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Erogenous Jones's avatar

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Gavyn the Mighty
The thing is...

Just because those are the odds we helped record in Junett's thread, does not mean that they are correct or even remotely accurate.

It all depends on everyone giving their results, good or bad. Even if everyone that has posted in that thread has said what they have gotten in every pack... there is a number of peope, far larger than those who posted, who have not posted their results.

Simply put, in a game with so many players... only having 10 or so contribute results will always be a small sample size, even if they were to buy thousands and thousands of packs... because in comparison to the amount bought as a whole by everyone would be so many times more than what those 10 people bought.

I would not doubt if the odds in that thread, while a fairly good representation, are way off; that the odds as described by Pan actually hold true. Why would they say that is how it works if it doesn't actually work like that? Answer is, they wouldn't.

It just falls on small sample size not relaying the proper odds to us.

While I agree 15k is time consuming to get and can be tough... it is meant to be. They want the cards to be rare... they want some fails mixed in so you keep working at the game. They simply don't want everyone to easily be able to get every single card, etc.... because once that happens...

It becomes like when someone got all the rings and got them all to 10.0 (later 12.0 after a brief revitalization of the game) in zOMG!... people stop playing and the game dies. Sure... zOMG! was partly to do with how infrequently updates were put in... but that infrequency just went to show how bad saturation was. Once everyone had everything they could get, a lot stopped playing (the ones who did play, mostly did it to earn more gold).

If people were able to get all of the cards, they would likely stop playing shortly thereafter, because a lot of their drive to play will be gone (since this game isn't as good for making gold as zOMG! or BG).

This is what is being avoided by actually keeping some cards rare, hence the price being 'high', while still attainable for those who actually go at the game a lot (hence a profit for gaia... which the devs want you to play a lot... else there would be little purpose to even making the game). Our small sample size of data simply cannot justify any potential price changes with respect to the differences between packs... couple that with the rarity aspect, and there is no reason at all for prices to change.

I trust them that the odds between the packs are where they say they are, and also agree with keeping the prices 'high' to ensure rarity stays in check.


Guys, seriously... if there is a thread or a post around here that you don't like... leave it be. Spreading hate and trolling people has no place in this community. Certain people may have been in the wrong, but when you troll or hate on them you get in the wrong too. Don't prolong it or add to it; let it go. If it is blatant trolling, a misplaced thread or anything that violates the ToS, report it and move along. Don't feed the trolls and don't add to the hatred. This is a nice, clean and happy community. Please, don't dirty it.

I am Gavyn the Mighty and I approve of this message.


I'm not questioning Pan or Grace's veracity, and I readily admit that any system that is dependent on anecdotal data is suspect in and of itself.
That being said, if we extrapolate your position to it's logical terminus, there's really no point in us keeping drop rate statistics ourselves, because the sample size will always be small, and the information entered, subject to errors and omissions, and I'm not sure that I entirely agree. (note the italicised "entirely" wink .
Polling companies make their living from polling a small, representative segment of the population, and aside from the odd notable exception), they are generally fairly accurate.
I kinda think that the basic results we have right now, showing the RoB rate for Gold to be roughly twice that of Silver, are probably pretty good, and as I mentioned out of the gate, I have no problem with those rates.
I just think that the price should be double that of Silver as well, in keeping with Pan's earlier statement.
I appreciate tha analogy between HoC and zOMG!.
As someone who loved zOMG! immensely, I would hate to see HoC follow the same ignominious path.
That being said, what killed zOMG!, imo, as much as the ability to monetize it, was the failure to provide it with sufficient updates to keep people playing.
Not being a developer, I don't know which would be harder to create new content for....zOMG!, which would require new environments and new NPC's, or HoC which will require more Cards on a regular basis.
All I know is that the long-term viability of any property is going to depend heavily on keeping its clients engaged.
New content is definitely a big part of that, but so is making the ability to regularly progress through it.
By making success the sole pervue of the people who have substantial amounts of time to dedicate to what is, after all, a game, I think Gaia runs the risk of dis-enfranchising the people who don't, but would still like to play and advance.
I honestly don't know the value of that constituency, but I would have to guess that it would be considerable, and to alienate them would, imo, not be good for the game.
10,000 Essence is not a trifling amount, and for many, represents several hours of play time.

I guess it's a question of philosophy....craft the game for the Masses, and hope for small amounts of revenue, multiplied many times over, or make it require serious time and effort, and hope that the revenue generated by those who are able to dedicate that time and effort will be also willing to dedicate the money to succeed.

I don't have access to Gaia's accounting department, so any suppositions I would make as to the efficacy of either strategy would be simply that...supposition.

I'm just applying the principle of mass production to the situation....sell more of an object at a lower profit margin and ultimately, you make more than by selling fewer at a higher profit margin.
Erogenous Jones's avatar

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gataka
Shintouyu
gataka
Erogenous Jones
gataka
Shintouyu
That's not up to date (Nov)...
Perhaps, but I can't see why the philosophy behind it should be any different now than it was at the time.
.....but that's not "twice the chance, twice the price." xD
Well, it should be 'Twice the price, double the chance.'

