Welcome to Gaia! ::

<3 </3

What Are You?

I'm a "Mighty" 0.56 56.0% [ 14 ]
I'm a "Jones" 0.44 44.0% [ 11 ]
Total Votes:[ 25 ]
< 1 2 3 4 >
Rogue Phoenix Fire's avatar

Witty Gaian

10,950 Points
  • Invisibility 100
  • Elocutionist 200
  • Tipsy 100
Ginnjii
Rogue Phoenix Fire
Mmm! Thanks! So are they forming couples names or what?


It seems that way.
Either that or baby names.


Baby names? I wonder which one could have the bun in the oven.
Gavyn the Mighty's avatar

Revered Inquisitor

Erynnis_Tristis
Gavyn the Mighty

As I said, the pack results thread gives us a good idea... something to go on. Looking at it from the standpoint of it being right or wrong, accurate or inaccurate... it is in all likelihood to be highly inaccurate, and nearly pointless to keep, solely due to the fact that you are incorporating likely not even 1% of the packs bought. While it does give us something good to go on, and a rough estimate of where things stand... which is a good thing... using it to suggest changes is illogical. There is no way that a small sample such as that can be considered statistically significant, save for pure chance. it can be a good representation, but not precise... not something to base potential changes off of.


Long term viability of the game most certainly hinges on keeping the clients engaged. Keeping the prices where they are, and keeping cards rare will do much more, IMO, for keeping clients (HoC players) engaged in the game, as opposed to making it really easy to get all cards and making them sit and wait for updates, like zOMG! did.

This is all about game continuity; making the game 'stale' like zOMG! got (which would happen if you could easily get all the cards), would cause a lot of people to stop playing... because they would have to wait for the major updates. Having to 'struggle' (which it isn't really a struggle, just couldn't think of a better word), and work to get cards, to complete your collection is something moer to keep the players interested... while the devs work on more updates. Keeping the cards rarer makes it so you have to keep working... it makes the game work and keeps it a viable entity for gaia.

Simply put, they rarity/price couplet is simply the correct way to go for this situation, regardless of how much (or how little) time it may take a given player to earn it; as it keeps plays interested in the game and allows for players to progress... while the game expends and grows slowly via updates.



I just wanted to pick up on a few things here and present a counterargument to them.

Firstly, while a small sample size may be subject to statistical variations, it does give the order of magnitute and can provide roughly accurate information. I think it's fairly representative that the chance of getting a rare or better card out of a gold pack is somewhere between 2-3 packs. And the chance of a 4 star card is between 6-7% and a 5 star card is around 2-3%.

Next you are arguing that nothing should change because if everyone could get all the cards too easily they'll disengage from HoC. Now I don't see anyone arguing that it should rain legendary cards on the playerbase. However, looking at the rough estimates above, realistically speaking, I'd like to ask how long would it take a player to obtain all 3, 4 and 5 star cards based on the above rough estimates?

There are currently 23 x 3*** cards, 13 x 4**** and 6 x 5***** cards. Just to get 6 five star cards (not guaranteeing that you'd have one of each) at roughly 3 per 100 packs, means about 200 packs. (200 packs would also average out to about 14 epic cards (again no guarantee of one of each) and about 120 rare cards, so you probably would have at least one of each 3 star card in that time. Taking as an average player earnings of 5k essence per day at 15k per pack, 200 packs would take approx. 600 days. Which works out to nearly two years. (I certainly hope the devs won't take that long before releasing an expansion to the cards.)

So I don't think you are justified in disregarding how long it might take for a player to earn rare cards. As it is it's more than a little ridiculous that based on the current information, to obtain 19 epic and legendary cards a player would need to invest nearly two years of play time. (And don't forget, still wouldn't be anywhere near guaranteed to have one of each.)



I have already said that it is fairly representative, yes... so i agree; But, to say that a small sample size is accurate, the 'be all, end all' and something to base solid decisions for changes.... that isn't right. while it may be a good representation, without knowing what things actually are... you can't logically call for a change. You can ask to know what specifically the numbers are (which they won't tell us), but you can't really ask for change (and have that asking be validated), because you simply do not have a good grasp on what things are, you merely have a representation.

Right now, it would likely take a few months to get all cards... depending on how [in] frequently you play. taking a few months is a good thing, because if it didn't take that long, you would have absolutely nothing to keep your interest while waiting for updates that could take months to arrive, as I've stated before.

