Proof that Voter ID laws are Racist and Ineffective.

[Keltoi Samurai]

The Washington Post

Could control of the Senate in 2014 be decided by illegal votes cast by non-citizens? Some argue that incidents of voting by non-citizens are so rare as to be inconsequential, with efforts to block fraud a screen for an agenda to prevent poor and minority voters from exercising the franchise, while others define such incidents as a threat to democracy itself. Both sides depend more heavily on anecdotes than data.

In a forthcoming article in the journal Electoral Studies, we bring real data from big social science survey datasets to bear on the question of whether, to what extent, and for whom non-citizens vote in U.S. elections. Most non-citizens do not register, let alone vote. But enough do that their participation can change the outcome of close races.

Our data comes from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES). Its large number of observations (32,800 in 2008 and 55,400 in 2010) provide sufficient samples of the non-immigrant sub-population, with 339 non-citizen respondents in 2008 and 489 in 2010. For the 2008 CCES, we also attempted to match respondents to voter files so that we could verify whether they actually voted.

How many non-citizens participate in U.S. elections? More than 14 percent of non-citizens in both the 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote. Furthermore, some of these non-citizens voted. Our best guess, based upon extrapolations from the portion of the sample with a verified vote, is that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008 and 2.2 percent of non-citizens voted in 2010.
Estimated Voter Turnout by Non-Citizens
2008 2010
Self reported and/or verified 38 (11.3%) 13 (3.5%)
Self reported and verified 5 (1.5%) N.A.
Adjusted estimate 21 (6.4%) 8 (2.2%)

Because non-citizens tended to favor Democrats (Obama won more than 80 percent of the votes of non-citizens in the 2008 CCES sample), we find that this participation was large enough to plausibly account for Democratic victories in a few close elections. Non-citizen votes could have given Senate Democrats the pivotal 60th vote needed to overcome filibusters in order to pass health-care reform and other Obama administration priorities in the 111th Congress. Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) won election in 2008 with a victory margin of 312 votes. Votes cast by just 0.65 percent of Minnesota non-citizens could account for this margin. It is also possible that non-citizen votes were responsible for Obama’s 2008 victory in North Carolina. Obama won the state by 14,177 votes, so a turnout by 5.1 percent of North Carolina’s adult non-citizens would have provided this victory margin.

We also find that one of the favorite policies advocated by conservatives to prevent voter fraud appears strikingly ineffective. Nearly three quarters of the non-citizens who indicated they were asked to provide photo identification at the polls claimed to have subsequently voted.

link


TL;DR: Voter ID laws are racist, and do nothing to actually combat voter fraud, since fraud votes were actually cast by those registered illegally, many of which showed ID anyhow.

Remember, kiddies: Vote Democrat, Vote Early and Vote Often.

[Ratttking]

I used to be a Democrat, but I got better. 3nodding

Al Franken's a senator? rofl

[Keltoi Samurai]

Ratttking

I used to be a Democrat, but I got better. 3nodding

Al Franken's a senator? rofl

I'm a member of neither party.

Far as I'm concerned, we've got one party that thinks they're rebels when they're really just obstructionists, and another party that thinks they're freedom fighters when they're really just whiners.

But this shows once and for all, definitively, that Voter ID laws are ineffective, and if they're not motivated by functionality, then they must be motivated by race, so why would I vote for the racist party?

I mean, Hell, if we give the Democrats a supermajority in both houses of Congress and the Presidency again, they might be able to pass another gutted, watered-down version of a bill they initially wanted a different version of, but were prevented from passing the version they wanted because the Republicans were being big meanies and not agreeing with them.

Hell, if they take all the seats in Congress, and the next Presidency, then they'll have to start relying on the existence of Republican governors to justify why they aren't getting anything done.

Get rid of Republicans on the state level, and then they'll have to start blaming their ineffectiveness on Republican city councils.

Get rid of those, and they'll need to blame it on the fact that someone, somewhere voted for a Republican ( that lost, but the fact that someone voted for him will be enough to obstruct the Dems from doing anything ).

And maybe, once everyone is only voting for Democrats, maybe then they'll finally feel confident enough to actually do something. As it is, their crippling social anxiety that someone might not like them is just causing too many problems.

[Ratttking]

Keltoi Samurai

Ratttking

I used to be a Democrat, but I got better. 3nodding

Al Franken's a senator? rofl

I'm a member of neither party.

Far as I'm concerned, we've got one party that thinks they're rebels when they're really just obstructionists, and another party that thinks they're freedom fighters when they're really just whiners.