But either way, it means proportional to the price... Which hasn't changed, since they're still doing things proportionately.
Yaya, but quote says:
    " A pack that costs twice as much should be more than twice as good "

As in 'Twice the price, more than double the chance', which, per the Pan quote I dug up, actually happens to be close to true right now...sort of xD


OK...now I see what you're saying.
Even if I question your math. wink

As of this morning, the RoB rate for Gold is 68.67% according to our stats.
The RoB rate for Silver is 29.41.
Rounding both number up for ease of multiplication, to 69% and 30%, we arrive at a drop rate for Gold which is 2.3 times that of Silver, whereas the price for Gold vs Silver is bang on three times the price.

Like I keep saying, I'm comfortable with the drop rates. I think they're probably quite fair, and wouldn't ask for them to be increased.
I'm also surprisingly comfortable with our numbers, simply because, to me at least, they seem reasonable, and would hopefully achieve the aspirations of players and Gaia alike.

I'd just like to see the prices more accurately reflect the probabilities.
I honestly think it would be good for everyone involved.
Gavyn the Mighty's avatar

Revered Inquisitor

Erogenous Jones
Gavyn the Mighty
The thing is...

Just because those are the odds we helped record in Junett's thread, does not mean that they are correct or even remotely accurate.

It all depends on everyone giving their results, good or bad. Even if everyone that has posted in that thread has said what they have gotten in every pack... there is a number of peope, far larger than those who posted, who have not posted their results.

Simply put, in a game with so many players... only having 10 or so contribute results will always be a small sample size, even if they were to buy thousands and thousands of packs... because in comparison to the amount bought as a whole by everyone would be so many times more than what those 10 people bought.

I would not doubt if the odds in that thread, while a fairly good representation, are way off; that the odds as described by Pan actually hold true. Why would they say that is how it works if it doesn't actually work like that? Answer is, they wouldn't.

It just falls on small sample size not relaying the proper odds to us.

While I agree 15k is time consuming to get and can be tough... it is meant to be. They want the cards to be rare... they want some fails mixed in so you keep working at the game. They simply don't want everyone to easily be able to get every single card, etc.... because once that happens...

It becomes like when someone got all the rings and got them all to 10.0 (later 12.0 after a brief revitalization of the game) in zOMG!... people stop playing and the game dies. Sure... zOMG! was partly to do with how infrequently updates were put in... but that infrequency just went to show how bad saturation was. Once everyone had everything they could get, a lot stopped playing (the ones who did play, mostly did it to earn more gold).

If people were able to get all of the cards, they would likely stop playing shortly thereafter, because a lot of their drive to play will be gone (since this game isn't as good for making gold as zOMG! or BG).

This is what is being avoided by actually keeping some cards rare, hence the price being 'high', while still attainable for those who actually go at the game a lot (hence a profit for gaia... which the devs want you to play a lot... else there would be little purpose to even making the game). Our small sample size of data simply cannot justify any potential price changes with respect to the differences between packs... couple that with the rarity aspect, and there is no reason at all for prices to change.

I trust them that the odds between the packs are where they say they are, and also agree with keeping the prices 'high' to ensure rarity stays in check.


Guys, seriously... if there is a thread or a post around here that you don't like... leave it be. Spreading hate and trolling people has no place in this community. Certain people may have been in the wrong, but when you troll or hate on them you get in the wrong too. Don't prolong it or add to it; let it go. If it is blatant trolling, a misplaced thread or anything that violates the ToS, report it and move along. Don't feed the trolls and don't add to the hatred. This is a nice, clean and happy community. Please, don't dirty it.

I am Gavyn the Mighty and I approve of this message.


I'm not questioning Pan or Grace's veracity, and I readily admit that any system that is dependent on anecdotal data is suspect in and of itself.
That being said, if we extrapolate your position to it's logical terminus, there's really no point in us keeping drop rate statistics ourselves, because the sample size will always be small, and the information entered, subject to errors and omissions, and I'm not sure that I entirely agree. (note the italicised "entirely" wink .
Polling companies make their living from polling a small, representative segment of the population, and aside from the odd notable exception), they are generally fairly accurate.
I kinda think that the basic results we have right now, showing the RoB rate for Gold to be roughly twice that of Silver, are probably pretty good, and as I mentioned out of the gate, I have no problem with those rates.
I just think that the price should be double that of Silver as well, in keeping with Pan's earlier statement.
I appreciate tha analogy between HoC and zOMG!.
As someone who loved zOMG! immensely, I would hate to see HoC follow the same ignominious path.
That being said, what killed zOMG!, imo, as much as the ability to monetize it, was the failure to provide it with sufficient updates to keep people playing.
Not being a developer, I don't know which would be harder to create new content for....zOMG!, which would require new environments and new NPC's, or HoC which will require more Cards on a regular basis.
All I know is that the long-term viability of any property is going to depend heavily on keeping its clients engaged.
New content is definitely a big part of that, but so is making the ability to regularly progress through it.
By making success the sole pervue of the people who have substantial amounts of time to dedicate to what is, after all, a game, I think Gaia runs the risk of dis-enfranchising the people who don't, but would still like to play and advance.
I honestly don't know the value of that constituency, but I would have to guess that it would be considerable, and to alienate them would, imo, not be good for the game.
10,000 Essence is not a trifling amount, and for many, represents several hours of play time.