I've been in the game for four months and have ~85% of the cards in the game; I think that is fairly adequate if not a bit to high (keep in mind this ratio will be lowered for new players, as I had access to the lovely Platinum packs). A lower ratio of playing time to cards obtain would likely be a good thing. want to get around it, pay real money... it will fund the game and also make it last longer.. a good thing... but certainly not pay to win (as even starter decks can take down level 80 players with access to nearly all cards).

15k per pack, yes. But, you don't have to use Gold packs; you can buy silver and bronze too. Also, Just because it would take 600 days (much closer to a year and a half, than two years).. doesn't mean much. That is on average. It could take much less time, much more time... you could have good luck... you could use real money (and fund the game), etc. Also, with the marketplace coming out in a few months... packs will be rendered relatively useless when it comes to obtaining all cards [but that is a whole separate argument/thread to be considered]. Again too, because of the small sample size.. I feel it is likely a bit higher than 2-3%; even if it is not it is still giving something to work for while be relatively fair (and again, the marketplace will render the ability to get 5* cards much easier).

In your arguments, you are blatantly ignoring the fact that a marketplace will be out. You are also assuming that the odds based on small sample sizes are accurate. While you can make these estimates, you completely ignore that fact... they may be a representation, but you cannot assure them. You also cannot account for luck, etc.

Also, I am not disregarding how long it takes. I know it will take a long time... but you are saying that Gold is the only option. it isn't. You can get cards out of anything. Also, just because there are odds, doesn't mean you can't be lucky. Someone got two 5* in 5 Bronze packs in one day for crying out loud.

Yes, it is meant to be tough, but there is currently a balance. If it is lowered, it becomes to easy to get rare cards, and defeats the purpose of them being rare.

Again, so what if it may take 600 days to 'be assured' at 6 rares, as you suggest. In one hundred days, 3 months time, roughly.. you are nearly assured of one 5* in your argument. I feel that is good... because in that time you are getting several 3* and a few 4* most likely too. It is something to work for, something to keep you interested while they make more updates... you won't get all of them in your scenario, sure... but that isn't a bad thing since you still have something to keep working for while those new updates roll out.

You also assume that players want all cards, which i was also using as an example... but you are taking it one step farther. Players don't necessarily want that... they just want to complete a good deck... that does not mean getting every single 4* and 5*... that also has a huge factor in this... so it likely wouldn't take your 600 days, especially once the Marketplace is out.

When the Marketplace is out too, you won't need to care about packs, because someone, somewhere will have the card you want, and you could save up and buy it from them... rendering the 600 days an arbitrary number... something that you wouldn't have to strive for. Just save up essence and buy. As more and more people play, more and more people will have cards... and essence is easy to make... meaning that it will be much quicker to get the cards you want from the marketplace; I don't feel inflation will be so bad as to the point where cards will be millions of essence, because you have to consider that... just because a card is a 5*, doesn't mean someone uses it or wants to keep it. Similarly, you have to consider that people don't always want full collections of cards... they just want certain cards to complete there deck, regardless of rarity (for instance, I want an Eldwyn and a LPC).. my deck will be done shortly after the marketplace comes out, even if I don't spend anymore on packs right now.

Simply put, you can't dismiss something as being out of reach for a year and a half... based on odds we don't know are correct and based on the fact that cards will be even more easily attainable in roughly 3 months (Marketplace). Until that marketplace comes out, they need to keep it tougher to obtain and keep the cards rare. Right now, it is balances on time/effort/essence/rarity. Any changes to lessen it hurt the long term viability of the game, even if you feel it will take 600 days to possibly complete a collection (for most players, it surely won't.. they will likely have everything they want [which is most likely not every card] by early summer... mainly because of the Marketplace).


Guys, seriously... if there is a thread or a post around here that you don't like... leave it be. Spreading hate and trolling people has no place in this community. Certain people may have been in the wrong, but when you troll or hate on them you get in the wrong too. Don't prolong it or add to it; let it go. If it is blatant trolling, a misplaced thread or anything that violates the ToS, report it and move along. Don't feed the trolls and don't add to the hatred. This is a nice, clean and happy community. Please, don't dirty it.