But this shows once and for all, definitively, that Voter ID laws are ineffective, and if they're not motivated by functionality, then they must be motivated by race, so why would I vote for the racist party?

I mean, Hell, if we give the Democrats a supermajority in both houses of Congress and the Presidency again, they might be able to pass another gutted, watered-down version of a bill they initially wanted a different version of, but were prevented from passing the version they wanted because the Republicans were being big meanies and not agreeing with them.

Hell, if they take all the seats in Congress, and the next Presidency, then they'll have to start relying on the existence of Republican governors to justify why they aren't getting anything done.

Get rid of Republicans on the state level, and then they'll have to start blaming their ineffectiveness on Republican city councils.

Get rid of those, and they'll need to blame it on the fact that someone, somewhere voted for a Republican ( that lost, but the fact that someone voted for him will be enough to obstruct the Dems from doing anything ).

And maybe, once everyone is only voting for Democrats, maybe then they'll finally feel confident enough to actually do something. As it is, their crippling social anxiety that someone might not like them is just causing too many problems.

Neither? There are more than 2 parties. Are you registered to vote? If so, do you vote?

[Omnileech]

Quote:

Because non-citizens tended to favor Democrats (Obama won more than 80 percent of the votes of non-citizens in the 2008 CCES sample), we find that this participation was large enough to plausibly account for Democratic victories in a few close elections.

Obama won by a landslide by any measure in that election. It makes sense that he'd poll well with foreigners. He also polled well with kids, since we're polling people who can't vote, apparently.

Quote:

How many non-citizens participate in U.S. elections? More than 14 percent of non-citizens in both the 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote. Furthermore, some of these non-citizens voted. Our best guess, based upon extrapolations from the portion of the sample with a verified vote, is that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008 and 2.2 percent of non-citizens voted in 2010.
Estimated Voter Turnout by Non-Citizens
2008 2010
Self reported and/or verified 38 (11.3%) 13 (3.5%)
Self reported and verified 5 (1.5%) N.A.
Adjusted estimate 21 (6.4%) 8 (2.2%)

Because non-citizens tended to favor Democrats (Obama won more than 80 percent of the votes of non-citizens in the 2008 CCES sample), we find that this participation was large enough to plausibly account for Democratic victories in a few close elections. Non-citizen votes could have given Senate Democrats the pivotal 60th vote needed to overcome filibusters in order to pass health-care reform and other Obama administration priorities in the 111th Congress. Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) won election in 2008 with a victory margin of 312 votes. Votes cast by just 0.65 percent of Minnesota non-citizens could account for this margin. It is also possible that non-citizen votes were responsible for Obama’s 2008 victory in North Carolina. Obama won the state by 14,177 votes, so a turnout by 5.1 percent of North Carolina’s adult non-citizens would have provided this victory margin.

And that's just conjecture based on non-citizens somehow voting in improbably large margins in both high and low turnout elections. Who voted in 2008 and 2010 and who is registered to vote is both public knowledge, and if groups of people brazenly committed electoral fraud in large numbers why haven't they been prosecuted?

But of course logic and reason have no place when you blame non-citizens for every close defeat handed to Republicans.

[Misty Moonsilver]

How is voter ID racist?
Are you saying that the only people that can get IDs are white? Are we black people too stupid to get IDs? We don't qualify? We aren't good enough? Racist jerk.

[xdivision_whitey]

Misty Moonsilver

How is voter ID racist?
Are you saying that the only people that can get IDs are white? Are we black people too stupid to get IDs? We don't qualify? We aren't good enough? Racist jerk.

Sadly some black even believe that. They cried so much about it now ID's are being passed out for free, on the tax payers dime.


IDs were suppose to help Keep the dead, felons, non citizens, fictional characters, and pet from voting. If BTK (Serial Killer in Ks) is voting there is a problem, If my late father, late sister, Grandfather or Uncle who also kicked the bucket votes there is a huge problem, If my friend who is Thai with a VISA to stay here in the states votes there is a problem. When all the Power Rangers and Disney princess votes there is a problem. Need I add my pets to the list of problems if they vote, I mean they are under age, With papers.

[Misty Moonsilver]

xdivision_whitey

Misty Moonsilver

How is voter ID racist?
Are you saying that the only people that can get IDs are white? Are we black people too stupid to get IDs? We don't qualify? We aren't good enough? Racist jerk.

Sadly some black even believe that. They cried so much about it now ID's are being passed out for free, on the tax payers dime.