I guess it's a question of philosophy....craft the game for the Masses, and hope for small amounts of revenue, multiplied many times over, or make it require serious time and effort, and hope that the revenue generated by those who are able to dedicate that time and effort will be also willing to dedicate the money to succeed.

I don't have access to Gaia's accounting department, so any suppositions I would make as to the efficacy of either strategy would be simply that...supposition.

I'm just applying the principle of mass production to the situation....sell more of an object at a lower profit margin and ultimately, you make more than by selling fewer at a higher profit margin.



As I said, the pack results thread gives us a good idea... something to go on. Looking at it from the standpoint of it being right or wrong, accurate or inaccurate... it is in all likelihood to be highly inaccurate, and nearly pointless to keep, solely due to the fact that you are incorporating likely not even 1% of the packs bought. While it does give us something good to go on, and a rough estimate of where things stand... which is a good thing... using it to suggest changes is illogical. There is no way that a small sample such as that can be considered statistically significant, save for pure chance. it can be a good representation, but not precise... not something to base potential changes off of.

Polling companies make a good living and are fairly accurate? Really?

Like the polling in the last US presidential election... the exit polls... which were giving a lot of States to Romney... when after all the votes came in Obama got the majority? Polling like on a game show such as family feud that uses 100 people? Or you could take case studies for a new drug... similar to polling... using the results on 500 people to say whether a new drug is good or not... and getting FDA recognition; they may get recognition... but on samples so small... 500 people out of 7+Billion worldwide... it makes no statistical sense. Sure, you could mean other polling scenarios entirely... but again... just because these things are successful, does not mean that they are statistically significant or valid. Just because someone says something is valid (i.e. polling companies), does not mean they have a substantial amount of data backing them on their opinions.

Polling FAQ: Just briefly reading through this... a state electoral poll gets 500-1000 valid interviews... the average state population is 6.25 million people. If you assume only half of those to be of voting age (which is a horrible assumption, as it is much higher... that is still over 3 million people. 1000 interviews is less than .01 percent of the average population of a given state. Just because these are 'valid interviews' and may predict stuff accurately, does not mean that they are statistically significant or that there is any valid/substantial reasoning to assume these results are correct. This is just one example of small sample size. It doesn't really matter if poll companies make a good living out of it, or how their results show... most simply have fair to little data to make anything more than an educated guess as to what the limited poll numbers represent. (Note how they specifically mention undersampling, i.e. Small Sample Size... specifically at the end of the article)

Switching gears, yes lack of sufficient updates did kill it [zOMG!], I said as much. Without sufficient updates, having all the rings and having them all maxed out meant that there was little more to do. If you had all cards right now, at this very minute... with the rate new updates for this game are coming out... do you really think it would keep your interest anymore than zOMG! did? I don't think so... not for me at least. Sure.. it would be fun for a week or two... but games like this still take time to come out with new updates, even if the dev team is as dedicated as ours. Hence, they have to slow the game down, so to speak... keep it so there is more to play for while they work on progressive updates that will continue to keep you interested.

Long term viability of the game most certainly hinges on keeping the clients engaged. Keeping the prices where they are, and keeping cards rare will do much more, IMO, for keeping clients (HoC players) engaged in the game, as opposed to making it really easy to get all cards and making them sit and wait for updates, like zOMG! did.

This is all about game continuity; making the game 'stale' like zOMG! got (which would happen if you could easily get all the cards), would cause a lot of people to stop playing... because they would have to wait for the major updates. Having to 'struggle' (which it isn't really a struggle, just couldn't think of a better word), and work to get cards, to complete your collection is something moer to keep the players interested... while the devs work on more updates. Keeping the cards rarer makes it so you have to keep working... it makes the game work and keeps it a viable entity for gaia.

Again, JMO... but to me, it makes sense.

EDIT: I should also note, the 10,000 essence being several hours of play time thing... I see that as good. It may be tougher to get that much essence, or even 15k... but the payout is usually good (judging by our vastly undersampled odds). There is still the drive there for players to keep playing and to earn that essence to get the better cards. Sure, it can be cumbersome or tiring... but players are still staying interested in the game. They wouldn't be if they simply had to sit and wait for new updates, with nothing more they could do to make progress in the game. Having rare cards to gain gives players that progress while we wait for updates. Spending several hours on the game, while it may not look good from your standpoint, is good for the game... it keeps players playing, and has them playing a lot.

Simply put, they rarity/price couplet is simply the correct way to go for this situation, regardless of how much (or how little) time it may take a given player to earn it; as it keeps plays interested in the game and allows for players to progress... while the game expends and grows slowly via updates.


Guys, seriously... if there is a thread or a post around here that you don't like... leave it be. Spreading hate and trolling people has no place in this community. Certain people may have been in the wrong, but when you troll or hate on them you get in the wrong too. Don't prolong it or add to it; let it go. If it is blatant trolling, a misplaced thread or anything that violates the ToS, report it and move along. Don't feed the trolls and don't add to the hatred. This is a nice, clean and happy community. Please, don't dirty it.

