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Quotable Informer

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The intent of this thread is to determine the chances of getting any given colored Philosopher's Cache when you open the original Cache. If you've opened a large number of original Caches lately, let us know what mix of colored bags you got! The more data we collect the closer we'll come to the actual percentages.

Here's the data from opening a total of 88,509 base Philosopher's Caches:

14,855 Aquamarine
13,618 Emerald
11,676 Sapphire
10,732 Amethyst
10,258 Garnet
07,838 Ruby
07,330 Topaz
05,134 Diamond
04,409 Gold
02,659 Platinum


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The following two pie charts display the most recent 1,000 and most recent 5,000 Caches reported, so we can see changing trends. (The spreadsheet formulas I'm using will usually report a little less than that depending on what sorts of reports we've gotten; for example, the right chart today shows 4,462 caches, because including one more reported group of caches would put it over its limit.) Of course, the nature of probability means we should take these pie charts with a grain of salt, but it'd be interesting to see if a trend appearing in these pie charts holds up over several updates, as that might hint at an intentional change by Gaia Staff in the balance of the Base Cache.

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Can't get enough of gathering probability data? Check out these other threads!

Opening the Alchemist's Case: Probabilities
A thread that does for the Alchemist's Case what this one does for the base Philosopher's Cache.
What Are The Odds? (Collating Crafting Chances)
Check out this thread if you want to know how many times you're likely to fail when crafting a formula!
These were the ones I have crafted and opened on my own.
*These are taken from my journal, which is updated often*

#1 - Gold
#2 - Amethyst
#3 - Diamond
#4 - Aquamarine
#5 - Amethyst
#6 - Diamond
#7 - Topaz
#8 - Garnet
#9 - Topaz
#10 - Garnet
#11 - Aquamarine
#12 - Aquamarine
#13 - Garnet
#14 - Aquamarine
#15 - Amethyst
#16 - Amethyst
#17 - Gold
#18 - Aquamarine
#19 - Garnet
#20 - Ruby
#21 - Ruby
#22 - Ruby

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Istoleyourtaco's avatar

Sparkly Warlord

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Platonix
The intent of this thread is to determine the chances of getting any given colored Philosopher's Cache when you open the original Cache. If you've opened a large number of original Caches lately, let us know what mix of colored bags you got! The more data we collect the closer we'll come to the actual percentages.

Having started this work in another thread, we've already come fairly far. Here's the data from opening a total of 833 base Philosopher's Caches:

User Image 171 Aquamarine
126 Emerald
111 Amethyst
107 Sapphire
88 Garnet
69 Topaz
67 Ruby
39 Diamond
34 Gold
21 Platinum

Last updated 6/12/12 Constipated did a thread like this and his was basically the same just a few differances but close to this . So I guess it is part luck and part quantity .

Let's see if we can gather enough data to get that poor little Platinum bar past the lip of the bag! xd
Zzyli's avatar

Rainbow Bunny

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Zzyli - Zzy as in Xylophone, Li as in leaf



This is what I've currently pulled (I have a full list in my journal so I can edit at leisure).

Aquamarine 4
Emerald 1
Amethyst 3
Sapphire 1
Garnet 1
Topaz
Ruby 1
Diamond
Gold
Platinum


Accentuate the positive and eliminate the negative...
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King Survivor

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*reserving, will update this post as well*
†•╬══•↬꿈길을 걷는다 ღ
emotion_bigheart when i opened 5 i received two aquas
1 emerald
1 diamond
and 1 platinum c:
im very impatient and i hate having to collect all the trash
Platonix's avatar

Quotable Informer

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Lovable Marionette
#1 - Gold
#2 - Amethyst
#3 - Diamond
#4 - Aquamarine
#5 - Amethyst
#6 - Diamond
#7 - Topaz
#8 - Garnet
#9 - Topaz
#10 - Garnet
#11 - Aquamarine
#12 - Aquamarine
#13 - Garnet
#14 - Aquamarine
#15 - Amethyst
#16 - Amethyst
#17 - Gold
#18 - Aquamarine
#19 - Garnet
#20 - Ruby
#21 - Ruby
#22 - Ruby
Zzyli

Aquamarine 4
Emerald 1
Amethyst 3
Sapphire 1
Garnet 1
Ruby 1
heaven x ace
two aquas
1 emerald
1 diamond
and 1 platinum c:
I've added these into the figures and graph in the first post. (Zzyli, I assume colors that don't have a number next to them are ones you haven't gotten any of yet, since you do have the number 1 next to others?)
Istoleyourtaco
Constipated did a thread like this and his was basically the same just a few differances but close to this . So I guess it is part luck and part quantity .
Yeah, his thread is actually the thread I mentioned this work starting in. CT contacted me and said I ought to make a new thread because he probably wasn't going to be updating the opening post of that thread any further.
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Rainbow Bunny

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Platonix

Yes, that is correct. Possibly I should swap over to a tally system, or a list system or something. This was more for my personal curiosity.
emotion_brofist
Otp's avatar

Sweet Citizen

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I've made 2 large batches so far, and this is what I've got.
First batch:
1 Platinum
4 Gold
3 Diamond
8 Topaz
7 Garnet
7 Amethyst
7 Emerald
5 Sapphire
8 Ruby
10 Aquamarine

Second batch:
Platinum - 3
Gold - 2
Diamond - 2
Topaz - 6
Garnet - 4
Ruby - 4
Emerald - 7
Sapphire - 6
Aquamarine - 13
Amethyst - 13
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Eloquent Pirate

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Just opened 7. Results:

3 aquamarine
2 emerald
1 garnet
1 topaz
Platonix's avatar

Quotable Informer

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Otp
First batch:
1 Platinum
4 Gold
3 Diamond
8 Topaz
7 Garnet
7 Amethyst
7 Emerald
5 Sapphire
8 Ruby
10 Aquamarine

Second batch:
Platinum - 3
Gold - 2
Diamond - 2
Topaz - 6
Garnet - 4
Ruby - 4
Emerald - 7
Sapphire - 6
Aquamarine - 13
Amethyst - 13
jadedrenee
3 aquamarine
2 emerald
1 garnet
1 topaz
Added in. Good work, folks!
worlds suckiest vendor's avatar

Godlike Millionaire

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Im 1/20 the way there to my 1000cache quest! (50) emotion_awesome
Just started today really.
Once I get 1000 I will open them all!
StationWagon's avatar

Witty Lunatic

I've made:

2 sapphire
1 ruby
2 garnet
4 aquamarine
1 topaz
1 amethyst
Christmas_chan's avatar

Man-Hungry Scrooge

Aqua 18

Emerald 14
Sapphire 14
Garnet 14

Amethyst 13

Ruby 7
Topaz 7

Diamond 6

Gold 5

Platinum 2


Total = 100
(Opened in one go.)

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