I am Gavyn the Mighty and I approve of this message.
Gavyn the Mighty's avatar

Revered Inquisitor

Erogenous Jones

Well, you have to admit that it has a certain "ring" to it. wink

Of course "Erogenous the Mighty", has a certain flair as well. rofl

Certianly better than "Gavyn the Jones".... stare



LMAO. rofl


Guys, seriously... if there is a thread or a post around here that you don't like... leave it be. Spreading hate and trolling people has no place in this community. Certain people may have been in the wrong, but when you troll or hate on them you get in the wrong too. Don't prolong it or add to it; let it go. If it is blatant trolling, a misplaced thread or anything that violates the ToS, report it and move along. Don't feed the trolls and don't add to the hatred. This is a nice, clean and happy community. Please, don't dirty it.

I am Gavyn the Mighty and I approve of this message.
Shintouyu's avatar

Heroic Lunatic

18,750 Points
  • Healer 50
  • Survivor 150
  • Hunter 50
While I'm pretty sure we're never going to get anywhere near the Law Of Large Numbers, I'm also pretty sure that what we have is a representative census which is basically a more or less general trend.

That is to say, it's not absolutely accurate but its not something easily discredited either.
Ginnjii's avatar

Conversationalist

Rogue Phoenix Fire
Baby names? I wonder which one could have the bun in the oven.


I guess we'll find out.

Soon after a name has been decided on for the shipping.
Rogue Phoenix Fire's avatar

Witty Gaian

10,950 Points
  • Invisibility 100
  • Elocutionist 200
  • Tipsy 100
Ginnjii
Rogue Phoenix Fire
Baby names? I wonder which one could have the bun in the oven.


I guess we'll find out.

Soon after a name has been decided on for the shipping.


Hmmm. *noms popcorn* So many choices!
gataka's avatar

Familiar Lunatic

@GetAllTheCards: GATAKATCHEM'ALL-- Erm, one of the foundations of the TCG genre is that you don't have all the cards. I mean, as I've said before, get cards to play, don't play to get cards, it's not THE goal, and blablabla.

What is THE goal you may ask? By THE goal I mean the "official" one. Each has his own entering.

Now that's a very interesting question and I know a certain Frog with a lot to say on the subject, likely along the lines of "either no such or many pointing in differing directions. Definitely not clear" xD

Regardless, pretty confident it's not GATAKATCHEM'ALL!! *coughcough* so the drops shouldn't be adjusted for that.

I wouldn't make such a game based on luck either: diminishing returns and all, it'll just suck xP
Junett's avatar

Shapeshifter

Are you guys complaining about my thread in another thread? emotion_facepalm

If you have a problem, please just let me know. I already said I would close my thread.

Statistics are only used as an estimator of the true population mean. There's no way that they'll come close to what it actually is. Statistics are only for estimating or for getting a general idea of how things look. I'll put a disclaimer on my thread that it's probably not accurate. Especially how smaller sample sizes are less accurate.

As for packs, I don't understand why complain. It's like you all complain about every change. I think the changes are well deserved and the prices are pretty fair.
Gavyn the Mighty's avatar

Revered Inquisitor

Junett
Are you guys complaining about my thread in another thread? emotion_facepalm

If you have a problem, please just let me know. I already said I would close my thread.

Statistics are only used as an estimator of the true population mean. There's no way that they'll come close to what it actually is. Statistics are only for estimating or for getting a general idea of how things look. I'll put a disclaimer on my thread that it's probably not accurate. Especially how smaller sample sizes are less accurate.

As for packs, I don't understand why complain. It's like you all complain about every change. I think the changes are well deserved and the prices are pretty fair.


Not so much complaining about your thread (on my end), as it is complaining about using your thread as justification for changes. I personally love your thread (hence my contributions to it) and I feel it gives us a good baseline; as I've stated 3 prior times here. smile

With regards to a disclaimer... I don't think you need one, as it should be fairly obvious; that wouldn't really warrant a disclaimer, IMO... but who knows. sad

As far as the bold text, I concur... well, I concur with your entire post; ha ha.


Guys, seriously... if there is a thread or a post around here that you don't like... leave it be. Spreading hate and trolling people has no place in this community. Certain people may have been in the wrong, but when you troll or hate on them you get in the wrong too. Don't prolong it or add to it; let it go. If it is blatant trolling, a misplaced thread or anything that violates the ToS, report it and move along. Don't feed the trolls and don't add to the hatred. This is a nice, clean and happy community. Please, don't dirty it.

