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Platonix

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Post: 80349703_1 created on Tue, 12 Jun 2012 22:06:10 +0000
Posted: Tue, 12 Jun 2012 22:06:10 +0000

The intent of this thread is to determine the chances of getting any given colored Philosopher's Cache (or GoFusion Charm) when you open the original Cache. If you've opened a large number of original Caches lately, let us know what mix you got! The more data we collect the closer we'll come to the actual percentages.
Remember, if you want to give me data, please don't just tell me how many zOMG Caches you got, or just how many Heart Charms; I need to know all of the numbers to be able to use them.

Here's the data from opening a total of 16,081 base Philosopher's Caches:
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2272 zOMG
2259 Aquamarine
2147 Emerald
1816 Sapphire
1608 Amethyst
1396 Garnet
1142 Ruby
1005 Topaz
0829 Gold
0798 Diamond
0436 Platinum
0373 Heart Charms

The pie charts below are Partial Pies showing roughly the last 2,000 and 5,000 Caches opened, so we can see any changing trends on the data. Today they both agree with the full pie chart above in confirming the change bluealaris made last month to the drop rate of Gold Caches: Golds are now more common than Diamonds, which is why I've gone ahead and switched the positions of the two in the list above and in all pie charts. The 5,000 chart also agrees with the full chart in showing zOMG Caches as more common than Aquamarines; the 2,000 chart does not show this, but since zOMGs overtook Aquas in the full chart I've decided to officially switch their positions as well.

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Can't get enough of gathering probability data? Check out these other threads!

Opening the Alchemist's Case: Probabilities
A thread that does for the Alchemist's Case what this one does for the base Philosopher's Cache.
What Are The Odds? (Collating Crafting Chances)
Check out this thread if you want to know how many times you're likely to fail when crafting a formula!

Knave of I-Iearts

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Post: 80349703_2 created on Tue, 12 Jun 2012 22:38:52 +0000
Posted: Tue, 12 Jun 2012 22:38:52 +0000

These were the ones I have crafted and opened on my own.
*These are taken from my journal, which is updated often*

#1 - Gold
#2 - Amethyst
#3 - Diamond
#4 - Aquamarine
#5 - Amethyst
#6 - Diamond
#7 - Topaz
#8 - Garnet
#9 - Topaz
#10 - Garnet
#11 - Aquamarine
#12 - Aquamarine
#13 - Garnet
#14 - Aquamarine
#15 - Amethyst
#16 - Amethyst
#17 - Gold
#18 - Aquamarine
#19 - Garnet
#20 - Ruby
#21 - Ruby
#22 - Ruby

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Istoleyourtaco

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Post: 80349703_3 created on Tue, 12 Jun 2012 22:44:47 +0000
Posted: Tue, 12 Jun 2012 22:44:47 +0000

Platonix

The intent of this thread is to determine the chances of getting any given colored Philosopher's Cache when you open the original Cache. If you've opened a large number of original Caches lately, let us know what mix of colored bags you got! The more data we collect the closer we'll come to the actual percentages.

Having started this work in another thread, we've already come fairly far. Here's the data from opening a total of 833 base Philosopher's Caches:

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171 Aquamarine
126 Emerald
111 Amethyst
107 Sapphire
88 Garnet
69 Topaz
67 Ruby
39 Diamond
34 Gold
21 Platinum
Last updated 6/12/12 Constipated did a thread like this and his was basically the same just a few differances but close to this . So I guess it is part luck and part quantity .

Let's see if we can gather enough data to get that poor little Platinum bar past the lip of the bag! xd

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Post: 80349703_4 created on Tue, 12 Jun 2012 22:53:37 +0000
Posted: Tue, 12 Jun 2012 22:53:37 +0000

Zzyli - Zzy as in Xylophone, Li as in leaf

This is what I've currently pulled (I have a full list in my journal so I can edit at leisure).

Aquamarine 4
Emerald 1
Amethyst 3
Sapphire 1
Garnet 1
Topaz
Ruby 1
Diamond
Gold
Platinum

Accentuate the positive and eliminate the negative...

