Pol. Rammifications of Unemploy Topping 10%

[BlueCollarJoe]

White Wolf of Nebu

BlueCollarJoe

White Wolf of Nebu

Brothern

Oh definitely. I certainly could have never EVER figured out that the unemployment was going to top 10% without first typing all my numbers into graphical analysis and finding the coefficient of determination. *rolls eyes*

Because that's totally what they pay economists for! Making vague self-evident predictions based on pure horse s**t. If your going to talk tough about the economy and economic movement, do it right next time.

It's not pure horseshit, White Wolf. Yeah, Brothern either pulled this from deep in his a** or he paid attention to the right analyst. But when it comes to predicting unemployment in an economy like we're in right now?
Aside from the standard hard numbers, one must factor in the soft element, because that will start a snowball effect on your unemployment figures. If the media starts an 'economy is still failing' drive, you'll see unemployment go up yet again, too.
If they report it's declining, and do so consecutively, you may see people starting to hire again.
This is fuzzy math, because when you put the human element in it, you don't get hard numbers.

Of course you don't get hard numbers. I'm just sick of people pretending to be experts on the economy, yet they're only people who parrot other analysts and somehow think they're hot s**t.

I am not and expert, I admit, but I've done enough of this stuff to know it's a lot harder then the average joe (no pun intended on your name) claims to understand from his couch.

My point against brothern is a general rant against all these kinds of people pooping under in the wake of the last recession. As someone who is putting hard work into understanding what can be at times very complicated stuff, it really pisses me off.

I understand. WAG's are WAG's, and sometimes, they get lucky. I don't see it improving any over the next few months, other than some temp work due to holidays, but I also am withholding judgment until spring on what I actually expect to happen next.

[Brothern]

White Wolf of Nebu

I'm just sick of people pretending to be experts on the economy ...

... As someone who is putting hard work into understanding what can be at times very complicated stuff, it really pisses me off.

Wow. Just wow. Let's get all pissy on a forum because we just suddenly realized that our science that we do for a living is (and has always been) entirely estimated guesswork.

I mean clearly all it's completely rational to have believe that economists know exactly what the economy is doing ALL THE TIME and are able to successfully predict what will happen to the economy WITHOUT FAIL because they happened to study it in college.

[BlueCollarJoe]

Brothern

White Wolf of Nebu

I'm just sick of people pretending to be experts on the economy ...

... As someone who is putting hard work into understanding what can be at times very complicated stuff, it really pisses me off.

Wow. Just wow. Let's get all pissy on a forum because we just suddenly realized that our science that we do for a living is (and has always been) entirely estimated guesswork.

I mean clearly all it's completely rational to have believe that economists know exactly what the economy is doing ALL THE TIME and are able to successfully predict what will happen to the economy WITHOUT FAIL because they happened to study it in college.

Brothern, don't act all innocent. You started what is tantamount to a gloating thread and accuse someone else of getting pissy?
THAT is one hell of a double standard. Show some sportsmanship. You won. You should have simply PM'ed AL and informed them to send your money, rather than a ******** topic in which to gloat and piss off others.

[Cory Shallow]

Brothern

White Wolf of Nebu

I'm just sick of people pretending to be experts on the economy ...

... As someone who is putting hard work into understanding what can be at times very complicated stuff, it really pisses me off.

Wow. Just wow. Let's get all pissy on a forum because we just suddenly realized that our science that we do for a living is (and has always been) entirely estimated guesswork.

I mean clearly all it's completely rational to have believe that economists know exactly what the economy is doing ALL THE TIME and are able to successfully predict what will happen to the economy WITHOUT FAIL because they happened to study it in college.

Not to mention study of bamboozle things like history to justify theories.
Let's doubt economics as a science because we're that partisan.

[Mokie7]

Brothern

Wow. Just wow. Let's get all pissy on a forum because we just suddenly realized that our science that we do for a living is (and has always been) entirely estimated guesswork.

Weren't you previously lecturing others about the importance of taking classes in economics? And now you're calling the entire field (which multiple ED-P regulars have actually devoted time and money to study for as a career) "guesswork"?

Brothern

Jay Riot

All you did was say death panels may be real, then you started ranting about socialism. It was hard to follow.

Have you ever taken an economics class in your life?

Yes?

Turn to page 1 and read about economic systems.

Edit: Socialism.

[BlueCollarJoe]

Mokie7

Brothern

Wow. Just wow. Let's get all pissy on a forum because we just suddenly realized that our science that we do for a living is (and has always been) entirely estimated guesswork.

Weren't you previously lecturing others about the importance of taking classes in economics? And now you're calling the entire field (which multiple ED-P regulars have actually devoted time and money to study for as a career) "guesswork"?

It is guesswork in the field, Mokie. Granted, a highly educated guess, where one needs to know trends and historical data to predict, but the numbers aren't confirmed, but soft, and prone to being erroneous to a degree, which could be minuscule to large, depending on the fabricated math involved.
It is a science, but one that is as much science as art, and one that takes a touch of psychiatry.

