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Japan was not going to surrender. The closer we got to the mainland of Japan, the harder the fighting was getting. And not due to inherently better defenses. The soldiers were fighting ahrder.
And here's an interesting point. My friends grandfather was part of a special demolition squad. Today, they would be part of the special forces, black ops. One of their jobs was to demolish a money printing factory. The Japanese had been printing money for all the nations it planned to take over. to have a new currency. They hadbills for Korea, China, Vietnam, India, America, Canada, Mexico, and more. In fact, he has one of possibly 4 binders of every bill the Japanese were printing. A souvenir I guess.
The Japanese were quite serious about their intentions. And they intended to fulfill them.
The book Code Talkers, while it is fictitious (it follows no real person), is factual in the events and data it portrays, merely from a fictitious viewpoint. The Japanese were enmassing thousands of kamikaze planes, boats, and vehicles, in case the mainland were ever attacked. Millions of Japanese would have died, as would millions of Americans, in just the first few days of fighting.
However, there was an alternative. But it would have taken longer. bat bombs.
While PETA would hate the idea today, it was the single msot effective weapon against Japanese cities, made primarily of wood. What they were, was that a bomber would fly overhead, and a few dozen thousand bats would be released (the mechanics of how are slightly complicated. Wont bother getting into it). Each bat would have a timer and some napalm (was invented just for this purpose, but later was re purposed). They would be timed for shortly after daybreak. The bats would wake up, see the sun about to come out, and find places in the city to roost. And at sunrise, tens of thousands of fires would start across the city, in places hard to see, in these wooden structures. They would be small, but in attics, on overhangs, and other places that are hard to see, making it so the fires are well matured by the time they're noticed. While at the same time, giving residents time to escape. And the sheer number of fires would make them impossible to fight off. A single bomber would level an entire city, with notably fewer casualties. It was proven when, during a trial, a mistake happened, and the abts woke up too soon. Going to roost in the buildings at the test facility. Even knowing the fires were about to erupt, and they were prepared, the entire facility burned down within an hour. It was incredibly effective.
However, it would take time. And America wanted to show it was the strongest. That it was not to be messed with. And, I believe, they wanted to get even for Pearl Harbor. So as the project neared its completion and was ready to be done on a large scale, it was shelved. A few months later, the Bombs were dropped.
So were they one of the best options? Of course. Thousands, instead of millions. But they weren't the only choice. Japan would have been damaged far more, but far fewer would have died, if the abt bombs were used. Not to mention, the Cold War could have been avoided, if the bombs were kept secret. Which, based on how well they kept the entire project secret, could have been done fairly easily.
I would like to point out that every historian and military commander says that invasion of the Japanese mainland, even with multiple nations, was not an option. Saying ten million Americans would die in the attempt was a number smaller than it really would be (how many battles have we really fought where we lost less than expected?). the entire population was brainwashed to fear and hate the Americans. And they had years to build up an incredibly strong homeland security. Not to mention, attacking an island nation is one of the hardest offensive battles to be fought. Point in case, the Nazi's being unable to attack England directly (Operation Sealion anyone?), even though they had one fo the finest military forces in the world.
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