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Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2011 9:15 pm
For those of you not following the news here's the story.
Wikileaks got a whole bunch of government records and put them out on the internet.
People of Tunisa protest the government, showing that although they may tolerate an oppressive government, they will not tolerate a corrupt one.
Tunisan Government collapses, new government forms, more democratic, we hope.
About a week later, the Egyptians start to protest their government, again about the corruption. High unemployment, high cost of living, police oppression, no public safety, etc etc...
Egypt is now in a full scale revolt, the police cannot stop the protesters, the army has been called out, to enforce curfew, civilians now patrol the streets to prevent looting. Hasni Nubarik had his entire cabinet resign in order to appease the protesters, only to have it backfire. Several political entities from the Muslim Brotherhood who want to impose Sharia Law in Egypt, to the Liberty and Democracy Party of Egypt who want Egypt to be even more Western than it already is, have come out all demanding the end of Nubarik's near 30 year rule as President.
So... what do you think will happen?
Civil War? Islamic Egypt invades Israel? Western Powers interven and start Nation Building again? Or will Nubarik just crack down on his people like the Chinese did in Tiaenamen Square?
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Posted: Sun Jan 30, 2011 5:01 pm
I say at least 1 attempted Kornilov Revolt-styled generals have a go. If they fail, which they likely will, it'll be a slightly more Western government.
Odds are 1/72 at the moment for an assassination. I've put down a quid.
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Posted: Sun Jan 30, 2011 6:11 pm
The army is loved by the egyptian people, it's the police force the people have issue with.
There have been many instances of soldiers either deserting and joining the protests, or disobeying direct orders by ignoring them.
However these instances are of individual solders, once entire units and batallion sized munities occur... then we will see the fall of Nubarik
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