The disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 has prompted Chinese citizens to pressure their government to react harshly to Malaysia's perceived incompetence. Purtrajaya's lack of transparency on the subject, and Beijing's sensitivity to domestic populism, have fueled the angry rhetoric Chinese officials have directed toward their Malaysian counterparts. Yet, in spite of the bilateral tension created by MH370, China is likely to remain cautious about taking actions that could jeopardize its partnership with Malaysia, given the country's importance in the region's geopolitical landscape and its warming relations with Washington.
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Within the context of the China-Malaysia-U.S. triangular relationship, Beijing's reaction to MH370 will remain measured. Chinese diplomats have assured their Malaysian counterparts that the voices in China calling for an end to the alliance are not representative of the government's official view. So while Flight 370's disappearance has stressed the China-Malaysia relationship, China will neither impose sanctions on, nor sever ties with, Malaysia given the economic and geopolitical interests at stake. The fact that even the Chinese press has begun to soften its tone toward Malaysia's government reflects the view that China is better off swallowing a tough pill than taking any actions that could provide the U.S. with a major strategic advantage at Beijing's expense.
Knowing where its bread is buttered, Malaysia has made a conscious decision to embrace China while hedging its bets by simultaneously extending a hand further to the U.S., not wanting to swim completely against the tide. But the Malaysian government must be careful not to be perceived as being too enthusiastic about an alliance with Washington. Many in Malaysia remain deeply suspicious of the U.S. and its intentions. So much so that the details of the defense relationship between the two countries under the 1984 Bilateral Training and Consultative Group Agreement have never been made public. The emerging relationship with the U.S. is new, and its limits have yet to be tested. Malaysia has the luxury of being able to straddle the fence, as both of its suitors will continue to court it indefinitely.
Daniel Wagner is CEO of Country Risk Solutions, Senior Advisor with Gnarus Advisors, and author of the book Managing Country Risk. Giorgio Cafiero is a research analyst with CRS in Washington.
A version of this article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/daniel-wagner/why-mh370-will-not-change_b_5354067.html