I am Gavyn the Mighty and I approve of this message.
gataka's avatar

Familiar Lunatic

Erogenous Jones

I'd just like to see the prices more accurately reflect the probabilities.
I honestly think it would be good for everyone involved.
Welll, I'd like our probabilities to reflect the prices ; D

Really, I don't remember the math well... don't really have to either, just google up a sample size calculator, there's a bunch, mighty convenient o3o

Thing is... takes about a 1k - 1.5K samples, depending, before we can really be sure... that'll take a while xD
Gavyn the Mighty's avatar

Revered Inquisitor

gataka
Erogenous Jones

Thing is... takes about a 1k - 1.5K samples, depending, before we can really be sure... that'll take a while xD



Even then 1k -1.5k is still a small sample if you go with the fact that only ~10 people are giving their drops; when I assume there are about 1000 players playing. You are still only getting roughly 1% of the packs bought by the whole population... even if you do get up to the 1k-1.5k mark, with the current amount of people submitting results. It will be a good estimate, sure; but, you won't be sure because it will still be a small sample size of things in the grand scheme of how many are actually being bought. JMO.


Guys, seriously... if there is a thread or a post around here that you don't like... leave it be. Spreading hate and trolling people has no place in this community. Certain people may have been in the wrong, but when you troll or hate on them you get in the wrong too. Don't prolong it or add to it; let it go. If it is blatant trolling, a misplaced thread or anything that violates the ToS, report it and move along. Don't feed the trolls and don't add to the hatred. This is a nice, clean and happy community. Please, don't dirty it.

I am Gavyn the Mighty and I approve of this message.
Erogenous Jones's avatar

Combative Codger

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Gavyn the Mighty

Switching gears, yes lack of sufficient updates did kill it [zOMG!], I said as much. Without sufficient updates, having all the rings and having them all maxed out meant that there was little more to do. If you had all cards right now, at this very minute... with the rate new updates for this game are coming out... do you really think it would keep your interest anymore than zOMG! did? I don't think so... not for me at least. Sure.. it would be fun for a week or two... but games like this still take time to come out with new updates, even if the dev team is as dedicated as ours. Hence, they have to slow the game down, so to speak... keep it so there is more to play for while they work on progressive updates that will continue to keep you interested.

Long term viability of the game most certainly hinges on keeping the clients engaged. Keeping the prices where they are, and keeping cards rare will do much more, IMO, for keeping clients (HoC players) engaged in the game, as opposed to making it really easy to get all cards and making them sit and wait for updates, like zOMG! did.


As neither of us is averse to a detailed dissertation, I've snipped our previous text a bit, in order to focus on what, imo, is the crux of our divergent opinions....

We are in agreement on the fact that a property needs to evolve and keep it's clientelle engaged while doing so. I think the only real point where our perspectives differ is on whether 15k/3-4 hours play time, for a 69% chance of getting one of perhaps forty(?) Rare and Better Cards, will be viewed by people as an engaging challenge, that's well worth the time and effort, or as an insurmountable chore, requiring endless grinding and patience.
Only the people playing HoC can really answer that question, and their answers will probably depend on their personalities and situations.
And those answers will inevitably determine the long-term fate of Heralds.
People who have endless time and patience, or perhaps a substantial amount of disposable income that they choose to spend on gaming, and for whom on-line gaming is their principle source of entertainment, will very likely see the quest for completion as doable and worth the doing.
Conversely, those with limited time and/or resources, for whom on-line gaming is only one of their activities, might find the process to be too arduous, and the final goal too far away to be really attainable.
Personally, I fall into the second category.
At the moment, I have 66 of the 87(?) available Cards, those 66 Cards containing all of 4 Epics and 0 Legendary's. Based on my level of attainment to this point, it's not at all inconceivable, or even unlikely, that HoC would have to continue to dominate my recereation time for months, if not years to come before I ever got all of the original Cards, and in the intervening time, new Cards would doubtlessly arrive, pushing the window for completion out even farther.
I guess I'm just one of those people who needs to see an end to something...
Who needs to feel that the final goal is within sight, even if it is not within reach at the moment.
And to be honest, the way things are structured in HoC, I don't see me ever "Winning" the game.
Call me shallow, but when I play, I always like to think that, given a reasonable amount of dedication and effort, I can win, and as it stands, I don't feel that way about HoC.

Maybe I'm just not cut out for this type of game. wink
Gavyn the Mighty's avatar

Revered Inquisitor

Erogenous Jones
Gavyn the Mighty

Switching gears, yes lack of sufficient updates did kill it [zOMG!], I said as much. Without sufficient updates, having all the rings and having them all maxed out meant that there was little more to do. If you had all cards right now, at this very minute... with the rate new updates for this game are coming out... do you really think it would keep your interest anymore than zOMG! did? I don't think so... not for me at least. Sure.. it would be fun for a week or two... but games like this still take time to come out with new updates, even if the dev team is as dedicated as ours. Hence, they have to slow the game down, so to speak... keep it so there is more to play for while they work on progressive updates that will continue to keep you interested.

Long term viability of the game most certainly hinges on keeping the clients engaged. Keeping the prices where they are, and keeping cards rare will do much more, IMO, for keeping clients (HoC players) engaged in the game, as opposed to making it really easy to get all cards and making them sit and wait for updates, like zOMG! did.


As neither of us is averse to a detailed dissertation, I've snipped our previous text a bit, in order to focus on what, imo, is the crux of our divergent opinions....

