Old Blue Collar Joe
You mean that SORTIE where, unlike Bush, who had congressional approval, he went in on his own accord, ******** procedure?
It was done really subtle like. For starters it wasn't a war, it didn't need congress. And by "not a war" it really wasn't. Wasn't ours anyway.
There was the NATO aspect. Followed by the fact that the war was fought by Libya against Libya. The actual battles and all that was all Libyan rebels. The NATO involvement was more a matter of neutering Gaddafi's capability to carry out massacres and so forth. It squared down the military imbalance by eliminating the air force, navy, and damaging tanks and so forth. Once it was a fair fight it was a matter of Gaddafi either making concessions....or being Gaddafi and fighting to the death. He chose the latter and pretty much every step of the war revealed nobody gave a s**t about him and supported the rebels (the liberation of Tripoli was a hilarious poke in the eye to the stock anti-western Chavez types who claimed Gaddafi had popular support).
Also we've gained an Arab country that looks fondly on us, next to the moderate climate of Tunisia that's a two fer two beachhead as it were in the long run.
Oh and it was all done on the cheap for us, we didn't even lose any lives. The only NATO life lost was a british guy. And that was a car crash in Italy.
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And how stable is Libya now?
Libya is doing pretty good really. The elections went extremely well, liberal party got voted in even which is a nice cherry on the sundae.
The militias are still being roped in and causing s**t occasionally but nothing organized or directed at causing the state to collapse, mostly they fight each-other and not even fatally.
It's more like West Side Story than it is Iraq 2005. Half these kids would probably also freak out if their respective Riffs actually got stabbed.
The oil infrastructure is up and running which is pretty much the key to stability once money starts coming in.
The last thing my buddy said about stuff over there was a comment about dudes standing around the street talking about hidden caches of gold left behind by Gaddafi. Not stuff like KILLING THE BERBER SWINE or whatever was common discussion in Iraq. Oh and bragging about what they did (didn't) do during the war.
Oh yeah there's problems, but that was expected. Nothing that's really hampering average life. Their democracy is looking good, the economy was always well positioned. The government and militia issue is what's still around.
But there's not much need to worry when the actual scare of eastern separatism turned out to be a paper tiger once they saw the election results didn't agree with them.
Have a read.
Or two.
What you have to keep in mind about Libya is it has a very small population, it's religiously homogenous, only the Berbers are a real minority of size there and unlike Syria where the Alawites are regime loyalists? The Berbers were among the fiercest anti-Gaddafi fighters putting them well into line with the Arab majority.
Small simple population + oil oil oil. Even under Gaddafi Libya had a pretty darn nice standard of living considering the neighborhood, even with the massive embezzlement that was going on from the b*****d and his family. All this equals a very easy future economically per person and all that. They're also geographically well positioned like Tunisia to get further involved with the West (unlike say Yemen), I honestly wouldn't be terribly surprised if they joined NATO at some point before 2050.
They're fed up and sick of pugnacious idealists, so they aren't likely to vote in big mouthed wild eyed wierdos like Egypt is. There was a thirst before the revolution for really joining the world (Gaddafi's second son was also part of this before things set off), so they are probably thrilled for peace and boring ahead of them.
PLUS they have the bonus of having liquidated the old regime entirely. Part of Egypt's issues is that the old order is still all over the place (military, the courts). Libya does not have to deal with forces of reaction.
They've made that wonderful transition. From flamboyant god-kings to boring middle aged men in suits.
If we want to start nurturing some stability and moderation in a region known for neither, Tunisia and Libya are the place to start working. This could take awhile, it will need to overcome some damned bad issues. The Palestine problem, Iran's regime, and eventually when Iran ceases to be a problem I have no doubt Saudi Arabia will step in as the crazy man of the region. We have so very little in common with them, only oil and hating Iran tie us together.
But these regions can stabilize, Europe east of France used to be a hotbed, to say nothing of the Balkans. The Balkans have AT LAST calmed down.
This is very long term talk obviously, but that's the chess game of FP.
Also the fact is we are still the team mostly cheering these revolutions, whereas Putin, the Ayatollah, and Beijing are not.
It's not American flags burning in Damascus right now.
Yep. It's our two chief world stage rivals.
Qatar is a country we should make more inroads into if you ask me btw. Considerably moderate, with a government reforming faster than it's people even care about.
Might be a good bolstered alliance to keep for a rainy day when things inevitably start to sour with the Saudis.
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