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If Gaia was to adjust crafting changes, what would you like to see implemented?

Crafting Cost Cap (Cannot cost more than 'x' gold, odds stay the same) 0.17105263157895 17.1% [ 91 ]
Scaling Odds (Subsequent failures increase crafting success) 0.6203007518797 62.0% [ 330 ]
Scaling Fixed Cost (Formula has a cost to craft which reduces based on Alchemy Level) 0.14661654135338 14.7% [ 78 ]
Other (Please share!) 0.06203007518797 6.2% [ 33 ]
Total Votes:[ 532 ]
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Zzyli's avatar

Rainbow Angel

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Hi guys, basically this idea has come about after hearing about people who have taken 20+ crafts to get something on low or very low odds. The thing with information like that is that anecdote tends to pass on the sensational news, while glossing over the mundane.

So, what I am hoping to do is collect some statistics on the number of attempts required for different people to craft formula either at level, or the level directly above the level of the formula they are crafting. I am neither wealthy enough, nor a frequent enough crafter to get information very quickly on my own, so I'd love for you guys to submit information to help get a bigger picture.

Also, we can maybe use this to push for changes in the chance system, if it becomes evident that there is a trend of people failing a lot of times frequently, or a few people who go over and above the average amount of attempts required by a substantial amount.

If you would like to submit data, please make sure that you are not experiencing a chain fail. Hashtable explains chain fails below
Quote:
There are two kinds of fails.. One is the "normal" fail. The other is an "error" fail.

  • The "normal" fail generally takes a bit to think and then deletes gold from your account.
  • The "error" fail loads extremely quickly, and does not delete any gold.


There are multiple causes for the "error" fail. The most common cause is "you're crafting too quickly!" (similar to forum posting, but I think the allowed rate is a bit different). Other causes include the soulbound item glitch (fixed, no?), and also if the inventory is modified while crafting.. I tried crafting 2 caches at once and one of them fizzled. rofl Not sure if there are other causes. xd

Basically, a true fail will affect your gold count, a chain fail will not. I'm only interested in collecting data based on true fails.

7/9/12- I've put in a poll with a few ideas for what we could suggest about crafting odds. Please vote & discuss. I'm sure some of you have better ideas than I do.

30/3/13- We've finally hit over 100 crafts for Medium odds!

20/10/13- I've decided to add two other special categories to our data collection. I don't expect these to expand as quickly as the main five categories. This is mostly for interest of myself and other Alchemists who have a facination with the numbers behind the system. These categories are 'Special' - the formulae which come from the levelling chests, and 'Wings'- for people crafting stages 1-9 of their Backwings quests.
Zzyli's avatar

Rainbow Angel

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Crafting Odds

Information here is based on average number of attempts required to craft an item. Please consider that your mileage may vary with these results, especially while there is a relatively small dataset. Especially with formulae with lower odds, there is a lot of variance in the results, so your number of attempts may be considerably more or less than the average.

For those of you who are interested in the mechanics- I calculated number of attempts by an average of the total number of attempts. All numbers are rounded to 1 decimal place. Percentage is total crafts for that category divided by total attempts for that category times 100. Percentages rounded to nearest whole number.

Update: It seems to be plausible (although this is solely based on anecdotal evidence), that wing formulae have a lower success rate than the average 'Very Low' formulae when crafted at level. I'd love data on this, but also, you may prefer to save your gold, as interesting as data is.

At Level of Formula
Very High: 1.2 Attempts (83% Success Rate)
High: 1.5 Attempts (68% Success Rate)
Medium: 2.0 Attempts (49% Success Rate)
Low: 3.5 Attempts (29% Success Rate)
Very Low: 11.8 Attempts (9% Success Rate)
~
Special (from Levelling Chest): 1 Attempt (100 % Success Rate) (As would be expected)
Wings: 93 Attempts (1% Success Rate) (The variance on this is so incredibly high, I'm not really sure about this result)

One Level Above Level of Formula
Very High: 1.1 Attempts (93% Success Rate)
High: 1.1 Attempts (89% Success Rate)
Medium: 1.4 Attempts (71% Success Rate)
Low: (N/A not enough data)
Very Low: 1.8 Attempts (56% Success Rate)
~
Special (from Levelling Chest):
Wings: 2.8 Attempts (35% Success Rate)

Current information is based on 1,125 user submitted crafts. All filled in sections have at least 3 submissions for that category.

Frequency Histogram based on 78 user-submitted crafts at very low.
User Image

If you're interested in number crunching, we have a mean of 11 crafts, a median of 9 crafts & 1 is the modal amount of crafts (closely followed by 9 and 2 attempts).