We are in agreement on the fact that a property needs to evolve and keep it's clientelle engaged while doing so. I think the only real point where our perspectives differ is on whether 15k/3-4 hours play time, for a 69% chance of getting one of perhaps forty(?) Rare and Better Cards, will be viewed by people as an engaging challenge, that's well worth the time and effort, or as an insurmountable chore, requiring endless grinding and patience.

Only the people playing HoC can really answer that question, and their answers will probably depend on their personalities and situations. And those answers will inevitably determine the long-term fate of Heralds. People who have endless time and patience, or perhaps a substantial amount of disposable income that they choose to spend on gaming, and for whom on-line gaming is their principle source of entertainment, will very likely see the quest for completion as doable and worth the doing. Conversely, those with limited time and/or resources, for whom on-line gaming is only one of their activities, might find the process to be too arduous, and the final goal too far away to be really attainable. Personally, I fall into the second category.

At the moment, I have 66 of the 87(?) available Cards, those 66 Cards containing all of 4 Epics and 0 Legendary's. Based on my level of attainment to this point, it's not at all inconceivable, or even unlikely, that HoC would have to continue to dominate my recereation time for months, if not years to come before I ever got all of the original Cards, and in the intervening time, new Cards would doubtlessly arrive, pushing the window for completion out even farther.

I guess I'm just one of those people who needs to see an end to something... Who needs to feel that the final goal is within sight, even if it is not within reach at the moment. And to be honest, the way things are structured in HoC, I don't see me ever "Winning" the game. Call me shallow, but when I play, I always like to think that, given a reasonable amount of dedication and effort, I can win, and as it stands, I don't feel that way about HoC.

Maybe I'm just not cut out for this type of game. wink


While I agree part of the problem is in the 15k/3-4 hours of play time for a ~69% chance (which again, is based on small sample size)... you can't have 'tunnel vision' and assume amending that to be a lower play time (say 1 or 2 hours) will be an adequate solution.

By lowering the amount of play time to get a rare, you will certainly keep more interest in the game, in the short term. Players will get all of the cards they want, and be happy. But here is where you run into the entire problem of acquiring the cards far to quickly to keep up with the updates. I feel that, if the price is lowered from where it is currently, thus making it easier to acquire the rarer cards... that overall... you will not be able to make up for the long time between substantial updates [By substantial updates, I mean the solid implementation of Campaigns, Marketplace, Runes and Substantial card additions (not just 2 or 3 every now and then like these new heralds); card changes, client fixes, etc... those are not things that will keep up the interest in the game].

I feel that the price needs to stay where it is; it may discourage some players from wanting to play... but the overall core of players will stay.. and it will allow for the game to acquire new players (especially via facebook)... while still allowing for there to be something to do while waiting for the new updates. If the prices are lowered for packs, or if it was very easy to make 15k in 1-2 hour (essentially serving the same purpose)... those rare cards would no longer be 'rare', as everyone would be able to attain them much easier. that takes the allure from the game and makes it very boring when there are no new substantial updates.... it would go the way of zOMG!, even with the devs working their asses off to get those new updates. It would just take to long of time to make up for the game getting boring with nothing to quest for while we wait.

With where your cards are at (mine are similar in how many I have), sure, it may take a few months. That is a good thing, because that is how long it will take to get the substantial updates.

Again, I go back to the point of if you had all the cards right now; I know you would be happy, I would be too... but having nothing new to acquire after that would suck, it would be boring... there would be little more to play for. After the excitement of getting all the cards... you would play for a couple of weeks with your new toys... but then what would the point be to playing? Updates are still months out, and you have all the cards... the game would become repetitive with nothing to do.

Being able to get the cards too easily would not only render them not rare, but would give you little to do while waiting for updates; that is how zOMG! died, and is a main thing the devs are trying to prevent here, IMO. Lowering the prices, thus making it easier to get all of the cards will directly lead to this. That was the problem with the old packs (mainly Platinum), hence the need for the change... to improve the overall longevity and playability of the game. This keeps more desire there to play than it takes away... while lowering prices would increase short term desirability, it would, IMO, ultimately doom the game.

I think 69% (as it currently stands according to the small sample sized numbers), for the 3-4 hours of play as you've said is that reasonable amount of dedication and reasonable odds at getting a rare card. If you lessen the essence, or lessen the time... the whole idea of 'rare' cards goes out the window. It should be soemthign that you have to dedicate yourself to, which it is... it shouldn't just fall into your lap. 3-4 hours is a reasonable time, and the odds are reasonable too... both for the short term and long term future of the game.

I know it sucks to open a gold pack at 15k and only get 2* cards.. but that is the risk you take without assured 3*.. it is a gamble that you work to obtain a chance at... it is what the pack aspect of the game is based on... if you simply assure a rare or make it easier to gain, as I said... hurts the game... while it may feel good and make you happy in the short term.... it doesn't help the game.

