Welcome to Gaia! ::

Platonix's avatar

Learned Informer

19,000 Points
  • Bookworm 100
  • Hotblooded Hero 50
  • Alchemy Level 10 100
The intent of this thread is to determine the chances of getting any given colored Philosopher's Cache when you open the original Cache. If you've opened a large number of original Caches lately, let us know what mix of colored bags you got! The more data we collect the closer we'll come to the actual percentages.

Now that the Caches also contain Charms from the new feature GoFusion, that data can be found here as well. Since we just recently had a data reset, getting large volumes of data is more important than it has been in many months!

Here's the data from opening a total of 7,678 base Philosopher's Caches:
User Image - Blocked by "Display Image" Settings. Click to show.

1285 Aquamarine
1269 Emerald
1018 Sapphire
0964 Amethyst
0814 Garnet
0641 Ruby
0610 Topaz
0466 Diamond
0389 Gold
0222 Platinum
0182 Heart Charms







Some notes I should make here:
► As I predicted in the last update, the ten Colored Caches are back in their previous order.
► I have removed the pie chart's references to GoFusion's Star, Diamond, and Wildcard Charms, on the assumption that we'll never see those from Caches. I'm leaving the framework for them in my personal records just in case.
► As I also predicted in the last update, Heart Charms have gotten a big boost in appearance rate; their slice of the pie is twice as big this time as last time. (They're still rarer than Platinum Caches, though. sweatdrop )
► As noted last time, I have retired the bar chart, at least for now. I could be convinced to bring it back if people want to see it. However, this update I have brought back the Partial Pie Chart! The following displays the spread for the last roughly 2,000 Caches reported (actually 1,812 of them, since including one more entry would surpass 2k). This is mostly a way to keep watch for altered probabilities in the future.


User Image - Blocked by "Display Image" Settings. Click to show.


Can't get enough of gathering probability data? Check out these other threads!

Opening the Alchemist's Case: Probabilities
A thread that does for the Alchemist's Case what this one does for the base Philosopher's Cache.
What Are The Odds? (Collating Crafting Chances)
Check out this thread if you want to know how many times you're likely to fail when crafting a formula!
These were the ones I have crafted and opened on my own.
*These are taken from my journal, which is updated often*

#1 - Gold
#2 - Amethyst
#3 - Diamond
#4 - Aquamarine
#5 - Amethyst
#6 - Diamond
#7 - Topaz
#8 - Garnet
#9 - Topaz
#10 - Garnet
#11 - Aquamarine
#12 - Aquamarine
#13 - Garnet
#14 - Aquamarine
#15 - Amethyst
#16 - Amethyst
#17 - Gold
#18 - Aquamarine
#19 - Garnet
#20 - Ruby
#21 - Ruby
#22 - Ruby

User Image - Blocked by "Display Image" Settings. Click to show.
Istoleyourtaco's avatar

Sparkly Warlord

12,800 Points
  • 20 Wins 100
  • 50 Wins 150
  • 1 Win 50
Platonix
The intent of this thread is to determine the chances of getting any given colored Philosopher's Cache when you open the original Cache. If you've opened a large number of original Caches lately, let us know what mix of colored bags you got! The more data we collect the closer we'll come to the actual percentages.

Having started this work in another thread, we've already come fairly far. Here's the data from opening a total of 833 base Philosopher's Caches:

User Image 171 Aquamarine
126 Emerald
111 Amethyst
107 Sapphire
88 Garnet
69 Topaz
67 Ruby
39 Diamond
34 Gold
21 Platinum

Last updated 6/12/12 Constipated did a thread like this and his was basically the same just a few differances but close to this . So I guess it is part luck and part quantity .

Let's see if we can gather enough data to get that poor little Platinum bar past the lip of the bag! xd
Zzyli's avatar

Rainbow Angel

23,900 Points
  • Bookworm 100
  • Alchemy Level 10 100
  • Battle: Level 10 250
Zzyli - Zzy as in Xylophone, Li as in leaf



This is what I've currently pulled (I have a full list in my journal so I can edit at leisure).