IDs were suppose to help Keep the dead, felons, non citizens, fictional characters, and pet from voting. If BTK (Serial Killer in Ks) is voting there is a problem, If my late father, late sister, Grandfather or Uncle who also kicked the bucket votes there is a huge problem, If my friend who is Thai with a VISA to stay here in the states votes there is a problem. When all the Power Rangers and Disney princess votes there is a problem. Need I add my pets to the list of problems if they vote, I mean they are under age, With papers.

I mean seriously, we need ID for everything else!
Is it racist to require a driver's license? Or when opening a bank account? Is it racist when signing up for medicaid or social security? Wake up people!

[xdivision_whitey]

Misty Moonsilver

xdivision_whitey

Misty Moonsilver

How is voter ID racist?
Are you saying that the only people that can get IDs are white? Are we black people too stupid to get IDs? We don't qualify? We aren't good enough? Racist jerk.

Sadly some black even believe that. They cried so much about it now ID's are being passed out for free, on the tax payers dime.


IDs were suppose to help Keep the dead, felons, non citizens, fictional characters, and pet from voting. If BTK (Serial Killer in Ks) is voting there is a problem, If my late father, late sister, Grandfather or Uncle who also kicked the bucket votes there is a huge problem, If my friend who is Thai with a VISA to stay here in the states votes there is a problem. When all the Power Rangers and Disney princess votes there is a problem. Need I add my pets to the list of problems if they vote, I mean they are under age, With papers.

I mean seriously, we need ID for everything else!
Is it racist to require a driver's license? Or when opening a bank account? Is it racist when signing up for medicaid or social security? Wake up people!

You need one to get on a plane, Buy tabacco products, Spray paints, Cough medicines, porno, and many other things.

[Roy Cura]

Ratttking

Keltoi Samurai

Ratttking

I used to be a Democrat, but I got better. 3nodding

Al Franken's a senator? rofl

I'm a member of neither party.

Far as I'm concerned, we've got one party that thinks they're rebels when they're really just obstructionists, and another party that thinks they're freedom fighters when they're really just whiners.

But this shows once and for all, definitively, that Voter ID laws are ineffective, and if they're not motivated by functionality, then they must be motivated by race, so why would I vote for the racist party?

I mean, Hell, if we give the Democrats a supermajority in both houses of Congress and the Presidency again, they might be able to pass another gutted, watered-down version of a bill they initially wanted a different version of, but were prevented from passing the version they wanted because the Republicans were being big meanies and not agreeing with them.

Hell, if they take all the seats in Congress, and the next Presidency, then they'll have to start relying on the existence of Republican governors to justify why they aren't getting anything done.

Get rid of Republicans on the state level, and then they'll have to start blaming their ineffectiveness on Republican city councils.

Get rid of those, and they'll need to blame it on the fact that someone, somewhere voted for a Republican ( that lost, but the fact that someone voted for him will be enough to obstruct the Dems from doing anything ).

And maybe, once everyone is only voting for Democrats, maybe then they'll finally feel confident enough to actually do something. As it is, their crippling social anxiety that someone might not like them is just causing too many problems.

Neither? There are more than 2 parties. Are you registered to vote? If so, do you vote?

There are more than two parties.
The last time we had a president who wasn’t a Republican or Democrat was 1850.
Go figure.

[Keltoi Samurai]

Ratttking

Keltoi Samurai

Ratttking

I used to be a Democrat, but I got better. 3nodding

Al Franken's a senator? rofl

I'm a member of neither party.

Far as I'm concerned, we've got one party that thinks they're rebels when they're really just obstructionists, and another party that thinks they're freedom fighters when they're really just whiners.

But this shows once and for all, definitively, that Voter ID laws are ineffective, and if they're not motivated by functionality, then they must be motivated by race, so why would I vote for the racist party?

I mean, Hell, if we give the Democrats a supermajority in both houses of Congress and the Presidency again, they might be able to pass another gutted, watered-down version of a bill they initially wanted a different version of, but were prevented from passing the version they wanted because the Republicans were being big meanies and not agreeing with them.

Hell, if they take all the seats in Congress, and the next Presidency, then they'll have to start relying on the existence of Republican governors to justify why they aren't getting anything done.

Get rid of Republicans on the state level, and then they'll have to start blaming their ineffectiveness on Republican city councils.

Get rid of those, and they'll need to blame it on the fact that someone, somewhere voted for a Republican ( that lost, but the fact that someone voted for him will be enough to obstruct the Dems from doing anything ).

