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Fanatical Zealot

The implications of the Russian invasion of Crimea- The new Cold war

In my other two threads, I talked somewhat in depth about the growing tensions with the government of Russia, and the resistance we've had when dealing with Russian in Syrian waters. Now, Russia seems to be emboldened by political successes at home, banning any propaganda which is does not promote "traditional values"[1][2][3], so vaguely worded that by itself it practically gives their government absolute authority over the country, and by their actions in Syria. After sending warships in an effort to block U.N. and American involvement in Syria [1][2][3], Russia quickly invaded Crimea after the previous prime minister resigned, in a period of weakness for Ukraine, and formally overtook the territory of Crimea. Now claiming to lack involvement in the uprisings in eastern Ukraine, bordering Russia, where numerous "demonstrations" have taken place, NATO and the U.S. have illustrated Russian support for the rebel forces, as well as direct involvement and movement of troops into the territory. [1][2][3]

The implications of this are staggering, as multiple embargos have already been placed on Russia, Europe, and the U.S., with Russia taking it the next step and banning food imports from these country's all together. Rather than act through a proxy, Russia has directly, with it's own troops, invaded the Ukraine, which is an extremely huge step up in military related problems. The U.N. general assembly has voted 100 to 11 to condemn Russia's actions; most everyone agrees that Russia is at fault, but since all actions risk total war, legitimate military resistance has been sparse, largely to try to persuade Russia to stop their actions through diplomatic means, which as of now have all but failed.


Russia initially denied it's involvement in Crimea, sending in military units without insignia or clear methods of identification, nor without announcing it (technically a violation of the geneva convention), but came clean after their military successes in the region, capturing it and placing it under Russian control. They now seem to be stepping up their involvement in Ukraine, and have tried to deny their involvement once again, by up to and including, suggesting that entire Russian military unit's went on vacations for the holiday in the midst of a warzone in Ukraine, naturally bringing all of their Russian issued equipment with them and massacring civilians. With all their guns and equipment and siding with the rebels and mowing down entire cities. The fact that this is an event that is occurring on the world stage boggles my mind. There are no words.

There's plenty of proof of Russia's involvement including satellite data [1][2][3][4], including NATO and the U.S. claiming they're there, plenty of photographic evidence showing soldiers in uniform and with specific weapons, including special forces, and providing equipment (such as tanks) and artillery bombardment [1]. They've mobilized forces under the guise of humanitarian support, which is likely going to destroy their credibility for a long time; particularly important is that they claimed to be delivering the aid with the support of the Red Cross, who did not actually support their actions. [1][2][3][4][5]


The question is, how do we respond to this crisis? Over 200,000 people have died in Syria, and there are over 3 million refugees.

Furthermore, if Russia succeeds in taking over all the areas in Europe it wants it'll violate the will and rights of the people, and lead them under an oppressive and discriminatory government. If we challenge Russia, we may witness major economic problem's, particularly for the average person, if not all out war. In the meantime, Russia continues to arm and back genocidal dictators and generally immoral people around the world, as thousands die from Russian arms sold to the country's for meager profits.


The only thing that keeps war between the U.S. and Russia cold is the presence of the nuclear deterrent, of which seems to be of lesser important in preventing Russia from engaging in conventional warfare. With the illusion of the nuclear deterrent shattered, Russia has taken upon itself to begin invading eastern Europe, barely containing their involvement, just enough to make it appear as if the rest of the world will be making the first move, and has more or less continued to ignore the international community.

I fear this is the start of another cold war, or some significantly worse. With Russian bomber planes flying closer to the U.S. and NATO at any point during the cold war, now weekly, we are closer to an all out nuclear war than the world has ever seen; this may even be the beginning of WWIII.[1][2][3] With an attempt to desensitize the American populace of an incoming Russian attack, these test flights not only allow them to gather data about how to best respond to our defenses, but allow them to get closer to the U.S. without the ability to truly predict if the next wave of aircraft will truly be there for an attack, meaning the nuclear bombing of the U.S. could be just around the corner.

"I know not with what weapons WWIII will be fought with, but WWIV will be fought with sticks and stones"- Albert Einstein.