I am Gavyn the Mighty and I approve of this message.
Erogenous Jones's avatar

Combative Codger

12,900 Points
  • Protector of Cuteness 150
  • Object of Affection 150
  • Partygoer 500
Rogue Phoenix Fire
Ginnjii
Rogue Phoenix Fire
...What did I just walk in on here?


Shh.
Pull up a seat and watch.

Popcorn?


Mmm! Thanks! So are they forming couples names or what?


Nah...
When have you ever seen an actual couple talk this much? wink
Erogenous Jones's avatar

Combative Codger

12,900 Points
  • Protector of Cuteness 150
  • Object of Affection 150
  • Partygoer 500
Junett
Are you guys complaining about my thread in another thread? emotion_facepalm

If you have a problem, please just let me know. I already said I would close my thread.

Statistics are only used as an estimator of the true population mean. There's no way that they'll come close to what it actually is. Statistics are only for estimating or for getting a general idea of how things look. I'll put a disclaimer on my thread that it's probably not accurate. Especially how smaller sample sizes are less accurate.

As for packs, I don't understand why complain. It's like you all complain about every change. I think the changes are well deserved and the prices are pretty fair.


Whoa there!
I'm pretty sure that neither Gavyn nor I were complaining about your Topic.
I know I for one greatly appreciate your compiling the results for us, and I happen to think that they're probably fairly representative of reality, AND useful to a lot of people who might be trying to decide where to spend their Essence most effectively.
I wouldn't be updating and posting my spreadsheet version there on a daily basis if I didn't. wink

Where Gavyn and I differ is on our opinions regarding price, and it's me that's sounding the clarion call for a lower price for Gold Packs, for all the reasons mentioned in my many WoT posts here.
It's actually been a very polite and spirited debate, and I have to admit to enjoying it. smile
Sagebomb's avatar

Aged Prophet

17,150 Points
  • 50 Wins 150
  • PAAANNNTTTSSS 100
  • Perfect Attendance 400
In after... (My times means I miss all the good arguments XD)

In terms of the threads stats, I believe the gold packs are closer to thier accuracy as there are more of us sharing every gold pack result.

I believe silver and bronze however are skewed upwards as it seems there are several lower level users who only seem to reporting the good packs they get and not all the packs they get. Ultimatly forcing the stats in the bronze and silver packs to be inflated. There may be some in the gold as well, but I believe the gold stats are more representive of the true nature.
Erynnis_Tristis's avatar

Moonlight Bunny

22,500 Points
  • Bunny Hoarder 150
  • Over Easy 100
  • Sunny Side Up 100
Gavyn the Mighty
Erynnis_Tristis
Gavyn the Mighty

As I said, the pack results thread gives us a good idea... something to go on. Looking at it from the standpoint of it being right or wrong, accurate or inaccurate... it is in all likelihood to be highly inaccurate, and nearly pointless to keep, solely due to the fact that you are incorporating likely not even 1% of the packs bought. While it does give us something good to go on, and a rough estimate of where things stand... which is a good thing... using it to suggest changes is illogical. There is no way that a small sample such as that can be considered statistically significant, save for pure chance. it can be a good representation, but not precise... not something to base potential changes off of.


Long term viability of the game most certainly hinges on keeping the clients engaged. Keeping the prices where they are, and keeping cards rare will do much more, IMO, for keeping clients (HoC players) engaged in the game, as opposed to making it really easy to get all cards and making them sit and wait for updates, like zOMG! did.

This is all about game continuity; making the game 'stale' like zOMG! got (which would happen if you could easily get all the cards), would cause a lot of people to stop playing... because they would have to wait for the major updates. Having to 'struggle' (which it isn't really a struggle, just couldn't think of a better word), and work to get cards, to complete your collection is something moer to keep the players interested... while the devs work on more updates. Keeping the cards rarer makes it so you have to keep working... it makes the game work and keeps it a viable entity for gaia.

Simply put, they rarity/price couplet is simply the correct way to go for this situation, regardless of how much (or how little) time it may take a given player to earn it; as it keeps plays interested in the game and allows for players to progress... while the game expends and grows slowly via updates.