And maybe, once everyone is only voting for Democrats, maybe then they'll finally feel confident enough to actually do something. As it is, their crippling social anxiety that someone might not like them is just causing too many problems.

Neither? There are more than 2 parties. Are you registered to vote? If so, do you vote?

When I registered to vote, there were three options that I could go for. I chose "Independent," and just haven't felt the need to change that since more options were added.

Though, I do find myself voting for the West Virginia Mountain Party more often than any other ( it's a Green party affiliate ).

[Keltoi Samurai]

Omnileech

Quote:

Because non-citizens tended to favor Democrats (Obama won more than 80 percent of the votes of non-citizens in the 2008 CCES sample), we find that this participation was large enough to plausibly account for Democratic victories in a few close elections.

Obama won by a landslide by any measure in that election. It makes sense that he'd poll well with foreigners. He also polled well with kids, since we're polling people who can't vote, apparently.

Quote:

How many non-citizens participate in U.S. elections? More than 14 percent of non-citizens in both the 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote. Furthermore, some of these non-citizens voted. Our best guess, based upon extrapolations from the portion of the sample with a verified vote, is that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008 and 2.2 percent of non-citizens voted in 2010.
Estimated Voter Turnout by Non-Citizens
2008 2010
Self reported and/or verified 38 (11.3%) 13 (3.5%)
Self reported and verified 5 (1.5%) N.A.
Adjusted estimate 21 (6.4%) 8 (2.2%)

Because non-citizens tended to favor Democrats (Obama won more than 80 percent of the votes of non-citizens in the 2008 CCES sample), we find that this participation was large enough to plausibly account for Democratic victories in a few close elections. Non-citizen votes could have given Senate Democrats the pivotal 60th vote needed to overcome filibusters in order to pass health-care reform and other Obama administration priorities in the 111th Congress. Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) won election in 2008 with a victory margin of 312 votes. Votes cast by just 0.65 percent of Minnesota non-citizens could account for this margin. It is also possible that non-citizen votes were responsible for Obama’s 2008 victory in North Carolina. Obama won the state by 14,177 votes, so a turnout by 5.1 percent of North Carolina’s adult non-citizens would have provided this victory margin.

And that's just conjecture based on non-citizens somehow voting in improbably large margins in both high and low turnout elections. Who voted in 2008 and 2010 and who is registered to vote is both public knowledge, and if groups of people brazenly committed electoral fraud in large numbers why haven't they been prosecuted?

But of course logic and reason have no place when you blame non-citizens for every close defeat handed to Republicans.

I'm pretty sure that that "why haven't they been prosecuted" is rather fallacious here, like some veriant on an appeal to authority that falls flat when you realise that many times criminals manage to escape prosecution for one reason or another, and the reason they do is rather immaterial to the discussion at hand.

Non-citizens are registering to vote, and are voting. This is fact, but it's also not the topic of discussion.

The topic of discussion is that voter ID laws would do nothing to help the problem, since the study itself found that many of the people who voted illegally presented ID to do so, which indicates that the Republican approach is inherently racist, since not only would it not fix the problem of ineligible persons voting, it would also disproportionately prevent poor minority voters from casting their ballots while allowing the non-citizens to continue to vote.

Do please try to keep up, I know it's difficult.

[Ratttking]

Keltoi Samurai

Ratttking

Keltoi Samurai

Ratttking

I used to be a Democrat, but I got better. 3nodding

Al Franken's a senator? rofl

I'm a member of neither party.

Far as I'm concerned, we've got one party that thinks they're rebels when they're really just obstructionists, and another party that thinks they're freedom fighters when they're really just whiners.

But this shows once and for all, definitively, that Voter ID laws are ineffective, and if they're not motivated by functionality, then they must be motivated by race, so why would I vote for the racist party?

I mean, Hell, if we give the Democrats a supermajority in both houses of Congress and the Presidency again, they might be able to pass another gutted, watered-down version of a bill they initially wanted a different version of, but were prevented from passing the version they wanted because the Republicans were being big meanies and not agreeing with them.

Hell, if they take all the seats in Congress, and the next Presidency, then they'll have to start relying on the existence of Republican governors to justify why they aren't getting anything done.

Get rid of Republicans on the state level, and then they'll have to start blaming their ineffectiveness on Republican city councils.

Get rid of those, and they'll need to blame it on the fact that someone, somewhere voted for a Republican ( that lost, but the fact that someone voted for him will be enough to obstruct the Dems from doing anything ).

