WideEyed
HI Folks:
After having read through the details regarding the odds of having a Rare Fish in one's bucket, I was hoping to clarify it just a bit....
On the first page, it says that the odds of a Rare being in any Bucket are 1 in 5000, which to me means that there's no real guarantee that anyone would ever actually hook a Rare, because the odds re-set with every Bucket.
I've read suggestions that would imply you could "expect" a Rare once in 5000 Buckets, but as I understand probability, that doesn't necessarily follow, because each Bucket is a unique instance and carries with it, the 1 in 5000 odds.
Either way, those strike me as pretty long odds, and as somebody who has trouble winning a coin toss, I'm kinda thinking that the chances of me ever hooking a Rare are so small as to be non-existent.
Also, I was wondering where the information regarding the odds came from.
Was this passed along to the OP from a Dev, or is it just speculation based on reported catches?
This was the explanation I got from late 2010 when I ask why the chance of catching a rare is 1 in 5000 buckets and this was the response from Erynnis_Tristis:
"I can tell you something about that. Way back when fishing first started there was a glitch that allowed a lot, a lot, a lot of rare fish to be caught. In some cases people were getting multiple rares in the same bucket. (This was when fishing first came out and before trophies started.)
The glitch was fixed, and a lot of people started fishing for trophies (myself included) in early '04. From January until around April '04 there were no confirmed reports of rare fish being caught during that time (although many patently spurious ones) Many fishers suspected that in order to fix the glitch the rares had been removed altogether, whether deliberately or not, and as a result a lot of questions were asked. In one thread in the Q&A an omni (I think from memory it was an omni and not a dev - but it was a while ago) posted that the chances of obtaining a rare fish in any particular bucket was 0.02%. I'm sorry I no longer have any 'proof' of this, but it is to the best of my recollection where the figure came from.
The figure of 1 in 5000 is not an 'official' probability per se, nor does it mean that in every 5000 buckets a rare will be caught (and I can personally attest to this fact ), but it is an extrapolation based on the statement made above (0.02% chance of a rare in any bucket = about 1 in 5000 chance of having a rare fish in a bucket (with the following proviso.)
Anyone wondering about rare probability should also be aware (to my knowledge, and as far as I know this hasn't changed over the years) that using 'F' bait *kills* rare fish. What that means is, if a given bucket is determined to 'have a rare fish' using whatever random chance generator Gaia uses, if the bucket is then found to be bait at 'F' grade (not F acting as D or A) then the rare fish will not be generated in that bucket. Thus killing that 1 in 5000 chance of catching a rare. The probability of a rare is determined exclusively to the bait grade requirement. This naturally means that depending on how many fishers are out there using F grade bait the actual odds of a rare are reduced to less than 0.02. If for example half the fishers playing are using F grade bait (heavy competition for the junk trophy, for example) then the odds would be halved of a rare, to 0.01% or 1 in 10,000 buckets.
I'm sure if this has changed since I last fished someone will post about it, but as far as I know that's still the case. So if you are seriously wanting to catch a rare, don't use F bait acting at 'F' grade."
I'm sure that anyone can catch a rare but like Erynnis_Tristis mentioned (and you also read that on the 1st page), F bait kills rare fish. And also when you get disconnected. In these two situations, the rare fish could be there. Or not. No one will ever know so keep fishing until you hook one when you less expect. Hooking a rare fish depends on luck and only luck and after that, it's up to your fishing skills.
You have the same chances like anyone else so don't be negative about it. Many of us who caught at least one never expected that to happen. And I believe that many reseted F baits and disconection problems were involved. In other words, don't be focus about the rare fish and just fish normally : )
