Opening The Base Cache: Probabilities

[Platonix]

The intent of this thread is to determine the chances of getting any given colored Philosopher's Cache when you open the original Cache. If you've opened a large number of original Caches lately, let us know what mix of colored bags you got! The more data we collect the closer we'll come to the actual percentages.

Here's the data from opening a total of 16,481 base Philosopher's Caches:

2781 Aquamarine
2572 Emerald
2303 Sapphire
2025 Amethyst
1881 Garnet
1419 Ruby
1272 Topaz
0942 Diamond
0798 Gold
0488 Platinum



Can't get enough of gathering probability data? Check out these other threads!

Opening the Alchemist's Case: Probabilities
A thread that does for the Alchemist's Case what this one does for the base Philosopher's Cache.
What Are The Odds? (Collating Crafting Chances)
Check out this thread if you want to know how many times you're likely to fail when crafting a formula!

[Lovable Marionette]

These were the ones I have crafted and opened on my own.
*These are taken from my journal, which is updated often*

#1 - Gold
#2 - Amethyst
#3 - Diamond
#4 - Aquamarine
#5 - Amethyst
#6 - Diamond
#7 - Topaz
#8 - Garnet
#9 - Topaz
#10 - Garnet
#11 - Aquamarine
#12 - Aquamarine
#13 - Garnet
#14 - Aquamarine
#15 - Amethyst
#16 - Amethyst
#17 - Gold
#18 - Aquamarine
#19 - Garnet
#20 - Ruby
#21 - Ruby
#22 - Ruby

[Istoleyourtaco]

Platonix

The intent of this thread is to determine the chances of getting any given colored Philosopher's Cache when you open the original Cache. If you've opened a large number of original Caches lately, let us know what mix of colored bags you got! The more data we collect the closer we'll come to the actual percentages.

Having started this work in another thread, we've already come fairly far. Here's the data from opening a total of 833 base Philosopher's Caches:

171 Aquamarine
126 Emerald
111 Amethyst
107 Sapphire
88 Garnet
69 Topaz
67 Ruby
39 Diamond
34 Gold
21 Platinum
Last updated 6/12/12 Constipated did a thread like this and his was basically the same just a few differances but close to this . So I guess it is part luck and part quantity .

Let's see if we can gather enough data to get that poor little Platinum bar past the lip of the bag! xd

[Zzyli]

Zzyli - Zzy as in Xylophone, Li as in leaf

This is what I've currently pulled (I have a full list in my journal so I can edit at leisure).

Aquamarine 4
Emerald 1
Amethyst 3
Sapphire 1
Garnet 1
Topaz
Ruby 1
Diamond
Gold
Platinum

Accentuate the positive and eliminate the negative...

[Lei_Trigar]

*reserving, will update this post as well*

[heaven x ace]

†•╬══•↬꿈길을 걷는다 ღ
emotion_bigheart when i opened 5 i received two aquas
1 emerald
1 diamond
and 1 platinum c:
im very impatient and i hate having to collect all the trash

[Platonix]

Lovable Marionette

#1 - Gold
#2 - Amethyst
#3 - Diamond
#4 - Aquamarine
#5 - Amethyst
#6 - Diamond
#7 - Topaz
#8 - Garnet
#9 - Topaz
#10 - Garnet
#11 - Aquamarine
#12 - Aquamarine
#13 - Garnet
#14 - Aquamarine
#15 - Amethyst
#16 - Amethyst
#17 - Gold
#18 - Aquamarine
#19 - Garnet
#20 - Ruby
#21 - Ruby
#22 - Ruby

Zzyli

Aquamarine 4
Emerald 1
Amethyst 3
Sapphire 1
Garnet 1
Ruby 1

heaven x ace

two aquas
1 emerald
1 diamond
and 1 platinum c:

I've added these into the figures and graph in the first post. (Zzyli, I assume colors that don't have a number next to them are ones you haven't gotten any of yet, since you do have the number 1 next to others?)

Istoleyourtaco

Constipated did a thread like this and his was basically the same just a few differances but close to this . So I guess it is part luck and part quantity .

Yeah, his thread is actually the thread I mentioned this work starting in. CT contacted me and said I ought to make a new thread because he probably wasn't going to be updating the opening post of that thread any further.

[Zzyli]

Platonix

Yes, that is correct. Possibly I should swap over to a tally system, or a list system or something. This was more for my personal curiosity.

[Constipated Trillionaire]

emotion_brofist

[Otp]

I've made 2 large batches so far, and this is what I've got.
First batch:
1 Platinum
4 Gold
3 Diamond
8 Topaz
7 Garnet
7 Amethyst
7 Emerald
5 Sapphire
8 Ruby
10 Aquamarine

Second batch:
Platinum - 3
Gold - 2
Diamond - 2
Topaz - 6
Garnet - 4
Ruby - 4
Emerald - 7
Sapphire - 6
Aquamarine - 13
Amethyst - 13

[jadedrenee]

Just opened 7. Results:

3 aquamarine
2 emerald
1 garnet
1 topaz

[Platonix]

Otp

First batch:
1 Platinum
4 Gold
3 Diamond
8 Topaz
7 Garnet
7 Amethyst
7 Emerald
5 Sapphire
8 Ruby
10 Aquamarine

Second batch:
Platinum - 3
Gold - 2
Diamond - 2
Topaz - 6
Garnet - 4
Ruby - 4
Emerald - 7
Sapphire - 6
Aquamarine - 13
Amethyst - 13

jadedrenee

3 aquamarine
2 emerald
1 garnet
1 topaz

Added in. Good work, folks!

[worlds suckiest vendor]

Im 1/20 the way there to my 1000cache quest! (50) emotion_awesome
Just started today really.
Once I get 1000 I will open them all!

[StationWagon]

I've made:

2 sapphire
1 ruby
2 garnet
4 aquamarine
1 topaz
1 amethyst

[Christmas_chan]

Aqua 18

Emerald 14
Sapphire 14
Garnet 14

Amethyst 13

Ruby 7
Topaz 7

Diamond 6

Gold 5

Platinum 2


Total = 100
(Opened in one go.)