AT LEAST .999 Fine... I personally buy Canadian Maple Leafs (from Gainsville) which are .9999 Fine because the Canadian mints are much more reputable than most any other nation. That means the premium over spot price is going to be higher, but it also means I have more gold/silver per coin than someone who buys a .999 Silver/Gold Eagle.
I don't mind scanning in the receipt of my purchase from Gainsville. I bought 25 ounces of silver from them, including a 5.oz Silver Taku, which is about as big a round as the lid on a pickle jar.
Since I'm a truck driver. Anytime I go down to Gainesville Florida, I'll pick up my orders in person so I don't have to pay any shipping costs to get them in Los Angeles, CA. So that minimizes the costs. And the shipping costs are what really affect the overall costs vs buying at a local coin dealer. But a local dealer might not have 40 ounces of silver to buy all at once or 5.oz silver Takus which are a great buy because they sell at a discount due to their odd size and low popularity. But that's where you have to figure if you are buying the metal, or if you are buying the investment. If you want an investment, eagles are the way to go. If you want the metal, Taku's and Maple Leafs are the way to go.
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Posted: Mon Sep 12, 2011 10:03 am
"Numismatic coins are not pure" is unfortunately false. There are plenty of .999+ Numismatic coins that have a price insanely higher than melt value, even though their melt value is relatively high. Canada produces something like a .999999+ that costs much more than the .9999, by more than 100% markup, rated 70 or otherwise. Thing is, when you are dealing with some sort of Red Dawn post apocalyptic scenario, .9999999999999 = .999, because all of it gets melted and turned into bars and materials or is traded as currency. In other words, numismatic coins are practically worthless compared to the overhead people charge. The problem with a gold or silver receipt is the fact that the "metal" isn't metal in your possession. When governments nationalize metal, those corporations are the first to experience what Gibson did recently. That's not to say Gibson deals in bullion, but to demonstrate the government takes precious resources on technicalities when it feels it wants something badly enough, and far more efficient than knocking on every door is knocking down the doors of corporations - the policing costs are much lower and the W00t is much higher. For those of you who are still confused, let me make it literal: it is cheaper and easier for a government to send 30 police officers in body armor (480 bucks) with assault rifles (900 bucks) to a business to steal a few thousand pounds of bullion (millions of dollars), than it is to send 6 cops to every home searching for a few ounce (thousands of dollars). That's why your money isn't safe if it's paper. Even some stocks are safer than paper bullion because the companies tend to be bigger and have better lawyers, but small business stocks are about the same, if not worse. There are plenty of examples of governments confiscating bullion, but only a few examples of them doing it door to door. In National City, trading in gold has become extremely difficult in some ways. http://www.10news.com/news/29112802/detail.html--- speaking of stupid currency choices, I recently picked up some gold for the first time since I was a tiny tot. It was the absolute smallest unit I could purchase because I've always been wary of gold (not to mention silver was a shooting star in comparison these last 12 months), and I figured since the dealers didn't have a dragunov I might as well get something besides a philly cheese steak. Naturally, after I made my purchase - as tends to be the case - the value of gold dropped 43 bucks. Thankfully, I went through a dealer I'm acquainted with, so we paid only 75 cents more than Apmex's listed buy price. but if I didn't get that philly steak, I'd have to count in the cost of gas, the cost of admissions to the grounds, and who knows what else. Which brings me back to the trucker scenario. If I was a trucker, I could probably write off the transportation expenses entirely, which is what SZ is probably doing - to their benefit. I got into gold because I foresee dramatic increases after a fake bubble burst, but I'm curious to know what the genuine gold bugs think. See, I work in optics, so silver as a mirror and as a heat sink and as an electrical conductor is always useful, but I'm not sure what gold is good for, mainly because I've forgotten...
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Posted: Mon Sep 12, 2011 2:19 pm
Rob the Crowing
I don't know anything about bullion, but I do wanna invest in gold after I actually get a good sum of money so I'm hoping to learn about it.
Don't. Right now, the price of gold is going up in value the same way the stocks did in 1929 and the way houses did in 2008. To put it in very simple terms if you invest in gold, then you will pay a lot and then the gold market will crash and gold will be worthless. To be honest, people talk about the gold standard as if gold stays up in value. It's not true. Gold is a metal and since it's a metal, its value is determined by the British (London Metal exchange). If the demand for gold drops from a very likely event such as being too expensive to buy, then the value will drop. If you think that gold standard is the best idea, then understand this. Gold was the standard when the markets fell during the depression. There was a reason why we abandoned it.
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