What is the solution to Syria?

[Tranquil Surrogate]

Syria is such a multidimensional problem that's incredibly tragic and difficult to predict. What started as a simply defined Middle Eastern uprising similar to that of Libya has now become complex beyond anything we could've imagined. It's not just the Free Syrian Army against the Syrian state, the increasingly powerful extremist splinters of Al-Qaeda and Al-Nusra are also fighting alongside them (though operating independently). No doubt it's because they see the opportunity to exert some influence over whatever order rises out of the chaos. The war is essentially a game for these factions.

Meanwhile, the unethical tactics of the terrorist factions are making it increasingly difficult for the FSA to gain support from the West to the point that, now that many of the groups have pledged allegiance to Al-Qaeda, military intervention is almost certainly out the window. This conflict will resolve itself in time, but Syria will likely never recover from this. Even if Bashar-Al Assad loses to the rebellion, it will become a free-for-all among the factions to gain power and the FSA will be locked in a constant struggle to maintain control.

What are your thoughts on this ED? Is there any hope for the future of Syria? Or is Syria inevitably going to be torn apart by the many radically different factions vying for power in a country plunged into post-autocratic anarchy?

[Kazuma]

Tranquil Surrogate

.What are your thoughts on this ED? Is there any hope for the future of Syria?

Yes. Provided we let Assad take care of his al-Qaeda infestation without interfering.

[Tranquil Surrogate]

Kazuma

Tranquil Surrogate

.What are your thoughts on this ED? Is there any hope for the future of Syria?

Yes. Provided we let Assad take care of his al-Qaeda infestation without interfering.

I don't think that will work. The rebels, despite being splintered and factionalized, are increasingly powerful. Many of Assad's best officers and generals have deserted him to join the FSA. It's hard to say for certain which side will win, but it's safe to say that neither side will be backing down.

Aside from that, if Assad does win the war it will be in part due to the extensive use of indiscriminate weapons like chemical weapons and landmines. Once all is done, it's likely that the civilian casualties will be far higher than if the international community had intervened and ended it quickly. Libya probably would've turned into a bloodbath if it hadn't been for NATO intervention, but because of it the conflict came to an end quickly and relatively cleanly.

[Tranquil Surrogate]

bannedmanswag03

I've heard from Syrians that the rebels are bad news too.


Let them fight it out until they're both weak, then before they can regroup, send in freedom fighters to kill all remaining military forces.

Who's military forces? Assad's or the FSA's?

Civilians are being killed every day as a result of this conflict. Is it really the most ethical thing to do to just let these factions battle it out at the expense of innocents?

[Heimdalr]

Russia and the Ba'ath are the prime enemies here, and that's going to draw in a host of different factions. The enemy of my enemy and so on. I'm not going to say no good can come of it either way, but participating entities, clandestine or overt, are going to have to fight to win the hearts and minds of the people rather than the obsolete he bad guy gon kill him.

[Ammo Amy]

Tranquil Surrogate

bannedmanswag03

I've heard from Syrians that the rebels are bad news too.


Let them fight it out until they're both weak, then before they can regroup, send in freedom fighters to kill all remaining military forces.

Who's military forces? Assad's or the FSA's?

Civilians are being killed every day as a result of this conflict. Is it really the most ethical thing to do to just let these factions battle it out at the expense of innocents?

What makes Syria any different than Darfur? The actions there have been going on since 2003 and makes the deaths in Syria a drop in the bucket in comparison. I guess its just because there are more interesting things around Syria for the US than there is in Africa, eh?

[Patton]

Tranquil Surrogate

What are your thoughts on this ED? Is there any hope for the future of Syria? Or is Syria inevitably going to be torn apart by the many radically different factions vying for power in a country plunged into post-autocratic anarchy?

There is definately hope for Syria. Iran's Ayatollahs are sending Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah clients into Syria instead of menacing Israel. Al Qaeda's franchise in Iraq sends religious zealots next door to fight Ba'athists (instead of being a nuissance to civilized folks elsewhere). Tsar Vladimir IV Putin sending "peacekeepers" to the Golan heights.