[Mokie7]

BlueCollarJoe

Mokie7

Brothern

Wow. Just wow. Let's get all pissy on a forum because we just suddenly realized that our science that we do for a living is (and has always been) entirely estimated guesswork.

Weren't you previously lecturing others about the importance of taking classes in economics? And now you're calling the entire field (which multiple ED-P regulars have actually devoted time and money to study for as a career) "guesswork"?

It is guesswork in the field, Mokie. Granted, a highly educated guess, where one needs to know trends and historical data to predict, but the numbers aren't confirmed, but soft, and prone to being erroneous to a degree, which could be minuscule to large, depending on the fabricated math involved.
It is a science, but one that is as much science as art, and one that takes a touch of psychiatry.

That's the thing... it's still a science and should be treated as such. When you treat it purely as guesswork, you get crazy reactions like ZOMG DEATH PANELS

[Lord Cameron]

everything is guess work, thats what makes the best - the best. They're able to guess using data better than others.

[Chains4w]

What's more, predictions are for further job losses in both November and December. At least.

Poor Nancy, she just keeps getting bad news in a week where she absolutely needs her slaves to vote properly....

Also, between the elections and this bad news, the President's first sub-50% job approval rating is due sometime in the next seven days. Gallup, I predict. Then the President's agenda will be all but damned for the foreseeable future.

Talk about your perfect storm.

[Mokie7]

Chains4w

Poor Nancy, she just keeps getting bad news in a week where she absolutely needs her slaves to vote properly....

Since there is no better alternate plan, I don't see why the votes shouldn't just line up at this point.

Chains4w

Also, between the elections and this bad news, the President's first sub-50% job approval rating is due sometime in the next seven days. Gallup, I predict. Then the President's agenda will be all but damned for the foreseeable future.

Talk about your perfect storm.

And how does any of this help Americans?
Instead continuing with your partisan bullshit, why don't you tell us what should be done to fix things?


I'm also sensing a double standard here, since all-too-often my concerns about the uninsured have been swept aside with comments like "it's ONLY 15% of the population... and many of them choose not to have insurance. So why should I care?"

Alright, let's turn this around: "it's ONLY 10% of the population... and many of them choose not to work. So why should I care?"

[Chains4w]

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Since there is no better alternate plan, I don't see why the votes shouldn't just line up at this point.

"Nothing" is looking like a very good alternative at this point. And not just to Republicans...

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And how does any of this help Americans?

By putting a short-term stop and a long-term end to a nine month spending spree that threatens to bankrupt our nation. A stable, solvent United States is worth more than any government handout.

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Instead continuing with your partisan bullshit, why don't you tell us what should be done to fix things?

Stop spending so much damned money, for one.

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Alright, let's turn this around: "it's ONLY 10% of the population... and many of them choose not to work. So why should I care?"

You should care because that statistic busts your party in the kneecaps. Not having health care insurance, as you said, is for many a choice. A choice to be denied by this legislation, I might add.

Unemployment, with the exception of transitional unemployment (less than a third of the current number,) is far more potent.

[Mokie7]

Chains4w

Nothing" is looking like a very good alternative at this point.

Then why are you endorsing that action be taken on unemployment?

Why are uninsured cancer victims less of a concern for you than the jobless?

Chains4w

You should care because that statistic busts your party in the kneecaps.

You're making this partisan. Stop it.

[Chains4w]

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Then why are you endorsing that action be taken on unemployment?

I wasn't. I was remarking on how screwed Obama is going to be by the symbolic milestone.

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Why are uninsured cancer victims less of a concern for you than the jobless?

Because the uninsured old are on Medicare, and the uninsured poor are on Medicaid. I believe in letting the uninsured young and middle class buy their own ******** insurance. Though, as I've stated in the past, I believe that certain, damn near free steps could be taken to ease the cost for all involved.

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You're making this partisan. Stop it.

Every time you b***h about partisan sentiment during a partisan debate, you only make yourself look like a complete moron.

[Mokie7]

Chains4w

I wasn't. I was remarking on how screwed Obama is going to be by the symbolic milestone.

Ahh I see, so your immediate reaction was to turn it partisan.

It's good to know what motivates you.

Chains4w

I believe in letting the uninsured young and middle class buy their own ******** insurance.

Which is exactly what the public option will allow them to do. Many of them can't buy insurance due to being rejected because of pre-existing conditions.

Chains4w

Every time you b***h about partisan sentiment during a partisan debate, you only make yourself look like a complete moron.

ad hom

[Chains4w]

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Ahh I see, so your immediate reaction was to turn it partisan.

Partisan, but absolutely correct.

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Which is exactly what the public option will allow them to do. Many of them can't buy insurance due to being rejected because of pre-existing conditions.

Why should insurance companies be forced to do business with people who will only cost them money, and that they know will only cost them money ahead of time. An insurance company is not a charity, it's a for profit business.

As to the public option, way too ******** expensive. Remember what I said about spending?

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ad hom

Every time you incorrectly cite a fallacy you make yourself look like a newb. Ad hominem is rejecting a person's argument based upon their previously made arguments, or supposed beliefs, that are not relevant to the argument that was made.

I did no such thing. You said: Partisan. I said: No s**t, moron.