Nyadriel
I quit after the 11th time trying to do a 4th lv item. It's why I think that it should be 9 out of 10 failures. 100% or over is just not acceptable.
Well, maybe it does have a 90% fail rate (idk for sure, but just as an example). That does not mean that if you try to craft it ten times that you'll be guaranteed to craft it once. It just means that you have a 90% chance to fail each time. So, if you try 11 times with a 90% fail rate, it means that there's roughly a 30% chance that you will not have crafted it by the end of that 11th try (take a fail rate to the x (# of tries) power to find probability of not crafting after x tries). There's no way to have a "100% or over" fail rate. It just means you have to either be really lucky or very persistent.
However, it should be that lower level formulas have lower fail rates. You know, like .01 - 5% fail rate for level 1, then slowly ramp it up to 95 - 99% fail rate (for example) at level 10, though keeping the crafting costs fairly low throughout the process. If you only have to spend up to 10k to craft an item, but it takes an average of, say, 50 - 100 tries, that's still only 500k - 1 mil in total costs; plus some will get lucky and craft after a small number of tries to raise peoples' hopes, but an unlucky few will need to try many, many more times, allowing for an adequate combination of gold sink and potential hope -- basically the same concept as a casino, with big winners frequent enough to keep people trying in the hopes that they'll get lucky like that.