Fanatical Zealot

Update: Now Russia has invaded the Ukraine
Previously, (see below) I warned about how the growing tensions in Syria could escalate tensions with Russia and eventually lead to a catastrophic war. Rather than act through a proxy, Russia has directly, with it's own troops, invaded the Ukraine, which is an extremely huge step up in military related problems. This is not only horrific and disgusting, but down right shocking that they would be so bold as to to do something like this, and disregard the international community entirely. The U.N. general assembly has voted 100 to 11 to condemn Russia's actions; most everyone agrees that Russia is at fault, but since all actions risk total war, legitimate military resistance has been sparse, largely to try to persuade Russia to stop their actions through diplomatic means, which as of now have all but failed. Sanctions have been placed on Russia, which are only growing.

There are numerous reports of various things happening. Although initially Russia more or less outright allegations that the troops were Russian, they have since changed their position, attempting to justify their attacks. Furthermore, many of the more bloody conflicts supposedly haven't involved Russian troops, although it would be technically impossible to tell since the Russian troops in the area are unmarked, and don't carry identification or insignias. However, for other reasons it's obvious they are Russian troops. Russia, while avoiding bloodshed immediately, has now killed many people, which is likely to only escalate the tensions in the country, and possibly lead to full scale war. This has been building for quite some time, and while seemingly out of the blue, has been, to me, apparently increasing. Some could say that these goes all the way back to the Georgian war, or the poor treatment of Chechnyans (some of which have legitimate ties to Al Qaeda, for instance) but the actions, not the motives were questionable in that particular conflict. I'd personally say that the most obvious movement away from any semblance of moral decency began with the poor treatment of gay people; anyone even speaking out about or creating "propaganda" against "traditional marriage" was to be arrested, which expanded the government's ability to arrest people who who not only homosexual, but very vaguely and ambiguously opposed traditional values as loosely defined by the government. It is illegal to even equate gay people as equal to non gay people, or even oppose the government openly. Literally.

This seemed horrific, but we carried on to the Olympics in Russia, which seemed okay at the time. Then Russia gave the Syrians weapons. S-300's, advanced anti-aircraft weapons, and was sending billions of dollars of weapons to a country which has of now killed over 100,000 of it's own people. After they threatened to launch missiles into Ukraine, the Ukraine began to break ties with Russia and to move over to the EU, with subsequent movements being halted by threats of Russian attacks and economic sanctions, until finally Russia invaded in 2014.


The Beginning: Georgian War (2007)
The U.S. quickly took a stance against Russia's conflict in the war, but rather than provide direct military assistance, tried to avoid provoking war with Russia, and instead provided humanitarian assistance. The EU and most countries have found Russia in violation of many international laws. While intervention Georgia was largely considered justified, the way the Russians handled the situation, including increasing the number of reported civilian casualties to several thousand compared to several hundred and using this as a justification for the massive number of civilian casualties they were responsible for has largely been condemned. Furthermore, despite the war only lasting a very short amount of time, and sending in their elite troops, Russia managed to kill a tremendous amount of civilians. This recklessness and disregard for human life was condemned largely internationally, but little was done since the conflict was so brief and any action against Russia could provoke a major war.

Russian officials initially claimed that up to 2,000 Ossetian civilians were killed by Georgian forces. These high casualty figures, were according to Russia the reason for the military intervention in Georgia. Almost one year after the conflict, Georgia has reported more than 400 deaths in the war. Thomas Hammarberg reported that the estimate the Commissioner received from the Russian authorities on confirmed deaths was 133 people.On the other hand, the false claims of high casualties significantly influenced public sentiment among Ossetians. According to Human Rights Watch, some of the Ossetian residents they interviewed justified the torching and looting of the Georgian villages by referring to "thousands of civilian casualties in South Ossetia" that was reported by Russian federal TV channels. In November 2008, Amnesty International released a 69-page report detailing serious international law violations on the conduct of war by both Georgia and Russia.

In 2010, the U.S. lifted sanctions it has placed on Russia.