The hope for Syria is that the Ayatollah and Al Qaeda continue to perform this catharsis upon each other for another two years or so. And hopefully, the new Tsar in Moscow does not obtain for himself a puppet in Damascas.

[Wendigo]

A really big war (encompassing major powers at the least including the United States, Russia, and China), that will last a long time, hurt a lot of people, and potentially destroy the world.

Or, something stupid and temporary.

[Plata Plomo y Sangre]

Wendigo

A really big war (encompassing major powers at the least including the United States, Russia, and China), that will last a long time, hurt a lot of people, and potentially destroy the world.

Or, something stupid and temporary.

This. A solution is rolling through and killing everyone involved. Personally I'd support ******** up both Assad AND the rebels since I don't trust that us arming these goddamn people is NOT going to almost instantaneously turn around the second Assad and the Alawites are uninstalled. So I'd say just kick the s**t out of both sides, let the Syrians vote and leave the s**t. Obviously this is a pretty dumb plan considering aside from not having any ******** money to do it, Russia and or China may or may not get their panties bunched, and then we'd ******** them up and probably get all hurt ourselves. So it's A solution, but probably not the best.

[Patton]

Tactical Leg Sweep

Wendigo

A really big war (encompassing major powers at the least including the United States, Russia, and China), that will last a long time, hurt a lot of people, and potentially destroy the world.

Or, something stupid and temporary.

This. A solution is rolling through and killing everyone involved. Personally I'd support ******** up both Assad AND the rebels since I don't trust that us arming these goddamn people is NOT going to almost instantaneously turn around the second Assad and the Alawites are uninstalled. So I'd say just kick the s**t out of both sides, let the Syrians vote and leave the s**t. Obviously this is a pretty dumb plan considering aside from not having any ******** money to do it, Russia and or China may or may not get their panties bunched, and then we'd ******** them up and probably get all hurt ourselves. So it's A solution, but probably not the best.

We can do this without actually rolling in. Russia sells arms et al to the Assad regime and reap the windfall, America sells arms et al to the rebels. Neither side gives enough to let one side win over the other. And leave the question of whether or not they will vote to after the last Quds / Qaeda fighter decides they have had enough.

That way, everyone wins! mrgreen

[Wendigo]

So Patton's definitely in the "stupid and temporary" camp.

Personally, I'm all for shooting Assad in the back of the head and rolling his body in a hole. It wouldn't solve anything, but it'd be satisfying.

[Goldgato]

Tactical Leg Sweep

Wendigo

A really big war (encompassing major powers at the least including the United States, Russia, and China), that will last a long time, hurt a lot of people, and potentially destroy the world.

Or, something stupid and temporary.

This. A solution is rolling through and killing everyone involved. Personally I'd support ******** up both Assad AND the rebels since I don't trust that us arming these goddamn people is NOT going to almost instantaneously turn around the second Assad and the Alawites are uninstalled. So I'd say just kick the s**t out of both sides, let the Syrians vote and leave the s**t. Obviously this is a pretty dumb plan considering aside from not having any ******** money to do it, Russia and or China may or may not get their panties bunched, and then we'd ******** them up and probably get all hurt ourselves. So it's A solution, but probably not the best.

The problem is that people react to having democracy forced on them by an outside force in about the same way they react to anything being forced on them by an outside force. The only democracies that have ever worked to establish stability and security are democracies that have been built by their people. It's one thing to give aid to rebels if we believe they have a better chance at promoting stability and security for their people than the current administration, but a foreign army with a forced ideology is a foreign army with a forced ideology. Remember how well Iraq and Afghanistan turned out after we "liberated" their countries? Democracy means "rule of the people" for a reason.

[Lucem Pristinam]

A solution would've been to never stick our noses in it in the first place. Let them fught it out then buy oil from whoever wins (or whatever they export over there).

"Commerce with all. Ally with none."