Crafting Odds
Information here is based on
average number of attempts required to craft an item. Please consider that your mileage may vary with these results, especially while there is a relatively small dataset. Especially with formulae with lower odds, there is a lot of variance in the results, so your number of attempts may be considerably more or less than the average.
For those of you who are interested in the mechanics- I calculated number of attempts by an average of the total number of attempts. All numbers are rounded to 1 decimal place. Percentage is total crafts for that category divided by total attempts for that category times 100. Percentages rounded to nearest whole number.
Update: It seems to be plausible (although this is solely based on anecdotal evidence), that wing formulae have a lower success rate than the average 'Very Low' formulae when crafted at level. I'd love data on this, but also, you may prefer to save your gold, as interesting as data is.
At Level of Formula
Very High: 1.2 Attempts (83% Success Rate)
High: 1.5 Attempts (68% Success Rate)
Medium: 2.0 Attempts (49% Success Rate)
Low: 3.5 Attempts (29% Success Rate)
Very Low: 11.8 Attempts (9% Success Rate)
~
Special (from Levelling Chest): 1 Attempt (100 % Success Rate) (As would be expected)
Wings: 93 Attempts (1% Success Rate) (The variance on this is so incredibly high, I'm not really sure about this result)
One Level Above Level of Formula
Very High: 1.1 Attempts (93% Success Rate)
High: 1.1 Attempts (89% Success Rate)
Medium: 1.4 Attempts (71% Success Rate)
Low: (N/A not enough data)
Very Low: 1.8 Attempts (56% Success Rate)
~
Special (from Levelling Chest):
Wings: 2.8 Attempts (35% Success Rate)
Current information is based on 1,125 user submitted crafts. All filled in sections have at least 3 submissions for that category.
Frequency Histogram based on 78 user-submitted crafts at very low.
[Sorry, my Frequency Histogram was eaten by Photobucket]
If you're interested in number crunching, we have a mean of 11 crafts, a median of 9 crafts & 1 is the modal amount of crafts (closely followed by 9 and 2 attempts).
Extra! A little bit of extra information on getting data for crafting Low formulae one level above the level of the formula.
Platonix's personal notes
Formulas with a Low success rate (instead of Very Low) do not exist below level 9.
Thus, the only way to get data for crafting a Low formula one level below you
is to be Level 10 and craft any of these level-9 formulas:
K.O. Star
Kitten Star
Kanoko's Nightmares
Kanoko's Dark Reflection
Fafnir the Dragon
Lace Meow
Rose/Violet/Aquamarine Porridge Locks
Curled/Spiral Candy Horns
EIs:
Antique Shop
Alruna's Rose
Infernal Spirit
Inari's Beads
Hidden Ace
Reve Rouille
Fremere's Guard
Seracila Pendant