LGBT Right's issues (2013)
Russia did something truly bewildering, and severely restricted the rights of LGBT, more specifically homosexual people. Claiming to "protect children", many laws were enacted that used incredibly vague language, generally allowing wide sweeping crackdowns on homosexuals. Facing criticism for it's afront to homosexual, Russia instead changed it's language to focus on any organization opposing or suggesting they were equal with "traditional values", with the subjective interpretation essentially allowing for, and creating crackdowns on numerous minority groups. This included banning propaganda or any public form of displays which could potentially reach children; this has included signs, statements, and even internet websites. It is illegal to even talk about gays in public, as children could overhear it. The vagueness and open ended nature of the law has been heavily utilized when cracking down on gay activists, to a point to where it has justified violence from emerging vigilante groups, not of government control, in hunting down and abusing homosexuals. Article 19 disputed the claimed intent of the law, and noted that many of the terms used in it were too ambiguous, such as the aforementioned "non-traditional sexual relations" and "raises interest in", arguing that it "feasibly could apply to any information regarding sexual orientation or gender identity that does not fit with what the State considers as in-line with 'tradition'."

Unlike some of the aforementioned regional laws, which specifically used the term "homosexual propaganda", the federal law uses the term "non-traditional sexual relationships", an euphemism implied to refer to any type of non-heterosexual sexual orientation.

Free speech is now essentially illegal in Russia, and anything that opposes what the government defines as "traditional values" is justification for legal punitive measures.


Weapon shipments to Syria (2011-2013)
Russia has been shipping large amounts of weapons to Bashar al-Assad, with one ship loaded with "dangerous cargo" notably having to stop in Cyprus due to stormy weather on 10 January 2012. Russia's current contracts with Syria for arms are estimated to be worth 1.5 billion US dollars, comprising 10% of Russia's global arms sales.

Russia can largely be seen as the sole reason Syria has had the equivalent of a quantum leap in technological capabilities. Possessing some of the most advanced aircraft in the world, Syria's aircraft number is now larger the entirety of Iran, a country with 70 million people. These included modern Russian aircraft, not just surplus aircraft. Furthermore, Russia intended to and likely has already supplied Syria with hundreds of S-300 missiles, literally the most sophisticated anti-air weapons in the world; such devices could potentially take down advanced American aircraft, making intervention in the region difficult, in a manner, preemptively giving the ability to halt and kill Americans or NATO allied forces should we try to intervene.

The U.N. confirmed that the Syrian government killed over 1000 innocent civilians in a nerve gas attack in 2013. When the U.S. moved to intervene, Russia threatened the U.S. with warships in the Syrian sea, which was the beginning of escalating military tensions with Russia.

Over 100,000 innocent people have died in the Syrian war thus far[1][2], with around 3 million refugees and 9 million internally displaced according to the U.N. as of may 2014, of people now considered to be within the Refugee status, one of the highest figures ever in recorded history.


Eeuro Maiden, Russia invades the Ukraine (2014)
Things only worsened during the Olympics, although for time it seemed as if there was a true stand still. The Euromaiden, as it's been called, was a wave of protests across ukraine after the Ukraine government reluctantly halted it's integration with the European Union, following Russian threats. This included complete economic sanctions and up to and included missile threats. "It is frightening not only to say but even to think that Russia, in response to the emergence of such positioning areas on Ukrainian territory, which cannot be ruled out in theory, will target its offensive missile systems at Ukraine," he said. "Can you imagine that for a second? That is what we are concerned about."

In mid-August 2013 Russia changed its customs regulations on imports from Ukraine such that on 14 August 2013, the Russian Custom Service stopped all goods coming from Ukraine and prompted politicians and sources] to view the move as the start of a trade war against Ukraine to prevent Ukraine from signing a trade agreement with the European Union. Ukrainian Industrial Policy Minister Mykhailo Korolenko stated on 18 December 2013 that because of this Ukraine's exports had dropped by $1.4 billion (or a 10% year-on-year decrease through the first 10 months of the year). The State Statistics Service of Ukraine reported in November 2013 that in comparison with the same months of 2012, industrial production in Ukraine in October 2013 had fallen by 4.9 percent, in September 2013 by 5.6 percent, and in August 2013 by 5.4 percent (and that the industrial production in Ukraine in 2012 total had fallen by 1.8 percent).