Lei_Trigar

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Post: 80349703_5 created on Tue, 12 Jun 2012 22:59:34 +0000
Posted: Tue, 12 Jun 2012 22:59:34 +0000

*reserving, will update this post as well*

heaven x ace

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Post: 80349703_6 created on Wed, 13 Jun 2012 01:00:39 +0000
Posted: Wed, 13 Jun 2012 01:00:39 +0000

†•╬══•↬꿈길을 걷는다 ღ
emotion_bigheart when i opened 5 i received two aquas
1 emerald
1 diamond
and 1 platinum c:
im very impatient and i hate having to collect all the trash

Platonix

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Post: 80349703_7 created on Wed, 13 Jun 2012 01:21:09 +0000
Posted: Wed, 13 Jun 2012 01:21:09 +0000

Lovable Marionette

#1 - Gold
#2 - Amethyst
#3 - Diamond
#4 - Aquamarine
#5 - Amethyst
#6 - Diamond
#7 - Topaz
#8 - Garnet
#9 - Topaz
#10 - Garnet
#11 - Aquamarine
#12 - Aquamarine
#13 - Garnet
#14 - Aquamarine
#15 - Amethyst
#16 - Amethyst
#17 - Gold
#18 - Aquamarine
#19 - Garnet
#20 - Ruby
#21 - Ruby
#22 - Ruby

Zzyli

Aquamarine 4
Emerald 1
Amethyst 3
Sapphire 1
Garnet 1
Ruby 1

heaven x ace

two aquas
1 emerald
1 diamond
and 1 platinum c:

I've added these into the figures and graph in the first post. (Zzyli, I assume colors that don't have a number next to them are ones you haven't gotten any of yet, since you do have the number 1 next to others?)

Istoleyourtaco

Constipated did a thread like this and his was basically the same just a few differances but close to this . So I guess it is part luck and part quantity .

Yeah, his thread is actually the thread I mentioned this work starting in. CT contacted me and said I ought to make a new thread because he probably wasn't going to be updating the opening post of that thread any further.

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Post: 80349703_8 created on Wed, 13 Jun 2012 01:23:53 +0000
Posted: Wed, 13 Jun 2012 01:23:53 +0000

Platonix

Yes, that is correct. Possibly I should swap over to a tally system, or a list system or something. This was more for my personal curiosity.

Constipated Trillionaire

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Post: 80349703_9 created on Wed, 13 Jun 2012 08:11:47 +0000
Posted: Wed, 13 Jun 2012 08:11:47 +0000

emotion_brofist

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Post: 80349703_10 created on Wed, 13 Jun 2012 09:06:45 +0000
Posted: Wed, 13 Jun 2012 09:06:45 +0000

I've made 2 large batches so far, and this is what I've got.
First batch:
1 Platinum
4 Gold
3 Diamond
8 Topaz
7 Garnet
7 Amethyst
7 Emerald
5 Sapphire
8 Ruby
10 Aquamarine

Second batch:
Platinum - 3
Gold - 2
Diamond - 2
Topaz - 6
Garnet - 4
Ruby - 4
Emerald - 7
Sapphire - 6
Aquamarine - 13
Amethyst - 13

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Post: 80349703_11 created on Thu, 14 Jun 2012 00:07:35 +0000
Posted: Thu, 14 Jun 2012 00:07:35 +0000

Just opened 7. Results:

3 aquamarine
2 emerald
1 garnet
1 topaz

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Post: 80349703_12 created on Thu, 14 Jun 2012 04:21:14 +0000
Posted: Thu, 14 Jun 2012 04:21:14 +0000

Otp

First batch:
1 Platinum
4 Gold
3 Diamond
8 Topaz
7 Garnet
7 Amethyst
7 Emerald
5 Sapphire
8 Ruby
10 Aquamarine

Second batch:
Platinum - 3
Gold - 2
Diamond - 2
Topaz - 6
Garnet - 4
Ruby - 4
Emerald - 7
Sapphire - 6
Aquamarine - 13
Amethyst - 13

jadedrenee

3 aquamarine
2 emerald
1 garnet
1 topaz

Added in. Good work, folks!