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view markets as currently in limbo, meaning I am unsure whether we are about to enter a bear market or resume a bull market. The one thing I am confident in is that we will see a rally likely this week. Whether that rally continues depends on a compromise between the US and China, which I think is unlikely at this point in time. NFLX’s strong earnings should provide some fuel for the relief rally, but without the major macro problem being addressed, I don’t expect any sustained rallies. If GOOGL and TSLA come in unexpectedly strong, I expect NQ futures to hit around 19.7k before the next leg lower in a bear market.

Macro events: LEI, Inflation Exp.
Earnings: GOOG, TSLA, BSX, NOW

Bull:
NFLX- I expect the strong earnings to be faded a little bit as investors use this opportunity to derisk while trade tensions remain unresolved. I still believe NFLX is the best stock to own during the trade war.

QQQ- Likely going to see a short term rally due to NFLX. Strong earnings from GOOGL should provide fuel for a relief rally to around 485. I expect rallies to be limited from there until macro clears.

GLD- Gold should be a source of liquidity for a relief rally, but I expect dips to be bought as investors look to re-enter due to macro uncertainty. Tariff pause until July supports a GLD put. I prefer call diagonals or BPS to not rely too much on further upside momentum, though I strongly believe GLD will continue making ATHs this year.

Neutral:
GOOGL- The valuation is extremely low now, so I see limited downside for poor earnings and would prefer to stay away from betting directionally. A long dated bull put spread is acceptable, though I would go out at least to Jan 2026. Data center buildout should have significantly increased costs (aluminum, steel), directly impacting AI investment and Google Cloud margins.

NOW- Not going to trade this personally, but an important bellwether for AI data center capex. In max capex uncertainty, are firms still investing into AI at previous paces? This context will be important for the hyperscalers and NVDA.

Bear: BSX- Tariffs should hurt BSX pretty bad. Guidance will likely be poor due to significantly increased costs since BSX relies so heavily on global supply chains. Fixed-price contracts with hospitals will force BSX to eat the increased costs. Likely worth a put diagonal or bear put spread for earnings.

TSLA- I don’t know what to say here. Valuation makes very little sense to me, tariffs are going to screw TSLA’s costs over (manufacturing happens in US, but relies heavily on imported minerals). Elon Musk has ruined consumer sentiment towards his company and it will likely hit guidance hard. TSLA is a very obvious short to me on paper, but Musk is great at smooth talking analysts into ignoring the cracks in his company. I prefer a longer dated bear put spread (90 days) here to give more time for my bear thesis to play out, and keep position size extra small since Musk adds in extra unpredictability.

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view markets as currently in limbo, meaning I am unsure whether we are about to enter a bear market or resume a bull market. The one thing I am confident in is that we will see a rally likely this week. Whether that rally continues depends on a compromise between the US and China, which I think is unlikely at this point in time. NFLX’s strong earnings should provide some fuel for the relief rally, but without the major macro problem being addressed, I don’t expect any sustained rallies. If GOOGL and TSLA come in unexpectedly strong, I expect NQ futures to hit around 19.7k before the next leg lower in a bear market.

Macro events: LEI, Inflation Exp.
Earnings: GOOG, TSLA, BSX, NOW

Bull:
NFLX- I expect the strong earnings to be faded a little bit as investors use this opportunity to derisk while trade tensions remain unresolved. I still believe NFLX is the best stock to own during the trade war.

QQQ- Likely going to see a short term rally due to NFLX. Strong earnings from GOOGL should provide fuel for a relief rally to around 485. I expect rallies to be limited from there until macro clears.

GLD- Gold should be a source of liquidity for a relief rally, but I expect dips to be bought as investors look to re-enter due to macro uncertainty. Tariff pause until July supports a GLD put. I prefer call diagonals or BPS to not rely too much on further upside momentum, though I strongly believe GLD will continue making ATHs this year.

Neutral:
GOOGL- The valuation is extremely low now, so I see limited downside for poor earnings and would prefer to stay away from betting directionally. A long dated bull put spread is acceptable, though I would go out at least to Jan 2026. Data center buildout should have significantly increased costs (aluminum, steel), directly impacting AI investment and Google Cloud margins.

NOW- Not going to trade this personally, but an important bellwether for AI data center capex. In max capex uncertainty, are firms still investing into AI at previous paces? This context will be important for the hyperscalers and NVDA.

Bear: BSX- Tariffs should hurt BSX pretty bad. Guidance will likely be poor due to significantly increased costs since BSX relies so heavily on global supply chains. Fixed-price contracts with hospitals will force BSX to eat the increased costs. Likely worth a put diagonal or bear put spread for earnings.

TSLA- I don’t know what to say here. Valuation makes very little sense to me, tariffs are going to screw TSLA’s costs over (manufacturing happens in US, but relies heavily on imported minerals). Elon Musk has ruined consumer sentiment towards his company and it will likely hit guidance hard. TSLA is a very obvious short to me on paper, but Musk is great at smooth talking analysts into ignoring the cracks in his company. I prefer a longer dated bear put spread (90 days) here to give more time for my bear thesis to play out, and keep position size extra small since Musk adds in extra unpredictability.

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