And maybe, once everyone is only voting for Democrats, maybe then they'll finally feel confident enough to actually do something. As it is, their crippling social anxiety that someone might not like them is just causing too many problems.

Neither? There are more than 2 parties. Are you registered to vote? If so, do you vote?

When I registered to vote, there were three options that I could go for. I chose "Independent," and just haven't felt the need to change that since more options were added.

Though, I do find myself voting for the West Virginia Mountain Party more often than any other ( it's a Green party affiliate ).

My BF is registered Independent. I'm registered Green now, and that took several tries before they took me off the rolls of the Dems.

[Ratttking]

Roy Cura

There are more political offices to vote for than just the presidency, and members of other parties than those 2 have held them.

[Omnileech]

Keltoi Samurai

Omnileech

Quote:

Because non-citizens tended to favor Democrats (Obama won more than 80 percent of the votes of non-citizens in the 2008 CCES sample), we find that this participation was large enough to plausibly account for Democratic victories in a few close elections.

Obama won by a landslide by any measure in that election. It makes sense that he'd poll well with foreigners. He also polled well with kids, since we're polling people who can't vote, apparently.

Quote:

How many non-citizens participate in U.S. elections? More than 14 percent of non-citizens in both the 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote. Furthermore, some of these non-citizens voted. Our best guess, based upon extrapolations from the portion of the sample with a verified vote, is that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008 and 2.2 percent of non-citizens voted in 2010.
Estimated Voter Turnout by Non-Citizens
2008 2010
Self reported and/or verified 38 (11.3%) 13 (3.5%)
Self reported and verified 5 (1.5%) N.A.
Adjusted estimate 21 (6.4%) 8 (2.2%)

Because non-citizens tended to favor Democrats (Obama won more than 80 percent of the votes of non-citizens in the 2008 CCES sample), we find that this participation was large enough to plausibly account for Democratic victories in a few close elections. Non-citizen votes could have given Senate Democrats the pivotal 60th vote needed to overcome filibusters in order to pass health-care reform and other Obama administration priorities in the 111th Congress. Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) won election in 2008 with a victory margin of 312 votes. Votes cast by just 0.65 percent of Minnesota non-citizens could account for this margin. It is also possible that non-citizen votes were responsible for Obama’s 2008 victory in North Carolina. Obama won the state by 14,177 votes, so a turnout by 5.1 percent of North Carolina’s adult non-citizens would have provided this victory margin.

And that's just conjecture based on non-citizens somehow voting in improbably large margins in both high and low turnout elections. Who voted in 2008 and 2010 and who is registered to vote is both public knowledge, and if groups of people brazenly committed electoral fraud in large numbers why haven't they been prosecuted?

But of course logic and reason have no place when you blame non-citizens for every close defeat handed to Republicans.

I'm pretty sure that that "why haven't they been prosecuted" is rather fallacious here, like some veriant on an appeal to authority that falls flat when you realise that many times criminals manage to escape prosecution for one reason or another, and the reason they do is rather immaterial to the discussion at hand.

Non-citizens are registering to vote, and are voting. This is fact, but it's also not the topic of discussion.

The topic of discussion is that voter ID laws would do nothing to help the problem, since the study itself found that many of the people who voted illegally presented ID to do so, which indicates that the Republican approach is inherently racist, since not only would it not fix the problem of ineligible persons voting, it would also disproportionately prevent poor minority voters from casting their ballots while allowing the non-citizens to continue to vote.

Do please try to keep up, I know it's difficult.

It's spelled "variant" and... not even close.

Quote:

An Appeal to Authority is a fallacy with the following form:

Person A is (claimed to be) an authority on subject S.
Person A makes claim C about subject S.
Therefore, C is true.

So I ask again, since you avoided the question, crying fallacy, that if Republicans are SO eager to find and prosecute electoral fraud, and based on a study's "guess" as they put it that fraud is a significant problem then why did Republicans seeking to validate their fears simply look up a list of people who voted in specific regions for specific elections and then cross-checked their citizenship? Both is public information and readily available.

To simplify it down for you it boils down to "If electoral fraud is a problem, then there should be verifiable evidence of it occurring, with enough VERIFIED instances to indicate a pattern."

And no s**t, the Republican party approach is inherently racist, it's almost as if they don't want minorities voting and don't really care if fraud is an issue at all. Honestly, have you SEEN their proposed policies on immigration and just about any other issue? How about how Republicans losing much of the "not-white" vote election after election?