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For four years, the enthusiastically pro-American enclave of Kurdistan in northern Iraq has been portrayed as the one shining beacon of hope in the sinister chaos of Iraq. But that bright beacon now threatens to set off a regional fire that could wreck NATO's southern flank.

Bush administration policymakers and their US media cheering section held out the Kurdish enclave as proof that - with a vastly disproportionate US investment in money, diplomacy, and "nation-building" - a stable, pro-American democracy could be established in the heart of the Middle East, to serve as an example to the surrounding region.

The one issue Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran could usually always agree on was the need to keep their Kurdish minority populations under control. Turkey has 12 million to 16 million Kurds, Iran has 4.8 million to 6.6 million and Syria has 900,000 to 2.8 million. Iraq's Kurdish regions have 4 million to 6 million Kurds.

Even with US support, it appears highly unlikely that the Kurds could maintain their de facto independence if the Shiite majority in Iraq, as well as the Sunnis, turned against them. Turkey and Iran, historic enemies, agree at least on their hostility to Kurdish independence.

White House and Pentagon policymakers have paid the Kurds relatively little attention in recent months. They have been lulled by the steady stream of success stories coming out of Kurdistan. But that dream enclave could turn into a nightmare - and soon.

it would be, syria, Iran, Iraq, and turkey are all against the kurds ruleing there own homeland because they would all lose land from it. but I think they should have there indipendence. plus there one of the few fractions of islam that is freindly towrds the U.S. and our soldiors over in Iraq.

I for one would love to see it, but with all the havoc that's over there, it might be wise to wait a bit.