Of course, all of this would change if they could exponentially expand the dev team and get major updates more frequently then 4 weeks, say down to 2 weeks... but that isn't feasible at all. The devs need to make an adequate prolongment of the game and its desirability so that they can keep us interested in the game while we wait for adequate and substantial new updates. Where they are currently, in the balance of time and cost for cards (arguably the one thing that keeps us interested in the game right now) is perfect for both short term and long term, without drastically affecting one or the other. If they make stuff cheaper, it helps short term and hurts long term; the converse is also true in the making prices more expensive hurts short term, but helps long term (assuming they can continue marketing the game elsewhere to continue getting new players to play their game, as the current players would likely stop playing)... that balance between short term and long term futures is essential.. and right now, I think they have it balanced well.


Guys, seriously... if there is a thread or a post around here that you don't like... leave it be. Spreading hate and trolling people has no place in this community. Certain people may have been in the wrong, but when you troll or hate on them you get in the wrong too. Don't prolong it or add to it; let it go. If it is blatant trolling, a misplaced thread or anything that violates the ToS, report it and move along. Don't feed the trolls and don't add to the hatred. This is a nice, clean and happy community. Please, don't dirty it.

I am Gavyn the Mighty and I approve of this message.
Erogenous Jones's avatar

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Gavyn the Mighty

While I agree part of the problem is in the 15k/3-4 hours of play time for a ~69% chance (which again, is based on small sample size)... you can't have 'tunnel vision' and assume amending that to be a lower play time (say 1 or 2 hours) will be an adequate solution.

By lowering the amount of play time to get a rare, you will certainly keep more interest in the game, in the short term. Players will get all of the cards they want, and be happy. But here is where you run into the entire problem of acquiring the cards far to quickly to keep up with the updates. I feel that, if the price is lowered from where it is currently, thus making it easier to acquire the rarer cards... that overall... you will not be able to make up for the long time between substantial updates [By substantial updates, I mean the solid implementation of Campaigns, Marketplace, Runes and Substantial card additions (not just 2 or 3 every now and then like these new heralds); card changes, client fixes, etc... those are not things that will keep up the interest in the game].

I feel that the price needs to stay where it is; it may discourage some players from wanting to play... but the overall core of players will stay.. and it will allow for the game to acquire new players (especially via facebook)... while still allowing for there to be something to do while waiting for the new updates. If the prices are lowered for packs, or if it was very easy to make 15k in 1-2 hour (essentially serving the same purpose)... those rare cards would no longer be 'rare', as everyone would be able to attain them much easier. that takes the allure from the game and makes it very boring when there are no new substantial updates.... it would go the way of zOMG!, even with the devs working their asses off to get those new updates. It would just take to long of time to make up for the game getting boring with nothing to quest for while we wait.

With where your cards are at (mine are similar in how many I have), sure, it may take a few months. That is a good thing, because that is how long it will take to get the substantial updates.

Again, I go back to the point of if you had all the cards right now; I know you would be happy, I would be too... but having nothing new to acquire after that would suck, it would be boring... there would be little more to play for. After the excitement of getting all the cards... you would play for a couple of weeks with your new toys... but then what would the point be to playing? Updates are still months out, and you have all the cards... the game would become repetitive with nothing to do.

Being able to get the cards too easily would not only render them not rare, but would give you little to do while waiting for updates; that is how zOMG! died, and is a main thing the devs are trying to prevent here, IMO. Lowering the prices, thus making it easier to get all of the cards will directly lead to this. That was the problem with the old packs (mainly Platinum), hence the need for the change... to improve the overall longevity and playability of the game. This keeps more desire there to play than it takes away... while lowering prices would increase short term desirability, it would, IMO, ultimately doom the game.

I think 69% (as it currently stands according to the small sample sized numbers), for the 3-4 hours of play as you've said is that reasonable amount of dedication and reasonable odds at getting a rare card. If you lessen the essence, or lessen the time... the whole idea of 'rare' cards goes out the window. It should be soemthign that you have to dedicate yourself to, which it is... it shouldn't just fall into your lap. 3-4 hours is a reasonable time, and the odds are reasonable too... both for the short term and long term future of the game.

I know it sucks to open a gold pack at 15k and only get 2* cards.. but that is the risk you take without assured 3*.. it is a gamble that you work to obtain a chance at... it is what the pack aspect of the game is based on... if you simply assure a rare or make it easier to gain, as I said... hurts the game... while it may feel good and make you happy in the short term.... it doesn't help the game.

Of course, all of this would change if they could exponentially expand the dev team and get major updates more frequently then 4 weeks, say down to 2 weeks... but that isn't feasible at all. The devs need to make an adequate prolongment of the game and its desirability so that they can keep us interested in the game while we wait for adequate and substantial new updates. Where they are currently, in the balance of time and cost for cards (arguably the one thing that keeps us interested in the game right now) is perfect for both short term and long term, without drastically affecting one or the other. If they make stuff cheaper, it helps short term and hurts long term; the converse is also true in the making prices more expensive hurts short term, but helps long term (assuming they can continue marketing the game elsewhere to continue getting new players to play their game, as the current players would likely stop playing)... that balance between short term and long term futures is essential.. and right now, I think they have it balanced well.


Guys, seriously... if there is a thread or a post around here that you don't like... leave it be. Spreading hate and trolling people has no place in this community. Certain people may have been in the wrong, but when you troll or hate on them you get in the wrong too. Don't prolong it or add to it; let it go. If it is blatant trolling, a misplaced thread or anything that violates the ToS, report it and move along. Don't feed the trolls and don't add to the hatred. This is a nice, clean and happy community. Please, don't dirty it.