I just wanted to pick up on a few things here and present a counterargument to them.

Firstly, while a small sample size may be subject to statistical variations, it does give the order of magnitute and can provide roughly accurate information. I think it's fairly representative that the chance of getting a rare or better card out of a gold pack is somewhere between 2-3 packs. And the chance of a 4 star card is between 6-7% and a 5 star card is around 2-3%.

Next you are arguing that nothing should change because if everyone could get all the cards too easily they'll disengage from HoC. Now I don't see anyone arguing that it should rain legendary cards on the playerbase. However, looking at the rough estimates above, realistically speaking, I'd like to ask how long would it take a player to obtain all 3, 4 and 5 star cards based on the above rough estimates?

There are currently 23 x 3*** cards, 13 x 4**** and 6 x 5***** cards. Just to get 6 five star cards (not guaranteeing that you'd have one of each) at roughly 3 per 100 packs, means about 200 packs. (200 packs would also average out to about 14 epic cards (again no guarantee of one of each) and about 120 rare cards, so you probably would have at least one of each 3 star card in that time. Taking as an average player earnings of 5k essence per day at 15k per pack, 200 packs would take approx. 600 days. Which works out to nearly two years. (I certainly hope the devs won't take that long before releasing an expansion to the cards.)

So I don't think you are justified in disregarding how long it might take for a player to earn rare cards. As it is it's more than a little ridiculous that based on the current information, to obtain 19 epic and legendary cards a player would need to invest nearly two years of play time. (And don't forget, still wouldn't be anywhere near guaranteed to have one of each.)



I have already said that it is fairly representative, yes... so i agree; But, to say that a small sample size is accurate, the 'be all, end all' and something to base solid decisions for changes.... that isn't right. while it may be a good representation, without knowing what things actually are... you can't logically call for a change. You can ask to know what specifically the numbers are (which they won't tell us), but you can't really ask for change (and have that asking be validated), because you simply do not have a good grasp on what things are, you merely have a representation.


Right now, it would likely take a few months to get all cards... depending on how [in] frequently you play. taking a few months is a good thing, because if it didn't take that long, you would have absolutely nothing to keep your interest while waiting for updates that could take months to arrive, as I've stated before.

I've been in the game for four months and have ~85% of the cards in the game; I think that is fairly adequate if not a bit to high (keep in mind this ratio will be lowered for new players, as I had access to the lovely Platinum packs). A lower ratio of playing time to cards obtain would likely be a good thing. want to get around it, pay real money... it will fund the game and also make it last longer.. a good thing... but certainly not pay to win (as even starter decks can take down level 80 players with access to nearly all cards).

15k per pack, yes. But, you don't have to use Gold packs; you can buy silver and bronze too. Also, Just because it would take 600 days (much closer to a year and a half, than two years).. doesn't mean much. That is on average. It could take much less time, much more time... you could have good luck... you could use real money (and fund the game), etc. Also, with the marketplace coming out in a few months... packs will be rendered relatively useless when it comes to obtaining all cards [but that is a whole separate argument/thread to be considered]. Again too, because of the small sample size.. I feel it is likely a bit higher than 2-3%; even if it is not it is still giving something to work for while be relatively fair (and again, the marketplace will render the ability to get 5* cards much easier).

In your arguments, you are blatantly ignoring the fact that a marketplace will be out. You are also assuming that the odds based on small sample sizes are accurate. While you can make these estimates, you completely ignore that fact... they may be a representation, but you cannot assure them. You also cannot account for luck, etc.

Also, I am not disregarding how long it takes. I know it will take a long time... but you are saying that Gold is the only option. it isn't. You can get cards out of anything. Also, just because there are odds, doesn't mean you can't be lucky. Someone got two 5* in 5 Bronze packs in one day for crying out loud.

/snipped for length...


At the risk of sounding disagreeable, I'm afraid I'm going to have to disagree with you. For two reasons. Firstly, as you already know, Gaia will never publicly state the odds on chances anywhere on the site. But this does not lead to the conclusion that feedback or suggested changes are 'invalidated'. I'm going to continue to provide feedback to Gaia (and ask for changes) based on the best information available. If my information is substantially in error Gaia always has the option of correcting that information. Secondly, it's not necessary to know the exact odds to three decimal places in order to have a grasp on the likelihood of obtaining a card. From a statistical viewpoint there are always going to be individual variations, this doesn't invalidate the results taken as a whole.