The parliament impeached Yanukovych, replaced the government with a pro-European one, and released Yulia Tymoshenko from prison. In the aftermath, the Crimean crisis began amid pro-Russian unrest. Despite the impeachment of Yanukovych, the installation of a new government, and the signature of the political provisions of the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement, the protests have been ongoing to sustain pressure on the government, counter pro-Russian protests, and reject Russian occupation of Ukraine. The general area of the pro-Ukraine and pro-Europe protests has shifted from Kiev and western Ukraine to the include the eastern and southern areas of the country as well.

Following the events of the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution, a secession crisis began on Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula. In late February 2014, unmarked armed forces began to take over the Crimean Peninsula in Ukraine. Experts identified the gunmen to be Russian Special Forces[39] and other paramilitaries. Russia at the time insisted that the forces did not include Russian troops stationed in the area, but only local self-defense forces. The local population and the media referred to them as "martians" or "little green men". On 17 April, Russian president Vladimir Putin admitted that Russian troops were in fact active in Crimea during the referendum, claiming this facilitated self-determination for the region.

On March 27, the U.N. General Assembly passed a non-binding Resolution 68/262 that declared the Crimean referendum invalid and the incorporation of Crimea into Russia illegal. [1][2]




Recent Emerging Crisis
As if invading the Ukraine wasn't enough, they have now been reported to kill over 1200 Ukrainian troops, and many more. Despite being internationally condemned, Russia has refused to pull it's forces from Crimea or the Ukraine and refuses to admit it's involvement in many cases, threatening war against the U.S. should the U.S. try to drive the Russian forces out of the country.

In what has to be the most obscene land grab in the 21st century, Russia and U.S. relations are quickly dropping below that of the cold war, which never saw direct military activity against each country. If the U.S. does directly intervene in the Ukraine and Syria, it could easily catalyze a war between the U.S. and Russia.

Moral obligations demand the U.S. be involved in this, as well as the rest of the world, but this could very well ignite a war that could be on par with the concerns of WWIII. With Russia possessing nukes, there is no guarantee that nukes will be not be used in this conflict, especially with the escalating tensions. While the U.S., Canada, and other countries have placed sanctions [1] on Russia, it likely will do little to impede their military forces in Ukraine.

With Russia's recent activities, there is little to indicate that they will stop at Crimea, and many fear more of the Ukraine will be taken over, as Russia desires many more states, including Estonia and the baltic states, with an attempt to form a "Greater Russia", and retake the ex-soviet countries. The world may be heading into total war, worse than anything we've seen in the cold war.

What do you think, ED?



Update: Apparently, Russia is now stepping up it's involvement, and has tried to deny their involvement by suggesting entire Russian military unit's went on vacations for the holiday in the midst of a warzone in Ukraine. With all their guns and equipment and siding with the rebels and mowing down entire cities. The fact that this is an event that is occurring on the world stage boggles my mind. This is literally insane.

There are no words.

Well, anyways, there's plenty of proof of Russia's involvement including sattelite data [1][2][3][4], including NATO and the U.S. claiming they're there, plenty of photographic evidence showing soldiers in uniform and with specific weapons, including special forces, and providing equipment (such as tanks) and artillery bombardment [1]. They've mobilized forces under the guise of humanitarian support, which is likely going to destroy their credibility for a long time; particularly important is that they claimed to be delivering the aid with the support of the Red Cross, who did not actually support their actions. [1][2][3][4][5]

Fanatical Zealot

Impending war with Russia
As I illustrated in my previous topic detailing the growing conflict in Syria and Ukraine, it appears now as if Russia has more or less jumped the proverbial shark not just by sending warships to block the U.S. into going into Syria and battling several very real threats that are getting out of control, including Assad and ISIL, [1][2][3] but by sending troops, special forces of all groups, into the Ukraine to capture key manufacturing and industrial areas. [1][2][3][4] Largely considered by the international community to still be Ukraine territory, more or less Russia is in control of these territories, with it's military guarding them, and the only way to recapture these areas of Ukraine's country to be in direct conflict with Russia. It's a horrifying prospect, indeed.