Aquamarine 4
Emerald 1
Amethyst 3
Sapphire 1
Garnet 1
Topaz
Ruby 1
Diamond
Gold
Platinum


Accentuate the positive and eliminate the negative...
Lei_Trigar's avatar

Prince Survivor

26,000 Points
  • Storybook Royalty 500
  • Winged 100
  • Partygoer 500
*reserving, will update this post as well*
†•╬══•↬꿈길을 걷는다 ღ
emotion_bigheart when i opened 5 i received two aquas
1 emerald
1 diamond
and 1 platinum c:
im very impatient and i hate having to collect all the trash
Platonix's avatar

Learned Informer

19,000 Points
  • Bookworm 100
  • Hotblooded Hero 50
  • Alchemy Level 10 100
Lovable Marionette
#1 - Gold
#2 - Amethyst
#3 - Diamond
#4 - Aquamarine
#5 - Amethyst
#6 - Diamond
#7 - Topaz
#8 - Garnet
#9 - Topaz
#10 - Garnet
#11 - Aquamarine
#12 - Aquamarine
#13 - Garnet
#14 - Aquamarine
#15 - Amethyst
#16 - Amethyst
#17 - Gold
#18 - Aquamarine
#19 - Garnet
#20 - Ruby
#21 - Ruby
#22 - Ruby
Zzyli

Aquamarine 4
Emerald 1
Amethyst 3
Sapphire 1
Garnet 1
Ruby 1
heaven x ace
two aquas
1 emerald
1 diamond
and 1 platinum c:
I've added these into the figures and graph in the first post. (Zzyli, I assume colors that don't have a number next to them are ones you haven't gotten any of yet, since you do have the number 1 next to others?)
Istoleyourtaco
Constipated did a thread like this and his was basically the same just a few differances but close to this . So I guess it is part luck and part quantity .
Yeah, his thread is actually the thread I mentioned this work starting in. CT contacted me and said I ought to make a new thread because he probably wasn't going to be updating the opening post of that thread any further.
Zzyli's avatar

Rainbow Angel

23,900 Points
  • Bookworm 100
  • Alchemy Level 10 100
  • Battle: Level 10 250
Platonix

Yes, that is correct. Possibly I should swap over to a tally system, or a list system or something. This was more for my personal curiosity.
emotion_brofist
Otp's avatar

Sweet Citizen

15,500 Points
  • Alchemy Level 10 100
  • Jack-pot 100
  • Survivor 150
User Image - Blocked by "Display Image" Settings. Click to show.

I've made 2 large batches so far, and this is what I've got.
First batch:
1 Platinum
4 Gold
3 Diamond
8 Topaz
7 Garnet
7 Amethyst
7 Emerald
5 Sapphire
8 Ruby
10 Aquamarine

Second batch:
Platinum - 3
Gold - 2
Diamond - 2
Topaz - 6
Garnet - 4
Ruby - 4
Emerald - 7
Sapphire - 6
Aquamarine - 13
Amethyst - 13
jadedrenee's avatar

Eloquent Pirate

17,100 Points
  • Jolly Roger 50
  • Alchemy Level 10 100
  • Object of Affection 150
Just opened 7. Results:

3 aquamarine
2 emerald
1 garnet
1 topaz
Platonix's avatar

Learned Informer

19,000 Points
  • Bookworm 100
  • Hotblooded Hero 50
  • Alchemy Level 10 100
Otp
First batch:
1 Platinum
4 Gold
3 Diamond
8 Topaz
7 Garnet
7 Amethyst
7 Emerald
5 Sapphire
8 Ruby
10 Aquamarine

Second batch:
Platinum - 3
Gold - 2
Diamond - 2
Topaz - 6
Garnet - 4
Ruby - 4
Emerald - 7
Sapphire - 6
Aquamarine - 13
Amethyst - 13
jadedrenee
3 aquamarine
2 emerald
1 garnet
1 topaz
Added in. Good work, folks!
worlds suckiest vendor's avatar

Godlike Millionaire

8,650 Points
  • Winged 100
  • Alchemy Level 10 100
  • Alchemy Level 1 100
Im 1/20 the way there to my 1000cache quest! (50) emotion_awesome
Just started today really.
Once I get 1000 I will open them all!
StationWagon's avatar

Agile Rogue

I've made:

2 sapphire
1 ruby
2 garnet
4 aquamarine
1 topaz
1 amethyst
Christmas_chan's avatar

Man-Hungry Scrooge

Aqua 18

Emerald 14
Sapphire 14
Garnet 14

Amethyst 13

Ruby 7
Topaz 7

Diamond 6

Gold 5

Platinum 2


Total = 100
(Opened in one go.)

Quick Reply

Submit
Manage Your Items
Other Stuff
Get Items
Get Gaia Cash
Where Everyone Hangs Out
Other Community Areas
Virtual Spaces
Fun Stuff
Gaia's Games