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Rare

With the help of modern math ans simple probability of statistics, I can solve just the exact chance of winning the new RIG, the Crystal Overdrive.

This RIG has 4 levels, and at first glace good chances (90%-> 70%->50%) but will it be true? Only math will tell!

Starting from level one, you have a...

90% chance of getting to level 2 (duh)
63% chance of getting to level 3
And a.... wow, 31.5% chance of getting to a victory.
31.5% chance of getting to the second to final stage, apparently. WHo know what the last chance is.

Victories are unknown now! Buy! And good luck!

Discuss:

These chances
What you won!
from my ecperiance. It is hard to win... opened a bundle... and well made it to the last stage once.

Shameless Cat

why isn't anyone making a list?
D:

Shirtless Strawberry

14,800 Points
  • Survivor 150
  • Pie Scarface 150
  • Partygoer 500
kokoro string
why isn't anyone making a list?
D:

I was thinking the same thing. >3 >

Professional Novice

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What about that big question mark? I thought that was the victory, but it doesn't give odds for that.

Rare

kokoro string
why isn't anyone making a list?
D:


I kind of want to jump at the chance, but I'm afraid I'll mess something up.

Rare

KaylaGalela
User Image
What about that big question mark? I thought that was the victory, but it doesn't give odds for that.


I'm assuming it is. I think in the bitter frost the victory was a large question mark.

Professional Novice

Sir Black Tea
KaylaGalela
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What about that big question mark? I thought that was the victory, but it doesn't give odds for that.


I'm assuming it is. I think in the bitter frost the victory was a large question mark.
User Image
Well, what I mean is does that give you a 31.5% chance of winning or a 31.5% chance of getting a chance to win?

Tricky Shapeshifter

12,800 Points
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  • Object of Affection 150
  • Partygoer 500
Math means nothing when faced with unimaginable bad luck. emo

Man-Hungry Ladykiller

15,300 Points
  • Heckler 50
  • Senpai's Notice 100
  • 50 Wins 150
Blaze the Fire Dragon
Math means nothing when faced with unimaginable bad luck. emo

I quite agree.

Tricky Shapeshifter

12,800 Points
  • Love Machine 150
  • Object of Affection 150
  • Partygoer 500
Nonetheless I want to buy one for that 0.01% chance that I might win that moogle kitten star thing.

Rare

KaylaGalela
Sir Black Tea
KaylaGalela
User Image
What about that big question mark? I thought that was the victory, but it doesn't give odds for that.


I'm assuming it is. I think in the bitter frost the victory was a large question mark.
User Image
Well, what I mean is does that give you a 31.5% chance of winning or a 31.5% chance of getting a chance to win?


If you buy a single and start from level 1, you have a 31.5% chance of getting a victory, to my understanding.

Just basing this off of the page in the MP. I'll try to play some soon.

7,300 Points
  • Megathread 100
  • Clambake 200
  • Mark Twain 100
Made the last stage nearly every time I played 9, but never actually won >.<

9,350 Points
  • Bunny Hoarder 150
  • Conventioneer 300
  • Megathread 100
I one twice from a pack of 9 :T I think if you choose the airship you have to go with Ian, and if you choose Rufus you go to the girl. I always got onto the final stage with those combos. Not necessarily won them all x3.

Kawaii Shounen

27,440 Points
  • Protector of Cuteness 150
  • Lapin Patrol Mimosa: Victory! 50
  • Magical Girl 50
I played 14 and didn't get a final victory from any of them e_e

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