I am Gavyn the Mighty and I approve of this message.


I think what it all ultimately boils down to is, "Are you a Jones or a Mighty?" wink
We obviously have different personalities and perspectives, and only time will tell which of our "types" is more common.
If you are correct, then HoC has a long and vital future, and as someone who honestly loves Gaia, I couldn't be happier.
I just probably wouldn't be around to see it. wink
If, on the other hand, folks like me prove to be more common, HoC will go the way of it's predecessor.

I hope the world proves to be "Mighty". smile
Erynnis_Tristis's avatar

Moonlight Bunny

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Gavyn the Mighty

As I said, the pack results thread gives us a good idea... something to go on. Looking at it from the standpoint of it being right or wrong, accurate or inaccurate... it is in all likelihood to be highly inaccurate, and nearly pointless to keep, solely due to the fact that you are incorporating likely not even 1% of the packs bought. While it does give us something good to go on, and a rough estimate of where things stand... which is a good thing... using it to suggest changes is illogical. There is no way that a small sample such as that can be considered statistically significant, save for pure chance. it can be a good representation, but not precise... not something to base potential changes off of.


Long term viability of the game most certainly hinges on keeping the clients engaged. Keeping the prices where they are, and keeping cards rare will do much more, IMO, for keeping clients (HoC players) engaged in the game, as opposed to making it really easy to get all cards and making them sit and wait for updates, like zOMG! did.

This is all about game continuity; making the game 'stale' like zOMG! got (which would happen if you could easily get all the cards), would cause a lot of people to stop playing... because they would have to wait for the major updates. Having to 'struggle' (which it isn't really a struggle, just couldn't think of a better word), and work to get cards, to complete your collection is something moer to keep the players interested... while the devs work on more updates. Keeping the cards rarer makes it so you have to keep working... it makes the game work and keeps it a viable entity for gaia.

Simply put, they rarity/price couplet is simply the correct way to go for this situation, regardless of how much (or how little) time it may take a given player to earn it; as it keeps plays interested in the game and allows for players to progress... while the game expends and grows slowly via updates.



I just wanted to pick up on a few things here and present a counterargument to them.

Firstly, while a small sample size may be subject to statistical variations, it does give the order of magnitute and can provide roughly accurate information. I think it's fairly representative that the chance of getting a rare or better card out of a gold pack is somewhere between 2-3 packs. And the chance of a 4 star card is between 6-7% and a 5 star card is around 2-3%.

Next you are arguing that nothing should change because if everyone could get all the cards too easily they'll disengage from HoC. Now I don't see anyone arguing that it should rain legendary cards on the playerbase. However, looking at the rough estimates above, realistically speaking, I'd like to ask how long would it take a player to obtain all 3, 4 and 5 star cards based on the above rough estimates?

There are currently 23 x 3*** cards, 13 x 4**** and 6 x 5***** cards. Just to get 6 five star cards (not guaranteeing that you'd have one of each) at roughly 3 per 100 packs, means about 200 packs. (200 packs would also average out to about 14 epic cards (again no guarantee of one of each) and about 120 rare cards, so you probably would have at least one of each 3 star card in that time. Taking as an average player earnings of 5k essence per day at 15k per pack, 200 packs would take approx. 600 days. Which works out to nearly two years. (I certainly hope the devs won't take that long before releasing an expansion to the cards.)

Even a radical reduction in the price point to 10k essence would only result in a time saving of 200 days, down to a measly 400 days, or about 1 year and 2 months.

So I don't think you are justified in disregarding how long it might take for a player to earn rare cards. As it is it's more than a little ridiculous that based on the current information, to obtain 19 epic and legendary cards a player would need to invest nearly two years of play time. (And don't forget, still wouldn't be anywhere near guaranteed to have one of each.)


Gavyn the Mighty's avatar

Revered Inquisitor

Erogenous Jones
Gavyn the Mighty

While I agree part of the problem is in the 15k/3-4 hours of play time for a ~69% chance (which again, is based on small sample size)... you can't have 'tunnel vision' and assume amending that to be a lower play time (say 1 or 2 hours) will be an adequate solution.

By lowering the amount of play time to get a rare, you will certainly keep more interest in the game, in the short term. Players will get all of the cards they want, and be happy. But here is where you run into the entire problem of acquiring the cards far to quickly to keep up with the updates. I feel that, if the price is lowered from where it is currently, thus making it easier to acquire the rarer cards... that overall... you will not be able to make up for the long time between substantial updates [By substantial updates, I mean the solid implementation of Campaigns, Marketplace, Runes and Substantial card additions (not just 2 or 3 every now and then like these new heralds); card changes, client fixes, etc... those are not things that will keep up the interest in the game].

I feel that the price needs to stay where it is; it may discourage some players from wanting to play... but the overall core of players will stay.. and it will allow for the game to acquire new players (especially via facebook)... while still allowing for there to be something to do while waiting for the new updates. If the prices are lowered for packs, or if it was very easy to make 15k in 1-2 hour (essentially serving the same purpose)... those rare cards would no longer be 'rare', as everyone would be able to attain them much easier. that takes the allure from the game and makes it very boring when there are no new substantial updates.... it would go the way of zOMG!, even with the devs working their asses off to get those new updates. It would just take to long of time to make up for the game getting boring with nothing to quest for while we wait.