NATO is on alert as they fear Russia may decide to try and take over more territory, and the world is now tensing for what might be the biggest conflict since WWII. [1][2][3][4] The illusion of peace between Russia and NATO is now shattered; the thin veil which kept the war cold between us has now fell, if not been burned, as Mutually Assured destruction from the threat of nuclear warfare is no longer a deterrent for war. With the leaders of Russia doing insane and psychotic things, we are now on the brink of a war that could spell the wide spread destruction of large parts of the world; even if it's not done over Ukraine, or over Syria, Russia most likely will continue more and more, until there is something we are not willing to let them take. Russia has sent bomber aircraft closer to the U.S. than during even the cold war, making this worse than any time during that period. [1][2][3][4]


In the meantime, the U.S. has begun bombing in Syria, and placed sanctions on Russia. While these sanctions were designed largely to be put on rich people, Russia's government once again overreacted by, strangely enough, placing sanctions on themselves, preventing food from entering their country. Russia's very strategy seems to be at the moment, please stand still or we will be shooting ourselves. Or, perhaps, more aptly, Russia's government is threatening it's own people to be annihilated by the U.S., be it in nuclear war and it's soldier's who are largely blind to what's going on (although many are starting to realize what is happening, no thanks to the propaganda control) who they obviously don't seem to care about. This is a startling turn of events, as it only seems to be escalating.

While Russia denies it's troops being in Ukraine supporting the rebels [1][2][3], they also said the same thing in Crimea; now admitting they are there, but that they are on vacation [1][2][3], and giving them medals, it's fairly obvious that the two-face Russia is putting up is a blatant lie, and with their past actions would make it difficult if ever possible to reconcile with Russia fully after this point, especially while still having Crimea under their control. With increasingly flimsy excuses, which still paint Russia in a bad light if they are to be believed (how would someone take it if American soldiers invaded their country, took all their weapons and guns with them, and started bombing them on their vacations, and then were given medals for it, encouraging the behavior?), it's difficult to find a way that would make this situation end well.


The question, for the moment, ED, is what do you think we should do?

As the world edges closer to a god awful war, what are your thoughts on the issue?

Fanatical Zealot

As the world edges closer to a greater crisis, the situation only seems to be getting worse between the U.S. and Russia, with no diplomatic end likely to be in sight.

Fanatical Zealot

the reverend silver
Suicidesoldier#1
As the world edges closer to a greater crisis, the situation only seems to be getting worse between the U.S. and Russia, with no diplomatic end likely to be in sight.

You bastards just had to play with fire, didn't you? Leave Russia alone. Let them have Ukraine back. You should never have tried to take it in the first place; they're not even a European country.


I say again, leave Russia be. You are not ready. The Russian nation is a well-oiled machine, and if you rise against them, you will cause the death of us all.


wut

Really?


Shouldn't Ukraine get to decide if Ukraine wants to be a part of Russia?

They left at the end of the soviet union to avoid the habitual oppression that befell them under their rule, now they're supposed to go back?


Come on bro, I thought you were all about revolution and self determination and s**t.

Now you side with Russia? For shame. Also, Russia's really not a well oil machined so much as a jumbled mess filled with a bunch of violent crazy people, or else this wouldn't have happened.

Fanatical Zealot

the reverend silver
Suicidesoldier#1
the reverend silver
Suicidesoldier#1
As the world edges closer to a greater crisis, the situation only seems to be getting worse between the U.S. and Russia, with no diplomatic end likely to be in sight.

You bastards just had to play with fire, didn't you? Leave Russia alone. Let them have Ukraine back. You should never have tried to take it in the first place; they're not even a European country.


I say again, leave Russia be. You are not ready. The Russian nation is a well-oiled machine, and if you rise against them, you will cause the death of us all.


wut

Really?


Shouldn't Ukraine get to decide if Ukraine wants to be a part of Russia?

They left at the end of the soviet union to avoid the habitual oppression that befell them under their rule, now they're supposed to go back?


Come on bro, I thought you were all about revolution and self determination and s**t.

Now you side with Russia? For shame. Also, Russia's really not a well oil machined so much as a jumbled mess filled with a bunch of violent crazy people, or else this wouldn't have happened.