I think your distinction between a representation and reality to be arbitrary and contradictory. You admit that the sample is representative of the odds, but then argue that because it's not absolutely correct no conclusions can be drawn from it. And yet you assert that all the cards can be obtained within a few months, without any logical basis at all. (Your own data is invalidated by the fact that you obtained cards from a pack that no longer exists.) So if you are going to present an arbitrary figure of 'a few months', please explain how you got to this estimated timeframe without recourse to 'a mere representation' and in the absence of actual information from the devs?

600 days was an approximation, treating it as an absolute figure is completely beside the point. Of course some players will get better cards sooner, and some later, but it doesn't matter if it's 600, or 575, or 500 or 400, the point is that based on the best information we have available it's not going to be 'soon', it's not going to be in a 'few' months, and it's certainly going to be more than enough time for the devs to introduce new content (new cards) to the game, unless you think it's going to take more than a year for them to do that.

I'm not blatantly ignoring anything, I know the marketplace is supposed to be introduced. It's completely irrelevent to the discussion at hand. I would point out that years of experience dealing with virtual marketplaces on Gaia has taught me one thing, 90% of everything is crap and the other 10% is more than most people can afford. The marketplace isn't going to be an endless source of rare cards, since quantities are still going to be determined by pack odds. I think people are overestimating the impact the market will have, in the short term at least.

And one final point, in your initial argument you stated that if players could get all the cards too easily it would be a disincentive to keep playing. When I pointed out in response that getting all the cards would take a lot longer than you claim, your response is that not everyone wants all the cards. This is a major contradiction of your initial argument. If players don't want all the cards then arguing that having all the cards would remove incentive to play is an invalid argument, it shouldn't make any difference at all.

Solomon Hellwing's avatar

Malevolent Warlord

11,100 Points
  • Invisibility 100
  • Ultimate Player 200
  • Olympian 200
hmm I also think that this game shouldn't be a "play to get cards" game but rather a "get cards to play game" and dont honestly think that just because someone has all the cards means that they will stop playing, lets take yu-gi-oh for an example;

there are a few online sites where you can play the yu-gi-oh card game online vs other players and you have access to ALL cards without ever spending a dime, and those sites have thousands of users on it just because they enjoy playing the game and using the cards they enjoy (which is why im saddened that nerfs in this game exists v.v it take the fun out of your favorite cards).

but the point is that this game will still be fun even if you had every card because you should enjoy the game using your favorite cards rather then trying to farm the game to get your favorite cards, which is why a guaranteed rare like in every other TCG IMO is a great idea.

((on a side note, there are OP cards in every TCG -yes some of those get banned- but i dont see any card in this game "worth" banning, but they also have a limited list, so perhaps instead of nerfing cards, if the card seems too OP maybe just limit it to one or two copies? just food for thought))
Erogenous Jones's avatar

Combative Codger

12,900 Points
  • Protector of Cuteness 150
  • Object of Affection 150
  • Partygoer 500
Gavyn the Mighty

junett


I realise that, as an idea, this one's probably a non-starter, but what would you guys think of asking Pan if he could tell us their results from Pack Purchases?
They must have the information for Pack purchases and what they've dropped somewhere, and that would give an idea as to how accurate our samplings are.

Of course, giving us that information would be tantamount to them giving us the percentages for each drop type, which Gaia never does, so it probably wouldn't happen, but it never hurts to ask, right? wink

Failing that, maybe we could just ask them if the results we're showing in Junett's Topic are close to theirs.

I personally think that Junett's number are, for the most part, probably fairly representative of what's going on, although as has been suggested, Silver and Bronze might be skewed upwards somewhat when it comes to Legendarys simply because people are far more likely to come running to the Forum to share their good luck than they are to bemoan their failures.
That being said, when I look at the percentages for the rest, I have to think that the numbers are probably pretty good, if only because if I were establishing drop rates, what Junett is showing is pretty much what I would set up.

Quick Reply

Submit
Manage Your Items
Other Stuff
Get GCash
Offers
Get Items
More Items
Where Everyone Hangs Out
Other Community Areas
Virtual Spaces
Fun Stuff
Gaia's Games