"Going to hell in a breadbasket"

[Korizu]

Call it paranoia, but I was listening to Harry Shearer's Le Show the other day and he said that according to the US Dept. of Agriculture 2005 will be the first year in nearly 50 eek in which the US will not have an agricultural trade surplus. That is big, I mean that is freaking huge! Agricultural balance of trade has been carrying our economy, remember that "breadbasket of the world" is the nickname for America's midwest. We already are getting our asses kicked in most other categories, as far as I know. So my question is, how did this happen? We have the most advanced genetic engineering, we have a ton of incredibly good farmland, and there are even governemnt subsidies. Why doesn't the government ste up to the plate and put some tarriffs in place, and why don't big corporations buy American instead of being selfish?

[Puerilass The Perverted]

I've been out of the loop. But what exactly is going to be low on the surplus. Is it wheat? Corn? humm... Its intresting. but I don't know if it will have much impact on anything.

One of The reasons it might be low is the aid we are giving out to the countries who got hit by that Tsunami. But even then the product is still produced and paid for. its just not in the "Surplus"

[Korizu]

Well, the Tsunami aid might affect it, but this study, I just checked now, was realeased on November 22nd. As for what products are causing it, I suppose it's a little of all agriculture. But the fatest growing import (so we're losing money on it) is beef which is forecast at $3.8 billion dollars. Now I don't know the figures, but imagine all the cars imported from Europe and Asia, and electronics imported from Asia as well as jobs sent overseas, and I find it hard to believe that we can afford to import meat and grain from Canada and Australia. Those have pretty much always been America's strong point, which is fine if we can replace the reveue, but how many industries are left?

[Puerilass The Perverted]

Cows arn't Agriculture.... Thats live stock. It wouldn't have any affect on the "Agriculture" surplus....

[Shaviv]

Puerilis

Cows arn't Agriculture.... Thats live stock. It wouldn't have any affect on the "Agriculture" surplus....

Cows are regulated by the DoA, aren't they?

[Puerilass The Perverted]

Shaviv

Puerilis

Cows arn't Agriculture.... Thats live stock. It wouldn't have any affect on the "Agriculture" surplus....

Cows are regulated by the DoA, aren't they?

They don't count cows when listing agriculture tho. They refer only to Vegetables, Fruits and other Produce.

Meats, Eggs, And Dairy all go into their own little sections.

[Famicommie]

Did this report list any reasoning whatsoever? Do you have the link? I'm pretty curious about this particular issue.

[Puerilass The Perverted]

Well without seeing this report I could make a very wise guess thats its just an Off year.

You see you can't grow the same thing in the ground over and over and over. The nutrients in the ground would get depleated. So you have to do alternating crops.

George Washington Carver was a genious in this field, He proposed the planting of Peanut crops in alternation with Wheat and Corn because Peanuts will in the end replenish the soils nutrients.

But even with Crop Rotations you have to let some Fields sit and stay wet. So you water them and let the cows roam in them.

Cow Manuer does a good job for the ground. Once that field has gone through an off season or too, you go out and till the earth up let it sit, add water, then plant your next crop.

[Hygge]

The shortfall comes from two sources: one, increased overseas production reducing demand for US foodstuffs, and two, people in the US buying expensive 'gourmet' ingredients that are imported. Why? Luxury cachet, I guess. The trade deficit as a whole comes from a variety of sources, but it's not something I worry about overmuch, either, as it doesn't really stem from any systemic weakness in the US economy.

[Puerilass The Perverted]

Hygge

The shortfall comes from two sources: one, increased overseas production reducing demand for US foodstuffs, and two, people in the US buying expensive 'gourmet' ingredients that are imported. Why? Luxury cachet, I guess. The trade deficit as a whole comes from a variety of sources, but it's not something I worry about overmuch, either, as it doesn't really stem from any systemic weakness in the US economy.

That may not be a bad thing. That means that some of the "third world" countries are starting to pick up slack and use the land they own for more then just... land.

Foreign Dependance on our products means they are growing. Thus more Competition, Competition is good for any market as long as it doesn't lead to, short comings on the prices of items.

[Korizu]

Now certainly it is good, humanitarian wise for countries to provide for themselves, but even if their production is going up, we shouldn't have a negative balance of trade, we actually aren't able to support ourselves, break even. Crop rotation wouldn't do it either because I think they usually plan so that the same amount of land is "resting" each year. And I know this alone isn't big, but when you add in the electronics, cars, petroleum, and labor, it seems like we're hemorrhaging money.
Edit: You make a good point about the "gourmet" mystique of foriegn food, but it goes beyond that. Along with Sherry and Gouda we're importing wheat and sirloin.

[Puerilass The Perverted]

I think its going to balance out in the end. Its like the economy. It goes up, it goes down, Its no one in particulars fault. Its like the tide of the earth, The only thing you can blame is gravity from the moon.



So lets bomb the moon then everything will balance out perfectly

[Hygge]

Quote:

we shouldn't have a negative balance of trade, we actually aren't able to support ourselves, break even.

Actually, US agricultural output has grown and so have our agricultural *exports*. The deficit isn't a result of food shortages; it's actually the result of surplus food overseas and the US economy being relatively strong compared to Japan and the EU. Consumers here have the cash to blow on pigging out, and as a brief glance at nearby waistlines shows, they're taking advantage.

[Korizu]

Well at long last, I did track the report. Took forever, but here's the link Full Text of the Report, and it is a bit of a long one, so here's a summary Report Summary. The report blames the weakness of the dollar and the development elsewhere. Turns out I was misinformed, saying that it was a negative ratio, when actually the estimates are exactly even. So that bit makes it less alarming, however this continues a 40 -year trend of imports getting higher and higher. And a trend of balance of agriculture trade declining for 5 years. So the worry would be that even though we can afford it now, eventually if we send more money overseas every year we won't be able. At some point, down the road we will have to change end this pattern.