******** that, let Ukraine try and stop them if Ukraine's feeling big and tough. One time, I was on WorldStarHipHop, and I saw a Russian lady kill someone with a stick just out of nowhere. They were talking, and she walked off, got a stick, and just WHAM, doomed his a**.


You can't make me fight them. You can't. I won't.


You could, idk, use a machine gun.

You know, machine guns > sticks, last time I checked.


Then again, it depends on the stick. xp

Also, I just checked out worldstarthiphop... just... just so much wrong...

Conservative Regular

the reverend silver
The Russian nation is a well-oiled machine.


It's a third world nation what acts like it's first world

The EU is capable of bashing it in and taking the Oil and gas Rich clay

but we sort of don't want the millions dead and many years of war to do that.
Texadar
the reverend silver
The Russian nation is a well-oiled machine.


It's a third world nation what acts like it's first world

The EU is capable of bashing it in and taking the Oil and gas Rich clay

but we sort of don't want the millions dead and many years of war to do that.


It's by definition a Second World nation and wants nothing less than to be First World.

Dapper Genius

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Texadar
the reverend silver
The Russian nation is a well-oiled machine.


It's a third world nation what acts like it's first world

The EU is capable of bashing it in and taking the Oil and gas Rich clay

but we sort of don't want the millions dead and many years of war to do that.

The first world is the set of nations that sided with the US during the Cold War and the US itself.
The second world is everyone who sided with Russia and Russia.
The third world is everyone else.

These are the definitions.
Russia is, by definition, a second world country.

If you want to talk about economic power, economic health, quality of living and so on, stop throwing stones you're getting glass everywhere.
Can someone explain to me why they got the Olympics? That seemed ridiculous to me.

Fanatical Zealot

Texadar
the reverend silver
The Russian nation is a well-oiled machine.


It's a third world nation what acts like it's first world

The EU is capable of bashing it in and taking the Oil and gas Rich clay

but we sort of don't want the millions dead and many years of war to do that.


Russia may be ran by thugs, but that doesn't necessarily make it a third world, sadly. Their military equipment was second in the world at one point, and while they've downsized, they've kept all the good stuff, and still have everything up to nukes.

With some of their newer aircraft, tanks, and general weapons, it might be difficult for most of Europe to fight them, especially since they aren't organized as a central force.

Liberal Hunter

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Texadar
the reverend silver
The Russian nation is a well-oiled machine.


It's a third world nation what acts like it's first world

The EU is capable of bashing it in and taking the Oil and gas Rich clay

but we sort of don't want the millions dead and many years of war to do that.



A third world nation eh?
Granted it's by definition second world
Granted it's military arsenal is still a major danger to the United States
Granted even if it didn't want to engage with the Americans in warfare it can easily arm many of America's enemies.
Granted Russia can simply cut off EU's oil supply and watch their economy tank before any of the recession hits Russia
Granted Russia can now send it's navy to damage the Suez Canal causing further energy problems

Only idiots underestimate their adversary

Adventuring Explorer

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Putin is reaching the age where he wants to make an 'impact'.

Olympic games and World Cup in football are examples of showing Russian influence, but now he's older than he was when Russia won the rights to arrange those events.

He thinks Soviet falling apart was a disaster, and wants to reestablish a Russian zone of influence, and preferily reconquer the other Soviet states.

He's working on Ukraine. In Europe, there are also the Baltic states, Belarus and Moldova.

*Belarus has a leader as authoritarian as Putin, they would probably join voluntarily.
*Baltic states will fight with teeth and claws for their independence. They're also members of the EU and NATO; if Russia attacks either country there will be another world war. I don't think Putin is crazy enough for that, although I think the idea tempts him.
*Moldova has had a situation with Transnistria, a small Russian dominated region the main government never got control of. They'd join Russia voluntarily, but the rest of Moldova would probably be less eager. The country would actually benefit economically by joining Russia, it's the poorest country in Europe.

In Asia I'm less up to date. Georgia obviously does not want to rejoin Russia, they've been having skirmishes. The rest of them, I don't know.

USA and the EU have been boycotting Russia. The US is more eager to increase the boycotts, which makes sense - the EU has more trade with Russia so the costs of the boycotts are affecting the EU more than the US.

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