With where your cards are at (mine are similar in how many I have), sure, it may take a few months. That is a good thing, because that is how long it will take to get the substantial updates.

Again, I go back to the point of if you had all the cards right now; I know you would be happy, I would be too... but having nothing new to acquire after that would suck, it would be boring... there would be little more to play for. After the excitement of getting all the cards... you would play for a couple of weeks with your new toys... but then what would the point be to playing? Updates are still months out, and you have all the cards... the game would become repetitive with nothing to do.

Being able to get the cards too easily would not only render them not rare, but would give you little to do while waiting for updates; that is how zOMG! died, and is a main thing the devs are trying to prevent here, IMO. Lowering the prices, thus making it easier to get all of the cards will directly lead to this. That was the problem with the old packs (mainly Platinum), hence the need for the change... to improve the overall longevity and playability of the game. This keeps more desire there to play than it takes away... while lowering prices would increase short term desirability, it would, IMO, ultimately doom the game.

I think 69% (as it currently stands according to the small sample sized numbers), for the 3-4 hours of play as you've said is that reasonable amount of dedication and reasonable odds at getting a rare card. If you lessen the essence, or lessen the time... the whole idea of 'rare' cards goes out the window. It should be soemthign that you have to dedicate yourself to, which it is... it shouldn't just fall into your lap. 3-4 hours is a reasonable time, and the odds are reasonable too... both for the short term and long term future of the game.

I know it sucks to open a gold pack at 15k and only get 2* cards.. but that is the risk you take without assured 3*.. it is a gamble that you work to obtain a chance at... it is what the pack aspect of the game is based on... if you simply assure a rare or make it easier to gain, as I said... hurts the game... while it may feel good and make you happy in the short term.... it doesn't help the game.

Of course, all of this would change if they could exponentially expand the dev team and get major updates more frequently then 4 weeks, say down to 2 weeks... but that isn't feasible at all. The devs need to make an adequate prolongment of the game and its desirability so that they can keep us interested in the game while we wait for adequate and substantial new updates. Where they are currently, in the balance of time and cost for cards (arguably the one thing that keeps us interested in the game right now) is perfect for both short term and long term, without drastically affecting one or the other. If they make stuff cheaper, it helps short term and hurts long term; the converse is also true in the making prices more expensive hurts short term, but helps long term (assuming they can continue marketing the game elsewhere to continue getting new players to play their game, as the current players would likely stop playing)... that balance between short term and long term futures is essential.. and right now, I think they have it balanced well.


Guys, seriously... if there is a thread or a post around here that you don't like... leave it be. Spreading hate and trolling people has no place in this community. Certain people may have been in the wrong, but when you troll or hate on them you get in the wrong too. Don't prolong it or add to it; let it go. If it is blatant trolling, a misplaced thread or anything that violates the ToS, report it and move along. Don't feed the trolls and don't add to the hatred. This is a nice, clean and happy community. Please, don't dirty it.

I am Gavyn the Mighty and I approve of this message.


I think what it all ultimately boils down to is, "Are you a Jones or a Mighty?" wink
We obviously have different personalities and perspectives, and only time will tell which of our "types" is more common.
If you are correct, then HoC has a long and vital future, and as someone who honestly loves Gaia, I couldn't be happier.
I just probably wouldn't be around to see it. wink
If, on the other hand, folks like me prove to be more common, HoC will go the way of it's predecessor.

I hope the world proves to be "Mighty". smile



Mighty Jones.

emotion_donotwant

I certainly hope that it has a long term future... I think it does with how it is set up. If they tweak it to much more (pack prices)... I just think it will either become far to easy or far to hard to get rares... which both cases would be bad.


Guys, seriously... if there is a thread or a post around here that you don't like... leave it be. Spreading hate and trolling people has no place in this community. Certain people may have been in the wrong, but when you troll or hate on them you get in the wrong too. Don't prolong it or add to it; let it go. If it is blatant trolling, a misplaced thread or anything that violates the ToS, report it and move along. Don't feed the trolls and don't add to the hatred. This is a nice, clean and happy community. Please, don't dirty it.

I am Gavyn the Mighty and I approve of this message.
Erogenous Jones's avatar

Combative Codger

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Gavyn the Mighty

Mighty Jones.

emotion_donotwant


Well, you have to admit that it has a certain "ring" to it. wink

Of course "Erogenous the Mighty", has a certain flair as well. rofl

Certianly better than "Gavyn the Jones".... stare
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...What did I just walk in on here?
Ginnjii's avatar

Conversationalist

Rogue Phoenix Fire
...What did I just walk in on here?


Shh.
Pull up a seat and watch.

Popcorn?
Rogue Phoenix Fire's avatar

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Ginnjii
Rogue Phoenix Fire
...What did I just walk in on here?


Shh.
Pull up a seat and watch.

Popcorn?


Mmm! Thanks! So are they forming couples names or what?
Ginnjii's avatar

Conversationalist

Rogue Phoenix Fire
Mmm! Thanks! So are they forming couples names or what?


It seems that way.
Either that or baby names.

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