Extra! A little bit of extra information on getting data for crafting Low formulae one level above the level of the formula.
Platonix's personal notes
Formulas with a Low success rate (instead of Very Low) do not exist below level 9.
Thus, the only way to get data for crafting a Low formula one level below you
is to be Level 10 and craft any of these level-9 formulas:

K.O. Star
Kitten Star
Kanoko's Nightmares
Kanoko's Dark Reflection
Fafnir the Dragon
Lace Meow
Rose/Violet/Aquamarine Porridge Locks
Curled/Spiral Candy Horns
EIs:
Antique Shop
Alruna's Rose
Infernal Spirit
Inari's Beads
Hidden Ace
Reve Rouille
Fremere's Guard
Seracila Pendant
Zzyli's avatar

Rainbow Angel

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If you would like to submit data, please include the following information

[b]Formula Level[/b]:
[b]Formula Odds[/b]:
[b]Alchemist Level[/b]:
[b]Attempts Required[/b]:


Update: I've decided that it would be of interest to collect data specifically related to the crafting of Wing Quests, and (mostly so I don't mess up other data), the levelling bundles sold in the CS. If you're crafting either of these things, I'd appreciate it if you include this in your submission.
Sharacia's avatar

Fluffy Bunny

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Was crafting a Moonstone a while back...

[b]Formula Level[/b]: 5
[b]Formula Odds[/b]: Very Low
[b]Alchemist Level[/b]: 5
[b]Attempts Required[/b]: 15
Zzyli's avatar

Rainbow Angel

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Sharacia






Zzyli - Zzy as in Xylophone, Li as in leaf



Cheers! *Hands you a virtual cookie for being first volunteer*



Accentuate the positive and eliminate the negative...
Sharacia's avatar

Fluffy Bunny

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Zzyli
Sharacia






Zzyli - Zzy as in Xylophone, Li as in leaf



Cheers! *Hands you a virtual cookie for being first volunteer*



Accentuate the positive and eliminate the negative...


Yay! Cookie!

I'll post more as I craft more, that was just the one I remembered.
Zzyli's avatar

Rainbow Angel

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Sharacia


Yay! Cookie!

I'll post more as I craft more, that was just the one I remembered.






Zzyli - Zzy as in Xylophone, Li as in leaf



It's fine 3nodding . I'm interested in the numbers partially so I can think about if it's actually worth me having a shot at crafting things with Low/Very Low odds at level if I want them as future components, partially because it's a good way to push for capping failure rates, and also, just because I like numbers. Numbers are cool.


Accentuate the positive and eliminate the negative...
Sharacia's avatar

Fluffy Bunny

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Zzyli
Sharacia


Yay! Cookie!

I'll post more as I craft more, that was just the one I remembered.






Zzyli - Zzy as in Xylophone, Li as in leaf



It's fine 3nodding . I'm interested in the numbers partially so I can think about if it's actually worth me having a shot at crafting things with Low/Very Low odds at level if I want them as future components, partially because it's a good way to push for capping failure rates, and also, just because I like numbers. Numbers are cool.


Accentuate the positive and eliminate the negative...


I like numbers too! *hint*
Zzyli's avatar

Rainbow Angel

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Sharacia

I like numbers too! *hint*






Zzyli - Zzy as in Xylophone, Li as in leaf



I figured you did xd .



Accentuate the positive and eliminate the negative...
CherryblueSky's avatar

Godlike Nerd

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I only have one thing that I can report, but I hope it helps biggrin

Formula Level: Formula 4: Candy Mountain
Formula Odds: Very Low
Alchemist Level: 4
Attempts Required: 5
Zzyli's avatar

Rainbow Angel

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CherryblueSky






Zzyli - Zzy as in Xylophone, Li as in leaf



Everything helps 3nodding Thanks muchly!



Accentuate the positive and eliminate the negative...
-Shiny_Tsukkomi-'s avatar

Perfect Pitcher

I told you mine; here it is again to make it official:

Ampithere's Hypnotic Eye
Formula Level: 3
Formula Odds: Very Low
Alchemist Level: 3
Attempts Required: 10

Candy Mountain
Formula Level: 4
Formula Odds: Very Low
Alchemist Level: 4
Attempts Required: 26

I'm kinda jelly at the fellow above me who succeeded in only 5 tries... rofl

Ze3k

You were pretty lucky with AKS. Mind sharing your stats? o3o
Hashtable's avatar

Shameless Noob

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Zzyli

A lot of these people don't understand what chain fails are, so be extremely wary of data like this. ^^"

As for Shiny's question.. my Aurora took 4 tries, Truly's took 1 try.. and I remember reading about Krissim's Cream taking 6 tries.

Also, I brute forces my mule through level 1 on philosopher caches.. It costed me somewhere between 200k and 250k (so odds are maybe around 10% for very low?)
Hashtable's avatar

Shameless Noob

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Zzyli


Oh also, I brute forced my way through level 2 on pcaches... and I don't remember failing more than 4 or 5.. definitely a drastic difference. ^^
Hashtable's avatar

Shameless Noob

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Zzyli


Instead of attempts required, maybe put "gold consumed"? This way people will realize that the attempts that don't cost gold will never succeed and should not be counted. smile

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