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Posted: Wed Oct 06, 2010 10:12 pm
I thought of this plan at, like, 5 in the morning, so forgive me if it seems harsh. Let me break it down.
We know that Ton, Amber, and Maru are working together. It's obvious. What we don't know is if they are the mafians, or are honest roleclaiming townies fighting the good fight to find the mafia. I think Allegro said that there are three mafians. If that's true then, with a total of nine players, we have a 1 in 3 chance of killing a mafia member. That's pretty high.
But hold on a moment. Let's say that they are actually townies. If we lynch Ton, then we're down one Cop. That's not good. If we lynch Amber, then we're down a vigilante. That's REALLY not good. If we lynch Maru, we lose a vanilla townie and that's not good either.............but it's better than the alternatives.
Maru is one of two things. Either she's a vanilla townie or she's a mafia member. There should be 2 vanillas and 3 mafians. Meaning, she has a 63.33% chance of turning up mafian. That's really high. And remember that she's definitely working with Ton and Amber. If one of them's a mafia member, the other two are. 3 out of 3 is 100%. That's as high as it gets.
My plan is to lynch Maru. If she's mafia, we'll win this by the end of day three. If she's a vanilla townie, we've minimized our loses and, more importantly, it proves that Ton and Amber are absolutely innocent. That's really big. I know I'm not the only one that doesn't trust them, and I personally need to know if I'm right about this or not. I can't even dream of other leads until I eliminate them as possibilities. And if I'm right, the risk is infinitely worth the cause.
I'm not going to vote yet. This makes sense to me, but I'd like to know that it makes sense to everyone else. >< I also want to gage reactions before I take some actions. That rhymed. Opinion time...d.
I told you you wouldn't like it, Maru... sad Sorry. Please understand that I'm just trying to create trust and find the mafia. You're the least valuable loss to the townies while being the most valuable target. Please understand.
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Posted: Wed Oct 06, 2010 10:16 pm
badtzmaru sora4126 Yeah, go for it. I got nothing to hide... except I don't trust anyone anymore! ninja Anyway, yeah, go for it. surprised I didn't expect that. I trust you a bit more now. Hobo, do you want us to investigate you or Sora? ninja Oops, I didn't see this. If Ton really is the Cop, I don't mind if I'm investigated. I mean, if Ton suspects me I'm fine with that. A lot of people(lol you) have been pointing fingers at me after all. If he suspects someone else that's fine too. But the cop is really the only person that should be making that decision. You shouldn't put so much pressure on him. :/
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Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 3:40 am
But I can't investigate anyone until next day D:<
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Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 6:20 am
Well... I can't help but feel this is just the mafia's way of getting rid of 2 townies in 1 day, but if it'll make you guys (most importantly, the doctor) trust Ton, then fine. But, I don't wanna get lynched and then you guys make up another theory about Ton being the mafia. scream If you guys do, I'll haunt you from the grave. @_@ Hobo Scruffy We know that Ton, Amber, and Maru are working together. It's obvious. This is not true--only Ton and I are working together. I don't know if Amber is telling the truth, I just believe her. Hobo Scruffy But the cop is really the only person that should be making that decision. You shouldn't put so much pressure on him. :/ I asked Ton first if he was okay with this idea, and he said he doesn't mind investigating anyone which is why I seem to be 'telling' him who to investigate. Sorry if I put pressure on you, Ton. But if he's telling the truth, he shouldn't have any pressure. confused Tonberry Crunch But I can't investigate anyone until next day D:< Just put your faith in the doctor to make the right decision. xd
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Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 7:53 am
If you guys need someone to investigate you may investigate me if you want i don't mind, I have nothing to hide.
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Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 9:29 am
Hobo Scruffy
And remember that she's definitely working with Ton and Amber. If one of them's a mafia member, the other two are. 3 out of 3 is 100%. Flawed. What if, say, Maru was nilla, but Ton was a fake cop? Or Amber was a Fake vig but Ton and Maru were innocent?
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Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 9:32 am
Also, let's point out that if Ton IS the Cop, he's still useless to us, cause the Mafia (probably) has a role-blocker.
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Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 10:11 am
I'm not sure if this is such a good idea, Hobo... It's too risky for my taste... And Allegro is most likely right about the roleblocker. I totally forgot there was one... sweatdrop
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Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 11:58 am
Vote count?
It's nice when you have time to think, huh.
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Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 12:08 pm
Lady Psycho Sexy Vote count?
It's nice when you have time to think, huh. It's nice, although we're going to end up with a month-long day at this rate. xd Tonberry Crunch Doesn't the day end when we cast enough votes? If so, then I vote No Lynch. No targets pretty much. I think that's the only vote that hasn't been withdrawn. You should probably change that, Ton.
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Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 12:32 pm
Tonberry Crunch Zephyrkitty badtzmaru Plus... He's the other person Ton investigated. >_<;; Cop can only investigate one person a day. Based on what you and Ton have said, Ton investigated you on Day 1 and Allegro on Day 2. That means he can't investigate anyone else until we get to Day 3. I've been saying that D:< The question about whether or not there had already been a Day 2 investigation came up twice and we never got an answer either time. Between that and your focus on finding a target ASAP, it had sounded like you and Maru were looking for a Day 2 target, not a Day 3 one. stressed Hobo Scruffy Maru is one of two things. Either she's a vanilla townie or she's a mafia member. There should be 2 vanillas and 3 mafians. Meaning, she has a 63.33% chance of turning up mafian. That's really high. And remember that she's definitely working with Ton and Amber. If one of them's a mafia member, the other two are. 3 out of 3 is 100%. That's as high as it gets. Kath was vanilla, so there should be only one vanilla left (1 cop + 1 vig + 1 doctor + 2 friends + 1 vanilla = 6 Townies). I'm going to argue the Ton/Maru/Amber alliance. Ton and Maru are working together, they've told us that much several times. However, Amber came in later and both sides have said something to the effect of 'I think the other person is telling the truth', but they don't seem to be working with each other. Maru being confirmed vanilla would all but confirm Ton's innocence, but I don't think it would do that much for Amber. That said, I'd say Amber will be proven innocent or guilty by whether or not she survives to Day 3. If she's a fake Vigilante, the real Vigilante will target her tonight since the roleclaim all but confirms that she's Mafia. Mafia also doesn't know the real Vigilante's identity in that case, so it'd be nearly impossible to roleblock them.
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Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 12:38 pm
Fine, fine. I withdraw my vote for No Lynch.
I just want this day to end... stressed
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Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 12:52 pm
Did Bari actually do something, or contact one of you?
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Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 2:12 pm
Weasel-chan Did Bari actually do something, or contact one of you? I PMed her yesterday about the inactivity and she apologized and said she'd try to be more active. She never posted anything here. stressed That said, she mentioned a while ago that she'd be gone all day Thursday. It doesn't explain her absence for the rest of the days, but she has a reason for today.
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Posted: Thu Oct 07, 2010 2:14 pm
No, Bari hasn't contacted me. Weasel-chan And Allegro is most likely right about the roleblocker. I totally forgot there was one... sweatdrop Oh man, I totally forgot about the role-blocker, too. eek ;; The role-blocker will probably block Ton's role tomorrow, so I guess my plan fails, too. gonk Dang it, I dunno what to do anymore... Zephyrkitty The question about whether or not there had already been a Day 2 investigation came up twice and we never got an answer either time. Between that and your focus on finding a target ASAP, it had sounded like you and Maru were looking for a Day 2 target, not a Day 3 one. stressed Sorry for not being clear. sweatdrop
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